Official 2009-2010 Hot Stove season thread

[Dipre]

Probably as crazy as gving a 37 year old pitcher a 4 year $52M contract or so to come and carry us into the playoffs.

 

Halladay isn't a run of the mill 32 year old pitcher. He's got the right skillset and body type to be effective well into his declining years.

 

This argument holds zero water.

 

You're talking about paying a 37 year old pitcher 20 million. That's what the Dodgers thought about Kevin Brown and look how that turned out.

 

What happened to that 37-year-old pitcher?

 

What happened after 2004?

[Dojji]

This argument holds zero water.

 

You're talking about paying a 37 year old pitcher 20 million. That's what the Dodgers thought about Kevin Brown and look how that turned out.

 

... you mean, well? Brown turned in an All star caliber year at age 38 and was New York's problem the next year.

 

What happened to that 37-year-old pitcher?

 

http://www.svenllama.com/blog/blogimages/bloodysock.jpghttp://www.redsox.davecash.net/images/world_series_2004_trophy.jpg

 

What happened after 2004?

 

http://multimedia.heraldinteractive.com/images/58bf1b60f2_ltpSchillingHayOff062308.jpg

http://www.franklin.ma.us/auto/upload/schools/horace/307-world_series_trophy.jpg

[Dipre]

93.1 IP the next year.

 

I'm glad you're not part of the Sox FO.

[Wells]

Ya know... the more I read about this trade/that trade and the skimpy FA pool this off season I wouldn't be terribly unhappy if the Sox FO made moves to better prepare themselves for 2011 and not make a mass amount of huge moves this offseason..

 

I mean we're throwing around the following names:

 

Bay

Holliday

Halladay

Adrian Gonzalez

Damon

Jack f***ing Wilson

Hawpe (seriously?)

Hanley Ramirez

 

I'm sure there are more names out there that have been mentioned (with more to come) but there is no reason to trade away Clay Buchholz for anybody.. I really do think he "figured it out" in the 2nd half of '09 and any team with a chip is going to push hard to steal him away from us..

 

Beckett

Lester

Buchholz

Dice-K

Wakefield

 

Not really a bad 5 man, considering.. Sure Dice-K is a "?" as is Wake but I'm comfortable with it as it is provided they stay healthy.. I don't feel like this offseason is the one to make THEE impact.. just not enough big fish floating around out there.. next offseason is a better class (I'm pretty sure) and we'll have a lot more money coming off the books

 

and I'm not saying the Sox should do nothing but the 2 major concerns should be LF and SS.. there's an easy 1 year answer at short in A-Gon and LF .. f*** it.. throw Holliday the money

[bsox0407]

Side note: Tek Picked up his 3 million dollar option for next year. we have or back up catcher and it keeps the Captain around for one more year.

[jacksonianmarch]

Wells, I have read nothing on Holliday and the sox. Nothing. Everything I am reading is on the full court press Theo is trying to put on for Bay to re-sign.

 

Also, you really feel comfortable with DiceK, Buch, and Wake as the back 3? Good rotations have 3 reliable pitchers. I can see Lester being reliable. Beckett is semi-reliable with his health being his only detractor. But the other three are not reliable at this time. You need one more starter who can give you 200IP. If you dont get that, you arent coming close to the AL East title.

[Dipre]

Wells, I have read nothing on Holliday and the sox. Nothing. Everything I am reading is on the full court press Theo is trying to put on for Bay to re-sign.

 

Also, you really feel comfortable with DiceK, Buch, and Wake as the back 3? Good rotations have 3 reliable pitchers. I can see Lester being reliable. Beckett is semi-reliable with his health being his only detractor. But the other three are not reliable at this time. You need one more starter who can give you 200IP. If you dont get that, you arent coming close to the AL East title.

 

The sky is blue.

 

There is good in the world.

[example1]

The real factor here is whether he'll be reluctant to accept a contract extension in the case that he was dead set on leaving Seattle. Otherwise' date=' he stays a Mariner[/quote']

 

From 2008:

http://www.seattlepi.com/baseball/353181_mbok29.html

 

"Felix would be in the same category as the two infielders," Bavasi said earlier in the month. "But it takes two to tango, so we'll see how it goes. It's a matter of giving that level of player more money now to be able to give them less later. They get their first fortune."

 

Yes Bavasi, Felix Hernandez is in the same category as Betancourt and Lopez. They're exactly the same. Give them more money now to give him less later... That's not exactly what he was looking for.

