Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

[BSN07]

Kuroda sounds like he's heading back to LA

 

Ya, SoCal seems to be his ideal landing spot. I think he could sign with any of the teams in California.

 

 

 

Hamilton even with all the issues is intriguing. But certain things need to be in place for it to work IMO. It needs to be a 4 max 5 year deal. If they want to add some club options in there just in case he's a HR(pun intended) in Boston I'd be ok with that too. But they need protection in the way of verbal protection in the contract if the wheels fall off. They also need a program in place similar or even stricter then the one he had in Texas. And he needs to be ok with it. They also need a good plan of how the media will have access to him. Don't get me wrong, there is good reporting done in the Boston media. But there is a lot of BS stirred up just to feed the media monster. I don't know exactly how they should handle it. But they need to be prepared.

 

 

Now if all that is handled accordingly then looking at his contract I think you look at it as 2 years in the OF and then takes over at DH for Ortiz for the remainder of the deal. 20-25M is a lot for a DH, but I don't mind the higher AAV to keep the length of the deal short.

 

It's a lot of hurdles, but it's not impossible. It's hard to argue the impact his bat would have on the line up.

 

The Hot Stove must be getting to me, I seem to be much more at ease with going after Hamilton and Grienke then I was early on this off season

[jung]

The Hot Stove must be getting to me, I seem to be much more at ease with going after Hamilton and Grienke then I was early on this off season

 

What might be getting to you is that guys are disappearing off the board and the Sox so far have a Catcher their returning DH and a Manager in hand.

[Station 13]

Getting out of Texas may help Hamilton preserved his career. He average just around 130 games the last 3 year there. Who thought it was a good idea to built that ballpark without a roof?

[User Name]

But they need protection in the way of verbal protection in the contract if the wheels fall off. They also need a program in place similar or even stricter then the one he had in Texas. And he needs to be ok with it. They also need a good plan of how the media will have access to him. Don't get me wrong, there is good reporting done in the Boston media. But there is a lot of BS stirred up just to feed the media monster. I don't know exactly how they should handle it. But they need to be prepared.

 

By verbal protection, do you mean contract language a la JD Drew? And do you think there's a way to protect Hamilton from the Boston media monster? Because if there isn't, he's not a fit.

[BSN07]

By verbal protection, do you mean contract language a la JD Drew? And do you think there's a way to protect Hamilton from the Boston media monster? Because if there isn't, he's not a fit.

 

Yes like Drew or Lackey's deal. Something that will help the team if s*** hits the fan so to speak.

 

I think they can find some way of helping him get comfortable in Boston. No ideas on how to do it, just seems to me that the team should be able to protect him so to speak if it's needed.

[Behindenemylines]

Any future FA will avoid the Marlins and their verbal no-trade agreements. Both Reyes and Buerhle are not happy campers because of the sh_ _ that the Marlins pulled. An Stanton is pissed and will leave as soon as he can. As far as Hamilton and any possibility of the Sox showing interest in him, if they do it has to be a short years contract at big $$$$. If Hamilton sees that there is no long term contract out there he might take a 2 year 25 mil contract from the Sox. If it doesn't work and it blows up the experiment is over in two years and the kids will be ready by then. If it does work then they can approach Hamilton like they did Ortiz or just let him walk with the kids ready at that point. Hamilton would probably be at the stage in his career that he moves to DH at that point. That can only happen if there are no long term contracts out there for him.

[example1]

Hamilton would certainly make the top of the lineup formidable. He looked overwhelmed in the playoffs so some assessment would need to be made about whether that is a concern or a cold streak.

 

Honestly I'm not convinced that he's the guy they ought to drop 20m+ on for the next 4-5 years. However, I don't see other foundational players becoming available in the next few years. If Braun or Votto were up for FA it might be harder to consider Hamilton.

[Palodios]

Hamilton would certainly make the top of the lineup formidable. He looked overwhelmed in the playoffs so some assessment would need to be made about whether that is a concern or a cold streak.

 

Honestly I'm not convinced that he's the guy they ought to drop 20m+ on for the next 4-5 years. However, I don't see other foundational players becoming available in the next few years. If Braun or Votto were up for FA it might be harder to consider Hamilton.

 

I'm starting to think that Mike Napoli might be that foundational player. He has a .863 career OPS, with most of that coming from LAA and the AL West's caverns. If he played 150 games every year, he'd be a 30 home run hitter. Getting off his knees to 1B will keep him healthier and perhaps more productive-- but he can catch for interleague games if we want Ortiz in the lineup. He has World Series experience. He's been a monster at Fenway, and the Red Sox really have no 1B prospects in the system.

 

Plus, the Red Sox are actually interested in him.

[User Name]

I'm starting to think that Mike Napoli might be that foundational player. He has a .863 career OPS, with most of that coming from LAA and the AL West's caverns. If he played 150 games every year, he'd be a 30 home run hitter. Getting off his knees to 1B will keep him healthier and perhaps more productive-- but he can catch for interleague games if we want Ortiz in the lineup. He has World Series experience. He's been a monster at Fenway, and the Red Sox really have no 1B prospects in the system.

