Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

[example1]

Barnes has my interest, but he has to dominate at AA before he can be taken seriously as a future #1. De La Rosa is probably a bullpen guy. The rest are not anything to cause excitement. I don't think they even havre any trade value.

 

You said they don't have any trade value. Webster and De La Rosa are more highly rated as prospects than most of the MLB ready players I listed ever were. Just saying.

 

You still haven't cited anything that gives any indication that your evaluation is anything more than just pessimistic speculation. Not one reputable person who says Webster or De La Rosa aren't worth anything.

 

Neither of us know what the market holds or where teams are willing to move their best pitchers. That doesn't mean it can't or won't happen. It isn't my job to know when or where that will happen.

 

I'm not sure I see what your alternative is either. Apparently there's some #1 out there that they should be going after OTHER than trying to acquire a young pitcher who will be there eventually. Is there an ace who might be available that we haven't been talking about?

[a700hitter]

You said they don't have any trade value. Webster and De La Rosa are more highly rated as prospects than most of the MLB ready players I listed ever were. Just saying.

 

You still haven't cited anything that gives any indication that your evaluation is anything more than just pessimistic speculation. Not one reputable person who says Webster or De La Rosa aren't worth anything.

 

Neither of us know what the market holds or where teams are willing to move their best pitchers. That doesn't mean it can't or won't happen. It isn't my job to know when or where that will happen.

 

I'm not sure I see what your alternative is either. Apparently there's some #1 out there that they should be going after OTHER than trying to acquire a young pitcher who will be there eventually. Is there an ace who might be available that we haven't been talking about?

I have already clarified what I meant by that, so you can stop repeating the "no trade value" line as some talking point. I'll state what I meant once again for absolute clarity. They don't have the type of value that would net us a future #1 starter from another team. You completely avoided my previous post where I asked you what scenario you could envision where the package you put together could net us a #1 future ace from another team. Another team would part with such gold only if you could give them a piece to help them win now. None of the guys you mentioned would help anyone win now. You have not put forth a plausible strategy.

 

As for alternative strategies, well, I am not the one claiming to have the answer or be on the right track on how to get an ace, but clearly, the answer is not to be patient with an implausible strategy to pry away another team's future ace by offering a package of mid-level prospects who cannot help them win now.

[example1]

I don't think I ever said that I had the solution. What I did say was that no matter what the solution is it will require patience. Teams end with very good SP options through less than glamorous trades pretty frequently. The sox won't get Felix or Verlander thru a trade anytime soon, but they could still get a very good pitcher with pieces they have currently.

 

Many experts disagree with your pedestrian analysis of Webster or De La Rosa. If they mastered command--something that occasionally happens with guys their age--they could become exactly what the sox need.

 

In addition to finding guys exactly like Webster and De La Rose thru trade, the sox may have the chance to use their prime draft spot to bolster their rotations chances of struking big.

 

As I said, right now I would love for the sox to target a guy like Trevor Bauer. You may feel they don't have enough but just a few months ago there were rumors that the sox and DBacks could fit on an Upton deal. Barring a deal with Arizona I would see what Billy Beane wanted for Anderson or Parker. As with all Oakland players it is just a matter of time until they are dealt. Maybe by 2014 it would be possible. They aren't aces but they certainly could help even good teams improve.

[RedSoxNC84]

On a seperate note, Greinke's contract is absolutely disgusting.

[BSN07]

On a seperate note, Greinke's contract is absolutely disgusting.

 

6/147M: a $12M signing bonus with a $17MM salary in 2013, $24MM in 2014, $23MM in 2015, $24MM in 2016, $23MM in 2017, and $24MM in 2018.

 

People who thought he wouldn't get Cain-Hammels money were crazy. I believe this is higher AAV then CC's deal. Deals IMO are starting to look more like NFL deals. Short in years and big signing bonuses. For some reason it seems I don't remember baseball players typically getting these big signing bonuses? I could be wrong.

[BSN07]

ex1 I agree they should try and make a play for Bauer.

