2011 Trade Deadline Thread

[redsoxbeatz]

So, who are the pitchers the Red Sox could go after realistically? Bullpen guys or SP. Garza sounds like it won't happen. I highly doubt we will get Ubaldo. Edwin Jackson? I don't even know who is really available.

[AtWork]

I think it makes sense to do so; the purpose of regressing to the mean is to identify what kind of player we can expect Reddick to be in the future' date=' given his more sustainable numbers now (BB% and K%). For his less sustainable numbers (HR, BABIP) it's difficult to project based upon numbers, so you'd have to rely more on scouting to determine what kind of player you can expect him to be. So for those numbers, it's useful to regress to use a league-wide average to get a sense of what he could be. It's not perfect, and it's useful to draw on other areas to determine what kind of a player you think Reddick will be, but it gives a decent ballpark estimate (much better than Bowden's OPSBIs).[/quote']

 

The issue is that you can't adjust one percentage without also adjusting another percentage. If his LD rate goes down, that means his FB rate will most likely go up which would most likely result in more home runs. I don't have access to his sabermetrics right now though so I can't really speak to that because I don't know what his HR/FB is to start with. My guess, given his raw skills and his history in the minors is that he'll be something like a .280/.350/.550 hitter in the majors but that's not really based on what his sabermetric stats are right now. And even if it was, it's such a small sample size anyways that it's probably not all that telling.

[iortiz]

Reddick' date=' Kalish, Ranaudo? What? There is no way we're talking about Beltran anymore. This must be about Reyes.[/quote']

 

Totally Agree.

[Will617]

The issue is that you can't adjust one percentage without also adjusting another percentage. If his LD rate goes down' date=' that means his FB rate will most likely go up which would most likely result in more home runs. I don't have access to his sabermetrics right now though so I can't really speak to that because I don't know what his HR/FB is to start with. My guess, given his raw skills and his history in the minors is that he'll be something like a .280/.350/.550 hitter in the majors but that's not really based on what his sabermetric stats are right now. And even if it was, it's such a small sample size anyways that it's probably not all that telling.[/quote']

 

There's not really much need to be that precise with an estimate. But his HR/FB% is like 13%. And it's difficult to say that his LD rate going down would cause an increase in his FB rate; he's already hitting FB at a 44% clip, while he's only hitting grounders at a 27% clip.

Basically, short answer is: we don't know, and we don't really need to know that much; he's probably somewhere around a .275-.325 hitter if you project his current performance.

[iortiz]

Your guide to the trade deadline

 

By Peter Abraham, Globe Staff

 

The non-waiver trade deadline is July 31, only 10 days away. Here's a brief guide to all the action:

 

The deadline is not really the deadline: Teams can still make trades after July 31 and often do. It's just that the players have to clear waivers. That complicates matters, but significant deals can still be made.

 

The real deadline is Aug. 31, the date that players must be on the roster to be eligible for the postseason.

 

GMs talk, that is what they do: It's not really news that Theo Epstein called a team to ask about its players. It would be news if he did not. Part of a GM's job is having a pretty good idea what the other 29 teams want to do. So don't get too excited by somebody's breathless report that GM X called Team Y.

 

Love the one you're with: The Red Sox need a right fielder, that's no secret. But even with right field giving them little production, the Sox still have the best offense in baseball. Would Carlos Beltran really make them that much better? Or would Josh Reddick and Darnell McDonald suffice?

 

Teams send scouts to games. That's what scouts do: That a team has a scout at a major league game and those two teams could match up for a trade is often coincidental. Teams employ dozens of scouts who attend games all season, not just in July. GMs have many ways to evaluate a player, a scout's take is just one piece of the puzzle.

 

Your team's prospects are not as valuable as you think: The prospects of large-market teams often get over-hyped simply because there is more media coverage of their players. That you've heard a lot about a certain player doesn't mean other teams think he's worth obtaining.

