How about Daniel Bard so far?

[User Name]

Read my post again. I believe I said that "yes' date=' its early" somewhere in there. I also said that so far there is little if anything to be encouraged about.[/quote']

 

That's all negated by saying that Jacko's points were "spot on" because he said the Bard experiment was already a failure. Apparently you're the one who didn't fully read Jacko's posts beforehand, no offense.

[FredLynn]

That's all negated by saying that Jacko's points were "spot on" because he said the Bard experiment was already a failure. Apparently you're the one who didn't fully read Jacko's posts beforehand' date=' no offense.[/quote']

 

Bard's velo is dropping and his breaking ball has disappeared. This is a regression. Now obviously, you dont really have a better option right now, so you are stuck with him. Maybe this is just a little dead arm and he gets back to the 9K/9IP pace he was on in April. But with every passing start, it is pretty obvious that his stuff has dropping in the heavier starting role, and that looks more and more like a failed experiment.

 

All of this is accurate, espcecially the part about "looking like a failed experiment". That IS the way it looks right now. Whether it continues is anyone's guess; its early. I stand by my original post.

And no offense taken.

[User Name]

"What it looks like" right now matters little. It's an 8-start sample, and he's been serviceable at the back-end of the rotation. How does that look like failure?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Just thought about something -

 

I wonder if the Red Sox will be tempted to go after Greinke, either in a trade or as a FA, since they have McClure as the pitching coach. That could be very beneficial to Greinke, having that comfort level.

[FredLynn]

"What it looks like" right now matters little. It's an 8-start sample' date=' and he's been serviceable at the back-end of the rotation. How does that look like failure?[/quote']

 

His velocity is down and his command is nonexistant. If I had to try to find a single thing that is encouraging about this experiment right now, I wouldn't be able to find anything other than "its early". But that isn't a performance measure, is it.

What performance measures are YOU encouraged by so far?

[jung]

The Sox had few tangible options for a 5th starter in April and with Cook's fast departure due to injury they have few today.

 

Aceves was the only other tangible option in April and when you stacked Bard up to Aceves, given the flexibility, the value that Aceves represented pitching out of the pen, the Sox could ill afford to put him in the rotation in the 5 hole instead of Bard.

 

Last we saw Bard in September of the previous year he was having difficulty in his single inning stints bridging to Paps. There was simply no logic to moving Aceves to the rotation in order to keep Bard in it.

 

I do think we can see in this starting role why the Sox might have given up on Bard as a closer if in fact that is what happened resulting in the acquisition of Bailey. Would we have wanted to trust Bard with the 9th inning given his propensity to simply lose focus completely....do I really need to remind us of Mr Balk?

 

Of course the Sox could have gone out and gotten another starter but they decided not to do that leaving them with Bard or Ace.

 

Bard does appear to be falling off some now and maybe the added load is getting to him. I still think that Bard as experiment was more packaging than reality. The Sox needed Bard in that 5th starter role given the corner they had boxed themselves into and that was that. That is the reality.

 

There is certainly now the possibility that Bard will be one of the casualties of a season that has been predicated on the Sox vision of how they planned on recovering from the FO fiasco's of recent years.

 

The Sox decided against bringing in another true starting pitcher cause they did not want to pay for one and opted instead to choose between Bard and Ace and then see what they could flesh out of the band of misfits that they brought in.

 

Seems to me that now that we are into the season we have to some extent lost track of how we got here. The Sox tied the purse strings at least for this season and at the very least it meant no starting pitcher of any real stature of any kind was hired. Cook was likely the closest thing to it and he certainly was not ready to start for the Sox in April.

[Bellhorn04]

His velocity is down and his command is nonexistant. If I had to try to find a single thing that is encouraging about this experiment right now, I wouldn't be able to find anything other than "its early". But that isn't a performance measure, is it.

What performance measures are YOU encouraged by so far?

 

He's gone at least 5 innings in every start. He's averaging 6 innings per start. The most runs he's given up in any start is 5.

 

I agree his overall numbers are no better than mediocre, and the walks absolutely have to come down. But he isn't getting beaten around either.

[a700hitter]

He's gone at least 5 innings in every start. He's averaging 6 innings per start. The most runs he's given up in any start is 5.

 

I agree his overall numbers are no better than mediocre, and the walks absolutely have to come down. But he isn't getting beaten around either.

If the plan was to convert an elite late inning bull pen guy into a capable, but average 5th starter, they have succeeded. I don't think that is a good plan.