 

Hmmm my creative juices are flowing(this proposal is for fun)

 

Red Sox get Upton and Bauer

 

Seattle gets Ellsbury and Masterson + lower prospect

 

AZ gets Asdrubel, Smoak and 1 SP prospect(From Red Sox, Barnes/Webster/Workman)+ Brentz

 

Cleveland gets Hultzen from Seattle, Cecchini and Kalish from Sox and Wade Davis(lower Rays SP)

 

TB gets Choo + 1 mid tier prospect from Cleveland(Maybe even Perez for the BP)

[mvp 78]

Maybe you sentence is poorly constructed.

 

Seriously man, I don't know what your beef is here. Was anyone else confused by my post? Do I need to clarify something for you?

 

Was your point that every pitcher for the Sox was a back end starter?

 

If so, then I agree.

 

However, I believe the problem was the lack of production from the front end of the rotation.

 

There's no beef on my part. Just don't think going into last season Beckett would have been considered a 4 or 5 by anyone. Calling him a back end of the rotation starter just doesn't make much sense and confuses the point you were trying to make.

[BSN07]

Was your point that every pitcher for the Sox was a back end starter?

 

If so, then I agree.

 

However, I believe the problem was the lack of production from the front end of the rotation.

 

There's no beef on my part. Just don't think going into last season Beckett would have been considered a 4 or 5 by anyone. Calling him a back end of the rotation starter just doesn't make much sense and confuses the point you were trying to make.

 

Going into last season Beckett was a mid rotation guy with chance of being a front end guy. Similar situations to Lester and Buchholz this season.

[Bellhorn04]

Josh Beckett is actually a good example of why the numbering system for starters can get a little silly. He's possibly the most erratic starter I've ever seen. He could be a stud hoss #1 and a back-end bum...all in the same season.

[example1]

ex1 I agree they should try and make a play for Bauer.

 

Hmmm my creative juices are flowing(this proposal is for fun)

 

Red Sox get Upton and Bauer

 

Seattle gets Ellsbury and Masterson + lower prospect

 

AZ gets Asdrubel, Smoak and 1 SP prospect(From Red Sox, Barnes/Webster/Workman)+ Brentz

 

Cleveland gets Hultzen from Seattle, Cecchini and Kalish from Sox and Wade Davis(lower Rays SP)

 

TB gets Choo + 1 mid tier prospect from Cleveland(Maybe even Perez for the BP)

 

I don't think TB would have much interest in helping the Sox get Upton and Bauer. Creative trade though. I would have no problem with the Sox being really aggressive on Upton and Bauer.

[example1]

6/147M: a $12M signing bonus with a $17MM salary in 2013, $24MM in 2014, $23MM in 2015, $24MM in 2016, $23MM in 2017, and $24MM in 2018.

 

People who thought he wouldn't get Cain-Hammels money were crazy. I believe this is higher AAV then CC's deal. Deals IMO are starting to look more like NFL deals. Short in years and big signing bonuses. For some reason it seems I don't remember baseball players typically getting these big signing bonuses? I could be wrong.

 

"Dodgers source tells me they expect their negotiations with Ryu Hyun-Jin to go right down to the wire today with his agent Scott Boras."

 

Jim Bowden's tweet from today. They might just go ahead and sign Sanche too. Holy s***. The new most dispicable team in baseball, I suppose. They laugh at the luxary tax in a way that even the Yankees don't right now.

 

Of course, the Yankees don't partially (I believe) because they have learned the hard way that spending as much as you want doesn't necessarily lead to a World Series or even a healthy competitive team in a few years. The Dodgers are absolute beasts right now. It's pretty unbelievable how much talent they have on their roster. Go Giants!

[a700hitter]

I don't think I ever said that I had the solution. What I did say was that no matter what the solution is it will require patience. Teams end with very good SP options through less than glamorous trades pretty frequently. The sox won't get Felix or Verlander thru a trade anytime soon, but they could still get a very good pitcher with pieces they have currently.

 

Many experts disagree with your pedestrian analysis of Webster or De La Rosa. If they mastered command--something that occasionally happens with guys their age--they could become exactly what the sox need.

 

In addition to finding guys exactly like Webster and De La Rose thru trade, the sox may have the chance to use their prime draft spot to bolster their rotations chances of struking big.

