Official 2009-2010 Hot Stove season thread

[Dipre]

Bowden 17 runs in 16 innings.

 

Tazawa 23 in 25.1 innings.

 

i do give bowden a lower WHIP

but just under 15% of his hits given up where homers where as for tazawa it was just under 10%

 

SSS for both.

 

You need to take Minor League numbers into account, and since Bowden posted overall better numbers in a more advanced league, i'll go with Bowden.

 

Please think things through before posting.

[bsox0407]

They both sucked so much the difference is negligible.

 

agreed on most of that.

[jacksonianmarch]

tazawa just needed a few months to make it all the way to the Majors.

 

so did Kennedy

[bsox0407]

SSS for both.

 

You need to take Minor League numbers into account, and since Bowden posted overall better numbers in a more advanced league, i'll go with Bowden.

 

Please think things through before posting.

 

tazawa is going to better in the long run. i believe. its what i have been saying all along. i said earlier that i think he will be as good one day as buchholz was this year.

[Dipre]

tazawa is going to better in the long run. i believe. its what i have been saying all along. i said earlier that i think he will be as good one day as buchholz was this year.

 

You didn't say "one day" you said "next year".

 

Which is it?

[bsox0407]

You didn't say "one day" you said "next year".

 

Which is it?

 

i meant one day. i miss spoke earlier on that one word. he will be stronger and will pitch better of the next few years. i accidentally omitted the word few.

[Dipre]

i meant one day. i miss spoke earlier on that one word. he will be stronger and will pitch better of the next few years. i accidentally omitted the word few.

 

That's a whole other deal then.

[bsox0407]

That's a whole other deal then.

 

my bad for not reiterating that point earlier. he is also gonna be bigger when being on an american work out method.

[BSN07]

Maybe the Sox can just include tazawa in a deal for felix or gonzalez instead of Buchholz.

 

I think that could work if it was Tazawa+1 in place of Buchholz.

[bsox0407]

I think that could work if it was Tazawa+1 in place of Buchholz.

 

i would go for that. maybe bowden and tazawa.

 

I think that in about 5 or six years a kid named jason knapp will makes some news in the mlb. i know him and he can really throw f***ing hard. i faced him and he blew me away. he was junior and i was a sophomore. he threw really hard then. he is with cleveland. was listed as one of the top 10 prospects for the phillies.

 

http://www.topprospectalert.com/2010clevelandindiansprospects.htm

[Dipre]

I think that could work if it was Tazawa+1 in place of Buchholz.

 

Blatant sarcasm, BSN.

[BSN07]

Blatant sarcasm' date=' BSN.[/quote']

 

And by my response to it, I was trying to keep the sarcasm train rolling:D(I should have used the smilie....doh)

 

But seriously, Tazawa could be an add on in some big package. I don't honestly see him being the main SP in any package, even if you added someone with him. Teams are going to want near MLB ready pitchers in any deal for a SP like Felix. Tazawa needs some seasoning in the minors IMO. He might be able to learn on the job in the NL, but not in the AL.

 

I could see a Tazawa for Hardy maybe. The Brewers are looking for SP. Tazawa might be able to hack it out in the NL Central:dunno:

[Dojji]

And if he couldn't he's not our problem anymore, but there's some good faith issues with trading Tazawa. He DID sign here for less money mostly to pitch with Daisuke after all.

 

I know that doesn't really amount to anything, but I think that if Boston wants to keep the talent pipeline from Japan open they should probably avoid reaming the players that sign from there.

[BSN07]

And if he couldn't he's not our problem anymore, but there's some good faith issues with trading Tazawa. He DID sign here for less money mostly to pitch with Daisuke after all.

 

I know that doesn't really amount to anything, but I think that if Boston wants to keep the talent pipeline from Japan open they should probably avoid reaming the players that sign from there.

 

There is that.

[jacksonianmarch]

Good faith issues and Theo? You mean the guy who signed Arroyo to a discounted deal to stay in Boston and then dealt him immediately? Yeah, good faith and Theo dont seem to go hand in hand

[example1]

Good faith issues and Theo? You mean the guy who signed Arroyo to a discounted deal to stay in Boston and then dealt him immediately? Yeah' date=' good faith and Theo dont seem to go hand in hand[/quote']

 

Neither do unbiased and Jacksonianmarch.

 

Did Theo make an agreement with Arroyo that he wasn't going to trade him, and then trade him? If so then I agree. If he merely signed him to a longer deal and then dealt him then nobody would see that as bad faith, it's just business.

