2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[ipot]

iortiz' date=' you don't trade a player like Ellsbury for some third rate pitcher; in fact, I would be reluctant to trade him at all. But...if we do we need a Hanson for him or part of a trade for King Felix, not a No. 3 or some hot flashing rookie. As you said untouchable for untouchable.[/quote']

 

Hey there, Fred. Haven't posted here recently. I am not of "Team Trade Ellsbury." You would absolutely have to wow me. Felix level or bust. Id we were to trade Ells for an SP, he'd have to be elite. As much a guarantee in a #1 SP as we can get. That's how strongly I feel about Ells' abilities.

 

I'd rather take the lumps with $12M to spend. Or wait until the trade deadline to see if Crawford is actually hitting and fielding like a $140M player.

 

As iOrtiz said, Epstein put us in a stranglehold. Crawford was brought here to move Ellsbury. That was the thinking.

[jung]

I know nobody likes what I am about to say but I do think we tend to interpret building a team with a chance to get to the post season into in reality not being satisfied unless we set ourselves up the way everybody thought we were set up this past season. Everybody with a pen workin' for a media outlet had us penciled into the post season and making it to the WS and it is like we are not satisfied unless that is how we are set up.

 

Having a chance to get there is not the same as trying to guarantee that you are going to get there and that also smacks to much of trying to buy your way in....the same accusation we always throw at the Yanks.

 

This might be the year when we just have to live with it. It might make sense to insert the young guys and give them a chance.

 

I can see where a team is hard to market without a respectable closer though because it is so disappointing to go through 8 innings of a 9 inning game only to have some guy come in, give up 2 walks and a home run and send you packing to the Mass Pike. So for that reason alone we have to have a respectable closer. Maybe Pap although he is costly and far better than respectable but either through attrition or on purpose it seems to me that we are going to end up putting much responsibility into the hands of some pretty young guys for 2012 like it or not.

 

if we sign Pap we probably will only have $10M left to do anything else and that will have to be some kind of pitching. If we don't sign Pap then you need a respectable closer and then maybe you have $15M to play with.....maybe! Even if they wanted to bust the 2012 Tax threshold there is not much of what they need available this year anyway.

 

Keep Ells and let him get to the end of his contract....try to have a better mix of young guys and your existing star players for 2012, market the team that way, play hard and I would sort of be disappointed in us if we were all down in the mouth because that is what we had to watch in 2012.

 

However if I am willing to give them 2012 to sort of recover they better damn well play hard and they better take what benefit they get for having avoided the tax in 2012 and for having gotten some young guys more experience ala' trial by fire and they better be willing to take advantage of the fact that there is so much more pitching available in the next FA season as opposed to this one.

 

What is past is past and what is done is done. I can tolerate an ownership desire to be fiscally responsible as long as they give me a team that is fun to watch in 2012 and as long as they plan on taking full advantage of the position they will be in for 2013. Just don't embarrass me again like you did in 2011.

[a700hitter]

I see.

 

BTW what is your opinion about this... Supposing that JH won't overpass the luxury tax cap.

 

Would you trade Ells? or how should we cover the #4 SP?

I would not trade an everyday star for a pitcher, almost never ever. I might make an exception for Verlander.

 

I think we could fit Jackson under the cap. Otherwise, I blow throw the cap.

[iortiz]

I would not trade an everyday star for a pitcher, almost never ever. I might make an exception for Verlander.

 

I think we could fit Jackson under the cap. Otherwise, I blow throw the cap.

 

Edwin Jackson?, sounds good to me.

 

What about him and Beltran and resigning Pap and letting walk Ortiz, and look for a couple of extra BP arms and pitching depth. That probably could work it out but I'm not sure how much would Pap demand...

 

On the other hand if the name is Verlander, even better.

[win red sox]

So in retrospect:

 

Trading Ellsbury for:

 

Gavin Floyd and Carlos Quentin

 

Or

 

Tommy Hanson and an MLB-ready bullpen ready arm are both attractive options.

 

Rather see Ellsbury and Reddick for:

 

John Danks,Chris Sale and Carlos Quentin.

