2011 Trade Deadline Thread

[Dojji]

*wince*

 

We're ultimately talking about slapping Kalish directly into right field in the wake of a lost year. That has tremendous potential to backfire. I think Reddick is necessary depth for now in light of the fact that JD Drew is moving on at the end of the year.

 

I don't think you can move either of them until one of them is proven.

[a700hitter]

*wince*

 

We're ultimately talking about slapping Kalish directly into right field in the wake of a lost year. That has tremendous potential to backfire. I think Reddick is necessary depth for now in light of the fact that JD Drew is moving on at the end of the year. I don't think you can move either of them until one of them is proven.

They could sign a right handed OFer to help Kalish in a platoon situation until he gets comfortable and consistent. maybe a Jeff Francoeur type.

[SoxFanForsyth]

*wince*

 

We're ultimately talking about slapping Kalish directly into right field in the wake of a lost year. That has tremendous potential to backfire. I think Reddick is necessary depth for now in light of the fact that JD Drew is moving on at the end of the year. I don't think you can move either of them until one of them is proven.

 

Kalish started 2010 in AA ball, and came up and gave the Sox very solid production. I don't think he would be a hole in the line up if he came back and played RF next season. That being said, it would be beneficial for him to develop, so why not trade for and extend Beltran for 2-3 extra years, give Kalish time to develop from his lost season, and then net your prospects by offering Beltran arbitration after his contract with the Sox?

[Dojji]

Only if you don't mind that guy being your right fielder.

 

Remember the embarrassment of riches the Rangers had at catcher with stud prospects Teagarden, Salty and Max Ramirez? 2 years later all 3 of them were gone to greener pastures and they'd had to trade for a starting catcher. What the heck makes us think that we're immune to that?

[Palodios]

A smart move by Theo would be to trade for Beltran' date=' see if you can sign him to a decent contract (3/36 or something), and sign a deal enabling you to offer arbitration at the end of his new contract and net yourself the prospects you lost in the trade.[/quote']

 

3/36 for Beltran? That'll never happen, he's 34 years old and injury prone.

[SoxFanForsyth]

3/36 for Beltran? That'll never happen' date=' he's 34 years old and injury prone.[/quote']

 

Alright, 2/20, 3/26? I'm not saying the numbers are accurate, I actually put little to no thought into the contract, I was just trying to make the point of trade - sign - offer arb - net prospects.

[ORS]

Only if you don't mind that guy being your right fielder.

 

Remember the embarrassment of riches the Rangers had at catcher with stud prospects Teagarden, Salty and Max Ramirez? 2 years later all 3 of them were gone to greener pastures and they'd had to trade for a starting catcher. What the heck makes us think that we're immune to that?

This would be a great point if one of them actually amounted to something in the time the Rangers had them, but since none of them did, it doesn't make the thought of losing our minor league "depth" all that unappealing.

 

Think it through next time.

[a700hitter]

Alright' date=' 2/20, 3/26? I'm not saying the numbers are accurate, I actually put little to no thought into the contract, I was just trying to make the point of trade - sign - offer arb - net prospects.[/quote']2/$24-26

[Palodios]

Alright' date=' 2/20, 3/26? I'm not saying the numbers are accurate, I actually put little to no thought into the contract, I was just trying to make the point of trade - sign - offer arb - net prospects.[/quote']

 

Let me clarify. Someone will pay those numbers. However, it will not be the Red Sox. They don't give long term contracts to older players, and considering his injury history and what happened with Cameron, I'd bet they're less likely to do it with Beltran.

[AtWork]

The thing you had with Ells was the fact that his blazing speed made you at least think he could hack it when his BABIP dropped. And Ells was playing CF well, meaning his defense played more into things. Reddick is a corner OFer now, even though he has the goods to hack it in CF. He plays solid D in RF, but that is less of a "defense first" position than CF was. And Ellsbury had a track record in the minors of being successful. Reddick has mixed success with disappointment and has already been a failure in the show before

 

Oh and in terms of bad journalism, I just read this...

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/cliff_corcoran/07/20/top.prospects/index.html?eref=sihp&sct=hp_t11_a1

 

Kalish cannot be dealt while on the DL. Not sure why he's in the top 10 for prospects likely to be dealt

 

So you don't think it's fair to compare to him Ellsbury but you just tried comparing him to Daniel Nava?

