Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

[a700hitter]

I'd take a second steak any day over mashed potatoes. Of course, I low carb.

Yep, the steak analogy was just stupid. I'm going for a second steak.

[iortiz]

I can think of very few expensive FA SPs who ended up being a good deal. Do we think that Anibel Sanchez is going to break that trend? Sabathia and Cliff Lee, maybe, but Anibel Sanchez? No thanks. Use the money elsewhere.

 

C'mon E1, with that mentality we ain't going to grab nothing :harhar:

[a700hitter]

Jackson at 2/24M might. I don't think they want to glut the rotation up on 2nd tier pitchers on long term contracts. Sanchez unless he signs for something like 4/60M doesn't make sense in the long run.

IMO, Jackson at 3 yrs would not glut up the rotation. Lackey will come off the payroll in 2 years and we really have very little invested in our pitching.

[example1]

C'mon E1, with that mentality we ain't going to grab nothing :harhar:

 

As you'll see from my other post, I wouldn't be devastated if they went into 2014 with some portion of their current "surplus" for next year as well. 3-4 year deals are great, but they are still spending down the flexibility they earned when they traded away the bad contracts. They have to be able to jump at opportunities for elite pitchers, not mid-rotation guys who pretend to be elite (Sanchez).

[iortiz]

This makes absolutely no sense. The offense as it is can score runs, yet the pitching is in shambles. Taking that into account, why should Josh Hamilton be the number one target?

 

It's like cooking steak and mashed potatoes. You have a steak and need potatoes, but you go out and buy another steak. Where's the potatoes? Are you going to mash one of the steaks?

 

Exactly.

 

If we get those arms... We can go with the current offense which be at least average IMO.

 

In the end we could be more balanced, and who knows what you can grab in the half of the season.

[a700hitter]

I guess my bigger point is that people who are thinking the Sox should be finding that pitcher who is going to get them into contention/favored status right now really need to find some patience. I simply don't think that guy is out there. And when that guy DOES become available, I would hate for an extra, unnecessary 5m per year to be going to a guy like Sanchez or Lohse or Jackson.

 

Overall the Sox should be extremely aggressive on guys like Cole and Bauer. Any of the young pitchers who were top 5 draft picks are excellent options to build around. It might take more patience from fans but the upside is significantly higher with tose pitchers and the results are potentially much better.

 

The key phrase is patience. I know everyone feels like they have been patient since 2010 or whatever, but the rebuilding process for this team didn't start until the AdGon trade. it has been about 3 months. For most teams it takes years. The Sox did their best to extend their run of success, it failed, and now they're back at the drawing board. It is foolish if we expect that the answers are all there in the first season.

Okay E1, let's assume all Red Sox fans get prescriptions for medical marijuana and we start popping xanax too so we get all mellowed out. Where will the next pitching stud come from if he is not out there now? The farm system? I am not holding my breath, because organizationally we can't evaluateor develop pitchers well at all. When will such a pitcher become available? Is he playing in college? Has he been born yet?

[Dojji]

Okay E1, let's assume all Red Sox fans get prescriptions for medical marijuana and we start popping xanax too so we get all mellowed out. Where will the next pitching stud come from if he is not out there now? The farm system? I am not holding my breath, because organizationally we can't evaluateor develop pitchers well at all. When will such a pitcher become available? Is he playing in college? Has he been born yet?

 

Your question doesn't matter. It's not going to happen until that stud does come along, so settle in and enjoy the ride, if you can. No amount of "bold, decisive action" is going to help until some legitimate, bona fide breaks fall our way. Until then all being "aggressive" can do is waste precious resources on stopgaps and half measures. Not how I want to use the strength of this franchise.

[iortiz]

Okay E1, let's assume all Red Sox fans get prescriptions for medical marijuana and we start popping xanax too so we get all mellowed out. Where will the next pitching stud come from if he is not out there now? The farm system? I am not holding my breath, because organizationally we can't evaluateor develop pitchers well at all. When will such a pitcher become available? Is he playing in college? Has he been born yet?

 

It's clear that this year is not available an ace unless you clean up your farm system ( ...and I'm not sure that we have the pieces for a guy like Felix)

 

Anyway...my whole point is, get the best 2-3 tier pitchers (Jackson and Sanchez) even if you over pay 'em and see if you still need that "ace" in 2014 since Lester, Buch or even ugly face Lackey could bounce back or if these acquisitions show solid numbers (still you have Douby as depth)... But please... Do not waste this opportunity again even if this means go with the current offense.