[example1]

Going back to these quotes from the post-trade deadline Seattle Times article:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2009583039_report_red_sox_discussed_packa.html

 

"We engaged, in previous days, we had some things working, things we were really excited about, and a couple that got really close, but didn't happen,'' Epstein said. "That's par for the course in deadline season. We shot big on a couple things, a deal that could provide maximum impact. We were very aggressive in use of our own prospects, those deals got close . . . Maybe the foundation is laid for the offseason.''

 

"Epstein said one deal required five or six prospects, but the pieces didn't quite fit. The Mariners listened to a half-dozen offers for Hernandez, but elected not to trade one of the best young, established pitchers in baseball. Epstein has always coveted Hernandez, once naming him when asked at a charity event a few years back which player he would start a team with."

 

I would be shocked if they didn't actually revisit this in the offseason.

 

I discussed this with a700 during the season, but what about Felix for Daisuke (plus):

 

First, their current contracts:

 

Dice-K: There may be some additional incentive $$ too but he is set to earn $8m, $8m, and $10m for the next 3 seasons. ($26m/3 years)

 

Felix: I would guess that next year he'll get at least $9m in arbitration, and at least $10m the season after that. Both of those figures would put him near the top for 5th and 6th year players who sign consecutive arbitration deals. ($19m/2 years)

 

Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for Felix and Dice-K for the length of their contracts, assuming that Dice-K is healthy (cue Jacko, cue ORS-Jacko chart)

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2009&month=0)

 

[Table] Player | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | WAR TOTAL | $$ TOTAL | $$/Win

Matsuzaka | 3.9 | 3.3 | 0.5 | (3.1) | (3.1) | (2.6) | 8.8 | $26 million | $2.95m/Win

Felix | 4.1 | 3.9 | 6.9 | (6.9) | (6.9) | (7.3) FA | 13.8 | $19 million | $1.37m/Win [/Table]

 

Clearly it is in Seattle's interest to keep Felix if it's Dice for Felix straight up. Both financially and win-wise. Now, let's suppose that the Sox include, say 4 other prospects:

 

Michael Bowden (23), Josh Reddick (22), Lars Anderson (22), Stolmy Pimentel (19)

 

I'll assume that two of these guys turn into regulars, but conservatively...

 

[table] NAME | 2010 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2010 | WAR

Bowden | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | FA | FA | FA | FA | 11.0

Reddick | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | FA | FA | FA | FA | 9.0

Anderson | AAA | .5 | .5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | FA | FA | FA | 7.5

Pimentel | AA | AA | AAA | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | FA | 6.0

[/table]

 

TOTAL: 33.5 WAR

 

To figure out how much these players will cost, I'll again be conservative, and assume roughly MLB minimum each minor league season. $2m total for all players in their first 3 years, then a reasonable $6m total each over the next three years: Bowden: $8m, Reddick: $8m, Anderson: $8.3m, Pimentel: $9m. TOTAL : $33.3m, $994,000 per-added win

 

To summarize:

Dice-K, Bowden, Reddick, Anderson and Pimenel would cost $59.3m for 42.3 WAR, over 28 player-seasons, 25 of them cost controlled. That's $1.4m/Win.

 

Felix gives $19m for 13.8 Wins over 2 player-seasons at ($1.37m/win).

 

All of the above is done quite conservatively: it assumes none of the players (including Dice-K) have any sort of breakout season. It assumes that Felix produces like he did this year (near Cy Young quality), rather than regressing at all over the next two years. It also assumes that Felix only makes $19m in arbitration the next two seasons.

 

I think the price in prospects and Dice-K would be worth it if they get Felix without moving Buchholz. Beckett becomes a FA after 2010. They could try to resign him for 2011 but they would be confident in having Hernandez (25), Lester (27) and Buchholz (26) as a top 3, with two of them cost controlled, all of them young and nasty, probably through their primes.

 

When Theo talks about "a deal that could provide maximum impact" I think something like that would be it.

[Lester82]

Excellent post

 

but tough to pull off without Buchholz. (on a side note .... Daisuke brings the Japanese market appeal for Seattle, which actually matters for Seattle's ownership, but it could be a tough sell for them to give Felix up for Dice, Bowden and even some of those others you mentioned.)

 

" Epstein said one deal required five or six prospects, but the pieces didn't quite fit. The Mariners listened to a half-dozen offers for Hernandez, but elected not to trade one of the best young, established pitchers in baseball."

 

Yeah, gonna have to back up the U-Haul, not that I blame Seattle.

