Trades before the deadline?

[a700hitter]

The problem with Bailey isn't mechanics, chicken and beer, his head, or any of that.

 

The problem with Bailey is that he is, and always has been a fly ball pitcher. League Average fly ball rate from 09-13 (since Bailey has been in the league) is 36%. Bailey has a career 46.4% FB rate. That FB rate works in a monster park with huge foul ball territory like Oakland and the AL West (other than Texas). That formula does not work in a place like Boston and the AL East, particularly in Yankee Stadium and Fenway.

 

You can certainly fault the FO for acquiring a pitcher whose peripherals don't exactly line up with what works in Boston and the band boxes of the AL East, that's more than fair. But to say he's not a proven closer when he came to Boston with 75 saves and a career 2.01 ERA is simply not true.

 

What he's going through right now is a statistical blip where his HR/FB is about double league average, and his actually giving up over 60% FB. Regression to the mean is imminent, meaning his FB% will decline drastically and his HR/FB will normalize as well. Whether the Sox want to ride this rocky patch through and wait for the bright side to show up or not is an entirely different question.

 

But lets not take away his credentials of being a proven closer. 2x All Star and ROY. He's not some bum.

And when is the last time that he put up a full season as a closer. It has been some time. He had a good full season or two as a closer, but it has been some time since he has pitched a successful full season. When is the last time he put up an inning count that hit 50 innings. It's been a while. He needs to prove himself. His cumulative career stats mean nothing, because they are essentially a compilation of partial season stats due to all the time missed for injury. He needs to prove himself as a guy who can take the ball all season long.

 

It's like the debate whether Buchholz is an ace. He sure pitches like an ace when healthy, but aces pitch 200 innings. He hasn"t done that in his career. He has been phenomenal this year, but now we have some missed turns due (o "sleeping injuries" so who knows if he gets to 200 innings this year. One thing is for certain, although Buch hasn't solidified his reputation as an ace, I am light years more confident when Buch is on the hill than when Bailey gets the call. Like Buch has yet to prove he is an ace, Bailey needs to stay healthy and prove that he can still be an everyday closer.

 

If we want to get caught up in the semantics of "proved", let me clarify. While he has proved in the past that he can be a good closer when healthy, it has been several years since he has done the job as a full time closer for an entire season. He has to prove that he can do it again.

[iortiz]

Lol C'mon men, the fried chicken and beer thing was a sarcastic/joke comment in order to "complement" the possible causes of his failure since he arrived to Boston. We all know that he wasn't in 11, again, it was sarcastic.

 

Bottom Line: In order to be reliable you need consistency and durability, things that Bailey hasn't shown for whatever reason, since he arrived to Boston. That is the fact gentlemen.

[mvp 78]

Well, since 09, Paps did consistently blow games when it mattered the most (ALDS vs Angels, game 162 vs O's).

 

Is that the consistency you're looking for?

[iortiz]

And when is the last time that he put up a full season as a closer. It has been some time. He had a good full season or two as a closer, but it has been some time since he has pitched a successful full season. When is the last time he put up an inning count that hit 50 innings. It's been a while. He needs to prove himself. His cumulative career stats mean nothing, because they are essentially a compilation of partial season stats due to all the time missed for injury. He needs to prove himself as a guy who can take the ball all season long.

 

It's like the debate whether Buchholz is an ace. He sure pitches like an ace when healthy, but aces pitch 200 innings. He hasn"t done that in his career. He has been phenomenal this year, but now we have some missed turns due (o "sleeping injuries" so who knows if he gets to 200 innings this year. One thing is for certain, although Buch hasn't solidified his reputation as an ace, I am light years more confident when Buch is on the hill than when Bailey gets the call. Like Buch has yet to prove he is an ace, Bailey needs to stay healthy and prove that he can still be an everyday closer.

 

If we want to get caught up in the semantics of "proved", let me clarify. While he has proved in the past that he can be a good closer when healthy, it has been several years since he has done the job as a full time closer for an entire season. He has to prove that he can do it again.

 

Media, experts, FO, fans, and several posters here (look at the pool) have concerns about him. If he is reliable why all these concerns and questions marks surround him... Why? Maybe because he is not reliable at this point?

 

Do not take me wrong, I want him to bounce back but at this point sounds more like a good wish than a real possibility. We'll see.

[iortiz]

Well, since 09, Paps did consistently blow games when it mattered the most (ALDS vs Angels, game 162 vs O's).

 

Is that the consistency you're looking for?

