Trade Deadline Predictions for the Sox

[User Name]

I'm one of the few Red Sox fans I know that would consider having Papelbon back. This is ONLY because I think at this point he would come at an all time low cost, but it probably would still be too much realistically. There's no doubt in my mind that Wilson would be the best opportunity just because it would only take money and not losing prospects or any major league players.

 

I'm of the opinion that we can splash some money on Wilson to get him here without being completely irresponsible. A quick google search told me some of the teams interested and we can realistically outbid and/or offer a more appealing option than mostly all of them. Unless he just wants to stay in San Fran, which I guess would be realistic.

 

The Tigers just traded for Vera, so they're one team out of the hunt for a closer.

[Disciples_of_Mueller]

 

Passan says we are in a strong position to acquire Peavy.

[mvp 78]

"Red Sox very much in Jake Peavy sweepstakes. Wouldn't exactly say they're favorites but between motivation and prospects in strong position."

[Disciples_of_Mueller]

"Red Sox very much in Jake Peavy sweepstakes. Wouldn't exactly say they're favorites but between motivation and prospects in strong position."

 

Maybe not favorites, but sounds like pretty damn close to it. Still not sure how I feel about Peavy coming here. Obviously, cost will come down as the deadline nears, but let's say Buchholz is back September 1 (I have my doubts). Then we have 6 starters. Who goes to the bullpen? With the way Doubront has been pitching, it's not him, and with Dempster's $13.25M/year, it isn't him.

[sk7326]

Maybe not favorites, but sounds like pretty damn close to it. Still not sure how I feel about Peavy coming here. Obviously, cost will come down as the deadline nears, but let's say Buchholz is back September 1 (I have my doubts). Then we have 6 starters. Who goes to the bullpen? With the way Doubront has been pitching, it's not him, and with Dempster's $13.25M/year, it isn't him.

 

Always better off having more. Coming down the stretch the salaries don't matter. It's sunk cost. Also, with Buchholz coming back (assuming), I could see doing a little 6-man rotation, especially since makeup dates and such can gobble up off days from here on out.

[sk7326]

I'm one of the few Red Sox fans I know that would consider having Papelbon back. This is ONLY because I think at this point he would come at an all time low cost, but it probably would still be too much realistically. There's no doubt in my mind that Wilson would be the best opportunity just because it would only take money and not losing prospects or any major league players.

 

I'm of the opinion that we can splash some money on Wilson to get him here without being completely irresponsible. A quick google search told me some of the teams interested and we can realistically outbid and/or offer a more appealing option than mostly all of them. Unless he just wants to stay in San Fran, which I guess would be realistic.

 

The Tigers just traded for Vera, so they're one team out of the hunt for a closer.

 

Gotta be careful with eyeing relievers. Performance is so wildly fluctuating that I don't consider any of them to really be dependable. Also, have to watch what we pay for 20 innings of value.

[sk7326]

Edes reporting Sox still very seriously kicking tires on Cliff Lee - which is just good business. Of course he is 35 so you don't bet the farm on him - you have to use your ability to take his contract as a carrot here. No way do you give up Boegarts, Bradley or Cecchini for him. Owens? I'd prefer not - but he is at least arguable (prospect ranking largely upside and projection based - he still has a quite a bit of actual development before the results match the stuff). But a couple of the Merrero-Barnes tier guys should be enough if Amaro gets realistic about this.

[mvp 78]

Uh...

 

@alexspeier: Henry Owens' amazing run of no-hit innings reached 19 1/3 before he finally gave up his first hit in the 6th. Nearly untouchable in trades.

[sk7326]

Uh...

 

@alexspeier: Henry Owens' amazing run of no-hit innings reached 19 1/3 before he finally gave up his first hit in the 6th. Nearly untouchable in trades.

 

Note: "Nearly" untouchable. A half step behind the other prospects because of how much less predictable pitchers are in general. Results have definitely been coming around, I phrased that wrong. Control has not been great and still in Single-A. I wouldn't deal him without a really good guy coming back - but pitchers below AA are easier to talk than position players at AA and above.