[example1]

Okay E1, let's assume all Red Sox fans get prescriptions for medical marijuana and we start popping xanax too so we get all mellowed out. Where will the next pitching stud come from if he is not out there now? The farm system? I am not holding my breath, because organizationally we can't evaluateor develop pitchers well at all. When will such a pitcher become available? Is he playing in college? Has he been born yet?

 

He was conceived on January 12th, 2007.

 

Seriously, though, many people like the potential of the young pitchers the Sox have. Barnes, Webster, De La Rosa and Owens get more credit from others than from you. That's understandable. I would be skeptical too. I think they could package one or two of those guys for a true stud arm in the next year or so or see how they develop. They are stockpiling pieces that could be used for bigger deals in the future.

[User Name]

Yep, the steak analogy was just stupid. I'm going for a second steak.

 

That's because you're apparently too stupid to understand that steak and potatoes does, in fact, require steak and potatoes.

 

If you're not smart enough to understand this, how can we trust your baseball-team assembly skills?

[Palodios]

Okay E1, let's assume all Red Sox fans get prescriptions for medical marijuana and we start popping xanax too so we get all mellowed out. Where will the next pitching stud come from if he is not out there now? The farm system? I am not holding my breath, because organizationally we can't evaluateor develop pitchers well at all. When will such a pitcher become available? Is he playing in college? Has he been born yet?

 

The Red Sox can win in the regular season even without elite-elite pitching. Their offense will be very very good, and they can still look at their options at the deadline. But the problem over the last few years is that their back-end pitchers have been disastrous.

 

2012 starters?

12 starts: Dice-k 8.28 ERA

21 starts: Beckett-- 5.23 ERA.

8 starts: Bard 5.30 ERA

18 starts: Aaron Cook 5.65 ERA

2 starts Zach Stewart: 22.24 ERA

 

62 starts by pitchers with a 5.23 ERA or worse! 14-37

 

There is no slugging your way out from those kinds of holes. But do they need pitchers with 2.50 ERA every time out? Not necessarily. If they add two more starters capable of a 4.00-4.50 ERA with 150-200 IP, they will win 10-15 more games easily.

[Lucienbel]

The Red Sox can win in the regular season even without elite-elite pitching. Their offense will be very very good, and they can still look at their options at the deadline. But the problem over the last few years is that their back-end pitchers have been disastrous.

 

2012 starters?

12 starts: Dice-k 8.28 ERA

21 starts: Beckett-- 5.23 ERA.

8 starts: Bard 5.30 ERA

18 starts: Aaron Cook 5.65 ERA

2 starts Zach Stewart: 22.24 ERA

 

62 starts by pitchers with a 5.23 ERA or worse! 14-37

 

There is no slugging your way out from those kinds of holes. But do they need pitchers with 2.50 ERA every time out? Not necessarily. If they add two more starters capable of a 4.00-4.50 ERA with 150-200 IP, they will win 10-15 more games easily.

 

Definitely true. Still, adding a guy that can go out and really lock it down day in and day out would be great. Someone reliable you can almost always expect to put a W down when they're out on the mound. Still, I agree they can be competitive without that.

[mvp 78]

The Red Sox can win in the regular season even without elite-elite pitching. Their offense will be very very good, and they can still look at their options at the deadline. But the problem over the last few years is that their back-end pitchers have been disastrous.

2012 starters?

12 starts: Dice-k 8.28 ERA

21 starts: Beckett-- 5.23 ERA.

8 starts: Bard 5.30 ERA

18 starts: Aaron Cook 5.65 ERA

2 starts Zach Stewart: 22.24 ERA

There is no slugging your way out from those kinds of holes. But do they need pitchers with 2.50 ERA every time out? Not necessarily. If they add two more starters capable of a 4.00-4.50 ERA with 150-200 IP, they will win 10-15 more games easily.

Beckett was a "back end" starter?

[mvp 78]

Wasn't Morales a "back end" guy who pitched well? Why no mention?

[Lucienbel]

Beckett was certainly a back end starter last year. Or he should have been.

