2011 Trade Deadline Thread

[Palodios]

People will care when Ranaudo--the best pitcher in his respective draft-- turns into an ace for the Mets. I don't see any other elite team in the AL who will stop them from getting to the WS as-is' date=' but Beltran is no guarantee against Halladay, Lee and Hamels.[/quote']

[Dojji]

Ryan Dempster would be good at the bottom of the rotation.

 

Ryan Dempster is not a bottom of the rotation pitcher.

[a700hitter]

Ryan Dempster is not a bottom of the rotation pitcher.

For us he would be.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The guy is doing well' date=' but he'll be 22 in September and he's in A ball. And he's had an injury history. That's not the guy you let stand in the way of another title. With Beltran, the Sox are the odds on favorites. And do you want to face Halladay, Lee, and Hamels, with Beltran in right field for the Sox, or the Phillies?[/quote']

 

I would never trade Ranaudo to prevent Beltran from going to the Phillies. And Ranaudo is ranked as the 2nd best prospect in the Sox organization. He's the only Sox prospect who broke the Baseball America midseason top 50. There's absolutely no way Theo trades him for a rental.

 

And for the record, Beltran doesn't turn a 4.23 RpG team into a 5+ RpG team, so I'm not sure how much of an effect he would have on the Phillies offense. Definitely not enough for a team to gamble that they're going to see them in the WS and toss in your top prospect to keep him away.

[Interestedobserver]

Philly not only has a hole in right, they need somebody who can hit lefties. Carlos can do that, although his splits are a bit off this year. Otherwise they get exposed in the playoffs. They have a window. They don't want to lose it for a prospect.

[Will617]

Philly not only has a hole in right' date=' they need somebody who can hit lefties. Carlos can do that, although his splits are a bit off this year. Otherwise they get exposed in the playoffs. They have a window. They don't want to lose it for a prospect.[/quote']

 

1. No other team will give a prospect as good as Ranaudo to the Mets for 2 months of a corner OF that won't give back any compensation picks.

2. If they do, they're extraordinarily stupid.

3. Just because other teams will also make trade offers for Beltran, doesn't mean that other teams will be obligated to increase their bids. This sort of situation rarely happens.

4. It's pointless to argue that "the Phillies won't get him" is a benefit. After the regular season, the playoffs are essentially a crapshoot. Beltran could have no hits in the postseason, he could hit 1.000 with 20 HRs, the Phillies could lose in the first round, the Red Sox could lose in the first round. The impact of Beltran on the Red Sox's postseason at this point and time (if he were to be traded to another playoff contender) is so small, unless he's traded to an AL East rival that has a chance of unseating the Sox for a playoff spot.

5. Ranaudo for Beltran is idiotic. It's not as bad as Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano, but it's in the same vein - trading a top prospect to help your playoff chances (not that Zambrano helped the Mets chances back then, they thought he would and he panned out terribly).

6. For me, even Reddick for Beltran is too high of a price, even if the Mets eat the entire salary. Reddick's made enough improvement that I see him as better than Kalish going forward (though not by a ton). Even if he only ends up OPSing .750 every season (and I think he'll outperform that), that's still a lot more value given his cost-controlled nature than 2 months of Beltran.

[Will617]

Sure, there's a chance that Ranaudo turns out to be a bust. There's also a chance that Beltran accidentally slips in the outfield tomorrow and breaks the entire left side of his body. The point is, because you don't know which of your prospects will pan out, it makes a lot more sense to hold onto as many of them as you can. If the Sox hadn't, chances are players like Pedroia or Youkilis might be playing for other teams.

[boston22407]

According to Buster Olney of ESPN.com, the Mets are now "100 percent certain" that they will not trade Jose Reyes before the deadline.

That settles that. It wasn't too long ago that many assumed that a trade was a foregone conclusion, but Olney writes that Reyes has "changed their minds." The Mets are a longshot to contend for a playoff spot this season, but parting with Reyes would almost certainly cause an uproar in the fanbase which would be difficult for the new front office to recover from.

[boston22407]

According to Alex Speier of WEEI.com, Carlos Beltran has not officially waived his no-trade clause for the Red Sox.

Beltran can't technically waive his no-trade clause because no deal has been completed. It's likely that he has let the Mets know that he would accept a deal to Boston, which shouldn't come as much of a surprise given his comments during the All-Star break.

[Interestedobserver]

You’re neglecting the Mets pay his salary part of the equation. Money matters in these things. Money can be used to sign more overslots and avoid the luxury tax. Money lures other teams into the bidding. Yes, the playoffs are a crapshoot, but the odds are not the same for every team.

