Official 2009-2010 Hot Stove season thread

[Dojji]

Depending on the price I'm not sure this is true. The plan currently is for 2010 to be a transition year of sorts. Ortiz' date=' Lowell, Beckett, and Martinez all have expiring contracts and a lot of money will be coming off the books (3 of their 4 most expensive contracts, $43.5m). If they add Halliday this year they would open that salary as well and improve the team's chances of winning the WS in 2010. It would be a rewarding way to make a final run with this core group.[/quote']

 

I think that's a bit too short-sighted. The only way this argument makes sense is if you're fully committed to punting over the next 2+ years and rebuilding from youth. I see no reason to believe we need to do that.

 

With Joe Mauer very probably hitting free agency I can see letting Victor Martinez go. Otherwise I think both Beckett and Victor re-up.

 

 

 

Either way, someone is going to be blocking their way. The Red Sox aren't just going to disappear.

 

But if they don't trade for and then extend Halladay, they're more likely to disappear than they are if they can do those things.

 

One thing is for sure. Halladay may be past his prime but assuming good health he's going to be effective for at least the next 3-4 years. He's got a combination of power and command that you don't see that often and guys like Halladay rarely just fall off a cliff without an injury to blame it on. I see no reason not to push for an extension.

 

Perhaps the Jays don't bite on an in-division trade for Halladay and the Sox overpay and get Felix Hernandez. Think the Jay's will have a better chance when they lose Halladay to FA anyway, while the Sox have acquired Felix?

 

The Blue Jays' only choices aren't "trade Halladay to the Sox" and "lose Halladay to FA." You can bet your boots there will be several other teams making a price check in that aisle. The Cubs spring to mind as a near guaranteed bidder.

 

All that aside, the Jays don't have to "beat" the Sox/Yankees to get into the playoffs. They need to win their games against all teams and put up a playoff worthy record.

 

Which involves putting up a better record than at least one of....

[example1]

I think that's a bit too short-sighted. The only way this argument makes sense is if you're fully committed to punting over the next 2+ years and rebuilding from youth. I see no reason to believe we need to do that.

 

Transition does not mean bad. Even the years where they are transitioning can be really positive, especially if a FA like Halladay is brought in for a run.

 

With Joe Mauer very probably hitting free agency I can see letting Victor Martinez go. Otherwise I think both Beckett and Victor re-up.

 

I would love to see them resign Victor Martinez. Even if they resigned him I could see them making a run at Mauer. In the last 5 years of Mauer's deal any team that signs him should be prepared for him to be a DH or 1B. Between he and VMart they would have quite a combination of catchers/1B/DH, which would be a strange position of strength to have, but a bad one.

 

 

One thing is for sure. Halladay may be past his prime but assuming good health he's going to be effective for at least the next 3-4 years. He's got a combination of power and command that you don't see that often and guys like Halladay rarely just fall off a cliff without an injury to blame it on. I see no reason not to push for an extension.

 

Absolutely. I agree. Halladay for a few more years would be great. Expensive, but great.

 

The Blue Jays' only choices aren't "trade Halladay to the Sox" and "lose Halladay to FA." You can bet your boots there will be several other teams making a price check in that aisle. The Cubs spring to mind as a near guaranteed bidder.

 

While I agree that the Sox aren't the only ones who will be interested, I can't imagine the Cubs being able to top a package the Sox could produce. The Sox are likely one of the teams most interested in trading their young talent for a top WAR guy.

[Dojji]

Really? You don't think the Dodgers could use a bona fide ace and have pieces to deal?

[bostonule25]

EDIT: If Holliday is set on going to the Yankees and Bay is questionable then the Sox MUST get that impact bat (and probably all impact players they will need in the future) through trade. Adrian Gonzalez or Hanley or Prince Fielder. No need to wait. Make it happen by Thanksgiving.

 

agreed

[Lester82]

It's one thing to say you'd like to play for the Yankees, a contender, but to say the Mets are your #2 choice is .... a tad funny. Hey, if he prefers the Mets over say the Red Sox and Cardinals - Then God Bless

 

Cause that's what you're saying when you say 1.) Yankees 2.) METS

 

Yes. Money matters. But, ah... the Mets - fail !

[Lester82]

The Mets new stadium could be a tough place to hit for Holliday, he'll love bringing back that Oakland ballpark feel while being in 3rd place to the Phillies and Braves/Marlins

 

That's if Bernie Madoff didn't run away with the money that Wilpon had earmarked for someone like Matty Holliday . . .