 

As I said, right now I would love for the sox to target a guy like Trevor Bauer. You may feel they don't have enough but just a few months ago there were rumors that the sox and DBacks could fit on an Upton deal. Barring a deal with Arizona I would see what Billy Beane wanted for Anderson or Parker. As with all Oakland players it is just a matter of time until they are dealt. Maybe by 2014 it would be possible. They aren't aces but they certainly could help even good teams improve.

I disagree with those who say be patient and an ace will come. It doesn't happen that way. Unless you produce the ace in your own system, you need them to become available as a FA or trade for one. About now you are saying duh. Our organization seems to be very weak at evaluating pitching talent and developing it, so i am not holding my breath that an ace will come out of our system anytime soon. No one is projecting Webster or De La Rosa as #1 guys. As for free agency, very few aces hit the FA market. Most teams extend those guys for big bucks like Hamels and Cain. We thought this year would be a bumper crop, but it was one of the thinnest years for top pitching in a while. When and if a big ace hits the market, good luck to us outbidding the Yankees (and the Dodgers too). If we go the trade route, it will cost big time. You are not going to get the next big ace for the guys you mentioned. Teams don't trade those guys unless they are trying to win it now and you have a win it now piece for them. You said that we had talks for Bauer and Upton, but I don't think that was verified by any team sources. Anyway, it never happened, and Bauer was probably the deal breaker. If you are waiting for beane to give up on his kids, you'll have to wait until they are arb eligible. What year is that?

 

Anyway, my point is that patience is not the solution. These aces don't drop from the heavens. Webster and De La Rosa project as middle of the rotation guys at best. They project more like Edwin Jackson than Felix Hernandez. However, we can build the middle and back ends of the rotation now without breaking the budget. There's no reason to be patient if we are waiting for the next Edwin Jackson instead of the next Felix Hernadez.

[Palodios]

I disagree with those who say be patient and an ace will come. It doesn't happen that way. Unless you produce the ace in your own system, you need them to become available as a FA or trade for one.

 

The Red Sox have two players in their system who could be an ace. Lester and Buchholz. Maybe instead of throwing money at the problem by signing new players, they should throw money at the problem by trying to get those two guys to as healthy and strong as possible. It just seems like there are so many players who had troubles in Boston, and immediately went to another team and thrived.

 

Fire the entire medical staff, and offer to pay the medical staff of an elite team twice or three times as much as they've been making. Hire more trainers, masseuses, physical therapy experts. Find ways to protect them from the media. Maybe look for an elite-elite steroid dealer, like the one Bautista has been seeing.

 

Oh, and maybe replacing that Saltalamacchia guy couldn't hurt:lol:

[example1]

You said that we had talks for Bauer and Upton, but I don't think that was verified by any team sources. Anyway, it never happened, and Bauer was probably the deal breaker.

 

I never said this. I said it was rumored that the Sox had inquired on Upton. My point was that if they had pieces that interested Arizona in Upton presumably they could interest them for Bauer instead. Who knows. Bauer appears to be the best pitching prospect currently "available" in trade talks, so why not be aggressive on it?

 

If you are waiting for beane to give up on his kids, you'll have to wait until they are arb eligible. What year is that?

 

This isn't how Billy Beane has worked historically. He has dealt players at all levels, from guys who are not yet in the majors to guys who are at arb.

 

Anyway, my point is that patience is not the solution. These aces don't drop from the heavens. Webster and De La Rosa project as middle of the rotation guys at best. They project more like Edwin Jackson than Felix Hernandez. However, we can build the middle and back ends of the rotation now without breaking the budget. There's no reason to be patient if we are waiting for the next Edwin Jackson instead of the next Felix Hernadez.

 

I can largely agree with this. I think your assessment of the Sox producing home grown talent is a little harsh, since they did produce Lester and Buchholz and Masterson (whose best years are likely ahead of him). I'm not saying they are a pitching factory producing pitcher after pitcher, but I don't think they are completely inept at it.

 

You are right that they might need to go for mid-tier talent instead of saving all their eggs for a big piece to become available. However, the best way to get elite talent is to draft it. That requires patience.