 

Think long term: A good GM doesn't look only at his team's need right now. He looks at how a trade would change the organization going forward. The Red Sox used three prime prospects to obtain Adrian Gonzalez in December knowing that would impact their ability to make a trade six months later. Nothing changed because J.D. Drew stopped hitting.

Every great player was once a prospect: It's easy to say "Trade anybody to get this star player! We need him." But Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Daniel Bard, Jon Lester, Jonathan Papelbon and Clay Buchholz were once prospects, too. Pillaging a good farm system can be a quick trip to mediocrity.

 

Pitching, pitching, pitching: The Red Sox have plenty of offense.Their catchers have the fourth-best OPS in the AL and nobody saw that coming. A reliable No. 5 starter and a lefthanded reliever would benefit this team so much more.

 

Consider the other side: Picture yourself as the GM of the other team at a press conference in his city announcing the trade. "Thanks for coming everybody. We sent Hunter Pence to the Red Sox today. We got back their third-best pitching prospect, a right fielder they don't need now that they have Hunter and a few other guys who could be decent. Any questions?" In other words, you have to give up something to get something.

Old news: Many of the "rumors" that are reported were based on talks that happened days ago. A smart GM works on the down low anyway.

 

As to the Red Sox: I think they'll trade for a reliever and and see if a right fielder falls into their laps at a decent price. Josh Reddick looks terrific now. But how will be look in two weeks once the scouting reports catch up to him?

 

As for Extra Bases, we'll keep you advised on the news. Whatever Nick and I hear that seems legit, we'll pass on.

[AtWork]

I totally agree that we need a reliable 5th starter. As for a lefthanded reliever, Morales has actually done quite well and Okajima is killing it down in AAA. I think he's walked 2 batters all year.

[d-money]

I like Morales.The bullpen is the least problem of this team.

[boston22407]

Carlos Beltran - OF - Mets

According to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News, the Giants and Mets are having difficulty matching up on a trade involving Carlos Beltran.

The Giants are willing to assume most or all of the $6 million left on Beltran's contract, but won't give a high-end prospect in exchange for a rental. Of course, this won't help their chances of landing him. The Mets are hoping to land a top prospect, not salary relief, in a deal for Beltran

[lasitter]

Wouldn't be the first big name player to do it' date=' and it's still the players decision.[/quote']The ring and the contract are two separate things, right? And he has the ability to decline some trade destinations. What is stopping him from trying to get big money from any bidder after the series? And wouldn't Boras share in that just as well?

[boston22407]

MLB Network analyst Peter Gammons made his weekly appearance on the Mut & Merloni show Thursday to talk about the trade possibilities for the Red Sox as the July 31 deadline nears. Gammons, however, was first asked about Jacoby Ellsbury and the likelihood that the Sox would be able to lock the center fielder up to a long-term deal before he hits the free-agent market after the 2013 season.

 

"I'm sure they'll push but it won't happen," Gammons said. "Scott Boras doesn't do long-term deals. I would be shocked, I just don't see it happening. I think that they'll try but it's just not Scott's nature. He likes to go to free agency. He sees that he has a star-quality player in Ellsbury. And I think if it gets to the middle of next year and is playing like he is now, there's a chance that the Red Sox would come close to what Scott wants."

 

Carlos Beltran is a name that has been mentioned prominently over the past few weeks as a possible trade target for the Sox. Gammons thinks the emergence of Josh Reddick and the reluctance of the Sox to part with Felix Doubront make this potential deal unlikely to occur.

 

"Beltran isn't out of the realm of possibility, though do you want to get rid of Doubront?," asked Gammons. "It will probably be Doubront, I've heard Chih-Hsieh Chiang's name, I've heard other names that the Mets like. The Mets haven't got back to the Red Sox with names, but I don't know if you dare trade Doubront at this point, just because of the fear of guys getting hurt. ... I think they might go get a right-handed hitting outfielder, like a Reed Johnson. I know they keep dabbling with the Mets. One thing about Theo Epstein is he that always stays in on the high-ceiling guys, just in case. Remember two years ago when they got Victor Martinez they had one deal involving Victor Martinez and Cliff Lee, and another five for one with Roy Halladay and a six for one with Felix Hernandez."