[Dojji]

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/273811-zack-greinke-to-milwaukee-deal-all-but-done

 

I expect this to be debunked sometime in the next 15 minutes. However IF Greinke is on the move we HAVE to be in on that. Felix might not move at all and Halladay's over 30. The moment Greinke enters the trade market he's the best piece on it.

 

 

 

I have to think we could beat Parra, Hardy, Salome and Gamel.

[jacksonianmarch]

You mean the guy who said he doesnt want to play in NY because of the pressure? If he thinks NY is pressure than what is Boston? Greinke is an awesome talent, and if his head is right, he'll be dominating. But that is a huge if.

[Dojji]

Not as huge as it was 2 years ago.

 

I don't really think Greinke's on the marlet. I think kansas City would be insane to deal him. But this is Kansas City, so who the heck knows?

 

If they're blowing it up, I wouldn't mind kicking the tires on Gil Meche. Not the best pitcher in the world, but a solid innings burner and costing enough money to be talent-cheap.

[Dojji]

LOL a little later than I thought, but the rumor has already been taken down.

[jacksonianmarch]

Cafardo speculates a few things in his most recent article. http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/articles/2009/10/18/mattingly_may_be_ready_to_step_up_to_the_plate_in_managerial_position/?page=full

 

One is that Stephen Drew should be available. Drew turns 27 in March and plays a pretty good SS. His left handedness makes him a bit less of a fit for Boston, but he has power to all fields. After a breakout 2008 (21HR .835OPS), Drew regressed to 12HRs and a .748OPS in 2009. He will be entering his first arbitration yr and should be looking at around $2mil, and the DBacks are in financial dire straits. Cafardo thinks that Drew could be better in a deeper, more patient lineup.

 

The other is that Theo will definitely be in on the Adrian Gonzalez sweepstakes. Cafardo questions the depth of the sox minor league system in terms of a package for Gonzalez. It is a valid question, IMO. While the sox have loaded up on talent in the 2009 draft, none of that is trade eligible until spring training anyway, and most teams dont want guys who havent played above short season. The sox biggest trade chips have since worked their way into pretty viral positions on the staff. Bard is the setup man, while Buchholz has worked his way into the #3 or #4 spot in the rotation. That leaves Bowden and Tazawa as the biggest trade chips that are close to MLB ready, especially with Lars Anderson having had an awful season in Portland. That may change by midseason, though, when Reddick has a full yr in AAA and Casey Kelly could be as high as AA or AAA based upon how he churns through hitters. But as of right now, I dont see how the sox get Gonzalez without dipping into their current MLB club.

[Dipre]

Cafardo speculates a few things in his most recent article. http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/articles/2009/10/18/mattingly_may_be_ready_to_step_up_to_the_plate_in_managerial_position/?page=full

 

One is that Stephen Drew should be available. Drew turns 27 in March and plays a pretty good SS. His left handedness makes him a bit less of a fit for Boston, but he has power to all fields. After a breakout 2008 (21HR .835OPS), Drew regressed to 12HRs and a .748OPS in 2009. He will be entering his first arbitration yr and should be looking at around $2mil, and the DBacks are in financial dire straits. Cafardo thinks that Drew could be better in a deeper, more patient lineup.

 

The other is that Theo will definitely be in on the Adrian Gonzalez sweepstakes. Cafardo questions the depth of the sox minor league system in terms of a package for Gonzalez. It is a valid question, IMO. While the sox have loaded up on talent in the 2009 draft, none of that is trade eligible until spring training anyway, and most teams dont want guys who havent played above short season. The sox biggest trade chips have since worked their way into pretty viral positions on the staff. Bard is the setup man, while Buchholz has worked his way into the #3 or #4 spot in the rotation. That leaves Bowden and Tazawa as the biggest trade chips that are close to MLB ready, especially with Lars Anderson having had an awful season in Portland. That may change by midseason, though, when Reddick has a full yr in AAA and Casey Kelly could be as high as AA or AAA based upon how he churns through hitters. But as of right now, I dont see how the sox get Gonzalez without dipping into their current MLB club.

 

Of course it is a valid question mark in your opinion. Just like anything that would benefit the Sox. However, taking an unbiased look you'd see that the Sox could set up a convincing package of what the Padres want the most, position players. But hey, according to you and Cafardo, the Sox couldn't create a five position-player package to save their life amirite?