 

 

The piece that nobody seems to address is this: if Felix were truly off limits, or "absolutely not being traded" then why did Theo spend any time on it at all? Why would he have spent any time trying to work out a 3 way deal? Why not spend that time going after ALbert Pujols or Derek Jeter or someone else who is also "absolutely not being traded?"

 

Do people here think Theo is an idiot who spends lots of time on deals that aren't going to happen? Do people here think they know the facts and realities on the ground about these players better than he does? I mean, on the surface I get why people are skeptical, but why would Theo have tried to make the move and then go back and say "it is something we may revisit in the offseason" if he is meeting nothing but a brick wall.

 

Felix may be worth 10 WARP every year between now and when he becomes a FA (so, 20 WARP). He may cost $17m/yr in arbitration and the Mariners could probably get 3-4 times that amount back for virtually no money.

 

I don't understand why people think this is not just improbable, but absolutely impossible. If it were impossible it would never have come up in the first place and the article cited on this board would have had the new GM saying "absolutely no chance we deal him", not "we will cross our 't's' and dot our 'i's'. That's not an absolute.

[Dipre]

From 2008:

http://www.seattlepi.com/baseball/353181_mbok29.html

 

"Felix would be in the same category as the two infielders," Bavasi said earlier in the month. "But it takes two to tango, so we'll see how it goes. It's a matter of giving that level of player more money now to be able to give them less later. They get their first fortune."

 

Yes Bavasi, Felix Hernandez is in the same category as Betancourt and Lopez. They're exactly the same. Give them more money now to give him less later... That's not exactly what he was looking for.

 

 

The piece that nobody seems to address is this: if Felix were truly off limits, or "absolutely not being traded" then why did Theo spend any time on it at all? Why would he have spent any time trying to work out a 3 way deal? Why not spend that time going after ALbert Pujols or Derek Jeter or someone else who is also "absolutely not being traded?"

 

Do people here think Theo is an idiot who spends lots of time on deals that aren't going to happen? Do people here think they know the facts and realities on the ground about these players better than he does? I mean, on the surface I get why people are skeptical, but why would Theo have tried to make the move and then go back and say "it is something we may revisit in the offseason" if he is meeting nothing but a brick wall.

 

Felix may be worth 10 WARP every year between now and when he becomes a FA (so, 20 WARP). He may cost $17m/yr in arbitration and the Mariners could probably get 3-4 times that amount back for virtually no money.

 

I don't understand why people think this is not just improbable, but absolutely impossible. If it were impossible it would never have come up in the first place and the article cited on this board would have had the new GM saying "absolutely no chance we deal him", not "we will cross our 't's' and dot our 'i's'. That's not an absolute.

 

No player is untouchable.

 

But logic would dictate that Seattle would do everything in their power to extend him before trading him.

 

No one here is saying Theo's an idiot, but "it takes two to Tango", and Seattle is a team that's a couple of breaks from making the playoffs.

 

Let's stick to reality here, please. The other teams in MLB are not feeding tubes for the Yanks and Sox.

[Lester82]

Yeah... I'm not "confident" about that Buchholz guy being a #3 starter on this team.

 

HUH?

Also, you really feel comfortable with DiceK, Buch, and Wake as the back 3? Good rotations have 3 reliable pitchers. I can see Lester being reliable. Beckett is semi-reliable with his health being his only detractor. But the other three are not reliable at this time. You need one more starter who can give you 200IP. If you dont get that, you arent coming close to the AL East title.

 

You do realize this is actually a real concern for the Yankees going into next year, more so than for Boston?

[Lester82]

Beckett is semi-reliable with his health being his only detractor.

 

And...

 

If you think that he's going to allow himself to be semi-reliable in a contract year, then you're probably not going to expect the monster season that I think he will have. 2007-esque

[Wells]

Wells, I have read nothing on Holliday and the sox. Nothing. Everything I am reading is on the full court press Theo is trying to put on for Bay to re-sign.

 

Also, you really feel comfortable with DiceK, Buch, and Wake as the back 3? Good rotations have 3 reliable pitchers. I can see Lester being reliable. Beckett is semi-reliable with his health being his only detractor. But the other three are not reliable at this time. You need one more starter who can give you 200IP. If you dont get that, you arent coming close to the AL East title.

