Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

[iortiz]

We can't beat that pitching drum enough. That remains our #1 need since 2011.

 

Hopefully something big is cooking in that regard. We just can not go like this.

[jung]

The problem is that there are not many options for pitching (what else is new). Even in cases where there might be a limited number of teams chasing a pitcher, there would seem to be enough that anybody you want you are going to overpay for. The question is who is it going to be and how much are you going to overpay.

 

To me, if I am stuck with overpaying, then I am going to overpay for somebody that I really think is sound and healthy and somebody that I can rely on at a certain level. In other words, I would not want to overpay for somebody with so many question marks that he looks like he is wearing a Riddler Halloween costume.

 

As we all know, we have seen overpays for guys with question marks all over the place. I would do a deal like that if it as for a second starting pitcher that I was going to sign but even at that, I would not be willing to overpay by much and I would not be doing it for a big money contract even if it was not that much of an overpay. I am tired of these guys hobbling in on a pair of crutches, getting all the money. I am way ready to let somebody else do that.

[example1]

We can't beat that pitching drum enough. That remains our #1 need since 2011.

 

{posted this prior to reading Jung, saying something very similar}

 

It's just unclear who is available though. I am willing to go on a limb and say that they aren't going to get a true ace this off season. There aren't those guys available. If they go down a notch to the second tier, they could drastically overpay for someone who isn't that good. I don't particularly like that option either.

 

Sadly, for all of us, I really think they are going to have to largely rely on getting Lester back to his old self, Buchholz to put together a great season, and get a few good seasons from some unexpected guys. Doubront could be at least average (if not better), Lackey has historically been much better than he was the past few years, and perhaps someone else would be a good fit or a surprise.

 

I'm not laying this all at the feet of Cherington though. If the pitcher they need isn't out there, he isn't out there. We all want them to get 2010-2011 Cliff Lee, or current Felix Hernandez or another true Ace, but those guys are truly coveted. Even Josh Johnson, who is very good, isn't at that level and isn't entirely reliable.

 

We will see where this goes. Not sure the pitching can be worked out the way we all want as quickly as we want it.

[BSN07]

The problem is that there are not many options for pitching (what else is new). Even in cases where there might be a limited number of teams chasing a pitcher, there would seem to be enough that anybody you want you are going to overpay for. The question is who is it going to be and how much are you going to overpay.

 

To me, if I am stuck with overpaying, then I am going to overpay for somebody that I really think is sound and healthy and somebody that I can rely on at a certain level. In other words, I would not want to overpay for somebody with so many question marks that he looks like he is wearing a Riddler Halloween costume.

 

As we all know, we have seen overpays for guys with question marks all over the place. I would do a deal like that if it as for a second starting pitcher that I was going to sign but even at that, I would not be willing to overpay by much and I would not be doing it for a big money contract even if it was not that much of an overpay. I am tired of these guys hobbling in on a pair of crutches, getting all the money. I am way ready to let somebody else do that.

 

If they are going to overpay my choice would be Grienke. He's a possible #1 currently in the early stages of his prime. I wouldn't overpay for Sanchez. I'd be interested at around 4/60M but I think he will get closer to Beckett money. I'd consider an over pay on AAV for a one year deal on a guy like Haren.

 

Grienke(6/120M)

Lester

Buchholz

Haren(1/12M)/Lackey if Haren is not signed

Doubront

 

It's a solid rotation.

 

I'd be ok if they went 5/125M on Hamilton. Flip Ellsbury somewhere for pieces to acquire Upton so they don't empty the farm. Find a 1-2 year stop gap in CF. A 2014 OF of Hamilton, Bradley, and Upton is nice to think about

[Palodios]

I don't think that Gomes is all that bad of a target. He has a .380 OBP against lefties. Nava has a .370 OBP against righties.

 

Put the two together, and you get a .370-.375 OBP, .800 OPS platoon with 20-25 home runs, that can probably survive defensively in left field. All for the cost of what? 2/8 for Gomes and 1/.5 for Nava? Its not a sexy pickup by any means, but it fills a hole, and leaves the team a significant amount of money to pick up pitching.