 

Gammons wouldn't rule out a trade with Colorado for Ubaldo Jim?nez, another name that has been linked to many recent trade rumors. Jim?nez -- 6-8 with a 4.00 ERA for the Rockies this season -- is just 27 years old and for $18 million over the next three seasons.

 

"He [Theo Epstein] is going to try," Gammons said. "Now, I know [Colorado GM] Dan O'Dowd has said he can't take a deal similar to the one the Guardians got on Colon or the Rangers got on Teixeira. They took Double-A down to Single-A players and could wait two or three years. He can't do that, so I don't see it."

 

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/this-just-in/21122436/gammons-sox-are-gonna-try-jimenez

[redsoxrules]

I totally agree that we need a reliable 5th starter. As for a lefthanded reliever' date=' Morales has actually done quite well and [b']Okajima is killing it down in AAA. I think he's walked 2 batters all year[/b].

 

Speaking of OKI.... Why the hell is he not with the Red Sox right now ?

 

he's doing real good and he looks like he's back to his old self

[boston22407]

According to FOX Sports' Jon Paul Morosi, the Tigers have been scouting right-hander Jeremy Guthrie.

The Detroit front office has also expressed interest in Rockies ace Ubaldo Jimenez and Dodgers veteran Hiroki Kuroda, but Guthrie represents a decent consolation prize. The 32-year-old right-hander has registered a 4.35 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 84/37 K/BB ratio in 22 total appearances (20 starts) this season for last-place Baltimore

[Dojji]

Teams send scouts to games. That's what scouts do: That a team has a scout at a major league game and those two teams could match up for a trade is often coincidental. Teams employ dozens of scouts who attend games all season, not just in July. GMs have many ways to evaluate a player, a scout's take is just one piece of the puzzle.

[AtWork]

 

Exactly, that's why I was humored when a poster thought the Mets having scouts at one of their own minor league games which happened to be against the Sea Dogs meant that we were seriously involved in Beltran.

[redsoxbeatz]

What does that mean, "in two weeks when the scouting reports catch up to him" ??

 

How was Reddick scouted? I'm guessing as a mediocre guy?

[SoxSport]

I haven't seen anything in Dubront that doesn't make him expendable for Beltran. In fact, the guy has done nothing but go from one injury to the next. The Sox have plenty of other pitching options. I don't believe Dubront would hold up a Beltran deal.

[Dojji]

Doubront has the upside to be a good depth oiption for the next few years. He's a pretty competent pitcher. May sound like damning with faint priase, but I'm reluctant to deal him.

 

The kind of prospect I move for Beltran is a guy like Tim Federowicz or Chih-Hsien Chiang. A guy with possible MLB utility but not a ton of upside. I'd be much more generous for a guy who is going to be here beyond this offseason.

[MNSoxChief102]

I haven't seen anything in Dubront that doesn't make him expendable for Beltran. In fact' date=' the guy has done nothing but go from one injury to the next. The Sox have plenty of other pitching options. I don't believe Dubront would hold up a Beltran deal.[/quote']

 

+1

 

If the Mets want Doubront for Beltran, Theo should make it happen pronto.

[redsoxbeatz]

Doubront has the upside to be a good depth oiption for the next few years. He's a pretty competent pitcher. May sound like damning with faint priase, but I'm reluctant to deal him.

 

The kind of prospect I move for Beltran is a guy like Tim Federowicz or Chih-Hsien Chiang. A guy with possible MLB utility but not a ton of upside. I'd be much more generous for a guy who is going to be here beyond this offseason.

 

Is Doubront still injured? They called up Weiland over him so I would suspect he is.