 

Yup, a 2.32 ERA player with 60+ IP and 35+ SV through 9 years is the consistency I'm looking for, but unfoutunatly ain't gonna happen.

 

Not sure why Papelbon and Bailey are in the same discussion, is not even fair.

 

BTW do you want another 3 pages of discussion of why Papelbon was/is so good? Or you are being a dick... again.

[a700hitter]

Lol C'mon men, the fried chicken and beer thing was a sarcastic/joke comment in order to "complement" the possible causes of his failure since he arrived to Boston. We all know that he wasn't in 11, again, it was sarcastic.

 

Bottom Line: In order to be reliable you need consistency and durability, things that Bailey hasn't shown for whatever reason, since he arrived to Boston. That is the fact gentlemen.

It's funny that you are able to master the subtleties of communicating in a second language when so much goes over the heads of those who speak it as a native tongue.

[a700hitter]

Media, experts, FO, fans, and several posters here (look at the pool) have concerns about him. If he is reliable why all these concerns and questions marks surround him... Why? Maybe because he is not reliable at this point?

 

Do not take me wrong, I want him to bounce back but at this point sounds more like a good wish than a real possibility. We'll see.

All anyone needs to do is to check into a Red Sox telecast to understand that management has concerns about the team's need for a closer. Dipre usually defends the FO pointing out that they know more about running a baseball team than the fans. Yet, when we share the organization's doubts about the closer situation, we still get criticized. Puzzling.

[a700hitter]

Well, since 09, Paps did consistently blow games when it mattered the most (ALDS vs Angels, game 162 vs O's).

 

Is that the consistency you're looking for?

 

Cherrypicking a bit?

[mvp 78]

Yup, a 2.32 ERA player with 60+ IP and 35+ SV through 9 years is the consistency I'm looking for, but unfoutunatly ain't gonna happen.

 

Not sure why Papelbon and Bailey are in the same discussion, is not even fair.

 

BTW do you want another 3 pages of discussion of why Papelbon was/is so good? Or you are being a dick... again.

 

So he didn't suck a big fat one in the ALDS and game 162? Is that your assertion?

 

Bailey has had injury issues. When healthy, the difference between Paps and Bailey is not worth the price the Phillies would want the Sox to pay. You are pining for a transaction that would hurt the organization more than help it.

 

And that's not being a dick. I've been overly easy on you, especially sonce you don't take the time to read and understand someone else's posts.

[mvp 78]

All anyone needs to do is to check into a Red Sox telecast to understand that management has concerns about the team's need for a closer. Dipre usually defends the FO pointing out that they know more about running a baseball team than the fans. Yet, when we share the organization's doubts about the closer situation, we still get criticized. Puzzling.

 

Try taking off those "pink glasses" for once. If this definition of mastery was used for the Sox, you would have apparently called 2012 a success.

[mvp 78]

Cherrypicking a bit?

 

So bringing up THE most important games of the year and his lack of success is cherry picking? Um, ok. I guess the post season doesn't matter anymore. :dunno:

[a700hitter]

So bringing up THE most important games of the year and his lack of success is cherry picking? Um, ok. I guess the post season doesn't matter anymore. :dunno:

While we are at it, let's disparage Mo's career for blowing the save and losing the final game of the playoffs in 1997 and the World Series in 2001. Yes, it is cherrypicking. The guy puts up 30-35 saves every year with very few blown saves. Pencil in the numbers. That is consistency. The only thing consistent about Bailey is that he hits the DL every single year.

[a700hitter]

Try taking off those "pink glasses" for once. If this definition of mastery was used for the Sox, you would have apparently called 2012 a success.

Is this responsive at all to the post that you quoted? Arguing to argue maybe?

[iortiz]

Cherrypicking a bit?

 

Pap just blew a game in Philly yesterday and made me lose money in a parlay bet and Pal lost some points in his fantasy team. Wonder if Philly's FO/fans or fantasy gamers are concern about him. The answer is most likely no, since he has been consistent and reliable not only this season but for so many years. At least I wouldn't drop him in my fantasy team, but just in case, hey Pal, if you want to trade Pap let me know

 

BTW Notice that wasn't me who brought Papelbon to the discussion

[a700hitter]

Pap just blew a game in Philly yesterday and made me lose money in a parlay bet and Pal lost some points in his fantasy team. Wonder if Philly's FO/fans or fantasy gamers are concern about him. The answer is most likely no, since he has been consistent and reliable not only this season but for so many years. At least I wouldn't drop him in my fantasy team, but just in case, hey Pal, if you don't want to trade Pap let me know

 

BTW Notice that wasn't me who brought Papelbon to the discussion

How could that be? It has been noted that your interest in Papelbon is borders on an unhealthy obsession.