 

What choice does any sensible fan have than to be comfortable with it? Sure I want the Sox to win but I don't want to see them skimming for turds at the surface of the FA Pool either.. This is not the offseason to go balls out .. they'll end up looking like the '05-'06 Yankees if they do that.. yes they have to do something with LF and SS but I one more year of Lowell isn't going to kill us.. can't lose Ortiz though (even ... especially if somehow they manage to get Adrian Gonzalez)

 

as far as the rotation though I feel pretty good about Buchholz and Dice-K (provided Dice sticks with the f***ing program.. plus there's no WBC to worry on) .. Wakefield is a serious question mark with a lot of "ifs" though but hell.. nothing a bargain reclaimation hump can't fix

 

and like Lester82 said: Beckett is going into a contract year.. what do you think he's gonna do?

[example1]

No one here is saying Theo's an idiot, but "it takes two to Tango", and Seattle is a team that's a couple of breaks from making the playoffs.

 

If they make the playoffs its because the Angels and Rangers have faltered badly.

 

They had a 75-87 pythag this year, out performing it by 10 games. I see a very flawed team with little of substance coming through the ranks (Dustin Ackley looks to be good though).

 

Let's stick to reality here, please. The other teams in MLB are not feeding tubes for the Yanks and Sox.

 

I will politely turn down your request to stick to reality, my good sir.

 

I get that other teams are not feeding tubes for the Yanks and Sox. That doesn't mean that occasionally the Sox don't aim very high and score. I think Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Curt Schilling were all examples of the Sox going hard after elite SP.

 

If Felix fits that profile--and Theo said he is the pitcher he would start a franchise with--then why would it be unreasonable for me to think the Sox are going to resume trying to get him? If it was worth trying during the season I imagine it is at least as worth trying now.

 

If the Mariners learn soon that he won't be resigning with them for any reasonable price, they will undoubtedly start fielding offers. I think the Sox could be a good choice because I'm very doubtful that there are many potential replacement arms that are better than Buchholz, and Buchholz could easily be used in a different deal. Seattle has to jump on whatever makes the most sense for them longterm if they know Felix isn't coming back in 2 years. It is similar to the Papelbon situation, but Felix is more valuable and Seattle is in much worse shape than Boston is.

[a700hitter]

I get that other teams are not feeding tubes for the Yanks and Sox. That doesn't mean that occasionally the Sox don't aim very high and score. I think Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Curt Schilling were all examples of the Sox going hard after elite SP.

 

If Felix fits that profile--and Theo said he is the pitcher he would start a franchise with--then why would it be unreasonable for me to think the Sox are going to resume trying to get him? If it was worth trying during the season I imagine it is at least as worth trying now.

 

If the Mariners learn soon that he won't be resigning with them for any reasonable price, they will undoubtedly start fielding offers. I think the Sox could be a good choice because I'm very doubtful that there are many potential replacement arms that are better than Buchholz, and Buchholz could easily be used in a different deal. Seattle has to jump on whatever makes the most sense for them longterm if they know Felix isn't coming back in 2 years. It is similar to the Papelbon situation, but Felix is more valuable and Seattle is in much worse shape than Boston is.

The Schilling and Dice K cases are not comparable. Schilllng was an aging star looking for 1 final big pay day. Arizona was not in a position to take such a risk so they gave him to us for a bag of balls. With Dice K there was no team on the other side of that acquisition. The Beckett situation is comparable, but we had to give up an everyday major league ready player in Hanley and we had to be willing to take a salary dump with Lowell. Other than Buchholz, do we have any major league ready budding stars that we could trade. I don't think that the Mariners make the pitcher for pitcher swap. IMO it is more realistic for the Sox to pursue Adrian Gonzalez and Halladay.

[Dipre]

To e1:

 

I understand your man-crush for Felix, but there's no chance they trade him if they can extend him, and like Clint said, the Schill and Dice-K situations were completely different.

[a700hitter]

I think it is also doubtful that we can land Adrian Gonzalez who is the one star that SD has and he is still very young. Unfortunately for the Sox, in a year when they need to add some big pieces, the FA market contains almost no top tier talent. It was the same story after 2006, when the Sox paid a king"s ransom for second tier talent. Last year when the market was loaded they sat on their hands and let all the top guys sign elsewhere. That was very short-sighted.