[Palodios]

Rather see Ellsbury and Reddick for:

 

John Danks,Chris Sale and Carlos Quentin.

 

What is with the obsession for Quentin? I would recommend everyone look at his stats... he is an absolutely terrible defensive OF, and really isn't that great a hitter. Reddick's outstanding defense makes him just as valuable-- if he had played the same number of games as Quentin, their WAR would be about the same in 2011. Plus, Quentin will cost 7 million in 2012, and be on his way to free agency the year after.

[Palodios]

I can see where a team is hard to market without a respectable closer though because it is so disappointing to go through 8 innings of a 9 inning game only to have some guy come in' date=' give up 2 walks and a home run and send you packing to the Mass Pike. So for that reason alone we have to have a respectable closer. Maybe Pap although he is costly and far better than respectable but either through attrition or on purpose it seems to me that we are going to end up putting much responsibility into the hands of some pretty young guys for 2012 like it or not.[/quote']

 

So basically you think that a team without an elite closer has no chance of making the playoffs? I'd rather have an elite bullpen with a mediocre closer than a mediocre bullpen with an elite closer. Foulke blew 7 saves in 2004. Cry me a river.

[Laser Show]

What is with the obsession for Quentin? I would recommend everyone look at his stats... he is an absolutely terrible defensive OF' date=' and really isn't that great a hitter. Reddick's outstanding defense makes him just as valuable-- if he had played the same number of games as Quentin, their WAR would be about the same in 2011. Plus, Quentin will cost 7 million in 2012, and be on his way to free agency the year after.[/quote']

 

Part of it is he is a RH hitter with good pop who might actually be able to hit lefties now.

[Palodios]

Part of it is he is a RH hitter with good pop who might actually be able to hit lefties now.

 

Wait wait wait... so he's a right handed hitter that hits righties better than lefties? And everyone is still pushing for him? If we want a guy who can't defensively play RF at fenway, and hits righties better than lefties, why not just re-sign Ortiz then?

[a700hitter]

Edwin Jackson?, sounds good to me.

 

What about him and Beltran and resigning Pap and letting walk Ortiz, and look for a couple of extra BP arms and pitching depth. That probably could work it out but I'm not sure how much would Pap demand...

 

On the other hand if the name is Verlander, even better.

I think that is a pretty good plan, but I would also try converting Bard to a starter. I like a rotation of Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Jackson and Bard. I'd slide Aceves into the 8th inning slot.

[Kimmi]

I think that is a pretty good plan' date=' but I would also try converting Bard to a starter. I like a rotation of Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Jackson and Bard. I'd slide Aceves into the 8th inning slot.[/quote']

 

One problem with converting Bard into a starter is that he would likely be limited to a little over 100 IP. You would still need another solid starter to get you the rest of the way through the season.

[jung]

I said a respectable closer. Pap is far better than respectable but costly. There are few closers making Pap money and many do a "respectable" job.

[example1]

Edwin Jackson will be expensive, is inconsistent, and his WHIP is too high.

 

As much as people will hate it, the Sox should go with the cheapest options or explore trades for a pitcher, and have the roster and financial flexibility to get one of the good pitchers available after 2012. We will be happier with Matt Cain than Edwin Jackson and should not compromise a short term fix for the long term solution. Don't sign Jackson if it means they can't sign anyone next year. Darvish would be another option for this year.

[seabeachfred]

I know nobody likes what I am about to say but I do think we tend to interpret building a team with a chance to get to the post season into in reality not being satisfied unless we set ourselves up the way everybody thought we were set up this past season. Everybody with a pen workin' for a media outlet had us penciled into the post season and making it to the WS and it is like we are not satisfied unless that is how we are set up.

 

Having a chance to get there is not the same as trying to guarantee that you are going to get there and that also smacks to much of trying to buy your way in....the same accusation we always throw at the Yanks.

 

This might be the year when we just have to live with it. It might make sense to insert the young guys and give them a chance.

 

I can see where a team is hard to market without a respectable closer though because it is so disappointing to go through 8 innings of a 9 inning game only to have some guy come in, give up 2 walks and a home run and send you packing to the Mass Pike. So for that reason alone we have to have a respectable closer. Maybe Pap although he is costly and far better than respectable but either through attrition or on purpose it seems to me that we are going to end up putting much responsibility into the hands of some pretty young guys for 2012 like it or not.