 

It requires patience in the sense of time as well as in the sense of making decisions about player acquisition with regard to draft implications. This is something they have always done and which I don't sense you've been a big fan of. They got two draft picks for letting Papelbon go last year. With those two picks they took two pitchers (Brian Johnson and Pat Light). This year they will have the #7 overall pick. Signing Napoli and Victorino by "overpaying" could be at least partially justified by the fact that they didn't have to give up 2nd round picks for either.

 

Finally, you keep saying that nobody is projecting De La Rosa or Webster to be #1s. I'd say that is true. Pitchers virtually never get projected as #1s. Those guys are often kids with tremendous stuff and a high amount of polish, who have also put together a track record of success.

 

I don't see anything about Webster's stuff, minor league numbers, or make up that suggest he couldn't develop into a pitcher at the quality of Brandon Webb or, on the low end, Derek Lowe. Scouts rave about his stuff, it's just a matter of putting it together.

 

De La Rosa has been widely acclaimed to have some of the most electric stuff in all of baseball. That's not hyperbole, it's what numerous scouts have said. The guy was touching 100 as a SP prior to his surgery.

 

Plenty of guys who are rotational mainstays didn't get the hype of a Felix or Strasburg. CC Sabathia had plenty of question-marks about him, so did Cliff Lee. Halladay had to work his stuff out in his early career to get where he did. Gio Gonzalez was known to be a good talent, but he was traded twice prior to landing in Washington.

 

 

Overall, it is easy to see the current "aces" as always having been sure things. I would say that aside from a few of them, most of them started out exactly where Barnes, De La Rosa and Webster are--highly projectable young pitchers who need to improve their command. Some do it, some don't, but very few are elite pitchers throughout their career. They all required patience.

 

Your point probably stands that while being patient the Sox will have to get some rotation filler to remain competitive. I would just say that I see no reason to pay 18m a year for a guy like Sanchez if Edwin Jackson is available for much less. In my opinion, the best the Sox can do is get as many young, high upside pitchers as they can and hope some of them work out to be high quality MLB starters. In the meantime, sure, go ahead and fill the rotation out with mid-tier guys. Just don't spend on them as if they are aces.

[a700hitter]

The Red Sox have two players in their system who could be an ace. Lester and Buchholz. Maybe instead of throwing money at the problem by signing new players, they should throw money at the problem by trying to get those two guys to as healthy and strong as possible. It just seems like there are so many players who had troubles in Boston, and immediately went to another team and thrived.

 

Fire the entire medical staff, and offer to pay the medical staff of an elite team twice or three times as much as they've been making. Hire more trainers, masseuses, physical therapy experts. Find ways to protect them from the media. Maybe look for an elite-elite steroid dealer, like the one Bautista has been seeing.

 

Oh, and maybe replacing that Saltalamacchia guy couldn't hurt:lol:

I am not sold on Lester being a#1 pitcher at this point. He has been headed in the wrong direction for more than one season, but Buch could take it to the next level. I agree. For better or worse, they are the top of our rotation in 2013, and I don't know when or where the next ace will come from. I don't think the FO knows either, so I think the only prudent strategy is to build the back of the rotation now with as people have suggested guys like Jackson, Marcum, or Jurjens. Doing nothing and waiting will just assure us of another last place season with no end in sight beyond 2013. I think we are in agreement as to what strategy Cherries should pursue for the remainder of the off season.

[a700hitter]

I never said this. I said it was rumored that the Sox had inquired on Upton. My point was that if they had pieces that interested Arizona in Upton presumably they could interest them for Bauer instead. Who knows. Bauer appears to be the best pitching prospect currently "available" in trade talks, so why not be aggressive on it?

 

 

 

This isn't how Billy Beane has worked historically. He has dealt players at all levels, from guys who are not yet in the majors to guys who are at arb.

 

 

 

I can largely agree with this. I think your assessment of the Sox producing home grown talent is a little harsh, since they did produce Lester and Buchholz and Masterson (whose best years are likely ahead of him). I'm not saying they are a pitching factory producing pitcher after pitcher, but I don't think they are completely inept at it.

 

You are right that they might need to go for mid-tier talent instead of saving all their eggs for a big piece to become available. However, the best way to get elite talent is to draft it. That requires patience.