 

As for Reddick's "disappointing" minor league career, is it really all that disappointing that he struggled as a 21 year old in AA or is that to be expected? If you compare their production at the same age, Reddick had a better OPS as a 21 year old in A than Ellsbury did, Reddick had a better OPS as a 22 year old in AA than Ellsbury did and Reddick had a better OPS as a 23 year old in AAA than Ellsbury did. Seems like a fair comparison to me.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Let me clarify. Someone will pay those numbers. However' date=' it will not be the Red Sox. They don't give long term contracts to older players, and considering his injury history and what happened with Cameron, I'd bet they're less likely to do it with Beltran.[/quote']

 

True, but you never know. Beltran could be one of those guys who just wants to come over and win a couple WS. He's never won one. He's made a s*** ton of money, it may be a situation where he wants a ring and he'd rather play for a contender for less money than a fringe team with some money.

[Palodios]

True' date=' but you never know. Beltran could be one of those guys who just wants to come over and win a couple WS. He's never won one. He's made a s*** ton of money, it may be a situation where he wants a ring and he'd rather play for a contender for less money than a fringe team with some money.[/quote']

 

Boras.

[AtWork]

Why is everyone downplaying these numbers? A .250/ 20 HR/.800 OPS guy with good defense on the cheap for 6 years' date=' is a very good thing, and he very easily can be better than that-- I'm just basing that off his minor league numbers.[/quote']

 

I would be happy with an .800 OPS and above average defense. I just don't think his production as a 21 year old on AA or a 22 year old in AAA is all that relevant to how he's going to perform as a 25 year old in the majors next year and beyond.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Boras.

 

Wouldn't be the first big name player to do it, and it's still the players decision.

[Palodios]

Wouldn't be the first big name player to do it' date=' and it's still the players decision.[/quote']

 

I think it is one thing to accept less money, but I just don't see the Red Sox paying a fraction of what he wants. He'll probably be able to get 3/36 because it is such a thin OF market, but Red Sox salary will be limited in 2012, especially if they're going to be looking for a SP to plug into the rotation. Considering that we've been debating pennies on the dollar for Ortiz, a .900 OPS guy with no health concerns to speak of, I think realistically, the Red Sox aren't willing to pay more than 2/18 on Beltran, and even that blocks any of their prospects from hitting the majors. I'd really like to see Beltran, but I have a hard time seeing him as a long term option here.

[Interestedobserver]

I think 2/20 with an option for a third year vesting at 500 PAs would be a good deal. The dude can still hit.

[AtWork]

I'd have concerns about Beltran playing right field in Fenway through age 36. There's a lot of room out there, it's almost like a second CF and Beltran's defense has been subpar the last three years.

[BornToRun]

I think 2/20 with an option for a third year vesting at 500 PAs would be a good deal. The dude can still hit.

 

I still don't like the idea of locking up a guy who's getting deep into his 30's and has a history of injury problems, if Beltran comes to Boston, I can't see it as being anything more than a rental.

[a700hitter]

I still don't like the idea of locking up a guy who's getting deep into his 30's and has a history of injury problems' date=' if Beltran comes to Boston, I can't see it as being anything more than a rental.[/quote']Rent him and then make a decision at the end of the season.

[Interestedobserver]

Rent him and then make a decision at the end of the season.

[Will617]

Not at all. Reddick has a .409 BABIP right now. If that was normalized to a sustainable .300, he would be hitting .244 in the MLB. Even at a high .320 BABIP, his average would only be .256.

 

It's a perfect sell high opportunity.

 

This is not correct. First, if he continues to hit a ton of line drives it's very possible that he'll have a BABIP north of .300. Second, there are players that have similar numbers and higher batting averages (McCutchen has a 16.5% SO rate, and a .306 BABIP, but a .277 average, Fielder has a 14.6% SO rate and a .297 BABIP, but a .292 average, etc). Also, it seems intuitively doubtful that someone can strike out 15% of the time, hit for an above average BABIP, and only have a .256 average.

[Will617]

Alright' date=' 2/20, 3/26? I'm not saying the numbers are accurate, I actually put little to no thought into the contract, I was just trying to make the point of trade - sign - offer arb - net prospects.[/quote']

 

Elias rankings are only based upon the players' past two years. There's no guarantee of arbitration netting the Sox compensation. And you can sign Beltran without trading for him.

