Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

[iortiz]

I am a bit surprised that Sox Management did not demand some sort of move that would help early ticket sales. Seems to me the Sox are going to lose some sales momentum that you just don't get back. People end up doing something else with their money. It does not matter that you eventually do something...the damage is done by then at least as far as the gate is concerned.

 

Right now you have to be buying tickets on faith hoping that you are not buying tickets to watch the Sox get kicked from one foul pole to the other one.

 

I do not know how this is going to end but it doesn't smell well jung.

[ibot2much]

Based on the various stories that came out last( late )season that the tickets were just about being given away and that long time season ticket holders could not even give their tickets way, the sales look like they should be way below previous sales. I do agree that it is surprising that nothing has been done to get some interest at least started.

[jung]

Having been a season ticket holder I can tell you that at least in my case and my buddies that bought the seats to the left and right of me we were never counting on making anything like every game. Getting left with your yo-yo in one hand and your tickets in the other for several games really makes it tough to commit again.

 

We were lucky for the most part. I was living in a Beacon St brownstone in Brookline at the time and one of us scurvy dog bachelors alternating would hop on a motorcycle...blast down to Fenway if we were not going....sell the seats and blast the heck outta' there. Maybe come back by way of Comm Av and cut across to Rubin's for some hot pastromi sandwiches to take home for supper....yum-yum.

[a700hitter]

Having been a season ticket holder I can tell you that at least in my case and my buddies that bought the seats to the left and right of me we were never counting on making anything like every game. Getting left with your yo-yo in one hand and your tickets in the other for several games really makes it tough to commit again.

 

We were lucky for the most part. I was living in a Beacon St brownstone in Brookline at the time and one of us scurvy dog bachelors alternating would hop on a motorcycle...blast down to Fenway if we were not going....sell the seats and blast the heck outta' there. Maybe come back by way of Comm Av and cut across to Rubin's for some hot pastromi sandwiches to take home for supper....yum-yum.

The secondary market for tickets evaporated after April. I am not talking about looking to make a profit, just to recoup cost. Luckily, I scored early on selling some tickets to Yankee games at a huge markup to defray most of my losses. Screw the Yankee fans. For the most part, I had trouble giving away the tix. I don't buy tix to resell, but the Sox put you in the position with the stupid GamePax-- 1 Yankee game, 1 weekend game and 2 weekday games against schlubs. Jung, me and others are notr going to leave ourselves at the mercy of a dead secondary market this year, so the primary market will take the hit.

[Bellhorn04]

Here's a funny thought...I've heard a number of people say that we shouldn't sign Anibal Sanchez because he's just not that good. And I don't totally disagree with that. But the funny part is, he would have been the best starter on our 2012 staff. And it's very possible if we signed him that he'd be the best starter on our 2013 staff.

[jung]

I doubt there would even be a question about Sanchez being the best starter we would have unless they brought in another starter with Sanchez. I think Lester would struggle to knock Sanchez off that perch this year although he would pull it off if he came all the way back. Buch would have a shot to knock Sanchez off but I would not bet on it. Don't think Lackey would have a snowballs chance in hell.

[BSN07]

If Sanchez is the best pitcher on the team, the team is going no where. So there be little point in having him and his contract now. Sanchez is a guy you add when your a piece or two away from truly being a contender. He's not a piece you sink a s*** load of money on and build around.

 

IMO the Nats are building momentum for Grienke. If LAD misses out on Grienke, they won't miss on Sanchez. LAD is Sanchez best shot at a 90-100M deal. The Nats could also pursue hard if they are the ones to miss out on Grienke. I was hopefully early on the Sox might be able to get these guys. But I think those players markets are going to balloon past the Red Sox comfort zone.

[Bellhorn04]

If Sanchez is the best pitcher on the team, the team is going no where. So there be little point in having him and his contract now. Sanchez is a guy you add when your a piece or two away from truly being a contender.

 

Well, it's not really that cut and dry. You sign a Sanchez, you get lucky with Lester, Buch, even Lackey bouncing back, and then maybe you've got something going. You add another pitcher at the deadline with the extra money you have. There are a lot of uncertainties and possibilities. Signing a Sanchez simply improves your chances.

[jung]

And that is sort of the point though Bell.....normally you would say a really solid rotation would not position Sanchez at the top of the pack. In the case of the Sox they would start the year with a bunch of IFs and would need them to all fall their way even for the best we have to offer to slide past Sanchez.

 

To quote Tom Hanks in Saving Private Ryan to German propaganda agent Daniel Dusseldorf's comment that the "Statue of Liberty is kaput".