[Bellhorn04]

If the plan was to convert an elite late inning bull pen guy into a capable' date=' but average 5th starter, they have succeeded. I don't think that is a good plan.[/quote']

 

I'm pretty sure they're hoping for him to be better and are working with him on the things he has to improve on. Whether he will actually improve, nobody can say at this point.

[Bellhorn04]

One of the issues that hasn't been touched here is, how do you actually determine the value of a reliever compared to the value of a starter? I don't think anybody here is really qualified to answer that. If you buy into WAR valuations, the highest WAR Mariano Rivera has had since he became a closer was 3.3 (per FanGraphs), whereas the highest Verlander has had is 8.3. A lot of that obviously comes from the difference in innings pitched.

 

Bard's highest WAR to date has been 1.8.

[a700hitter]

I'm pretty sure they're hoping for him to be better and are working with him on the things he has to improve on. Whether he will actually improve' date=' nobody can say at this point.[/quote']He has not been showing any improvement over 10 starts. He has regressed if anything.

[Bellhorn04]

He has not been showing any improvement over 10 starts. He has regressed if anything.

 

Sure, but it might just take some little adjustment in his mechanics or his approach for him to suddenly improve. It's not like his ability is deteriorating every game.

 

Obviously I'm looking at this from the optimistic viewpoint. I understand why the other viewpoint is there too.

[Dojji]

He has not been showing any improvement over 10 starts. He has regressed if anything.

 

I think he's shown more improvement than people let on. Don't forget that they reworked his mechanics a bit -- they have to, a starter couldn't get by on his old ones. He needs to get his new mechanics down, and that takes reps. He's getting enough outs right now to suggest that he's making progress, even if he's not overpowering people yet. The ability to make the big pitch when he desperately needs it, is frequently an advanced sign that he's getting back to being able to make the big pitch whenever he wants. Once he crosses that hurdle, I think he'll be more than fine.

[a700hitter]

Sure, but it might just take some little adjustment in his mechanics or his approach for him to suddenly improve. It's not like his ability is deteriorating every game.

 

Obviously I'm looking at this from the optimistic viewpoint. I understand why the other viewpoint is there too.

We're still waiting for things to change direction. His velocity has been deteriorating.

[FredLynn]

He's gone at least 5 innings in every start. He's averaging 6 innings per start. The most runs he's given up in any start is 5.

 

I agree his overall numbers are no better than mediocre, and the walks absolutely have to come down. But he isn't getting beaten around either.

 

OK, fair enough. His ERA of 4.69, I wonder how that compares to other #5 SP in the league. Still, he was an excellent slam-the-door type of RP and now we are discussing whether or not he is an effective #5 SP. I think I would rather have an excellent RP than a questionable #5 SP on my team. Those guys are a dime a dozen.

[jung]

Well ya' but last we saw of Bard in that "slam the door" role he had turned that into more of a "left the door ajar" kind of deal.

 

Not sure he is really well suited to that long term either. In fact looking at how he sometimes folds up like a house of cards under the slightest bit of pressure (like one guy on base) I am not sure he is well suited to that role. Do we really want to see him called in from the pen and roll out a couple balks in a row?

[FredLynn]

Well ya' but last we saw of Bard in that "slam the door" role he had turned that into more of a "left the door ajar" kind of deal.

 

Not sure he is really well suited to that long term either. In fact looking at how he sometimes folds up like a house of cards under the slightest bit of pressure (like one guy on base) I am not sure he is well suited to that role. Do we really want to see him called in from the pen and roll out a couple balks in a row?

 

He wilted at the end of last year due to overuse. Look at his ERA from May to Sept 1. He dominated.

[Station 13]

He wilted at the end of last year due to overuse. Look at his ERA from May to Sept 1. He dominated.

 

Funny, a couple of bad outings and everyone had the panties twisted. He ended the season with a 0.95 WHIP pitching at Fenway, AL East. Carrer as a reliever at Fenway: 1.71 ERA, 0.85 WHIP. He was absolutely lights out 95% of the time and people think he should be 110%.

[jung]

Amazing how we want to pick the stats that suit us.

 

What I said was when last we saw him in the relief role he was not slamming the door shut but was more leaving it ajar. You want to give him an out for it fine but you cannot deny what was not even close to "lights out" for that period.

 

Batting average against went up by 100 points....OPS went up by 250 and OBP by 200 points.

 

But those are not the most disconcerting stats to me. Most disconcerting to me is that his BB/SO almost went to a 1:1 ratio, far worse than at any time last year by a very wide margin. His BB/SO was more like 4 SO to ever 1 walk, sometimes as high as 7 SO for every 1 walk.