[Bellhorn04]

So bringing up THE most important games of the year and his lack of success is cherry picking? Um, ok. I guess the post season doesn't matter anymore. :dunno:

 

C'mon MVP, if we're going to do this, then Rivera blew two of the biggest games of his career too, probably costing the Yankees two more titles (2001 and 2004).

[a700hitter]

Iortiz, I think we should capitulate here. Let's just agree with their argument and concede the following points:

 

• Bailey is our answer at closer
  
• The FO should stop all their efforts looking at alternatives for closer
  
• Papelbon sucks
  
• There's no way we would want Papelbon to return to the Red Sox under any circumstances
  
• The Blue Jays suck and are clearly no threat at all- they are the doormats of the ALE
  
• Jose Reyes sucks and the Jays should hope that he stays on the DL

[a700hitter]

C'mon MVP, if we're going to do this, then Rivera blew two of the biggest games of his career too, probably costing the Yankees two more titles (2001 and 2004).

and 1997

[iortiz]

So he didn't suck a big fat one in the ALDS and game 162? Is that your assertion?

 

Bailey has had injury issues. When healthy, the difference between Paps and Bailey is not worth the price the Phillies would want the Sox to pay. You are pining for a transaction that would hurt the organization more than help it.

 

And that's not being a dick. I've been overly easy on you, especially sonce you don't take the time to read and understand someone else's posts.

 

That's the problem. He can't stay healthy. Seems like He has a DL membership free pass.

 

And naaaah, Pap's contract wouldn't have hurt this organization at all, just the opposite. Look how much you have spent in closers since Pap walked and see the results --- failure and overpays. On the other hand see the results of Pap in Philly thus far --success; every penny spent on him has worth thus far.

[Standing Room]

Iortiz, I think we should capitulate here. Let's just agree with their argument and concede the following points:

 

• Bailey is our answer at closer
  
• The FO should stop all their efforts looking at alternatives for closer
  
• Papelbon sucks
  
• There's no way we would want Papelbon to return to the Red Sox under any circumstances
  
• The Blue Jays suck and are clearly no threat at all- they are the doormats of the ALE
  
• Jose Reyes sucks and the Jays should hope that he stays on the DL

 

This is another post with zero substance. No one is saying Papelbon sucks, or that the front office shouldn't consider replacing Bailey if he continues to struggle. And multiple posters have said they would take Papelbon back if he didn't cost so much.

[iortiz]

Iortiz, I think we should capitulate here. Let's just agree with their argument and concede the following points:

 

• Bailey is our answer at closer
  
• The FO should stop all their efforts looking at alternatives for closer
  
• Papelbon sucks
  
• There's no way we would want Papelbon to return to the Red Sox under any circumstances
  
• The Blue Jays suck and are clearly no threat at all- they are the doormats of the ALE
  
• Jose Reyes sucks and the Jays should hope that he stays on the DL

 

Ok, Conceded.

 

Seriously, if we had a good closer, not a great one (like Pap), just a good one, and if this team keeps playing like this, we would be almost unbeatable.

[iortiz]

This is another post with zero substance. No one is saying Papelbon sucks, or that the front office shouldn't consider replacing Bailey if he continues to struggle. And multiple posters have said they would take Papelbon back if he didn't cost so much.

 

Cmon man! That was kind of sarcastic, but still some people here think that way, though. Don't believe me? Look at your recent posts about Pap in the other threads.

[a700hitter]

Cmon man! That was kind of sarcastic, but still some people here think that way, though. Don't believe me? Look at your recent posts about Pap in the other threads.

Even after we concede on all counts these guys aren't happy! What point is it that they are making that we are still disagreeing with after our list of concessions? Is there some other point that we should be conceding? Do they even know what point they are trying to make?

[iortiz]

Even after we concede on all counts these guys aren't happy! What point is it that they are making that we are still disagreeing with after our list of concessions? Is there some other point that we should be conceding? Do they even know what point they are trying to make?

 

 

you are a very funny guy

 

[a700hitter]

you are a very funny guy

 

That is one of may favorite movie scenes. "Funny how?"

[SoxFanForsyth]

Ok, Conceded.

 

Seriously, if we had a good closer, not a great one (like Pap), just a good one, and if this team keeps playing like this, we would be almost unbeatable.