[a700hitter]

{posted this prior to reading Jung, saying something very similar}

 

It's just unclear who is available though. I am willing to go on a limb and say that they aren't going to get a true ace this off season. There aren't those guys available. If they go down a notch to the second tier, they could drastically overpay for someone who isn't that good. I don't particularly like that option either.

 

Sadly, for all of us, I really think they are going to have to largely rely on getting Lester back to his old self, Buchholz to put together a great season, and get a few good seasons from some unexpected guys. Doubront could be at least average (if not better), Lackey has historically been much better than he was the past few years, and perhaps someone else would be a good fit or a surprise.

 

I'm not laying this all at the feet of Cherington though. If the pitcher they need isn't out there, he isn't out there. We all want them to get 2010-2011 Cliff Lee, or current Felix Hernandez or another true Ace, but those guys are truly coveted. Even Josh Johnson, who is very good, isn't at that level and isn't entirely reliable.

 

We will see where this goes. Not sure the pitching can be worked out the way we all want as quickly as we want it.

1 pitcher will not be enough IMO, unless that pitcher is Felix Hernandez, and that ain't going to happen. If we get no pitchers, we will be a last place team again. If they are lucky they will finish 4th, but they would lose more than 90 games. One pitcher could get them to .500, but no chance at a wild card. Two pitchers should make the team respectable and competitive for a Wild Card. Who is available? I'm not sure . Haren, Edwin jackson, MCCarthy, and Sanchez are a thin free agent class. Chances are that they will have to look at a trade. Pitchers will change uniforms as the off season progresses. If people want to give him advance excuses in case he doesn't get it done, that is fine. The result will be the same whether he is blamed or blameless-- a last place team not worth watching.

[a700hitter]

I don't think that Gomes is all that bad of a target. He has a .380 OBP against lefties. Nava has a .370 OBP against righties.

 

Put the two together, and you get a .370-.375 OBP, .800 OPS platoon with 20-25 home runs, that can probably survive defensively in left field. All for the cost of what? 2/8 for Gomes and 1/.5 for Nava? Its not a sexy pickup by any means, but it fills a hole, and leaves the team a significant amount of money to pick up pitching.

No, he's not a bad component part.

[SoxSport]

So the Globe now says they're paying this guy $10 million for 2 years? He was supposed to be seeking $3-4 mil per year. You figure 2/6 should have done it.

 

What's the big deal with this guy? He is basically a DH for LHP only. Below average outfielder.

A slight downgrade from Ross who wants more money.

 

The Globe suggests they now might be considering him as a full-time outfielder. I can't believe that, since he can't hit RHP. If so, it's going to be a long season for gentle Ben and his cohorts. The warning signs are there.

[a700hitter]

So the Globe now says they're paying this guy $10 million for 2 years? He was supposed to be seeking $3-4 mil per year. You figure 2/6 should have done it.

 

What's the big deal with this guy? He is basically a DH for LHP only. Below average outfielder.

A slight downgrade from Ross who wants more money.

 

The Globe suggests they now might be considering him as a full-time outfielder. I can't believe that, since he can't hit RHP. If so, it's going to be a long season for gentle Ben and his cohorts. The warning signs are there.

Last year we gave Ross a 1 year deal for $3 million.

[Bellhorn04]

So the Globe now says they're paying this guy $10 million for 2 years? He was supposed to be seeking $3-4 mil per year. You figure 2/6 should have done it.

 

Every deal we're seeing, the salaries are inflated from what you'd expect. It's just another upward price adjustment.

[SoxSport]

Every deal we're seeing, the salaries are inflated from what you'd expect. It's just another upward price adjustment.

 

I can't wait for these mediocre millionaires to pay more taxes. To think half my friggin' cable TV bill is paying their salaries. Yeah, half our cable bill goes to TV sports. :thumbdown

[Bellhorn04]

I can't wait for these mediocre millionaires to pay more taxes. To think half my friggin' cable TV bill is paying their salaries. Yeah, half our cable bill goes to TV sports. :thumbdown

 

We're the ones paying the tab alright, and like you say a big chunk of it is in our TV bills.