 

Low and behold what is the biggest problem he has had this year...surprise....surprise it is his BB/SO which continues this year at something like 1:1, 29:28 to be exact. So that trend has not gone away. In fact it is still here in spades. In fact BA against, OBP and OPS for Bard this year are remarkably like the worst numbers he recorded for any period last year. While maybe not as disconcerting as his BB/SO none the less sort of makes the argument that he was just a shot load at the end of last year a little hard to swallow.

 

Combine that with the way he has lost focus....not just lost it but completely lost it under what for a shut the door relief pitcher would be marginal pressure and I am not at all confident that he would do well in that spot were he in it this year.

 

I continue to believe that the Sox went to the expense of bringing in a Bailey as a closer, turning 180* away from the plan they had for Bard in the process because they no longer believed in the plan.

 

The Starting Role may be the best Bard can hope for at this point because I really don't know what they do with him if he fails as a starter. Based on his numbers and the way he has responded to pressure, at this point it would likely not be best to put him into a really demanding, pressure packed spot if in fact he comes out of the rotation.

 

If his numbers are no better than they are today when his innings pitched and the return of some other arms forces him from the rotation, where they put him at that point will be most interesting indeed. I doubt he will close unless Ace falls apart because whether we like it or not, V seems now to believe in Ace and I see nothing in what Bard is doing that will convince him that he should pull a guy he believes in who is closing for someone who has not done it at all this year.

 

The biggest problem this pitching staff has as a whole is that for a team that we WANT to view as contending, it has the largest stable of mediocre pitching when taken as a group that I have seen in a long long time.

[mvp 78]

He wilted at the end of last year due to overuse. Look at his ERA from May to Sept 1. He dominated.

 

He pitched 40 innings less than Aceves. Not sure 73 innings is really overused. Tito was no Dusty Baker.

 

If Tito didn't use Bard, "well that's another loss to blame on Tito." (The running theme in the offseason was Tito cost the Sox 15ish games.)

 

If Tito used Bard, "well he's tired because Tito has used him too much."

[Bellhorn04]

OK' date=' fair enough. His ERA of 4.69, I wonder how that compares to other #5 SP in the league. Still, he was an excellent slam-the-door type of RP and now we are discussing whether or not he is an effective #5 SP. I think I would rather have an excellent RP than a questionable #5 SP on my team. [b']Those guys are a dime a dozen.[/b]

 

But as I said earlier, what Bard is giving us so far this year is a lot better than what Lackey, DiceK, Wakefield, Miller, Weiland or Bedard gave us last year. The lack of a decent back end of the rotation really hurt us last year.

[MANNYHOF24]

He pitched 40 innings less than Aceves. Not sure 73 innings is really overused. Tito was no Dusty Baker.

 

If Tito didn't use Bard, "well that's another loss to blame on Tito." (The running theme in the offseason was Tito cost the Sox 15ish games.)

 

If Tito used Bard, "well he's tired because Tito has used him too much."

 

 

 

Total f***ing ********

[mvp 78]

Total f***ing ********

 

I agree. It wasn't my pov.

[User Name]

Let me just say i think Tito did overuse Bard quite a bit in late August/September which caused him to burn out. The question is, what other choice did he have with Sox starters averaging about 5 IP/game in that span and Bard being his most effective non-closer reliever?

[FredLynn]

Let me just say i think Tito did overuse Bard quite a bit in late August/September which caused him to burn out. The question is' date=' what other choice did he have with Sox starters averaging about 5 IP/game in that span and Bard being his most effective non-closer reliever?[/quote']

 

Exactly correct. I said in my post that Bard burned out from overuse late in the season, but Tito didn't really have much of a choice. I never blamed the manager for this situation, as MVP insinuated. It was simply an unfortunate circumstance where there were no other reliable options for the 8th inning.

Here are the amazing statistics he compiled for the vast majority of the 2011 season:

He gave up four runs in the first game, but after that, from April 5 to Sept 1:

ERA: 1.47

OPSa: .456

BAA: .147

K/BB: 62/14

He went unscored upon from May 27 to July 31 (24 appearances).

After Aug 31:

ERA: 10.64

OPSa: .768

BAA: .256

K/BB: 11/9

He appeared in 43% of the games last year including 18 appearances in which he was asked to pitch more than one inning. To me, thats overuse, regardless of how many innings he totalled for the year. And his velocity was maintained for the whole season, still throwing his fastball at 96+ in his last appearance according to pitch fx.