 

if we sign Pap we probably will only have $10M left to do anything else and that will have to be some kind of pitching. If we don't sign Pap then you need a respectable closer and then maybe you have $15M to play with.....maybe! Even if they wanted to bust the 2012 Tax threshold there is not much of what they need available this year anyway.

 

Keep Ells and let him get to the end of his contract....try to have a better mix of young guys and your existing star players for 2012, market the team that way, play hard and I would sort of be disappointed in us if we were all down in the mouth because that is what we had to watch in 2012.

 

However if I am willing to give them 2012 to sort of recover they better damn well play hard and they better take what benefit they get for having avoided the tax in 2012 and for having gotten some young guys more experience ala' trial by fire and they better be willing to take advantage of the fact that there is so much more pitching available in the next FA season as opposed to this one.

 

What is past is past and what is done is done. I can tolerate an ownership desire to be fiscally responsible as long as they give me a team that is fun to watch in 2012 and as long as they plan on taking full advantage of the position they will be in for 2013. Just don't embarrass me again like you did in 2011.

 

Whether anyone likes what you had to say in your post or not, that is beside the point. You have a point of view and are entitled to it. Kuddos to you. I really think that if we hadn't collapsed in September we would be able to look at next season with a little more optimism. Could it be that I and others have lost confidence in some of our players? Could be.

 

First of all we need good health in 2012, something we didn't have a whole lot of in 2009, and absolutely zilch in that regard the last two seasons. The team's medical staff has to do a better job of diagnosing injuries than they have in the past and the conditioning people must get the backing from on top to demand compliance with training regimens. We also need our top three pitchers to stay on the mound and give us big seasons along with a great comeback from Crawford.

 

Drawing on a good night's sleep I see things a little differently this morning. Yes, we need a RH hitting outfielder (Cuddyer is my choice because he hits lefties well and is very versatile), two good relievers who can get people out on a consistent basis, and a solid No. 3 or 4 starter. As for our free agents I still lean towards resigning Papelbon and letting Ortiz walk if John Henry is not going to expend extra funds this year for the FA market. First and foremost, though, we need some lady luck to keep our players on the field more often next year.

[iortiz]

I think that is a pretty good plan' date=' but I would also try converting Bard to a starter. I like a rotation of Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Jackson and Bard. I'd slide Aceves into the 8th inning slot.[/quote']

 

Sounds good as well.

 

I'd give Jackson a contract for one year and an option for 2013.

 

Here the scenarios, if Jackson and/or Bard s*** the bed, go for a big fish in 2013. If Bard is who s*** the bed send him back to BP but If this is Jackson, let him walk.

[User Name]

The Sox have officially contacted the agent for Grady Sizemore.

 

Why?

[iortiz]

Whether anyone likes what you had to say in your post or not, that is beside the point. You have a point of view and are entitled to it. Kuddos to you. I really think that if we hadn't collapsed in September we would be able to look at next season with a little more optimism. Could it be that I and others have lost confidence in some of our players? Could be.

 

First of all we need good health in 2012, something we didn't have a whole lot of in 2009, and absolutely zilch in that regard the last two seasons. The team's medical staff has to do a better job of diagnosing injuries than they have in the past and the conditioning people must get the backing from on top to demand compliance with training regimens. We also need our top three pitchers to stay on the mound and give us big seasons along with a great comeback from Crawford.

 

Drawing on a good night's sleep I see things a little differently this morning. Yes, we need a RH hitting outfielder (Cuddyer is my choice because he hits lefties well and is very versatile), two good relievers who can get people out on a consistent basis, and a solid No. 3 or 4 starter. As for our free agents I still lean towards resigning Papelbon and letting Ortiz walk if John Henry is not going to expend extra funds this year for the FA market. First and foremost, though, we need some lady luck to keep our players on the field more often next year.

 

+1

[Laser Show]

Sounds good as well.

 

I'd give Jackson a contract for one year and an option for 2013.