 

--

 

What does that mean, "in two weeks when the scouting reports catch up to him" ??

How was Reddick scouted? I'm guessing as a mediocre guy?

[boston22407]

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2011/07/21/counting-chips-how-industry-views-sox-prospect

[redsoxbeatz]

MLB Network analyst Peter Gammons made his weekly appearance on the Mut & Merloni show Thursday to talk about the trade possibilities for the Red Sox as the July 31 deadline nears. Gammons, however, was first asked about Jacoby Ellsbury and the likelihood that the Sox would be able to lock the center fielder up to a long-term deal before he hits the free-agent market after the 2013 season.

 

"I'm sure they'll push but it won't happen," Gammons said. "Scott Boras doesn't do long-term deals. I would be shocked, I just don't see it happening. I think that they'll try but it's just not Scott's nature. He likes to go to free agency. He sees that he has a star-quality player in Ellsbury. And I think if it gets to the middle of next year and is playing like he is now, there's a chance that the Red Sox would come close to what Scott wants."

 

Carlos Beltran is a name that has been mentioned prominently over the past few weeks as a possible trade target for the Sox. Gammons thinks the emergence of Josh Reddick and the reluctance of the Sox to part with Felix Doubront make this potential deal unlikely to occur.

 

"Beltran isn't out of the realm of possibility, though do you want to get rid of Doubront?," asked Gammons. "It will probably be Doubront, I've heard Chih-Hsieh Chiang's name, I've heard other names that the Mets like. The Mets haven't got back to the Red Sox with names, but I don't know if you dare trade Doubront at this point, just because of the fear of guys getting hurt. ... I think they might go get a right-handed hitting outfielder, like a Reed Johnson. I know they keep dabbling with the Mets. One thing about Theo Epstein is he that always stays in on the high-ceiling guys, just in case. Remember two years ago when they got Victor Martinez they had one deal involving Victor Martinez and Cliff Lee, and another five for one with Roy Halladay and a six for one with Felix Hernandez."

 

Gammons wouldn't rule out a trade with Colorado for Ubaldo Jim?nez, another name that has been linked to many recent trade rumors. Jim?nez -- 6-8 with a 4.00 ERA for the Rockies this season -- is just 27 years old and for $18 million over the next three seasons.

 

"He [Theo Epstein] is going to try," Gammons said. "Now, I know [Colorado GM] Dan O'Dowd has said he can't take a deal similar to the one the Guardians got on Colon or the Rangers got on Teixeira. They took Double-A down to Single-A players and could wait two or three years. He can't do that, so I don't see it."

 

To hear the interview click on the Mut and Merloni audio on demand page. For more Red Sox news visit weei.com/redsox.

 

It won't happen. But damnit, why do they have to put BS out there like that? We have no prospects to give up and no $$$$.

It'll be some reliever if anything...

[iortiz]

Beltr?n no piensa en su situaci?n 21 de julio, 17:19

 

NUEVA YORK -- ?Ser? el partido del jueves en la tarde el ultimo para Carlos Beltr?n como miembro de los Mets?

Posiblemente.

 

Pero no es que el manager Terry Collins est? pensando en eso.

 

"No tengo razones, fuera de lo que se ha escrito y dicho para pensar que este sera su ultimo partido en casa," dijo Collins. "Voy a colocarlo en la alineaci?n (el viernes) y espero que por alg?n tiempo m?s."

 

Parece probable que Beltr?n ser;a cambiado antes de la fecha l?mite de cambios del 31 de julio. Luego del partido del jueves ante los Cardenales de San Luis en el Citi Field, los Mets iniciar?n una gira de 10 partidos como visitantes.

 

Beltr?n ha dicho que quiere quedarse con los Mets por el resto de su Carrera, pero puede ser agente libre al terminar esta temporada, y los Mets no recibir?an compensaci?n si firma con otro equipo.