[Orange Juiced]

Edes reporting Sox still very seriously kicking tires on Cliff Lee - which is just good business. Of course he is 35 so you don't bet the farm on him - you have to use your ability to take his contract as a carrot here. No way do you give up Boegarts, Bradley or Cecchini for him. Owens? I'd prefer not - but he is at least arguable (prospect ranking largely upside and projection based - he still has a quite a bit of actual development before the results match the stuff). But a couple of the Merrero-Barnes tier guys should be enough if Amaro gets realistic about this.

 

Ranaudo, Brentz, Britton, and Middlebrooks for Lee and Michael Young (though I don't want Young...it frees him from Philly's payroll for the rest of the year).

 

Middlebrooks becomes Philly's 3b for the future. Ranaudo and Britton help their pitching staff. Brentz is a decent RH power bat in the OF. The Sox get a 3b who will put up much better numbers than Iglesias will and a bona-fide ace SP.

 

(But I'm already on record as thinking that the Sox will not get Lee)

[italstallianion]

Ranaudo, Brentz, Britton, and Middlebrooks for Lee and Michael Young (though I don't want Young...it frees him from Philly's payroll for the rest of the year).

 

Middlebrooks becomes Philly's 3b for the future. Ranaudo and Britton help their pitching staff. Brentz is a decent RH power bat in the OF. The Sox get a 3b who will put up much better numbers than Iglesias will and a bona-fide ace SP.

 

(But I'm already on record as thinking that the Sox will not get Lee)

 

 

I'd be happy with that deal, really happy if we didn't take Young and substituted the Phillies paying some of Lee's salary, but Brentz is injured (out for the year I think) so he'd no longer be a useful trade piece.

[Orange Juiced]

I'd be happy with that deal, really happy if we didn't take Young and substituted the Phillies paying some of Lee's salary, but Brentz is injured (out for the year I think) so he'd no longer be a useful trade piece.

 

Ah, I didn't know that about Brentz.

[mvp 78]

Noticing more talk about Aramis Ramirez. Would anyone want him? I'd take him over Young for sure.

[Orange Juiced]

From rotoworld.com:

 

"CBS Sports' Jon Heyman hears that the asking price for left-hander Cliff Lee is "extremely high."

"[Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. is] telling people it'll take you three or four best prospects, plus you'd have to take all the money," a competing executive told CBS Sports on Monday. Lee, 34, is owed $25 million in 2014, another $25 million in 2015, and he carries a $27.5 million vesting option (or a $12.5 million buyout) for 2016. He seems likely to ultimately stay put in Philadelphia."

 

Yeah for that, no thanks. I like Lee a lot, but that's WAY too much. Let Philly keep him and miss the playoffs by 8 games.

[italstallianion]

....and let him pay Lee 25+ million for the next few years. If I'm paying all of that absurd money that Philly stupidly agreed to with Lee, then I'm not offering a prospect in the top 10.

[sk7326]

Noticing more talk about Aramis Ramirez. Would anyone want him? I'd take him over Young for sure.

 

No. I'd rather invest the money elsewhere and take a chance with Boegarts.

[sk7326]

From rotoworld.com:

 

"CBS Sports' Jon Heyman hears that the asking price for left-hander Cliff Lee is "extremely high."

"[Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. is] telling people it'll take you three or four best prospects, plus you'd have to take all the money," a competing executive told CBS Sports on Monday. Lee, 34, is owed $25 million in 2014, another $25 million in 2015, and he carries a $27.5 million vesting option (or a $12.5 million buyout) for 2016. He seems likely to ultimately stay put in Philadelphia."

 

Yeah for that, no thanks. I like Lee a lot, but that's WAY too much. Let Philly keep him and miss the playoffs by 8 games.

 

It's a funny piece of game theory. Lee is actually not that unlikely to be worth the money - easy arm action, very efficient. But the Phillies are very unrealistic about their own position here. Lee is not going to draw that sort of offer (well, he shouldn't) ... even if he is a fringy #1/super #2 sort. Contract made sense at the time - veteran team, well within its championship window. Amaro did not account for the team getting old and hurt at the same time, and did not spend enough time trying to get younger.