[Lester82]

Even if we trade Buch, our rotation would be headlined by Felix, Lester for years. Excluding free agent Beckett in future outlook....

 

but yeah, it would be a lot more ideal to have Felix, Lester, Buch dominating baseball together.

 

God, 2010 would bring Felix, Beckett, Lester, Buch together on the SAME team if we kept Buch. Ah, sweet dreams...

[BSN07]

Going back to these quotes from the post-trade deadline Seattle Times article:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2009583039_report_red_sox_discussed_packa.html

 

 

 

I would be shocked if they didn't actually revisit this in the offseason.

 

I discussed this with a700 during the season, but what about Felix for Daisuke (plus):

 

First, their current contracts:

 

Dice-K: There may be some additional incentive $$ too but he is set to earn $8m, $8m, and $10m for the next 3 seasons. ($26m/3 years)

 

Felix: I would guess that next year he'll get at least $9m in arbitration, and at least $10m the season after that. Both of those figures would put him near the top for 5th and 6th year players who sign consecutive arbitration deals. ($19m/2 years)

 

Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for Felix and Dice-K for the length of their contracts, assuming that Dice-K is healthy (cue Jacko, cue ORS-Jacko chart)

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2009&month=0)

 

[Table] Player | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | WAR TOTAL | $$ TOTAL | $$/Win

Matsuzaka | 3.9 | 3.3 | 0.5 | (3.1) | (3.1) | (2.6) | 8.8 | $26 million | $2.95m/Win

Felix | 4.1 | 3.9 | 6.9 | (6.9) | (6.9) | (7.3) FA | 13.8 | $19 million | $1.37m/Win [/Table]

 

Clearly it is in Seattle's interest to keep Felix if it's Dice for Felix straight up. Both financially and win-wise. Now, let's suppose that the Sox include, say 4 other prospects:

 

Michael Bowden (23), Josh Reddick (22), Lars Anderson (22), Stolmy Pimentel (19)

 

I'll assume that two of these guys turn into regulars, but conservatively...

 

[table] NAME | 2010 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2010 | WAR

Bowden | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | FA | FA | FA | FA | 11.0

Reddick | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | FA | FA | FA | FA | 9.0

Anderson | AAA | .5 | .5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | FA | FA | FA | 7.5

Pimentel | AA | AA | AAA | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | FA | 6.0

[/table]

 

TOTAL: 33.5 WAR

 

To figure out how much these players will cost, I'll again be conservative, and assume roughly MLB minimum each minor league season. $2m total for all players in their first 3 years, then a reasonable $6m total each over the next three years: Bowden: $8m, Reddick: $8m, Anderson: $8.3m, Pimentel: $9m. TOTAL : $33.3m, $994,000 per-added win

 

To summarize:

Dice-K, Bowden, Reddick, Anderson and Pimenel would cost $59.3m for 42.3 WAR, over 28 player-seasons, 25 of them cost controlled. That's $1.4m/Win.

 

Felix gives $19m for 13.8 Wins over 2 player-seasons at ($1.37m/win).

 

All of the above is done quite conservatively: it assumes none of the players (including Dice-K) have any sort of breakout season. It assumes that Felix produces like he did this year (near Cy Young quality), rather than regressing at all over the next two years. It also assumes that Felix only makes $19m in arbitration the next two seasons.

 

I think the price in prospects and Dice-K would be worth it if they get Felix without moving Buchholz. Beckett becomes a FA after 2010. They could try to resign him for 2011 but they would be confident in having Hernandez (25), Lester (27) and Buchholz (26) as a top 3, with two of them cost controlled, all of them young and nasty, probably through their primes.

 

When Theo talks about "a deal that could provide maximum impact" I think something like that would be it.

 

Great post and I'm with you as usuaul.

 

I had similar thoughts earlier this season(trading Dice-K), but when I brought these thoughts up, it wasn't to a great response(especially right after the deadline when we first read the above quotes from Theo and the first Dice-K package for Felix was brought up). But this could have been due to it was just me coming up with another "wish list" type thing. But now that the respected ex1 brought it up, maybe the idea will gain some momentum:D

 

Dice-K/Kelly/+++ would be a very legit offer IMO.

[example1]

Great post and I'm with you as usuaul.

 

I had similar thoughts earlier this season(trading Dice-K), but when I brought these thoughts up, it wasn't to a great response(especially right after the deadline when we first read the above quotes from Theo and the first Dice-K package for Felix was brought up). But this could have been due to it was just me coming up with another "wish list" type thing. But now that the respected ex1 brought it up, maybe the idea will gain some momentum:D

 

Dice-K/Kelly/+++ would be a very legit offer IMO.