 

Sin embargo, Beltr?n tiene tiene una cl?usula completa no cambio en su contrato, as? que tiene poder total para vetar cualquier cambio.

 

"Realmente no estoy pensando en eso," dijo Beltr?n luego de conectar cuadrangular de dos carreras el mi?rcoles en la noche. "Juego cada d?a de la misma manera. Llego al estadio, me prepare y trato de ayudar al equipo en todas las maneras posibles. Si pasa, pues pasa. Pero no ha pasado. No puedo asumir nada ahora mismi. No he escuchado nada de nadie, as? que ahora mismo no me estoy concentrando en eso."

 

Los Medias Rojas de Boston y los Filis de Filadelfia se encuentran entre los equipos que aparentemente est?n interesados en los servicios del estelar jardinero boricua de 34 a?os. Fuentes le han dicho a ESPNNewYork.com que los Mets est?n dispuestos a pagar el resto del contrato de Beltr?n ($6 millones) para poder conseguir un mejor prospecto por ?l.

 

Gordon Edes de ESPNBoston.com report? el mi?rcoles que los Medias Rojas han hablado con los Mets acerca de la posibilidad de adquirir a Beltr?n pero no est?n dispuestos a cumplir con lo que exige Nueva York por el bateador ambidiestro, quien es capaz de jugar las tres posiciones en los jardines.

 

Beltr?n ha tenido un resurgir esta temporada. Lidera el equipo en jonrones (15) y remolcadas (61), mientras batea .293 con .389 de porcentaje de embase y 30 dobles, l?der en las mayores en esa estad?stica.

 

"Pienso que Carlos Beltr?n vino a los entrenamientos primaverales decidido a estar saludable y a mostrarle a todo el mundo el tipo de jugador que siempre ha sido," dijo Collins. "Ese fue su enfoque desde que lleg? a los entrenamientos y ha podido probar que sigue siendo un gran jugador. Pienso que todo se debe a su manera de jugar, su determinaci?n y la manera en que ha afrontado las cosas."

 

Collins alab? la fuerte presencia de Beltr?n en los camerinos.

 

"Al conocerlo, pude apreciar m?s no solo el gran ser humano que es, sino sus cualidades de l?der," dijo Collins. "No habla mucho. Es un tipo callado. Tiene un grans entido del humor, pero cuando habla logra atraer la atenci?n de la gente. No dice mucho, cuando habla no se expresa demasiado, pero la gente lo escucha, y eso rinde tributo a su experiencia y a lo que trae a la mesa."

 

Beltr?n reiter? el mi?rcoles en la noche que su experiencia en el 2004 al ser cambiado de los Reales de Kansas City a los Astros de Houston ha hecho las cosas m?s f?ciles esta vez. Un gran n?mero de escuchas estuvo el mi?rcoles en la noche en el Citi Field dos de los Filis, incluyendo su director de cazatalentos Gordon Lakey.

 

"Ya he pasado por esto antes," dijo Beltr?n. "Lo he escuchado rumores y la gente hablando sobre esto. Se la situaci?n en la que estoy. Pero, al mismo tiempo, ahora mismo no he hablado con nadie. Ahora mismo, solo estoy viniendo aqu? a jugar mi juego. Estoy jugando b?isbol. No estoy pensando en donde voy a estar ma?ana. ... La familia, los amigos, todo el mundo habla de eso. Pero si no escucho nada de (mi agente) Scott (Boras) o la organizaci?n, entonces no est? pasando nada."

 

 

The translation of the most important.

 

Sources have said to ESPNNY that the Mets want prospects and they would even pay those 6MUSD.

 

According with Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com, The RedSox wouldn't accept Mets' pretensions for Carlos (Top Prospects).

 

Beltran just said after the game vs STL that neither Scott nor the Club have told him anything about his trade, and all these cheap talking about his trade are just rumors; he doesn't think about it.