Also, if we resigned him and he misses half the season due to injury, I wouldn't be surprised if the same people calling for him to be signed blast Theo for another Cameron. I would trust Beltran as a short-term solution, not a long-term one.

[a700hitter]

Not at all. Reddick has a .409 BABIP right now. If that was normalized to a sustainable .300, he would be hitting .244 in the MLB. Even at a high .320 BABIP, his average would only be .256.

 

It's a perfect sell high opportunity.

I can't argue with this.

[SoxFanForsyth]

This is not correct. First' date=' if he continues to hit a ton of line drives it's very possible that he'll have a BABIP north of .300. Second, there are players that have similar numbers and higher batting averages (McCutchen has a 16.5% SO rate, and a .306 BABIP, but a .277 average, Fielder has a 14.6% SO rate and a .297 BABIP, but a .292 average, etc). Also, it seems intuitively doubtful that someone can strike out 15% of the time, hit for an above average BABIP, and only have a .256 average.[/quote']

 

You're right, I forgot to add the HR back to his hit totals when I normalized the BABIP. WIth a .310 BABIP, he would be a .293 hitter right now.

 

AB: 82

Hits: 31

HR: 4

SO: 15

SF: 3 (Sac Fly)

 

Equation: BABIP = (H - HR)/(AB - SO - HR + SF)

 

For Reddick, 27/66 = .409. Normalized (.310 * 66 = 20 + 4 HR = 24 Hits) and he's 24/82, which is .293

 

My bad - Jacked up the math.

[AtWork]

Not at all. Reddick has a .409 BABIP right now. If that was normalized to a sustainable .300, he would be hitting .244 in the MLB. Even at a high .320 BABIP, his average would only be .256.

 

It's a perfect sell high opportunity.

 

That's not how BABIP works at all. Given Reddick's line drive rate, which was something like 26% last time I checked, his BABIP is exactly where it should be. In fact, it's .001 points lower that what would be expected.

 

There are players who hit for a BABIP well above .300 their entire careers, you can't just regress everyone to a .300 BABIP.

[Dojji]

yeah all bips are not created equal, and Reddick's bips are particularly bippy.

[Will617]

That's not how BABIP works at all. Given Reddick's line drive rate, which was something like 26% last time I checked, his BABIP is exactly where it should be. In fact, it's .001 points lower that what would be expected.

 

There are players who hit for a BABIP well above .300 their entire careers, you can't just regress everyone to a .300 BABIP.

 

Line drive rates tend to regress, especially when they're as high as they are for Reddick.

I'm not sure if Reddick will hit for a high BABIP. He profiles to be more of a fly ball hitter, given his swing and his batted ball numbers. Then again, he could be a freak like Votto and hit tons of line drives, but I think that regression is far more likely to occur.

[AtWork]

Line drive rates tend to regress, especially when they're as high as they are for Reddick.

I'm not sure if Reddick will hit for a high BABIP. He profiles to be more of a fly ball hitter, given his swing and his batted ball numbers. Then again, he could be a freak like Votto and hit tons of line drives, but I think that regression is far more likely to occur.

 

I totally agree that his line drive rate and BABIP will most likely regress. But you can't take away hits for him that were completely legitimate in order to normalize his stats as the other poster was attempting to do. I'm at work right now so I can't look up his sabermetrics to comment on what will most likely happen when his statistics normalize.

[a700hitter]

yeah all bips are not created equal' date=' and Reddick's bips are particularly bippy.[/quote']You bet your bippy they are!

[Will617]

I totally agree that his line drive rate and BABIP will most likely regress. But you can't take away hits for him that were completely legitimate in order to normalize his stats as the other poster was attempting to do. I'm at work right now so I can't look up his sabermetrics to comment on what will most likely happen when his statistics normalize.

 

I think it makes sense to do so; the purpose of regressing to the mean is to identify what kind of player we can expect Reddick to be in the future, given his more sustainable numbers now (BB% and K%). For his less sustainable numbers (HR, BABIP) it's difficult to project based upon numbers, so you'd have to rely more on scouting to determine what kind of player you can expect him to be. So for those numbers, it's useful to regress to use a league-wide average to get a sense of what he could be. It's not perfect, and it's useful to draw on other areas to determine what kind of a player you think Reddick will be, but it gives a decent ballpark estimate (much better than Bowden's OPSBIs).