[BSN07]

The Dodgers appear to be close to signing Zack Greinke, reports Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports (on Twitter). There is still ground to be covered, but Los Angeles is out in front for the right-hander's services at the moment.

 

FA log jam is fixin to come loose. Hamilton will go back to Texas and they will trade for a SP if Grienke signs with LA. This could end Hamilton possibilities.

[mvp 78]

Beckett was certainly a back end starter last year. Or he should have been.

 

So they had all back end starters then? Then the problem would be a lack of front end starters, right?

[Palodios]

Beckett was a "back end" starter?

 

Wasn't Morales a "back end" guy who pitched well? Why no mention?

 

Beckett sure pitched like a back end starter. You may be missing the point-- This team had far too many pitches thrown by guys with 5.00+ ERA.

[mvp 78]

Beckett sure pitched like a back end starter. You may be missing the point-- This team had far too many pitches thrown by guys with 5.00+ ERA.

 

Maybe you point was poorly constructed?

[Palodios]

Maybe you point was poorly constructed?

 

Maybe you sentence is poorly constructed.

 

Seriously man, I don't know what your beef is here. Was anyone else confused by my post? Do I need to clarify something for you?

[a700hitter]

He was conceived on January 12th, 2007.

 

Seriously, though, many people like the potential of the young pitchers the Sox have. Barnes, Webster, De La Rosa and Owens get more credit from others than from you. That's understandable. I would be skeptical too. I think they could package one or two of those guys for a true stud arm in the next year or so or see how they develop. They are stockpiling pieces that could be used for bigger deals in the future.

Barnes has my interest, but he has to dominate at AA before he can be taken seriously as a future #1. De La Rosa is probably a bullpen guy. The rest are not anything to cause excitement. I don't think they even havre any trade value.

[a700hitter]

 

62 starts by pitchers with a 5.23 ERA or worse! 14-37

 

There is no slugging your way out from those kinds of holes. But do they need pitchers with 2.50 ERA every time out? Not necessarily. If they add two more starters capable of a 4.00-4.50 ERA with 150-200 IP, they will win 10-15 more games easily.

That's right. Average major league pitching would have won several more games for us in 2012. It probably would have kept them in the Wild Card race.

[example1]

Barnes has my interest, but he has to dominate at AA before he can be taken seriously as a future #1. De La Rosa is probably a bullpen guy. The rest are not anything to cause excitement. I don't think they even havre any trade value.

 

Again, I think you are flat wrong here but we can disagree. Webster was a top 100 prospect prior to last year and pitched well in AA as a 22 year old. His stuff is very good, mid-90s with a power sinker.

 

Virtually every scouting report I've read says either mid rotation starter or dominant late-innings reliever.

 

Virtually every scouting report I've read says De La Rosa's ceiling is higher.

 

I realize none of them are sure things, but it's not like they are worthless like you imply.

[a700hitter]

Again, I think you are flat wrong here but we can disagree. Webster was a top 100 prospect prior to last year and pitched well in AA as a 22 year old. His stuff is very good, mid-90s with a power sinker.

 

Virtually every scouting report I've read says either mid rotation starter or dominant late-innings reliever.

 

Virtually every scouting report I've read says De La Rosa's ceiling is higher.

 

I realize none of them are sure things, but it's not like they are worthless like you imply.

 

But they are so uncertain with regard to their MLB prespects that the FO cannot sit and wait for one of them to be next big stud pitcher that we are looking for. No one projects any of these kids to be that type of pitcher, not even you. I asked you where we will get the next big pitcher and you answered that we could get him by packaging some of these guys. You don't get a Felix Hernandez type pitcher for a collection of guys whose ceilings are middle of the rotation. It ain't gonna happen.

[example1]

But they are so uncertain with regard to their MLB prespects that the FO cannot sit and wait for one of them to be next big stud pitcher that we are looking for. No one projects any of these kids to be that type of pitcher, not even you. I asked you where we will get the next big pitcher and you answered that we could get him by packaging some of these guys. You don't get a Felix Hernandez type pitcher for a collection of guys whose ceilings are middle of the rotation. It ain't gonna happen.