[Dojji]

I don't think it's entirely impossible that Beltran clears waivers given the price tag and injury history. I think we have more time than just to the 31st.

[Will617]

I don't think it's entirely impossible that Beltran clears waivers given the price tag and injury history. I think we have more time than just to the 31st.

 

If they put him on waivers, I'm sure that there's one team that will keep blocking him from going to other teams.

[boston22407]

WOBURN -- Speaking at Jason Varitek's Celebrity Putt Putt fundraiser event at Athletic Evolution, Red Sox principal owner John Henry told WEEI.com that he does not expect his team to undergo significant alterations before the non-waiver trade deadline on July 31.

 

"We like this team so I don't anticipate many changes at all," Henry said. "I think moreso than in years past. Obviously we could use a strong right-handed bat, but this year that's a difficult commodity to get.

 

"We gave up a few prospects in spring training so we would prefer not to do that. It will be driven by what opportunities exist, if any. There have been years where we haven't really done anything, and there have been years we saw an opportunity. It's hard to say."

 

Henry also addressed the notion that the organization's budget was such that it would be difficult to add payroll for the regular season's final 2 1/2 months. The owner suggested that the organization had allocated the majority of its budget on the players making up the Opening Day roster, but that money most likely wouldn't be a hold-up in executing any transactions.

 

"We have a tendency to spend pretty much everything we can in the offseason. And we were successful in doing so. I don't know if it's overly different this year. If something comes up we'll make room," Henry said. "But the big deal isn't so much money as it is prospects. We can have Player X, but this is what it's going to cost (player-wise), and it usually costs something.

 

"I felt going into spring training this was as good a team as we've had, at least on paper and we've been able to execute. After those first 12 games we've been the best team in major league baseball. Since we watch every game, every day we're aware of every little weakness we have and some of the weaknesses we had in the first half may not be weaknesses as much in the second half."

 

Asked what it was like to weather a 2-10 record to begin the season, Henry said, "Torture, for all of us. It wasn't just losing, it was how badly we were playing. But I had no doubt we would turn it around. It was was too good of a team."

 

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/this-just-in/21122641/henry-dont-anticipate-many-changes-all

[example1]

I really tend to think that Henry speaks the truth. People have to realize that there's a fine line between wanting to get guys to get better and getting guys for the sake of getting guys.

 

Could the Sox benefit from adding a RHH RF? Yes. Could they benefit by adding a 5th pitcher? Yes. Is it essential as an owner or as a team, in order to win the World Series? I think most people would say no. I would LOVE to see them add Jimenez or Beltran, but neither is essential. This team added numerous huge pieces in the offseason and they are in first place with one of the best records in baseball.

 

The thing that makes me think the Sox would be more willing than not to make a move is that they are going to have a logjam (as I understand it) in the minor leagues with the number of guys who either need to be on the 40 man or who will be in the rule 5 draft. It is possible that they will lose some good talent either way, so they might as well trade for someone decent. They would probably just rather trade Che Hsuan Lin than Josh Reddick, and that won't match well with the Mets or Rockies.

 

Theo always aims high, but like John Henry I don't see huge moves this year.

[iortiz]

Reading all these news from everywhere last weeks, stinks like any big fish is coming before the trade deadline to Boston; and you know what, I wouldn't care as long as our top 3 SPs keep healthy and perform as they supposed to on October.

[Meh]

GammOHs says the Mets want Xander or Jacobs as well as Felix Doubront for Beltran. Can't be bothered to see if it's already been posted. I think thats about on par though.

[jacksonianmarch]

Sounds about right. One guy from A ball and another big league ready player for a .900OPS OFer

[jacksonianmarch]

BTW, I have a feeling something big is gonna go down with NY. Just like last yr, the Yankees are being linked with everyone, but nobody has any sort of solid info. The needs for NY are essentially another shutdown starter, a lefty reliever and a big time bat to DH. I have a feeling 2 of those needs get filled