 

"Disconcerting"

[BSN07]

Well, it's not really that cut and dry. You sign a Sanchez, you get lucky with Lester, Buch, even Lackey bouncing back, and then maybe you've got something going. You add another pitcher at the deadline with the extra money you have. There are a lot of uncertainties and possibilities. Signing a Sanchez simply improves your chances.

 

No what they need to do is not blow their resources on guys like Sanchez now. But wait and see how Lester, Buch, and Lackey rebound. If they are looking strong, then you can look to add to those guys later in the season. If 2/3 of those guys don't bounce back then having Sanchez is a waste. There's no point in risking it.

 

Like I said, you make this move as a finishing piece on a legit contender. Not when your team is praying for 3/5 of the starting rotation to bounce back.

[Bellhorn04]

No what they need to do is not blow their resources on guys like Sanchez now. But wait and see how Lester, Buch, and Lackey rebound. If they are looking strong, then you can look to add to those guys later in the season. If 2/3 of those guys don't bounce back then having Sanchez is a waste. There's no point in risking it.

 

Like I said, you make this move as a finishing piece on a legit contender. Not when your team is praying for 3/5 of the starting rotation to bounce back.

 

Sure, maybe they don't bounce back. But signing Sanchez could still be a plus 2-3 years down the road. Pitching is a very limited commodity. We can't assume our pitching prospects are going to develop.

 

They should at least make him an offer, just not for 6-90.

[jung]

I would not go Sanchez either. The Sox will have to go the short term contract route ala the kinds of guys that "Pal" as recommending a week ago to get them through 2013. At least they should fill out the rotation and who knows...they may stick. But they have to keep Lester...have to unless he gets packaged up with somebody and brings back somebody better than Lester.

[Bellhorn04]

It's great to hang onto your money, but for who exactly? The cap goes to 189 million next year. We have a ton of room. Who are the targets for 2014? Are we sure they'll still be available?

[User Name]

If they're going to go for a FA pitcher, they should either go for the big splash and sign Greinke, or sign a couple of high-upside guys with question marks like Dan Haren and Shawn Marcum.

[BSN07]

It's great to hang onto your money, but for who exactly? The cap goes to 189 million next year. We have a ton of room. Who are the targets for 2014? Are we sure they'll still be available?

 

We know who the FA's are likely to be. But you have to consider trades too. Some Pitcher that's not available now could be later.

 

There's an inherit risk in both paths.

 

I will leave you with this, the last time the Red Sox went out and spent on questionable SP because they were the best available at that time and for the foreseeable future....... we got John Lackey. Just sayin

[Bellhorn04]

We know who the FA's are likely to be. But you have to consider trades too. Some Pitcher that's not available now could be later.

 

There's an inherit risk in both paths.

 

I will leave you with this, the last time the Red Sox went out and spent on questionable SP because they were the best available at that time and for the foreseeable future....... we got John Lackey. Just sayin

 

There's always risk, you're right. We could trade prospects for an apparent stud like A-Gon and it could backfire. Sure things are rare.

[BSN07]

If they're going to go for a FA pitcher, they should either go for the big splash and sign Greinke, or sign a couple of high-upside guys with question marks like Dan Haren and Shawn Marcum.

 

Haren and Marcum make sense. Grienke is in another universe $ wise. Not saying he is impossible to get. But I would be pretty surprised. Nats and LAD are going to start and East coast West coast war over him

[BSN07]

There's always risk, you're right. We could trade prospects for an apparent stud like A-Gon and it could backfire. Sure things are rare.

 

Yup, but that's life in general lol

 

But you have to weigh the risks and I think Sanchez at 90M+ is just too risky. But that's me.

[jung]

I don't want to see them sit on the money. I just don't want them to spend it all in one off season cause I don't think the players are out there to spend it on in one offseason. However I know I have already indicated what I would like them to do....I don't want multiple guys on deals long enough to push them right into guys like the B's making there way north next year. I want them to put somebody with Ortiz to become what Detroit has now and what we used to have in Ortiz and Manny and have that set for the B's and the players that make it through this year to fill in around for 2014. A couple pitchers work out plus planning one major pitching signing between now and the beginning of the 2014 season and we may just be loaded for bear for 2014 having had an interesting but futile 2013.

[a700hitter]

Yup, but that's life in general lol

 

But you have to weigh the risks and I think Sanchez at 90M+ is just too risky. But that's me.

Finishing last two years in a row carries risks for the franchise.

[jung]

They don't have to finish last in 2013 and well they should not.