[SoxSport]

We're the ones paying the tab alright, and like you say a big chunk of it is in our TV bills.

 

 

You're one of the lucky ones, living in Canada. The Canadians wouldn't be crazy enough to be making sports rich with TV cable bills.

[mvp 78]

I can't wait for these mediocre millionaires to pay more taxes. To think half my friggin' cable TV bill is paying their salaries. Yeah, half our cable bill goes to TV sports. :thumbdown

 

NESN is $12, ESPN is $5. Your cable bill is only $34? Wanna trade?

[mvp 78]

You're one of the lucky ones, living in Canada. The Canadians wouldn't be crazy enough to be making sports rich with TV cable bills.

 

$10/mo for TSN. Enjoy!

[SoxSport]

NESN is $12, ESPN is $5. Your cable bill is only $34? Wanna trade?

 

My cable bill is about $100. The news story I read last Sunday says about $50 of that goes to TV sports--for all those MLB,NFL,NBA, Olympics, NCAA etc network sports contracts, and for sports channels like ESPN ($5--the highest of the non premium channels). You pay even if you don't watch sports. That's the key. There are a lot of people with cable, hence a boatload of money which ultimately gets passed onto the teams. That's what fuels the salaries--and why they keep going up.

 

It's worth it for me, since I like the MLB,NFL and NBA TV channels. I don't watch ESPN, and wish I could deduct $5 off my cable bill for not watching it. But the system approved by the Congress doesn't allow it.

 

You have to be a sports fan to get your money's worth on cable. Sorry for the OT digression.

[example1]

1 pitcher will not be enough IMO, unless that pitcher is Felix Hernandez, and that ain't going to happen. If we get no pitchers, we will be a last place team again. If they are lucky they will finish 4th, but they would lose more than 90 games. One pitcher could get them to .500, but no chance at a wild card. Two pitchers should make the team respectable and competitive for a Wild Card. Who is available? I'm not sure . Haren, Edwin jackson, MCCarthy, and Sanchez are a thin free agent class. Chances are that they will have to look at a trade. Pitchers will change uniforms as the off season progresses. If people want to give him advance excuses in case he doesn't get it done, that is fine. The result will be the same whether he is blamed or blameless-- a last place team not worth watching.

 

This might be true, but it doesn't change the reality of the FA pitching market. I'm a bit more bullish than you are on the prospects of Lester and the current crop pitching like a mid-range pitching staff (rather than bottom of the pack) but I wouldn't be willing to put any money on it.

 

At the same time, I just don't see anyone who is actively shopping good pitchers. There aren't teams with too many good pitchers. If the Sox are going to strike it big they may need to trade an established star for some prospects who could become high caliber pitchers. In fact, I think many believe they did that in the Gonzalez deal with Webster and De La Rosa, but only time will tell on that one. Unfortunately, time doesn't equal success in 2013.

[a700hitter]

This might be true, but it doesn't change the reality of the FA pitching market. I'm a bit more bullish than you are on the prospects of Lester and the current crop pitching like a mid-range pitching staff (rather than bottom of the pack) but I wouldn't be willing to put any money on it.

 

At the same time, I just don't see anyone who is actively shopping good pitchers. There aren't teams with too many good pitchers. If the Sox are going to strike it big they may need to trade an established star for some prospects who could become high caliber pitchers. In fact, I think many believe they did that in the Gonzalez deal with Webster and De La Rosa, but only time will tell on that one. Unfortunately, time doesn't equal success in 2013.

If Lackey and Doubront both shoot out the lights, we still only have 4 starters. That is just not going to enough if the 5th spot in the rotation is filled by dumpster finds like last year.

[jung]

I actually did not know what Gome was seeking. I did think that 1/$4 would have gotten it done. However I was not thinking of him as an everyday OF and it seems from some of the comments I heard today that people believe that is where the Sox are headed...kinda' interesting...not sure how you get to see him as an everyday OF against all pitchers regardless of LH or RH. That would explain both the 2 years and the $5 per year though.