 

Here the scenarios, if Jackson and/or Bard s*** the bed, go for a big fish in 2013. If Bard is who s*** the bed send him to the BP but If this is Jackson, let him walk.

 

He's 28, hasn't missed time in 5 years, is a Boras client, and has been pretty productive. He just came off a 2/12 contract and I'd be willing to bet the farm that he wants stability and money. I don't think your idea of a 1+option will come close to getting it done.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Fenway RF is not somewhere I'd like to see Sizemore. He's injury prone too. Stay away please.

[Laser Show]

The Sox have officially contacted the agent for Grady Sizemore.

 

Why?

 

They obviously don't read these boards. It's a bad, bad, bad, bad, bad idea. LH loaded lineup in a RH hitters park, replacing one injury prone LHH OF with another.

[a700hitter]

Edwin Jackson will be expensive, is inconsistent, and his WHIP is too high.

 

As much as people will hate it, the Sox should go with the cheapest options or explore trades for a pitcher, and have the roster and financial flexibility to get one of the good pitchers available after 2012. We will be happier with Matt Cain than Edwin Jackson and should not compromise a short term fix for the long term solution. Don't sign Jackson if it means they can't sign anyone next year. Darvish would be another option for this year.

Cain will cost big bucks and Ellsbury. That's not any bargain. I don't think Ben should give up Ellsbury for any pitcher whose name is not Verlander and Verlander is not for sale. Jackson is not close to the caliber of Cain, but he would be a #4 or 5. He is very consistent in that he takes the ball every start every season. We haven't had anyone in the 5 hole like that since Arroyo. It is a bullpen and staff saver to have a #5 that takes 33-35 turns. His performance is not that inconsistent. I think he has been improving and he is still only 28 yrs old.

[iortiz]

He's 28' date=' hasn't missed time in 5 years, is a Boras client, and has been pretty productive. He just came off a 2/12 contract and I'd be willing to bet the farm that he wants stability and money. I don't think your idea of a 1+option will come close to getting it done.[/quote']

 

Well, the wound still so fresh on me (D-K, Lackey) in order to give long term contracts again with a lot of money involved.

 

Sure, that scenario hardly could work, but what about a juicy option?

[Laser Show]

Cain will cost big bucks and Ellsbury. That's not any bargain. I don't think Ben should give up Ellsbury for any pitcher whose name is not Verlander and Verlander is not for sale. Jackson is not close to the caliber of Cain' date=' but he would be a #4 or 5. He is very consistent in that he takes the ball every start every season. We haven't had anyone in the 5 hole like that since Arroyo. It is a bullpen and staff saver to have a #5 that takes 33-35 turns. His performance is not that inconsistent. I think he has been improving and he is still only 28 yrs old.[/quote']

 

There's a pretty long list of pitchers I'd give up 2 more years of Ellsbury for.

 

Verlander

Felix

Shields

Haren

Kershaw

Weaver

Halladay

Lee

Lincecum

Cain

 

And there's probably more.

[iortiz]

The Sox have officially contacted the agent for Grady Sizemore.

 

Why?

 

Really?

 

I prefer a Kalish/Redick share load than him. He is not that healthy, is he?

[a700hitter]

There's a pretty long list of pitchers I'd give up 2 more years of Ellsbury for.

 

Verlander

Felix

Shields

Haren

Kershaw

Weaver

Halladay

Lee

Lincecum

Cain

 

And there's probably more.

I firmly believe that you don't trade an everyday star for a pitcher. If I did it, it would have to be for the best most dominant young arm out there, i.e Verlander, and i would not be thrilled to do it.

 

BTW, I am not sure why you say "2 more years of Ellsbury." I realize that he will be a FA, but it's not like the guys on your list have perpetually renewing contracts. We will not have them indefinitely.

[jung]

There's a pretty long list of pitchers I'd give up 2 more years of Ellsbury for.

 

Verlander

Felix

Shields

Haren

Kershaw

Weaver

Halladay

Lee

Lincecum

Cain

 

And there's probably more.

 

Give it a couple of hours Laser and you will be reading post after post about why this guy is untouchable and why that guy won't be traded for Ells.