Kazmir was a top ten prospect while Zambrano was already injured at the time of the trade. Tampa never disclosed that fact and the Mets should have filed a grievance. I think the reason they didn’t so is it would have made their FO look stupid for not requesting a medical exam. Even so, that trade was boneheaded for a couple of reasons. Zambrano wasn’t that good, and neither were the Mets even if it had worked out.

[Palodios]

That's the beauty of Beltran's no-trade clause. He can limit himself to Philly, San Fran, or Boston(three teams that do actually have a big need for him) and put himself in good position to be deep in the playoffs.

[Will617]

You’re neglecting the Mets pay his salary part of the equation. Money matters in these things. Money can be used to sign more overslots and avoid the luxury tax. Money lures other teams into the bidding. Yes' date=' the playoffs are a crapshoot, but the odds are not the same for every team.[/quote']

 

If the Mets can pay part of his salary (which I think they can, others might disagree), that still doesn't get them improved prospects. I think he's owed something like $7 million for the rest of the season; even if they pay it all, it will give them slightly improved prospects. But money isn't going to swing the deal that much further. The Cardinals essentially got a prospect that hasn't done much in the minors (and was never projected to do much) for a season and slightly more of Ryan Ludwick, who wasn't a terrible player and ended up costing about as much as Beltran will this season. Beltran is a better player than Ludwick, but the fact that his value gets lowered in so many other ways (high salary, less team control, no compensation picks while Ludwick might end up netting some) that I couldn't see him getting a prospect like Reddick in return.

[AtWork]

As for the Mets' date=' I find it unlikely that they will be giving away Beltran for cash or trading Reyes at all. The best way for Wilpon to make the $200 million back is to keep fans in the stands. He can't just sell the team or the fans will stop showing up and his revenue will suffer. I bet he'll trade Beltran and some cash for a blue chip prospect and attempt to sign Reyes to an extension.[/quote']

 

A source tells Adam Rubin of ESPN New York that the Mets are willing to cover Carlos Beltran's remaining salary in a potential trade.

The motivation is simple. The Mets are hoping that by covering the nearly $6 million left on Beltran's contract, they will be able to acquire a top prospect or two in return. We already know that multiple teams are interested, but this reported stance could expand the field to smaller market teams such as the Pirates and Guardians.

 

According to Buster Olney of ESPN.com, the Mets are now "100 percent certain" that they will not trade Jose Reyes before the deadline.

That settles that. It wasn't too long ago that many assumed that a trade was a foregone conclusion, but Olney writes that Reyes has "changed their minds." The Mets are a longshot to contend for a playoff spot this season, but parting with Reyes would almost certainly cause an uproar in the fanbase which would be difficult for the new front office to recover from.

[Dojji]

Let's put right field on the shelf. Reddick is the guy there at the moment and deserves a chance to fail.

 

So let's talk shortstop. Scutaro is not adequate and Navarro is too green. Reyes is probably not happening. Good defense at shortstop will cut runs off our pitching. We need to improve there defensively. What's your answer?

[BornToRun]

No one seems to be out there, Vizquel, whom you mentioned, is good but he's deep into his 40's.

[Dojji]

Could we get something done with the Angels for Maicer Izturis?

[BornToRun]

Could we get something done with the Angels for Maicer Izturis?

 

You think they'd deal with us?

[AtWork]

I don't think Scutaro is an issue. According to UZR, his defense is slightly above average and believe it or not his .714 OPS is also above average (.687) for a shortstop this year. We don't need an All-Star at every position.

[Dojji]

We do need someone who can make the throw from the hole. Also Scutaro is really tailing off quite a bit recently. Season numbers won't reflect that.

[AtWork]

We do need someone who can make the throw from the hole. Also Scutaro is really tailing off quite a bit recently. Season numbers won't reflect that.

 

His .737 OPS this month is even better than his OPS on the season.

[Interestedobserver]

If the Mets can pay part of his salary (which I think they can' date=' others might disagree), that still doesn't get them improved prospects. I think he's owed something like $7 million for the rest of the season; even if they pay it all, it will give them slightly improved prospects. But money isn't going to swing the deal that much further. The Cardinals essentially got a prospect that hasn't done much in the minors (and was never projected to do much) for a season and slightly more of Ryan Ludwick, who wasn't a terrible player and ended up costing about as much as Beltran will this season. Beltran is a better player than Ludwick, but the fact that his value gets lowered in so many other ways (high salary, less team control, no compensation picks while Ludwick might end up netting some) that I couldn't see him getting a prospect like Reddick in return.[/quote']

 

1.) It's $6 million

2.) Beltran is the premier player at a position all the contenders have holes at. Ludwick has a good shot at not being anything other than organizational filler and I doubt he gets offered arby.