[italstallianion]

Given Lee's contract I think there'd only be a few potential buyers, and without that competition I think that hurts Philly's chances of getting full value. But even then I think they can still get a very good package for Lee (especially if they eat some money) which could help them in the long run since they will likely have to rebuild in the face of Howard's disastrous contract, Papelbon's slightly less disastrous contract, and an aging Halladay/Utley.

[italstallianion]

Noticing more talk about Aramis Ramirez. Would anyone want him? I'd take him over Young for sure.

 

 

It depends on the cost. But assuming his defense is better than Young's then he's worth a flyer. I'd "click here" for more details.

[dupree]

The Giants are kicking the tires on Tim Lincecum so if i were gonna pay big money for a pitcher who is younger and has a higher ceiling in my opinion id rather Tim than Cliff as far the long run if the Sox could sign him to an extension. But Cliff would prolly help this club better in the playoff but i think he would just cost to much which in the long run would not be worth it.

[italstallianion]

That depends on how good our pitching coach is relative to the others in the league. I have no idea how good he is at correction motion's and getting better results from players than they had in recent years.

[sk7326]

The Giants are kicking the tires on Tim Lincecum so if i were gonna pay big money for a pitcher who is younger and has a higher ceiling in my opinion id rather Tim than Cliff as far the long run if the Sox could sign him to an extension. But Cliff would prolly help this club better in the playoff but i think he would just cost to much which in the long run would not be worth it.

 

Tim's velocity drop has been truly alarming. No-no aside he has fallen far from his back to back Cy Young days. Lincecum could realistically not really be a serious rotation worthy starter in the next year or two. Lee is far less risky, even with advanced age.

[sk7326]

That depends on how good our pitching coach is relative to the others in the league. I have no idea how good he is at correction motion's and getting better results from players than they had in recent years.

 

Well coaching has not been an issue so much as health. Sox pitching coaches have been good except for last year when the coaching staff was run by a bozo. Farrell hired a lower profile name than was out there probably because he could help set the program on that side of the ball. Farrell/Nieves have shown some promise in undoing some of Lester's May-June issues as well as helping Doubront harness his wildness (somewhat).

[dupree]

I hope that Doubrant harnesses that wildness tonite so that the Sox can beat David Price who has been lights out since coming off the DL. Its gonna be a good LHP battle i just hope we come out on top.

[jung]

Well Lee is not going to come available. However all of the starting pitching options are way overpriced for what they are and most if not all are copies of something the Sox already have. Lee would be the only guy that would represent a true upgrade as opposed to just another arm. I just don't think the Sox should pay the price for just another arm.

 

If Peavy's price gets down to just eating his contract and some prospect that the Sox can see their way to move (maybe Merrero????), that would be fine. The Sox could probably move some guys around and get a pen arm out of the deal with Peavy moving into the rotation. I just don't think Peavy's price will slide that far. If it does, I am not sure I would have much to complain about if the Sox did that deal.

 

That would still leave them in need of one more pen arm, like Hochevar for example.

[dupree]

Its funny how Papelbon wants to come back to Boston but Boston dont want him back.

 

Only way i can see Ben or anyone making a move for Pap would be that the Phillies have to eat a lot of his contract and need mid tier prospect back. But i dont see it happening the Phillies will be stuck with him. But his comments over the weekend may have the Phillies want to move him because he said he wants out but who knows.

[mvp 78]

@nickcafardo: Red Sox and Phillies have engaged in talks on Cliff Lee and Michael Young, but Sox won't deal top prospects.

[User Name]

Oh God this is awesome. Phillies fans up in arms against Papelbon, who has an 80% save conversion rate this season. Rivera highway detour?

[BSN07]

@nickcafardo: Red Sox and Phillies have engaged in talks on Cliff Lee and Michael Young, but Sox won't deal top prospects.

 

If it's not for top prospects it be worth it. Having Lee let's them shop another SP this off season as well. It's a lot of money tho. At least it would be short term. I'm gonna have to see the names in the package going to Philly before I could totally jump on a deal for those two.

[BornToRun]

Hypothetical here. What would the opinion be on a deal that sent us Cliff Lee for less talent on the condition that we take Papelbon's contract on as well? We take on a good chunk of the money and in exchange, we give up less in the talent department.