 

Keep Ells at this point. If you keep him and let Ortiz walk this supposedly terrific, offensive juggernaut of a lineup will only be missing two pieces, Drew and Ortiz, one of which played no more than 80 games and change in 2011 and the other getting older and tying the managers hands, making it impossible to rotate guys into the DH spot and give people some rest.

 

Sign Pap if you want to, don't if you don't want to....you need a respectable closer but this constant insistence that we have to have close to the best of everything just sounds more and more like Yankee envy to me. Trying to play the print money game with a team that turns double the Sox revenue every year just flies in the face of reality. Worse, Pap is not Mariano. There is only one Mariano. If you don't sign him you have to bring somebody in here that can do a respectable job of closing at some $ number maybe not more than $5M per or trust Bard with the job and replace Bard's middle relief role.

 

If you don't sign Pap you have $24M for new players. Take the $24M and first move Bard into the closer spot for 2012. If you look at the bulk of closers in MLB, there are a very select few that make big money, with the bulk making a couple $M or less per year because they are guys that are at the front ends of their careers playing for teams that gave them the job much as we have discussed Bard here. Paying some middling amount for a closer does not likely get you somebody better than Bard will likely be. You just get somebody you are paying more money. But you could likely get a good middle reliever for $4M or so. If you do that you can at least afford a Jackson or somebody like that for maybe $9M for the rotation. That leaves $12M of the $24M left. With that you get a RH bat for RF but you can't spend much here either. Spend about $7 for someone that you can platoon with Kalish in RF and spend the rest on more relief depth whether it is one more or two and that is it for 2012. We just have to stop looking at these guys at the top of the rotation and these big bats that want big money with any expectation that we can even sign one of those kinds of players without wrecking any chance of bringing in the number of players you need to avoid just crashing and burning from attrition in 2012.

 

Your lineup is what you had in 2011 without Ortiz and with Kalish platooning in RF with somebody.

 

Your starters are Lester, Beckett, Buckholtz. Jackson and Aceves. Your closer is Bard and your are bringing in at least two new middle relievers. I think that is about the most efficient way for this team to spend $24M and field a reasonably good team for 2012. Frankly i want to see guys like Kalish. I want to see young guys even though they might not be fully ready. I am tired of these old warhorse FA with their bum knees and their broken shoulders and their double digit $M expectations.

 

Could the team I just described possibly go no farther than the Sox got last year???....Absolutely. Can it compete....only if the starting pitchers recover. The Sox should then prep up for spending serious money in 2013, the last year they will have Ells and take there shot at having a team that would deserve higher expectations in 2013, not 2012.

[Laser Show]

Give it a couple of hours Laser and you will be reading post after post about why this guy is untouchable and why that guy won't be traded for Ells.

 

......

 

Your starters are Lester, Beckett, Buckholtz. Jackson and Aceves. Your closer is Bard and your are bringing in at least two new middle relievers. I think that is about the most efficient way for this team to spend $24M and field a reasonably good team for 2012. Frankly i want to see guys like Kalish. I want to see young guys even though they might not be fully ready. I am tired of these old warhorse FA with their bum knees and their broken shoulders and their double digit $M expectations.

 

 

I know just about every one of those pitchers isn't moving, I was just making a point.

 

We will not sign Jackson. Boras will be looking for something in the neighborhood of at least 5/50. Jackson doesn't miss starts and puts up quality seasons.

[Laser Show]

We better get our heads out of our asses before Philly swoops in and signs Papelbon from us.

[jung]

Well, $10M per is only $1M per more than I have allocated for Jackson. Maybe we can get him...maybe not. The point is we need to fill the #4 spot in the rotation this year, not the #1 spot and that is the kind of SP we should look for and the kind of money we should spend. No sense in even thinking about Wilson or even Buerhle even if he was willing to leave Chicago. A #4 that is steady and reliable probably is $8 to $10M, maybe less but not much less.

[FredLynn]

Really?

 

I prefer a Kalish/Redick share load than him. He is not that healthy, is he?

 

Sizemore has been a flop lately. He hit .224 with an OPS of .706 last year and was injured the year before that. We do not need another LHH OF. It would be a mistake to get him on board. Get Cuddyer instead.