 

Just to be clear, the Red Sox are 20-3 in games in which Bailey has made an appearance. They are 3-0 in games where he's blown saves. He's had 4 Holds and 8 Saves in 15 chances (80% success rate). League average Save % is 70%.

 

On the flip side, there is a some compelling evidence that shows that if you're not comfortable with Bailey, you need to look externally.

 

The cast that the Red Sox have put together in the bullpen thus far have converted just 13 of their 22 Save Opportunities. That's a 59% Save Percentage, and 9 blown saves. That's good for 26th in the MLB.

 

So, for those thinking that there would be a seamless transition to Miller, Tazawa, or Uehara, those numbers may surprise you a bit.

 

Now, Hanrahan was responsible for 2 of the BLSV and 4 of the Saves, so taking his numbers out actually enhances the problem. Without Hanrahan, the Sox have converted 9 Saves in 16 opportunities (56.25%).

[a700hitter]

Just to be clear, the Red Sox are 20-3 in games in which Bailey has made an appearance. They are 3-0 in games where he's blown saves. He's had 4 Holds and 8 Saves in 15 chances (80% success rate). League average Save % is 70%.

 

On the flip side, there is a some compelling evidence that shows that if you're not comfortable with Bailey, you need to look externally.

 

The cast that the Red Sox have put together in the bullpen thus far have converted just 13 of their 22 Save Opportunities. That's a 59% Save Percentage, and 9 blown saves. That's good for 26th in the MLB.

 

So, for those thinking that there would be a seamless transition to Miller, Tazawa, or Uehara, those numbers may surprise you a bit.

 

Now, Hanrahan was responsible for 2 of the BLSV and 4 of the Saves, so taking his numbers out actually enhances the problem. Without Hanrahan, the Sox have converted 9 Saves in 16 opportunities (56.25%).

So, Bailey is or isn't the answer?

[User Name]

That's the problem. He can't stay healthy. Seems like He has a DL membership free pass.

 

And naaaah, Pap's contract wouldn't have hurt this organization at all, just the opposite. Look how much you have spent in closers since Pap walked and see the results --- failure and overpays. On the other hand see the results of Pap in Philly thus far --success; every penny spent on him has worth thus far.

 

Right, because spending that much money on Papelbon instead of proceeding like they did this offseason was a better idea. The very idea makes no sense.

[Bellhorn04]

Just to be clear, the Red Sox are 20-3 in games in which Bailey has made an appearance. They are 3-0 in games where he's blown saves. He's had 4 Holds and 8 Saves in 15 chances (80% success rate). League average Save % is 70%.

 

On the flip side, there is a some compelling evidence that shows that if you're not comfortable with Bailey, you need to look externally.

 

The cast that the Red Sox have put together in the bullpen thus far have converted just 13 of their 22 Save Opportunities. That's a 59% Save Percentage, and 9 blown saves. That's good for 26th in the MLB.

 

So, for those thinking that there would be a seamless transition to Miller, Tazawa, or Uehara, those numbers may surprise you a bit.

 

Now, Hanrahan was responsible for 2 of the BLSV and 4 of the Saves, so taking his numbers out actually enhances the problem. Without Hanrahan, the Sox have converted 9 Saves in 16 opportunities (56.25%).

 

I hate the way they do those stats though. They count 'blown holds' the same as 'blown saves' but they don't add saves and holds together.

 

For example they show Tazawa as having 3 blown saves, but 2 of those were really blown holds where he came into the game in the 7th. It was a 'save opportunity', but only if he had pitched the 7th, 8th and 9th.

 

Look into it and you'll see what I mean.

[iortiz]

Just to be clear, the Red Sox are 20-3 in games in which Bailey has made an appearance. They are 3-0 in games where he's blown saves. He's had 4 Holds and 8 Saves in 15 chances (80% success rate). League average Save % is 70%.

 

On the flip side, there is a some compelling evidence that shows that if you're not comfortable with Bailey, you need to look externally.

 

The cast that the Red Sox have put together in the bullpen thus far have converted just 13 of their 22 Save Opportunities. That's a 59% Save Percentage, and 9 blown saves. That's good for 26th in the MLB.

 

So, for those thinking that there would be a seamless transition to Miller, Tazawa, or Uehara, those numbers may surprise you a bit.

 

Now, Hanrahan was responsible for 2 of the BLSV and 4 of the Saves, so taking his numbers out actually enhances the problem. Without Hanrahan, the Sox have converted 9 Saves in 16 opportunities (56.25%).

Well, seems that we are winning despite Bailey.