 

Well, to make it official, we should probably say that we are wishful thinking, based on Theo's quote and the rumored (and logical) interest in Felix. The quotes I posted earlier and reports from both Seattle and Boston indicate the Sox probably talked heavily with Seattle about him.

 

There was also the supposed list of prospects that the M's could choose 5 players from:

Clay Buchholz

Daniel Bard

Michael Bowden

Justin Masterson

Nick Hagadone

Josh Reddick

Yamaico Navarro

Felix Doubront

 

http://www.nesn.com/2009/08/report-red-sox-offered-buchholz-bard-bowden-for-felix-hernandez.html

 

To me that sounds like more than the FO would have been willing to give up, especially while also losing Buchholz.

 

My Dice-K speculation is about looking at options other than Buchholz and the value of the pieces involved. If we're going to evaluate any potential deals it is best to have a baseline value for the pieces we're talking about. I'm intentionally conservative about my projections so I reduce accusations of overvaluing the pieces the Sox send over. It seems realistic to me. The only question is whether the Mariners are open to trading Felix Hernandez--open to thinking about him as a value rather than as a player/person.

 

*Side note: has anyone seen the ESPN films movie called "Kings Ransom" about the trade of Wayne Gretzky? The Kings just kept asking for Gretzky and made it known that they would pay almost any price to get him. Inevitably it made sense for the Oilers owner to sell him to LA for a shitload of cash because he wanted to become the highest paid player and was approaching FA in a year or two. It is interesting because the Kings were just tenacious and didn't take no for an answer.

[jacksonianmarch]

Neither do unbiased and Jacksonianmarch.

 

Did Theo make an agreement with Arroyo that he wasn't going to trade him, and then trade him? If so then I agree. If he merely signed him to a longer deal and then dealt him then nobody would see that as bad faith, it's just business.

 

that is homerism to the extreme. Arroyo made it known that he would sign for less with Boston to stay in Boston. Theo took advantage of that then dealt him because his contract was easily dealable.

[Dipre]

that is homerism to the extreme. Arroyo made it known that he would sign for less with Boston to stay in Boston. Theo took advantage of that then dealt him because his contract was easily dealable.

 

I suggest you don't talk about homerism.

 

After all, Ian Kennedy was the second coming of Greg Maddux.

 

amirite?

[jacksonianmarch]

again Dipre, you skirt the issues. Instead of making a useful post you either post something that is completely off topic or you post a lolwut. Seriously, your posting quality has been inversely linked to your increased time on this site.

[Dipre]

again Dipre' date=' you skirt the issues. Instead of making a useful post you either post something that is completely off topic or you post a lolwut. Seriously, your posting quality has been inversely linked to your increased time on this site.[/quote']

 

I wouldn't have to if you weren't such a hypocrite.

 

Your post is a cop-out to the obvious issue created by you having the audacity to call anyone on this site a homer.

[jacksonianmarch]

Again, you skirt the issue with another insult. How about you stay on topic here. The topic was about Theo and good faith. I said that his dealings with Arroyo negate any good faith with players. Nobody has attacked that. Just that I am a homer, which I dont deny. Doesnt mean I cannot call someone out when they are being overly homeristic.

[Dipre]

Again' date=' you skirt the issue with another insult. How about you stay on topic here. The topic was about Theo and good faith. I said that his dealings with Arroyo negate any good faith with players. Nobody has attacked that. Just that I am a homer, which I dont deny. Doesnt mean I cannot call someone out when they are being overly homeristic.[/quote']

 

Baseball is a business.

 

If Nick Swisher took a "hometown discount" to stay with the Yankees and then Cashman traded him in a deal that would make the Yankees better, you wouldn't complain. This is common sense, and your point is asinine.

[jacksonianmarch]

If someone took a hometown discount to stay with NY, I would at least wait a season before I'd deal him. That ruins your credibility.

[Dipre]

If someone took a hometown discount to stay with NY' date=' I would at least wait a season before I'd deal him. That ruins your credibility.[/quote']

 

Until it happens in NY, then it's a "shrewd tactical move by Cashman".

[BSN07]

If someone took a hometown discount to stay with NY' date=' I would at least wait a season before I'd deal him. That ruins your credibility.[/quote']

 

The Yankees FO does not concern themselves with credibility.

 

 

The issue is a moot though, the "Yankees" and "Hometown discount" aren't exactly old lovers if you know what I mean.