[example1]

I actually did not know what Gome was seeking. I did think that 1/$4 would have gotten it done. However I was not thinking of him as an everyday OF and it seems from some of the comments I heard today that people believe that is where the Sox are headed...kinda' interesting...not sure how you get to see him as an everyday OF against all pitchers regardless of LH or RH. That would explain both the 2 years and the $5 per year though.

 

Except that he hasn't started elsewhere recently very often. I suspect it was a bit of a "come to Boston" surcharge. Bad team + rabid/angry fanbase + potentially dysfunctional clubhouse + invasive media = surcharge.

 

All in all the Sox shouldn't have any trouble paying for 1/2 of a good platoon, assuming Kalish is the other half. 5m+ for a solid batting line all year is well worth the price.

[seabeachfred]

Except that he hasn't started elsewhere recently very often. I suspect it was a bit of a "come to Boston" surcharge. Bad team + rabid/angry fanbase + potentially dysfunctional clubhouse + invasive media = surcharge.

 

All in all the Sox shouldn't have any trouble paying for 1/2 of a good platoon, assuming Kalish is the other half. 5m+ for a solid batting line all year is well worth the price.

 

Except that Gomes is a brtal fielder and can Kalish stay in one piece for a change. The guy has become a tin man the past two seasons and this may be his last chance. I hope he is working his ass out and is ready this Spring for a change. I would rather have a healthy Kalish-Gomes platoon than one with Nava. Nice yong man bt he fades badly after a cople of months. Now where the hell do we get that other otfielder? Will they finally sign Ross? He is mch better than either Gomes or Kalish at the moment.

[Elktonnick]

Except that Gomes is a brtal fielder and can Kalish stay in one piece for a change. The guy has become a tin man the past two seasons and this may be his last chance. I hope he is working his ass out and is ready this Spring for a change. I would rather have a healthy Kalish-Gomes platoon than one with Nava. Nice yong man bt he fades badly after a cople of months. Now where the hell do we get that other otfielder? Will they finally sign Ross? He is mch better than either Gomes or Kalish at the moment.

 

The purported reason for signing Gomes is that he crushes left handers, yet Ross has a better OPS against left handers and is better defensively. So if it is Gomes instead of Ross than the club is worse for the deal. If the Sox sign Ross then I am ok with the Gomes signing. But one must realize that Gomes will never be mistaken for a gold glover. He could be a real liability defensively.

[BSN07]

The purported reason for signing Gomes is that he crushes left handers, yet Ross has a better OPS against left handers and is better defensively. So if it is Gomes instead of Ross than the club is worse for the deal. If the Sox sign Ross then I am ok with the Gomes signing. But one must realize that Gomes will never be mistaken for a gold glover. He could be a real liability defensively.

 

You can't look at it Ross vs Gomes. Gomes is probably not coming in to fill the same role as Ross did last season. I've said it before it's Gomes/Kalish(Nava) vs Ross in terms of looking at it from a production stand point. Add the fact its Gomes making 5M a year and the other half of the platoon making league minimum vs 8M a year(hypothetically since he hasn't signed) from Ross who will also take more years to sign.

 

If you look at it Ross vs Gomes straight up, it's a loss because of Gomes Defense. But when other variables are considered I consider it more of a wash production-cost wise and therefore it's a good move IMO.

[example1]

Fangraphs actually puts their value at roughly equal the past two seasons with quite a bit less playing time for Gomes. Ross may be a slightly better platoon but if he gets disgruntled in that role and ends up playing more than is maximal then he actually detracts from his value. In the past few seasons I've heard no complaints from Gomes about his specific role, which means he might be better suited to platooning. I don't know. I liked Ross but he's not worth getting too upset over.

[Behindenemylines]

I think Gomes was brought in to platoon with a healthy Kalish or someone else). I think if you compare the platoon numbers with C Ross numbers you don't lose with the bat. Ross is not that great with the glove, but Gomes is a drop off from that. Overall, I think the Sox lose a little with this signing unless they have upgrades at 1B and the other OF position that will balance out this signing. For what ever its worth Gomes was a positive influence in the young A's clubhouse and was loved by his teammates.