[BSN07]

Finishing last two years in a row carries risks for the franchise.

 

So what if they finish last a couple season in a row while rebuilding? Is the fan base going to dry up and they will have to consider moving the franchise? It's not the end of the world.

 

And just to be clear, they could get Sanchez and still finish in last place.

[example1]

So what if they finish last a couple season in a row while rebuilding? Is the fan base going to dry up and they will have to consider moving the franchise? It's not the end of the world.

 

And just to be clear, they could get Sanchez and still finish in last place.

 

Sometimes what benefits fan re-engagement after a few poor seasons is having someone who is a near-generational talent. Fans will rally around a star player who they really like. I think about how Justin Verlander is the center of the Tigers universe, even with Cabrera and Fielder there now. Evan Longoria is that guy in Tampa. Washington has a number of good players but that will be Bryce Harper's and Steven Strasburg's team; Anaheim has Pujols but Trout might be the guy the fans come to like the most.

 

Where does that leave the Red Sox? Needing to find that next guy. I would propose two things:

 

1) moves like the Lester for Myers move should be pursued aggressively. Who knows if Myers is that guy, but his numbers suggest he's got a good chance to be at least a very good MLB regular, if not a perennial all-star. They need that lottery ticket more than they need a #2 starter moving forward.

 

2) Amass top draft picks. As far as I'm concerned, if they're going to be bad in 2013 they might as well be really bad. The most obvious generational talent usually lives at the top of the draft, but it's hard to get there. The Sox being an 80 win team for 3-4 years won't help them as much as being a 69 win team for another season.

 

All that said, there might be ways to make this team actually competitive this year, in which case they should do that. If Anibel Sanchez is willing to sign a reasonable deal to come to Boston, Josh Hamilton will sign a 5 year deal, and they can trade some players for future stars (or future stars for necessary pieces now, i.e., pitching) then they should do that. I just don't know that it is likely.

 

I'm prefacing all of my comments above from the fact that I, like many Red Sox fans, am not as inve$ted in their being interested year in and year out. For those fans I do sympathize. I love the Red Sox and spend a good portion of my summer watching them... from my house. In Oregon. Those of you who invest a significant amount of time and money in going to games, having to pay for parking, sitting through Sox events (Christmas at Fenway), etc., will experience a fair amount of disconnect between what is being sold and what the team is in reality, and that's not easy at all. I would completely understand you wanting something great now and not tolerating another terrible season.

 

It is all in the eye of the beholder, I suppose.

[Palodios]

2) Amass top draft picks. As far as I'm concerned, if they're going to be bad in 2013 they might as well be really bad. The most obvious generational talent usually lives at the top of the draft, but it's hard to get there. The Sox being an 80 win team for 3-4 years won't help them as much as being a 69 win team for another season.

 

I disagreed with J_E when he had the same exact argument in basketball, and in baseball I disagree significantly more here.

 

Mike Trout was picked 25th in the draft. Heyward 14th. Lincecum 10th. Ellsbury 23rd.Weaver 12th, Papelbon 114th. Ethier 62nd. Those aren't lucky examples either, in baseball, there are fewer sure things, and more talent later in the draft.It is one thing if they can get the #1 pick, but with complete losers like the Marlins out there, they are looking at #4 or higher, and that isn't worth bombing the season for.

 

The best way to go is sign a pile of high annual value, one or two year contracts on players who will rebound, and be good enough to offer arbitration and get those sandwich round picks. There is going to be more value in two picks in the low 20s/30s than one pick in the lower digits.

[Palodios]

I also think the Red Sox need to keep their eyes out on the free agent market over the next few years for generational talent, and overpay only if the player is a complete and utter stud.

 

There have been only a handful of those guys that have hit the free agent market, and it was obvious to everyone at the time. Matt Holliday, CC Sabathia, Manny Ramirez come to mind quickly. Even Adrian Beltre with his elite glove and a bat that we all knew had just been stifled in Seattle. Those guys didn't have the huge glaring question marks of Lackey/ Crawford/Jenks.

[example1]

I also think the Red Sox need to keep their eyes out on the free agent market over the next few years for generational talent, and overpay only if the player is a complete and utter stud.

 

There have been only a handful of those guys that have hit the free agent market, and it was obvious to everyone at the time. Matt Holliday, CC Sabathia, Manny Ramirez come to mind quickly. Even Adrian Beltre with his elite glove and a bat that we all knew had just been stifled in Seattle. Those guys didn't have the huge glaring question marks of Lackey/ Crawford/Jenks.