 

It's not like Anderson (1B ) ,Kelly (SP/SS), Reddick (OF), Ryan Kalish (OF), Yamaico Navarro (SS), Luis Exposito ©, Che-Hsuan Lin (OF), and Ryan Westermoreland (OF) are enough pieces to come up with a solid proposal for Gonzales right?

 

Throw in Michael Bowden (SP), Stolmy Pimentel (SP), and Felix Doubront and it's pretty obvious the Sox would be in a hopeless situation if they ever wanted to come up with a package for Gonzales, having to include pieces from the Major League club right? right?

 

Because San Diego sees itself contending next year, they're gonna stop acquiring the best available talent because it's not above AA, right?

 

Interesting.

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox could get it done. But it isnt like it was before, when they could deal away 2 or 3 guys for a player and not feel the pain in the system. The sox system has become incredibly bottom loaded with the 08 and 09 draft and some of the INTL signees. Their upper level guys either lost value or caught on with the big club in enough of a capacity to make them difficult to move.

 

In order to get Gonzalez, they would have to absolutely rape their system. And the deal you talk about above would completely rape them, to a point that could set them back 2 yrs of development. And when you consider 2010 to be a development yr to begin with (no big prospects on the cusp of the majors), then you might not see meaningful MLB gains from the MiLB ranks until 2013. You really want that?

 

A deal with Reddick, Anderson, and Kelly wouldnt be enough IMO, and would be against the grain from Theo anyway. He's all about value. Reddick has some value, but he really doesnt look like a corner OFer and he's blocked in CF. So dealing him makes sense. Dealing Anderson right now wouldnt be on line with what Theo seems to be all about. Why trade a guy who was a top 30 MLB prospect last yr after he has one bad minor league season. He'll get 20 cents on the dollar. Same with Casey Kelly, the sox #1 prospect. He looks like he could be a hell of a pitcher. But having only thrown 95 MiLB innings and only reaching High A for 8 starts is not enough to thrust him into the level of an elite prospect. If the sox waited until mid season and had Kelly performing in AA, then it works.

 

You might be looking at a deal of 5 players or more to get Gonzo. Reddick, Kelly, Anderson, Bowden, Kalish. Something like that. It has more to do with SD's leverage (2 yrs of cost controlled production) and also the regression of some of the sox top prospects. And IMO, that deal is too steep a price to pay. That may be what Cafardo is looking at. It can get done. But it would hurt a lot.

[BSN07]

The Sox could probably afford to trade a good portion of their upper tier prospects and still be ok IMO. Martinez has the Catchers spot for a couple years at least if he re-ups. Youk has 1B or 3B locked down, 2B is set, SS needs to be dealt with, LF is open, CF is set for 3+ years, RF is set for another 2. The pitching staff has multiple players that are locked in. There just isn't a need IMO currently for the farm system to replenish the ML roster. And they could fill any short term needs with FA on short term deals.

 

I don't if they do it, but I just believe they could if they wanted.

[Dojji]

I agree. The only minor league player we absolutely need to keep hold of right now IMHO is one of Reddick and Kalish.

[jacksonianmarch]

thats kind of a short sighted view of things though. Take a look at your team...

 

These guys are free agents after 2010- Mike Lowell, Josh Beckett, Victor Martinez, David Ortiz to name a few.

 

Now, nobody is completely commited to Martinez after 2010. He'll be 31 prior to the 2010 season and has seen his defense decline. There are those who think he'll be converted to a 1B by the end of 2010, meaning that the catcher spot will be wide open. Ortiz opens a hole at DH. Lowell opens the hole at 3b, which will likely get filled by Youkilis, and subsequently opens a hole at 1B. Beckett leaving would open a hole at the top of the rotation. Do you really want to fill all those holes with FAs? That is not like Theo. They can do it, but I doubt they will.

[Dojji]

THe prospects to fill most of those holes aren't exactly in place either, so it's either FA or trade.

[jacksonianmarch]

Well, you could use those guys to get younger players at the needed positions. If you use them all up on one big piece, then you lose the leverage to fill those holes with cheap players from other teams.

[BSN07]

thats kind of a short sighted view of things though. Take a look at your team...

 

These guys are free agents after 2010- Mike Lowell, Josh Beckett, Victor Martinez, David Ortiz to name a few.