 

It requires patience in the sense of time as well as in the sense of making decisions about player acquisition with regard to draft implications. This is something they have always done and which I don't sense you've been a big fan of. They got two draft picks for letting Papelbon go last year. With those two picks they took two pitchers (Brian Johnson and Pat Light). This year they will have the #7 overall pick. Signing Napoli and Victorino by "overpaying" could be at least partially justified by the fact that they didn't have to give up 2nd round picks for either.

 

Finally, you keep saying that nobody is projecting De La Rosa or Webster to be #1s. I'd say that is true. Pitchers virtually never get projected as #1s. Those guys are often kids with tremendous stuff and a high amount of polish, who have also put together a track record of success.

 

I don't see anything about Webster's stuff, minor league numbers, or make up that suggest he couldn't develop into a pitcher at the quality of Brandon Webb or, on the low end, Derek Lowe. Scouts rave about his stuff, it's just a matter of putting it together.

 

De La Rosa has been widely acclaimed to have some of the most electric stuff in all of baseball. That's not hyperbole, it's what numerous scouts have said. The guy was touching 100 as a SP prior to his surgery.

 

Plenty of guys who are rotational mainstays didn't get the hype of a Felix or Strasburg. CC Sabathia had plenty of question-marks about him, so did Cliff Lee. Halladay had to work his stuff out in his early career to get where he did. Gio Gonzalez was known to be a good talent, but he was traded twice prior to landing in Washington.

 

 

Overall, it is easy to see the current "aces" as always having been sure things. I would say that aside from a few of them, most of them started out exactly where Barnes, De La Rosa and Webster are--highly projectable young pitchers who need to improve their command. Some do it, some don't, but very few are elite pitchers throughout their career. They all required patience.

 

Your point probably stands that while being patient the Sox will have to get some rotation filler to remain competitive. I would just say that I see no reason to pay 18m a year for a guy like Sanchez if Edwin Jackson is available for much less. In my opinion, the best the Sox can do is get as many young, high upside pitchers as they can and hope some of them work out to be high quality MLB starters. In the meantime, sure, go ahead and fill the rotation out with mid-tier guys. Just don't spend on them as if they are aces.

I knew there was common ground. It just takes a while to get there.. They really have very little choice of what to do in 2013 and possibly 2014 unless they want to keep finishing last. IMO, if they finish last again in 2013, I think Ben will be gone and unlike Duke he will never get another job for a major league team. Good luck to him. His career is at a crossroads. He needs the team to show immediate improvement and future promise.

[Palodios]

It requires patience in the sense of time as well as in the sense of making decisions about player acquisition with regard to draft implications. This is something they have always done and which I don't sense you've been a big fan of. They got two draft picks for letting Papelbon go last year. With those two picks they took two pitchers (Brian Johnson and Pat Light). This year they will have the #7 overall pick. Signing Napoli and Victorino by "overpaying" could be at least partially justified by the fact that they didn't have to give up 2nd round picks for either.

 

I have been wondering if the Red Sox might be willing to spend considerably over the draft slot at #7 to get someone who might usually go around #3-4. Edwin Jackson is not going to cost the Red Sox a draft pick either, which is all the more reason why he seems to be a very good fit.

[example1]

If he is executing a plan that the FO agrees on I think it will be hard for them to let him go. As for our agreement, yes they need to add a piece or two for the time being but there are some serious traps in the market right now. Sanchez on the sexy-expensive end and Lihse on the polished-s*** end. Honestly, for the right price I wouldn't hate the names you mentioned.

[a700hitter]

If he is executing a plan that the FO agrees on I think it will be hard for them to let him go. As for our agreement, yes they need to add a piece or two for the time being but there are some serious traps in the market right now. Sanchez on the sexy-expensive end and Lihse on the polished-s*** end. Honestly, for the right price I wouldn't hate the names you mentioned.

Failure is an orphan. He may be a scapegoat in the end.

[Lucienbel]

I have been wondering if the Red Sox might be willing to spend considerably over the draft slot at #7 to get someone who might usually go around #3-4. Edwin Jackson is not going to cost the Red Sox a draft pick either, which is all the more reason why he seems to be a very good fit.