 

I really think this is hindsight Palodios, as much as I respect your position. Beltre's previous 3059 PAs in Seattle led to a .759 OPS and a 101 OPS+. In no season did he have an OBP above .330. Then in a contract season in Boston he put up a .919 OPS, his best since his previous contract season in LA. It was highly suspicious and unreliable, at least as far as I'm concerned.

 

Otherwise your point makes sense though.

 

As for the draft pick discussion, there are always players who are selected later in the draft who do well. You selected a nice list. I noticed you didn't list all the guys who go in the top 10 picks who go on to be the type of players we are talking about. Selecting early in the draft logically gives you a larger universe of players to draft from. Weaver was selected 12th, for instance, which means that teams 13 and on would not have had a chance to draft him.

 

To put it another way, all things being equal (here, that means literally "without any noticable difference in the seasons that lead up to having one draft slot or another") a team would always prefer to have the first pick. Nobody would say the Sox should tank their season, but at some point if they are going to have an unsuccessful campaign it becomes preferable (to me at least) for them to start moving up in the draft order (like they did in 2012).

 

What the team does with the draft pick is a different matter, which is why all those guys were still available at those spots.

 

I'm sure plenty of people hate the idea of the Sox not winning every game. I'm just saying what I think about the value of getting a tremendous player through the draft and how their odds increase as their slot increases.

 

Finally, add in the fact that teams with unprotected picks can lose their first round pick if they dare to sign a protected FA, and finishing in the middle sucks even more. At the very least, if the Sox are going to be bad they benefit by having a protected pick.

[jung]

The Sox are really not in a position to just give up on seasons or even look like they are. Their ticket prices are to high and the "Nation" has grown used to the Sox competing unlike other places where the ticket prices are substantially lower and fans only hope their teams might compete.

 

If the Sox look like last place, their ticket sales will very likely plummet. I even think the number of companies buying tickets would fall considerably. So their stuck. They are built on a model that requires some level of effort on their part even if it is a facade. In fact we often talk that facade here. I think that at a minimum the Sox will have to look like they are at least making an effort for a WC (regardless of how useless I think the WC has become) and at least for this season give the Fans a glimpse into the future and let us see some of the young guys play. At least we can muse over whether we think they are worth a darn or not.

 

I don't think they want to be testing Sox fan resiliency in this economy.

[Laser Show]

The biggest drawback to the Lester-Myers trade IMO, is this: The casual fan knows Jon Lester, and loves him. Without that star quality pitcher since Pedro/Schilling/Beckett, those fans have grown to love Lester. Trading him for a "prospect" like Myers, who is an unknown to those casuals, could signal a rebuilding year, with less fans buying tickets and merchandise. I am all for the trade however.

[example1]

The Sox are really not in a position to just give up on seasons or even look like they are. Their ticket prices are to high and the "Nation" has grown used to the Sox competing unlike other places where the ticket prices are substantially lower and fans only hope their teams might compete.

 

If the Sox look like last place, their ticket sales will very likely plummet. I even think the number of companies buying tickets would fall considerably. So their stuck. They are built on a model that requires some level of effort on their part even if it is a facade. In fact we often talk that facade here. I think that at a minimum the Sox will have to look like they are at least making an effort for a WC (regardless of how useless I think the WC has become) and at least for this season give the Fans a glimpse into the future and let us see some of the young guys play. At least we can muse over whether we think they are worth a darn or not.

 

I don't think they want to be testing Sox fan resiliency in this economy.

 

The problem is that when this facade is successful fans believe they are actually trying. And if they believe they are trying and the team failes then they are seen as incompetent and they want heads to roll.

 

Theo tried to span this gap by talking about the bridge year in a realistic way and he was ripped apart for it. He said they were building a highly competitive team but acknowledging to the fans that they weren't going all in because they were intentionally planning for the future. The media and fans went nuts, so they responded with "splashes" that didn't work, to keep the fans happy. That strategy has been tried, and it failed.

[a700hitter]

The problem is that when this facade is successful fans believe they are actually trying. And if they believe they are trying and the team failes then they are seen as incompetent and they want heads to roll.

 

Theo tried to span this gap by talking about the bridge year in a realistic way and he was ripped apart for it. He said they were building a highly competitive team but acknowledging to the fans that they weren't going all in because they were intentionally planning for the future. The media and fans went nuts, so they responded with "splashes" that didn't work, to keep the fans happy. That strategy has been tried, and it failed.

The other possibility is that they have just done a s***** job. Blaming the fans is ridiculous. They don't run the team ans they have no say.