3.) Why does it not matter that the Mets kick in $6 million in cash to pay Beltran's salary and yet Beltran's value is lower than Ludwick because Beltran has a higher salary?

4.) The year he was traded, Ludwick had a 1.9 WAR and a 733 ops. How is that anywhere near equivalent to Beltran who has a 912 ops and is on pace for a 6.5 WAR season?

[Palodios]

I have a hard time seeing the Angels being sellers. Five games back isn't that big a deal when your 1-2 are Weaver-Haren.

[Dojji]

His .737 OPS this month is even better than his OPS on the season.

 

Defensively I mean. You know what I'm talking about. He's been far more noticeable defensively than a good shortstop should be.

 

How about a buy low flier on Ian Desmond? The Nationals have Danny Espinosa to replace him. Downside is good defensive ability and speed off the bench, and he could get his consistency back as a hitter as well.

[lasitter]

What is Miller's trade status? He has picked up more wins than some might have guessed, and it occurred to me that he might be appreciated even more by some team other than the Sox.

 

Healthy, I still think our rotation looks good without him, but don't know anything about his contract, arbitration, whatever. I'd love some multi-team trade where we could put him, $$$, or prospects in the mix and get Garza, but it's been noted that the Cubs aren't going to let him go.

 

Reddick: What you do with him depends on whether you think he's a flash in the pan or not. Some would say trade him when he's red hot so you can get the most for him.

 

I personally suspect that he has the skillset needed to be a productive, versatile player for the Sox organization for a long time.

[SoxSport]

They are saying the Phillies are one of the frontrunners for Beltran, but I don't know if the Mets want to deal Beltran to their division rivals. More likely, they want to deal him elsewhere--like to Boston.

But the Red Sox are sitting pretty right now, and don't want to give up any major prospects for him.

Too bad Reddick is looking so good, in a way. Maybe looking TOO good.

 

Theo is in a predicament--does he really need anybody? I say YES. That lineup imbalance will haunt them in the postseason--especially against the Phillies. They need another RHd bat in that lineup against lefties. Beltran fits. But they don't want to give up anything for what could be a short term fix.

Longer term, it forces them into a decision about Ortiz--since Beltran would make a nice switch-hitting DH who could come cheaper than Papi. The downside is Beltran's knees could go at any time.

[Dojji]

What is Miller's trade status?

 

Minimal. Remember, we got him for literally nothing. Other teams see the walks as well. He's too big a risk to trade for until he proves over a long period of time that his command is improved.

[a700hitter]

They are saying the Phillies are one of the frontrunners for Beltran, but i don't know if the mets want to deal Beltran to their division rivals. More likely, they want to deal him elsewhere--like to Boston.

But the Red Sox are sitting pretty right now, and don't want to give up any major prospects for him.

Too bad Reddick is looking so good, in a way. Maybe looking TOO good.

 

Theo is in a predicament--does he really need anybody? I say YES. That lineup imbalance will haunt them in the postseason--especially against the Phillies. They need another RHd bat in that lineup against lefties. Beltran fits. But they don't want to give up anything for what could be a short term fix.

Longer term, it forces them into a decision about Ortiz--since Beltran would make a nice switch-hitting DH who could come cheaper than Papi. The downside is Beltran's knees could go at any time.

He probably doesn't need anyone to get to the playoffs, but they will need another big bat if they get to the World Series. The interleague play proved that playing with Ortiz on the bench is like playing with one arm tied behind your back.

[SoxSport]

Sure' date=' there's a chance that Ranaudo turns out to be a bust. There's also a chance that Beltran accidentally slips in the outfield tomorrow and breaks the entire left side of his body. The point is, because you don't know which of your prospects will pan out, it makes a lot more sense to hold onto as many of them as you can. If the Sox hadn't, chances are players like Pedroia or Youkilis might be playing for other teams.[/quote']

 

Beltran's knees could go at any time.

[AtWork]

Defensively I mean. You know what I'm talking about. He's been far more noticeable defensively than a good shortstop should be.

 

How about a buy low flier on Ian Desmond? The Nationals have Danny Espinosa to replace him. Downside is good defensive ability and speed off the bench, and he could get his consistency back as a hitter as well.

 

Scutaro's been a good defensive shortstop most of the year. He's been dealing with a minor finger issue the last week or so that's affected some of his throws but it isn't reported to be anything serious.

[Interestedobserver]

Beltran's knees and contract are why he didn't get traded in the spring. That really doesn't apply right now. And from what I know about Sandy, he would sell his mother to the glue factory, to buy an extra prospect. He wouldn't bat an eye dealing with the Phillies or Braves.