So when Jung says that "he left the door ajar", that is correct only if you compare him to a robot who allows zero runs. Compared to other human relief pitchers he had a remarkably successful season last year. He simply dominated until he apparently burned out.

Now he is a #5 SP of questionable value, and its sad to see that he has fallen so far.

[jung]

OK so maybe this is semantics. A number of Sox pitchers got overused last year including Paps. However does it not appear that Paps has recovered from being overused late last season?

 

It does not appear to me that Bard has recovered from whatever has gotten to him. He is pitching much like he pitched the end of last year. As a starter he cannot be expected to rear back and find 96 mph on his FB but what is interesting is that his BB/SO is basically today what it was then. So he maintained his velo through last year but still could not get back the BB/SO ratio. He is not reaching back for 96 mph as a starter but the BB/SO is basically the same as it was the end of last year.

 

So it appears to me that there is something more serious going on with Bard.

 

Maybe Bard will forever be lost in the middle.....has an arm that can throw lightning bolts but for single inning stints.....sounds like a closer.... No??? But maybe Bard does not have it as a Closer between the ears. The way he has lost focus under very modest pressure this year would suggest that you would not trust him in high pressure, high intensity situations like closing.

 

Maybe that is Bard's saga. His talent is what keeps you coming back for more but I am beginning to think he is a riddle that nobody has solved as yet...maybe nobody will. He has a Closer's arm but it is attached to a head that is to easily distracted and never seems very confident. I am not sure I have ever seen Bard carry himself like you would expect a big arm. mayor league pitcher to carry himself.

 

I keep coming back to the fact that the Sox clearly diverted Bard from the path that they had him on...a path that they had invested a good it of time and money into....choosing instead to bring in Bailey and pay for the privilege for that matter.

 

When Bailey went down we focused a good deal of attention here on the fact that Bard did not move to the closer's role. Maybe what we should have been focusing on was that it appeared that the Sox did not ask him to move there. Do we really think we know more about what he is capable of than they do?

 

So where does he go from here? I have said here many times that I think he has performed admirably as a #5 when comparing him to other 5's. Now that Buch has found real trouble Bard is likely the 4th best starter on this team right now.

 

If he does not have the head for closing or high pressure situations generally, then maybe his fate is to play this starters role out or at least try to. If that does not work out then like it or not maybe his ends up in that growing pile of guys that perform in middle relief at one of the the game or the other.

[User Name]

Or it could be an adjustment period to becoming a starter, and he needs mechanical adjustments. Not enough time has gone by for the tinfoil hat theories to start.

[jung]

Or it could be an adjustment period to becoming a starter, and he needs mechanical adjustments. Not enough time has gone by for the tinfoil hat theories to start.

 

I think that based on what we have seen, starting may be the role that best suits him. I do tend to think that he needs more work and more help in that regard.

 

This is really an oddball situation. In a perfect world you might have said "OK, we screwed up. Bard is not a closer. How do we transition him to a ML starter without sending him down as a part of that process". That appears to me to be the big mismatch here. In doing it this way....the player and coaches are asking of themselves something that I think is pretty rare. They are asking themselves to learn and provide tools that would normally be learned and provided at a different level of baseball while asking the player to actually play at the highest level of baseball.

 

But at the end of the day, the Sox really did not have anybody else to put in the 5 hole at the start of the season which has been in part my point all along. They did not bring in a legitimate pitcher to round out the rotation. They left themselves with a choice between Aceves and Bard which to me had Bard to the rotation written all over it. So I think Bard to the rotation became a necessity, the reality of where the Sox had left themselves which is not the way the Sox packaged this idea.

 

Now I do think the Sox are really getting the benefit in the sense that he has performed well as a 5 and the Sox have a bull pen that is rounding out and soon to be choking on the numbers of pitchers it has available to it for the relief role. I do think they could do more to advance Bard's progress as a starter. That view is admittedly from afar but based on how I see them working with Doubront, the obvious care and attention he gets vs what Bard gets....at least to my eyes.

[seabeachfred]

But as I said earlier' date=' what Bard is giving us so far this year is a lot better than what Lackey, DiceK, Wakefield, Miller, Weiland or Bedard gave us last year. The lack of a decent back end of the rotation really hurt us last year.[/quote']

 

Maybe so Bob, but let me let you in on a little secret......The lack of a decent back end of the rotation isn't exactly helping us much this year either.

[Dojji]

Maybe so Bob' date=' but let me let you in on a little secret......The lack of a decent back end of the rotation isn't exactly helping us much this year either.[/quote']

 

Actually the back end of our rotation is one of our greatest strengths this year. Especially Doubront, but Bard has helped us too.