[SoxSport]

I actually did not know what Gome was seeking. I did think that 1/$4 would have gotten it done. However I was not thinking of him as an everyday OF and it seems from some of the comments I heard today that people believe that is where the Sox are headed...kinda' interesting...not sure how you get to see him as an everyday OF against all pitchers regardless of LH or RH. That would explain both the 2 years and the $5 per year though.

 

He may have gotten one or two other offers which pushed the price up.Hard to see him not platooned in LF.He is also DH insurance.

[seabeachfred]

1 pitcher will not be enough IMO, unless that pitcher is Felix Hernandez, and that ain't going to happen. If we get no pitchers, we will be a last place team again. If they are lucky they will finish 4th, but they would lose more than 90 games. One pitcher could get them to .500, but no chance at a wild card. Two pitchers should make the team respectable and competitive for a Wild Card. Who is available? I'm not sure . Haren, Edwin jackson, MCCarthy, and Sanchez are a thin free agent class. Chances are that they will have to look at a trade. Pitchers will change uniforms as the off season progresses. If people want to give him advance excuses in case he doesn't get it done, that is fine. The result will be the same whether he is blamed or blameless-- a last place team not worth watching.

 

Those 4 are better than what we have if we are looking for pitchers who could slide into a No.1 or 2 slot if necessary. Haren could and so could Sanchez. Jackson and McCarthy are still better than our Nos 3 and 4. Look let's all face some bald facts and shove pollyannism somewhere the sun doesn't shine, at least for a moment------Last year proved conclsively that Lester and Buchholz are not physically and especially mentally equipped to handle the top two jobs, and if some of you don't want to accept it then it is your problem. We need pitching; the ones out there are better than what we have; Lester and Buck are not of the stuff to lead a staff, and Cherington has to rise to the occasion and get them. We have the money.....we need to spend it and get the team up to speed.

[SoxSport]

Jim Bowden just tweeted Napoli wants 4 yrs from the Red Sox. He may ask Seattle to give him 4 yrs.

Napoli just turned 31 last month. 4 yrs is not unreasonable. We'll see if Ben can pull the trigger.

[example1]

Those 4 are better than what we have if we are looking for pitchers who could slide into a No.1 or 2 slot if necessary. Haren could and so could Sanchez. Jackson and McCarthy are still better than our Nos 3 and 4. Look let's all face some bald facts and shove pollyannism somewhere the sun doesn't shine, at least for a moment------Last year proved conclsively that Lester and Buchholz are not physically and especially mentally equipped to handle the top two jobs, and if some of you don't want to accept it then it is your problem. We need pitching; the ones out there are better than what we have; Lester and Buck are not of the stuff to lead a staff, and Cherington has to rise to the occasion and get them. We have the money.....we need to spend it and get the team up to speed.

 

To be clear, prior to last season, Lester had 4 consecutive seasons where his WAR was better than Sanchez's best season of his career. He's 28 years old. It is absolutely foolish to think that he's all washed up. Cliff Lee put up -0.9 WAR at his age 28 season and won the Cy Young the next season. It is even more absurd to make claims about it being "our problem" if some of us aren't willing to assume Sanchez or McCarthy would be better. McCarthy has put up a 2.9 and 2.0 WAR season the last two years. The 4 seasons prior to 2012 Lester put up between 4.1 and 5.9 every season.

 

You want to know what it is to believe that most teams would rather have Sanchez or McCarthy than Lester? Laughable. Absolutely laughable. Your blowhard proclamations make you sound silly and uninformed. Sorry if you don't want to believe it, but its true.

 

I would agree that the Sox should go get one of these guys, but to say that they would be able to easily slide into a #1 or #2 over a pitcher like Lester is over the top.

[BSN07]

Jim Bowden just tweeted Napoli wants 4 yrs from the Red Sox. He may ask Seattle to give him 4 yrs.

Napoli just turned 31 last month. 4 yrs is not unreasonable. We'll see if Ben can pull the trigger.

 

It's not unreasonable. Interested to see what the AAV is. If it's 12-15M, I'd be ok with that. But I can also see Seattle overpaying to get him. Something the Sox probably should not do.