 

Edwin Jackson not costing a draft pick is a great reason to sign him. With the Dodgers supposedly in on Sanchez too, he may end up getting even more over paid than people thought he would in the first place. I think at this point Jackson is probably the best option for the Sox, while still considering Jurrjens as well for a Spring Training invite.

[example1]

Failure is an orphan. He may be a scapegoat in the end.

 

He definitely could, especially if another GM comes alone who is more attractive I just think that the Sox are in a bit of a unique position with LL having so much hands-on involvement both in the PR and baseball ops side of things. So far nothing BC has done is bold enough to warrant scorn, and LL is involved enough to be able to push a deal if there is one pending. The responsibility lies as much on him as on anyone else.

 

They can always scapegoat someone, but if the moves aren't there, they simply aren't there. They can go for mid-tier guys, but they just need to ensure they are paid like mid-tier guys. It makes me very nervous to hear about them possibly paying Kyle Lohse for 3 years. I would much rather they wait--like last year--and get the guys who are left when everyone else is gone. Unlike last year, they should actually have the money to sign the most attractive pieces who are left.

[example1]

Edwin Jackson not costing a draft pick is a great reason to sign him. With the Dodgers supposedly in on Sanchez too, he may end up getting even more over paid than people thought he would in the first place. I think at this point Jackson is probably the best option for the Sox, while still considering Jurrjens as well for a Spring Training invite.

 

Maybe do an overpay on Jackson for two seasons with an option. Last year he made 11m, so what would make sense for this year? He wasn't particularly good last year.

 

Gavin Floyd might be an option too. Interesting note: Floyd was actually traded by the Phillies with Gio Gonzalez to the White Sox for Freddy Garcia. Gio had previously been traded from the White Sox to the Phillies as a PTBNL with Aaron Rowand for Jim Thome. I didn't know that Gio had been traded so much:

 

CWS --> PHI (Thome)

PHI --> CWS (Garcia)

CWS--> OAK (Swisher)

OAK--> WAS (minor leaguers)

 

I think he's a great example of a 'near' ace who was moved around to get better pieces for teams hoping to win more quickly.

[jacksonianmarch]

Gio's an ace.

[SoxSport]

They better add another starter. Too risky to assume every starter is going to rebound this year, and one of the prospects will stick. Always expect the worst. Besides, the world is passing them by rapidly in the AL East. Maybe Yankees, too.

[Bellhorn04]

On a seperate note, Greinke's contract is absolutely disgusting.

 

The Dodgers are not only paying Greinke 25 million a year, but from the looks of it they'll be paying luxury tax of 40 or 50% most of the 6 years, plus the other new penalty. So in effect Greinke might cost them 35-40 million a year.

[Lucienbel]

The Dodgers are not only paying Greinke 25 million a year, but from the looks of it they'll be paying luxury tax of 40 or 50% most of the 6 years, plus the other new penalty. So in effect Greinke might cost them 35-40 million a year.

 

This really sucks for the game of baseball.

[example1]

Gio's an ace.

 

His numbers are comparable, but not as good, as Lester's through the same age. People weren't clamoring to call Lester an ace at the time. Hence, I will call him a 'near' ace.

[BSN07]

This really sucks for the game of baseball.

 

The Core of Kemp, Eithier, Crawford, Gonzalez, League, Kershaw are all there long term.

 

But Beckett, Hanley, Lilly, Harang, Billingsly, and a few others are all off the books within the next 2 seasons.They might be over for a couple years. But I think they will get back under(LT should be bumped up over the next couple seasons too).

[example1]

This really sucks for the game of baseball.

 

It didn't suck so much when they took the Red Sox 3 biggest contracts off the books and gave the Sox 2-3 decent prospects in return. The fact that baseball in the LA area generates enough cable revenue for a team to spend like this can't be entirely bad for baseball.

 

It's like saying the Yankees were bad for baseball. Yeah... kinda... but they brought the ratings like no other team and make the game more interesting by giving everyone a team to root against.

 

i'm just glad the dodgers aren't in the AL East.

[BSN07]

Dodgers just signed Ryu as well. Seems they have a glut of SP. Any interest in Billinglsey?