 

Plus, the Red Sox are actually interested in him.

 

Lots of "what ifs" regarding Napoli and his production, but not a lot of them regarding Hamilton, other than health. Napoli's not in the same class offensively as Hamilton regardless of his monster 2011. He's a complimentary piece (albeit a very nice one), not a guy you build a lineup around.

 

In an ideal world, the Sox get both on shorter term deals.

[Palodios]

Lots of "what ifs" regarding Napoli and his production, but not a lot of them regarding Hamilton, other than health. Napoli's not in the same class offensively as Hamilton regardless of his monster 2011. He's a complimentary piece (albeit a very nice one), not a guy you build a lineup around.

 

In an ideal world, the Sox get both on shorter term deals.

 

Napoli's career OPS -- .863.

Hamilton's career OPS -- 913.

 

Is that .50 OPS difference worth an extra 100-150 million to you?

[example1]

Napoli's career OPS -- .863.

Hamilton's career OPS -- 913.

 

Is that .50 OPS difference worth an extra 100-150 million to you?

 

From everything I've seen most people aren't comfortable with paying Hamilton anything that would make him 100-150 million more expensive than Napoli. The only way Hamilton makes sense is on a shorter deal, 4 years maybe. For that short period it might cost 100m. It's unlikely that he would take it but if the AAV were high enough he might.

 

Let's say Napoli is asking for 4 years plus an option, at 12m a year. That's 48-60m. Nowhere near 100-150 more.

 

Your point stands though: how much more valuable is a guy like Hamilton than a guy like Napoli, especially with Napoli's cheaper cost and higher OBP skills. If Hamilton has one of his "great" years then his value is off the charts. If he does what he usually does he's very valuable, but he's not an MVP and likely not worth 20+m.

[redsoxrules]

Napoli's career OPS -- .863.

Hamilton's career OPS -- 913.

 

Is that .50 OPS difference worth an extra 100-150 million to you?

 

How do you figure an extra 100-150 MIL ?

 

Napoli isn't going to come cheap .

[Palodios]

How do you figure an extra 100-150 MIL ?

 

Napoli isn't going to come cheap .

 

Those numbers are based on Hamilton getting huge money. Which he will. I would not be surprised if Napoli gets 50-80 million.

[User Name]

Napoli's career OPS -- .863.

Hamilton's career OPS -- 913.

 

Is that .50 OPS difference worth an extra 100-150 million to you?

 

So Hamilton's getting 100 mill more than Napoli? Doubtful.

[User Name]

From everything I've seen most people aren't comfortable with paying Hamilton anything that would make him 100-150 million more expensive than Napoli. The only way Hamilton makes sense is on a shorter deal, 4 years maybe. For that short period it might cost 100m. It's unlikely that he would take it but if the AAV were high enough he might.

 

Let's say Napoli is asking for 4 years plus an option, at 12m a year. That's 48-60m. Nowhere near 100-150 more.

 

Your point stands though: how much more valuable is a guy like Hamilton than a guy like Napoli, especially with Napoli's cheaper cost and higher OBP skills. If Hamilton has one of his "great" years then his value is off the charts. If he does what he usually does he's very valuable, but he's not an MVP and likely not worth 20+m.

 

But how much cheaper is Napoli going to be? Also, there's the fact that Napoli has only had one really good year. There's something to be said for expected value, and Napoli's been a year-in, year-out wild card production wise.

 

Now, don't take this as me saying i wouldn't want Napoli with his big power, OBP numbers and positional flexibility. I'm saying that between the two of them, without a massive difference in money , i would take Hamilton. In reality, i would take both on shorter deals.

 

A lineup of:

 

Cf Ellsbury

2B Pedroia

Lf Hamilton

1B Napoli

Dh Ortiz

3b Middlebrooks

Rf Kalish (or insert OF here)

C Lavarnway

Ss Ciriaco/Iglesias

 

Is not too shabby. But that's probably not going to happen and they'll sign neither of them.

[example1]

So Hamilton's getting 100 mill more than Napoli? Doubtful.

 

Well, I would say it's possible that he does get that, he just won't get it from the Red Sox.

 

I could see Napoli getting a 4 year, 48m (12m AAV) deal and Hamilton getting a 7 year, 148m deal (21m AAV). The Sox just won't be involved in that case (except perhaps on the Napoli end).

[User Name]

Well, I would say it's possible that he does get that, he just won't get it from the Red Sox.

 

I could see Napoli getting a 4 year, 48m (12m AAV) deal and Hamilton getting a 7 year, 148m deal (21m AAV). The Sox just won't be involved in that case (except perhaps on the Napoli end).

 

Well i figure otherwise. I think Texas' stance on him is an indicator of the type of contract he should be getting. The "stupid GM" factor could be at play here, but the guy has too many demons chasing him.

[Palodios]

Well i figure otherwise. I think Texas' stance on him is an indicator of the type of contract he should be getting. The "stupid GM" factor could be at play here, but the guy has too many demons chasing him.

 

The "Stupid GM" factor is always in play. Whenever the home team lowballs a guy, the player usually gets 2 extra years on top of it. Sometimes it ends up being a team on the brink of relevance-- like the Nats with Jason Werth-- or a team looking for a ring like the Tigers with Fielder.