 

Now, nobody is completely commited to Martinez after 2010. He'll be 31 prior to the 2010 season and has seen his defense decline. There are those who think he'll be converted to a 1B by the end of 2010, meaning that the catcher spot will be wide open. Ortiz opens a hole at DH. Lowell opens the hole at 3b, which will likely get filled by Youkilis, and subsequently opens a hole at 1B. Beckett leaving would open a hole at the top of the rotation. Do you really want to fill all those holes with FAs? That is not like Theo. They can do it, but I doubt they will.

 

I'm not saying they should do it, just that they could.

[jacksonianmarch]

Erik Bedard conversation per mlbtraderumors.com

 

Discussion: Erik Bedard

By Tim Dierkes [October 19 at 2:30pm CST]

A few years ago, it seemed possible that Erik Bedard could score a massive $20MM per year free agent contract upon reaching free agency after the 2009 season. One huge trade and two disappointing seasons later, he's likely to sign a one-year deal.

 

Bedard, who turns 31 in March, was at peak value after whiffing 221 in 182 innings for the '07 Orioles. In one of the most lopsided trades of the decade, the Orioles sent the lefty to Seattle for Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman, Kam Mickolio, and Tony Butler. Sherrill has since been spun into prospects Josh Bell and Steven Johnson by the O's.

 

Bedard was named the Mariners' 2008 Opening Day starter in February, and he avoided arbitration by signing for $7MM shortly thereafter. He was plagued by hip inflammation, back spasms, and shoulder tightness, which culminated in September shoulder surgery. Having tossed only 81 innings, Bedard was content with a $750K raise plus incentives for his 2009 contract. Bedard's '09 injuries were minor until June, when shoulder problems resurfaced. Exploratory surgery performed in August found a torn labrum and inflamed bursa. His recovery has him throwing in four to six months, meaning he might not be ready for Opening Day 2010.

 

The Red Sox are a natural fit for Bedard, as GM Theo Epstein was not scared off by the failed buy-low attempts on Brad Penny and John Smoltz last winter. Smoltz's $5.5MM guarantee may represent the upper bound for a pitcher coming off surgery. Smoltz's labrum surgery was in June of '08, and the Sox were initially targeting June of '09 for his debut. Bedard's team will have to be more aggressive, otherwise he would be debuting in August.

 

Other clubs looking to add to their rotation include the Brewers, Nationals, Mets, and Diamondbacks. The Cardinals, Orioles, Guardians, Twins, A's, Royals, and Rangers could be other possibilities. Even a return to the Mariners can't be ruled out. Where do you see Bedard signing, and for what kind of contract?

[BSN07]

Anyone think Andruw Jones could work off then bench?

[bsox0407]

Anyone think Andruw Jones could work off then bench?

 

lets bring back coco. i think andruw jones would work well off the bench but he needs to hit better. great fielder but not as a good a hitter anymore.

[Dipre]

Anyone think Andruw Jones could work off then bench?

 

Not at all.

 

His defense and work ethic leave a lot to be desired.

[TheKilo]

OK' date=' so let's ask the question again. Which lefties that we brought here clearly had their HR go down? Quite honestly the only guy I can think of is Eric Hinske.[/quote']

 

JD Drew

[example1]

Anyone think Andruw Jones could work off then bench?

 

I'm not going to labor this question, because it isn't worth it.

 

I don't know how after so many years of watching this team and actively discussing them we could think about doing anything like bringing in Andruw Jones. He is absolutely not the type of player the Red Sox would go after. He's not versatile enough to be on the bench. He's hit .158 and .214 the past two seasons--even if he had a good IsoD (it's decent) that's too many outs for a good club. This team should be trying to get better, not older, slower and shittier.

 

.... I'm sure others will jump in with anti BSN07 comments, which would be unwarranted. I appreciate BSN07's enthusiasm about this team and his consistent posting. A good guy to have around.

 

.... okay, that's out of the way now.

 

 

I think this team is one move away from being a really strong contender. It is fair to say that lost in the midst of all this s*** about the Yankees being so good is the fact that the Sox quite probably have the better pitching staff of the two teams. Their SPs are more balanced, younger, cheaper and at least as productive overall.

 

While we all watch the Yankees win in the playoffs it is hard to do anything other than complain and bitch and moan (i've done plenty of it). However, if Theo were actually able to pull off one of the "big moves" that we have discussed ad nauseum, this team would be right there with the Yankees again. Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, Prince Fielder... probably a few others too. That's not far off.