[Dipre]

I think it is also doubtful that we can land Adrian Gonzalez who is the one star that SD has and he is still very young. Unfortunately for the Sox' date=' in a year when they need to add some big pieces, the FA market contains almost no top tier talent. It was the same story after 2006, when the Sox paid a king"s ransom for second tier talent. Last year when the market was loaded they sat on their hands and let all the top guys sign elsewhere. That was very short-sighted.[/quote']

 

A-Gon is an enormous longshot as well, but he's much more realistic than King Felix.

[BoSox21]

Say what you want about the likelyhood of SD trading Gonzo but his name has been in talks for months and SD has done nothing to refute any of those reports...

[Dipre]

Say what you want about the likelyhood of SD trading Gonzo but his name has been in talks for months and SD has done nothing to refute any of those reports...

 

That's what i've always said, yet have been called unrealistic. I think it's a longshot simply because of the package it would require, but trading him and bringing its farm back from the land of the dead is a sensible idea for SD.

[BoSox21]

Anytime you're talking about trading for the face of a franchise and one of the best hitters in baseball, it's unlikely and a longshot. But it makes sense for both teams, the Sox have the pieces and they have a good rapport with the Padres GM

[Dipre]

Anytime you're talking about trading for the face of a franchise and one of the best hitters in baseball' date=' it's unlikely and a longshot. But it makes sense for both teams, the Sox have the pieces and they have a good rapport with the Padres GM[/quote']

 

And again, SD's farm system is absolutely barren, just like their ML club. The team needs to rebuild, and that's common knowledge.

[a700hitter]

A-Gon is an enormous longshot as well' date=' but he's much more realistic than King Felix.[/quote']Getting him will cost most of our top prospects, and keeping him long term will cost a pretty penny too. When you go the FA route, you pay top dollar and you lose draft choices, but I'd rather lose a draft choice than a prospect that the organization has groomed for several years. That has an intrinsic cost as well.

[Dipre]

Getting him will cost most of our top prospects' date=' and keeping him long term will cost a pretty penny too. When you go the FA route, you pay top dollar and you lose draft choices, but I'd rather lose a draft choice than a prospect that the organization has groomed for several years. That has an intrinsic cost as well.[/quote']

 

A-Gon would be worth it IMO.

 

And i don't think any hitter of his caliber will hit the market anytime soon. I honestly don't think Mauer or Pujols will reach the FA market.

[Paradisecity]

In a very good lineup (which the sox have) and in Fenway, A-Gon would be a triple crown contender.

[Dipre]

In a very good lineup (which the sox have) and in Fenway' date=' A-Gon would be a triple crown contender.[/quote']

 

I think they should go the whole nine yards to try and pry him loose from the Padres.

[a700hitter]

A-Gon would be worth it IMO.

 

And i don't think any hitter of his caliber will hit the market anytime soon. I honestly don't think Mauer or Pujols will reach the FA market.

I think they have to make the big play for him. My point is that in the end, getting Tex would probably be cheaper than getting Gonzalez, because of what he will cost in prospects.

[Dipre]

I think they have to make the big play for him. My point is that in the end' date=' getting Tex would probably be cheaper than getting Gonzalez, because of what he will cost in prospects.[/quote']

 

But Tex is a Yankee.

 

It's done, over, the past. So let it go.

[BSN07]

But Tex is a Yankee.

 

It's done, over, the past. So let it go.

 

People got all excited and emotionally attached when they thought Tex was a guarantee to go to Boston. Then he chose NY for his own personal reasons and people got all butt-hurt over it and can't let it go...

 

To me Tex is a Yankee douche, and that is all.

 

If people want to play the "what happened in the past" game, they should get mad at the Sox FO personnel that was in place when Tex was drafted by Boston and subsequently not signed.

[Dipre]

People got all excited and emotionally attached when they thought Tex was a guarantee to go to Boston. Then he chose NY for his own personal reasons and people got all butt-hurt over it and can't let it go...

 

To me Tex is a Yankee douche, and that is all.

 

If people want to play the "what happened in the past" game, they should get mad at the Sox FO personnel that was in place when Tex was drafted by Boston and subsequently not signed.

 

Fantastic use of the word butt-hurt. Kudos.

[Paradisecity]

I get what you guys are saying about getting over Tex, I dont think that is what he is getting at though- I think 700's point is that if the Sox weren't ready to pull the trigger on that deal, they wont pull the trigger on an A-Gon deal because it will end up costing them more over those years than the Tex deal in opportunity costs, salaries to replace what would be prospect players, and re-filling the prospect cabinet.