[example1]

Well i figure otherwise. I think Texas' stance on him is an indicator of the type of contract he should be getting. The "stupid GM" factor could be at play here, but the guy has too many demons chasing him.

 

Again, my point was premised on a team being stupid. I don't think a 7 year, 21m/per deal would be a good deal for anyone. However, I can't say I'd be shocked if, say, the Nationals or someone made a play like that.

[User Name]

Wouldn't that apply to Napoli as well then? It goes both ways, otherwise the premise is flawed.

[example1]

Wouldn't that apply to Napoli as well then? It goes both ways, otherwise the premise is flawed.

 

Yes, but I think there's a perception that Hamilton is in the elite class of players a la Miggy and A-Rod (pre-sucking), whereas Napoli is in a lower tier. I would think fewer GMs have those stars in their eyes about Napoli than Hamilton and if a team sees Hamilton as that final piece they will pay exponentially more for him than a guy like Napoli. Just a hypothesis. I won't be shocked if Arran like WAS, BAL or MIL pay way too much for too long.

[jung]

I would bet to much but not to long.

[User Name]

Yes, but I think there's a perception that Hamilton is in the elite class of players a la Miggy and A-Rod (pre-sucking), whereas Napoli is in a lower tier. I would think fewer GMs have those stars in their eyes about Napoli than Hamilton and if a team sees Hamilton as that final piece they will pay exponentially more for him than a guy like Napoli. Just a hypothesis. I won't be shocked if Arran like WAS, BAL or MIL pay way too much for too long.

 

But there's the caveat of positional scarcity. Napoli is the best C in a thin class, and he can actually hit out of that position, which is a valuable commodity. Hamilton has all of his baggage, plus a relatively deep OF class. There will be a significant difference, the question is how significant, because on a 30 mill difference with the same amount of years, i go Hamilton. Then again, it's just an opinion.

[SoxSport]

I think it's good Hamilton has flaws--otherwise he would still be in Texas. Most of these guys have flaws of some kind. Pujols might be declining. AdGon has lost some of his stroke--maybe his shoulder. Fielder has his dad's body, and his dad didn't last beyond age 34. They all will be overpaid within a few years. The trick is to get Hamilton for under 5 years. I have my doubts that will happen--too many greedy owners out there.

 

The Red Sox have been quiet, and haven't tipped their hand. We'll see what Henry does. Cherington says they will be big spenders. There aren't a lot of big tickets out there after Hamilton and Greinke.

I doubt Greinke more than Hamilton. One pitcher (Bard) with head problems is enough.

[mvp 78]

Yeah, it's totally good news that he has a horrible addiction to drugs and due to his history, his body will breakdown earlier in life than someone who doesn't struggle with sobriety. Fantastic! I'd give that kind of guy millions of dollars and wouldn't havd any concerns about the ROI.

 

Also, his eyes are so blue that he's horrible in day games (his assertion). He doesn't finish the season strong. But maybe he can underthrow some balls up in to monster seats. Now that'd be must see tv.

[jung]

The guys that know Hamilton best, the team that has spent the past few years sharing his fate, working with him to help him his demons in a box has publicly stated that they will not offer Hamilton more than three years. That is likely going to set the tone for years in a way that will have an impact on the final result.

 

I suspect a four year deal is very likely with a five year deal being as far as anybody might be willing to go....In my view there simply will not enough genuine interest from enough different players to drive it to something like seven years.

[BSN07]

The Royals are listening to offers for Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, and even Wil Myers.

 

Couple intriguing names there.

[example1]

Couple intriguing names there.

 

What pieces would the Sox have that match up well with what the Royals want? Unless they're willing to move a guy like Webster I doubt they make a great partner here.

[SoxFanForsyth]

What pieces would the Sox have that match up well with what the Royals want? Unless they're willing to move a guy like Webster I doubt they make a great partner here.

 

I would absolutely give up Webster for Alex Gordon. He's a stud.

 

Also, Hosmer and Wil Myers would be extremely intriguing for 1B.

 

I could certainly see the Sox pulling a deal for Gordon and Hosmer.

 

EDIT: Actually I think the Royals would be much more willing to part with Butler than Hosmer, and I think Butler would be an excellent fit at Fenway.

[example1]

I would absolutely give up Webster for Alex Gordon. He's a stud.

 

Also, Hosmer and Wil Myers would be extremely intriguing for 1B.

 

I could certainly see the Sox pulling a deal for Gordon and Hosmer.

 

All these guys have something nice to offer. Gordon seems like a natural fit for LF, with plenty of risk since his defense would be a big reason to go after him. His offensive numbers have been impressive the past few years too, so I'd go for that.

 

Hosmer's potential is really high.

 

I'm just not sure that either of these guys would be worth clearing out the farm for. Webster, sure, but they need all the minor league pitching depth they can get so much beyond that (say De La Rosa or Owens) would really be prohibitive. I would think the Royals would want young, cost-controlled players. Perhaps a deal around Kalish and Webser could land a guy like Gordon.