 

Felix isn't the next big pitcher--he might have been 4 years ago. He's a current big pitcher. The next big pitcher is someone you probably don't know about yet. Maybe a Bauer or Cole, Dylan Bundy, one of the other kids in Seattle or Jameson Taillon. Who knows. I think the goal should be to get one of these guys from a team looking to win "now" and supplement their other good pitching prospects with a guy with higher upside. They need to look 2-5 years down the road, not just to April.

[a700hitter]

Felix isn't the next big pitcher--he might have been 4 years ago. He's a current big pitcher. The next big pitcher is someone you probably don't know about yet. Maybe a Bauer or Cole, Dylan Bundy, one of the other kids in Seattle or Jameson Taillon. Who knows. I think the goal should be to get one of these guys from a team looking to win "now" and supplement their other good pitching prospects with a guy with higher upside. They need to look 2-5 years down the road, not just to April.

I realize that Felix Hernandez is not the next big pitcher. That is why I said "Felix Hernandez type pitcher". You are not going to get the next Felix Hernandez with a collection of guys who project possibly to the middle of the rotation.

[example1]

I realize that Felix Hernandez is not the next big pitcher. That is why I said "Felix Hernandez type pitcher". You are not going to get the next Felix Hernandez with a collection of guys who project possibly to the middle of the rotation.

 

Hernandez was a generational talent. People knew he was all star caliber at 20 years old. He's an unrealistic aspiration. No team will let him go.

 

Overall I think you are underestimating what the Sox can potentially give up to supplement a team ready to make a good run. A package of Kalish, Barnes, Lavarnway, Doubront, and Brentz deal would get plenty of attention and wouldn't kill the club. Or they could use other guys like Owens or Cecchinni if they wanted. They have lots of pieces. You may not think so, but they do. What is lacking are a plethora of teams wanting to trade their top pitching prospects. Arizona could be a good candidate, especially now that the Rangers are more likely to pursue Hamilton/Shields rather than Upton in a deal sending Bauer to Cleveland.

[a700hitter]

Hernandez was a generational talent. People knew he was all star caliber at 20 years old. He's an unrealistic aspiration. No team will let him go.

 

Overall I think you are underestimating what the Sox can potentially give up to supplement a team ready to make a good run. A package of Kalish, Barnes, Lavarnway, Doubront, and Brentz deal would get plenty of attention and wouldn't kill the club. Or they could use other guys like Owens or Cecchinni if they wanted. They have lots of pieces. You may not think so, but they do. What is lacking are a plethora of teams wanting to trade their top pitching prospects. Arizona could be a good candidate, especially now that the Rangers are more likely to pursue Hamilton/Shields rather than Upton in a deal sending Bauer to Cleveland.

I honestly think that the package mentioned in your post is not going to get any interest when trying to pry away a #1 type future starter. You are over rating their value. The Sox will need to dig deeper than that to get their next big pitcher.

[example1]

I honestly think that the package mentioned in your post is not going to get any interest when trying to pry away a #1 type future starter. You are over rating their value. The Sox will need to dig deeper than that to get their next big pitcher.

 

I don't think there's really any way to validate/invalidate this discussion. You think poorly of the Sox current prospects. I think highly of many of them. It's not something easily resolved in a format like this.

 

I'm confident that I'm at least on the right track, having heard Alex Speier make virtually the same point on the radio the other day and seeing that you have no faith that either Webster or De La Rosa have any trade value when, according to just about every expert out there they do. Find one who says neither is likely to amount to anything and I will change my tune.

[a700hitter]

I don't think there's really any way to validate/invalidate this discussion. You think poorly of the Sox current prospects. I think highly of many of them. It's not something easily resolved in a format like this.

 

I'm confident that I'm at least on the right track, having heard Alex Speier make virtually the same point on the radio the other day and seeing that you have no faith that either Webster or De La Rosa have any trade value when, according to just about every expert out there they do. Find one who says neither is likely to amount to anything and I will change my tune.

I didn't say that they have no trade value. They might have trade value in a salary dump deal- like the way we got Webster and De La Rosa, but they don't have the type of trade value necessary to pry away a future #1 from a team. Under what scenario could you envision the package that you put together in your post above netting us a future #1 pitcher from another team? None of those guys would help put a team over the top to win now, and the only reason why a team would part with a blue chip future ace would be to win now? I asked where the next big ace will come from, and clearly, you have no plausible strategy for getting one down the road.