 

Most of us are doubtful that they will spend what it takes to get big FAs, but I have reason to believe that they can pull off a big trade and that Theo will probably just fly under the radar for awhile until that happens.

 

The more I think about it, the more I realize that despite the dire prognostications about the next season or two being "rebuilding" or "quite" or whatever, there is no way that they can waste years of Drew, Matsuzaka, Papelbon, Youkilis, Pedroia, Lester and Ellsbury being in their primes. They didn't sign these guys to play on a mediocre team. They signed them to be the core of a good franchise. I see every reason to think that the FO sees the club as closer than they might let on to other clubs and I think they will hold their cards very close to their chest throughout the offseason. Transparancy is overrated.

[Dipre]

But according to Jacko, we can't pull off any of those deals because our farm system is not good enough.

 

After all, the Red Sox suck at everything right?

[example1]

Actually, I think Jacko has (in the past) given the Sox system and drafts their due.

 

How anyone can look at the past few Sox drafts, and the success of their drafted successes (Pedroia, Ellsbury, Buchholz, Bard, Masterson, etc.,) and somehow think that their success isn't going to continue is beyond me.

 

I am pretty psyched about A LOT of their minor leaguers, even if they're 2-3 years away, they will eventually either make it or they will be traded for someone very, very good. In Theo I trust.

[Dipre]

Actually' date=' I think Jacko has [b'](in the past)[/b] given the Sox system and drafts their due.

 

How anyone can look at the past few Sox drafts, and the success of their drafted successes (Pedroia, Ellsbury, Buchholz, Bard, Masterson, etc.,) and somehow think that their success isn't going to continue is beyond me.

 

I am pretty psyched about A LOT of their minor leaguers, even if they're 2-3 years away, they will eventually either make it or they will be traded for someone very, very good. In Theo I trust.

 

Nothing more needs to be said.

[bostonule25]

I agree. The only minor league player we absolutely need to keep hold of right now IMHO is one of Reddick and Kalish.

 

Maybe it's just me, but I think westmoreland is a must keep, he's a 5 tool prospect, and even though he's a few years away, he looks like a very special hitter

[BSN07]

I'm not going to labor this question, because it isn't worth it.

 

I don't know how after so many years of watching this team and actively discussing them we could think about doing anything like bringing in Andruw Jones. He is absolutely not the type of player the Red Sox would go after. He's not versatile enough to be on the bench. He's hit .158 and .214 the past two seasons--even if he had a good IsoD (it's decent) that's too many outs for a good club. This team should be trying to get better, not older, slower and shittier.

 

.... I'm sure others will jump in with anti BSN07 comments, which would be unwarranted. I appreciate BSN07's enthusiasm about this team and his consistent posting. A good guy to have around.

 

.... okay, that's out of the way now.

 

 

I think this team is one move away from being a really strong contender. It is fair to say that lost in the midst of all this s*** about the Yankees being so good is the fact that the Sox quite probably have the better pitching staff of the two teams. Their SPs are more balanced, younger, cheaper and at least as productive overall.

 

While we all watch the Yankees win in the playoffs it is hard to do anything other than complain and bitch and moan (i've done plenty of it). However, if Theo were actually able to pull off one of the "big moves" that we have discussed ad nauseum, this team would be right there with the Yankees again. Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, Prince Fielder... probably a few others too. That's not far off.

 

Most of us are doubtful that they will spend what it takes to get big FAs, but I have reason to believe that they can pull off a big trade and that Theo will probably just fly under the radar for awhile until that happens.

 

The more I think about it, the more I realize that despite the dire prognostications about the next season or two being "rebuilding" or "quite" or whatever, there is no way that they can waste years of Drew, Matsuzaka, Papelbon, Youkilis, Pedroia, Lester and Ellsbury being in their primes. They didn't sign these guys to play on a mediocre team. They signed them to be the core of a good franchise. I see every reason to think that the FO sees the club as closer than they might let on to other clubs and I think they will hold their cards very close to their chest throughout the offseason. Transparancy is overrated.

 

Thanks I appreciate it.

 

Honestly I only brought him up as a guy that might provide a little pop from the RH side off the bench(17 HR in 82 games(yes I know, I didn't really make that obvious sorry)).That's all. I mean would it be any worse then having Jed Lowrie pinch hitting late in a crucial game?

 

I hope you didn't take it as I want him to be the full time LF and replace Bay:lol: