Official 2009-2010 Hot Stove season thread

[Dojji]

If someone took a hometown discount to stay with NY' date=' I would at least wait a season before I'd deal him. That ruins your credibility.[/quote']

 

Sheffield.

[BSN07]

Diamondbacks pitcher Brandon Webb said this afternoon that, given the circumstances, it would be difficult to come up with a deal that makes sense for both him and the team. Webb, who is coming off August shoulder surgery in a season in which he threw just four innings, said he doesn't want to sign another one-year extension but rather hopes his next contract is a longer one -- and he hopes it's with the Diamondbacks. That's what he said he told General Manager Josh Byrnes and Assistant GM Peter Woodfork in a meeting on Wednesday. "I told them I want to be here," he said. "I want to be here beyond next year, too." But he says a long-term deal isn't feasible at the moment.

 

Is he becomes available is he worth trading for? Or if he's a FA, is he worth a multi year deal?

[bsox0407]

Is he becomes available is he worth trading for? Or if he's a FA' date=' is he worth a multi year deal?[/quote']

 

For Webb i would take the risk only if he becomes a free agent. if he would have to be traded for the d'backs would try to get to much for what he is worth. would rather have haren.

[a700hitter]

Is he becomes available is he worth trading for? Or if he's a FA' date=' is he worth a multi year deal?[/quote']Multi-year deal for a guy coming off shoulder surgery. He could spend most of the next two seasons on the DL and never return to his former level of effectiveness. Go after healthy arms-- king Felix or John Lackey. It's interesting that there is little discussion about Roy Halladay who the Blue Jays are likely to move this off season. Teams will not offer as much for him now as they would have last July.

[bsox0407]

Multi-year deal for a guy coming off shoulder surgery. He could spend most of the next two seasons on the DL and never return to his former level of effectiveness. Go after healthy arms-- king Felix or John Lackey. It's interesting that there is little discussion about Roy Halladay who the Blue Jays are likely to move this off season. Teams will not offer as much for him now as they would have last July.

 

he is 32 and will prolly only get moved during the season.

[example1]

Multi-year deal for a guy coming off shoulder surgery. He could spend most of the next two seasons on the DL and never return to his former level of effectiveness. Go after healthy arms-- king Felix or John Lackey. It's interesting that there is little discussion about Roy Halladay who the Blue Jays are likely to move this off season. Teams will not offer as much for him now as they would have last July.

 

I brought up Halladay somewhere in the past few days. I could see them pursuing him over a guy like Lackey, as his money would be off the books next year with lots and lots of other guys, he's a better pitcher than Lackey and he would give them a good shot to win in 2010, their last go-round with guys like Ortiz, Lowell and maybe Beckett. It makes sense to me, though not for Buchholz, Kelly or Westmoreland (IMO).

[Dojji]

I would only go after Halladay if he wanted to sign a bigtime extension with Boston, especially if large number of prospects are going to Toronto.

 

the concept of Halladay playing for the Yankees while Kelly and Westmoreland kill us in Toronto is unbearable.

 

Even if we don't deal bigtime prospects, I can't think of too many FA's in the coming offseason that are going to better than Halladay, so why not strike while the iron is hot and secure Beckett's replacement before we even lose Beckett?

[Gom]

I think it's really funny that you guys think you'll get Felix.

 

Why on earth would the Mariners would trade him? He's very young, and already a dominant pitcher. Felix is the kind of player that the Mariners would build around. I find it nearly impossible that the Mariners would trade him, they were probably just bored and let Theo run around. If I was the Mariners GM I wouldn't trade him for anyone in baseball.

 

Now...Halladay...that's a completely different story.

[example1]

I think it's really funny that you guys think you'll get Felix.

 

Why on earth would the Mariners would trade him? He's very young, and already a dominant pitcher. Felix is the kind of player that the Mariners would build around. I find it nearly impossible that the Mariners would trade him, they were probably just bored and let Theo run around. If I was the Mariners GM I wouldn't trade him for anyone in baseball.

 

Now...Halladay...that's a completely different story.

 

 

The answer is that the player and the team, unable to reach agreement about contract, split ways and the team that deals him early gets a huge return. 5-6 prospects including Buchholz is a huge, franchise-shifting move. 5-6 prospects including Dice-K is a huge return. I haven't heard any mention that Felix is willing to take a discount to stay in Seattle, or even that he's very interested in signing a longterm deal to stay with the team that isn't super competitive.

 

Securing Felix for 8 years/$160million would be a nice move for Seattle, they would have their pitcher long term, but there would be a ton of risk and even if he's Felix, he's still only good for 6-10 WAR depending on the (very good) season. Seattle can't afford to have $20m wrapped up in that many years of an injured pitcher. Boston could, at least a little bit better.

 

I think it is similar to the Papelbon situation. Papelbon wants the money he would get in a FA spending spree. The Sox, it appears, aren't going to pay him FA money to close for them, even if he is really good.

 

I'm sensing--from Theo's comments about Felix being the one guy he would start a franchise with--that he would be willing to pay big money (i.e., Teixeira money) to secure Felix longterm and to get him. I'm also assuming that Theo is smart enough to not spend lots of time on a deal that has no way of ever coming about, and that when he says they were "close" to some big deals involving lots of prospects, he means it. He doesn't tend to misspeak.

[ORS]

Again' date=' you skirt the issue with another insult. How about you stay on topic here. The topic was about Theo and good faith. I said that his dealings with Arroyo negate any good faith with players. Nobody has attacked that. Just that I am a homer, which I dont deny. Doesnt mean I cannot call someone out when they are being overly homeristic.[/quote']

I'll attack it. The extension of Ortiz was below what his market value would have earned him had he become a FA in 2007. The FA years they bought out from Lester, Pedroia, and Youkilis are below what they'd get paid if they went to market. I realize those players are trading off some potential future money for a guaranteed contract in the present, but players don't do that if they don't like where they are. So, the "hometown" allure played a role.

 

I have a serious question for you. How the f*** do you live with yourself? You come here attempt to negate any positive thought, idea, or feeling about the Red Sox by their fans. WTF is up with that? How do you get pleasure out attempting to ruin other people's good time? It would be one thing if you demonstrated the slightest bit of an ability to be consistent with your thought process, but you apply double standard after double standard after double standard in every possible subject matter relating to the running of a baseball team. Then I could concede that you were only interested in talking about the game, and I would find no issue with some of your points for or against certain transactions, but your posting is pathological.

[a700hitter]

I brought up Halladay somewhere in the past few days. I could see them pursuing him over a guy like Lackey' date=' as his money would be off the books next year with lots and lots of other guys, he's a better pitcher than Lackey and he would give them a good shot to win in 2010, their last go-round with guys like Ortiz, Lowell and maybe Beckett. It makes sense to me, though not for Buchholz, Kelly or Westmoreland (IMO).[/quote']100% agreement. I await your response clarifying why we don't completely agree.

[Dipre]

I'll attack it. The extension of Ortiz was below what his market value would have earned him had he become a FA in 2007. The FA years they bought out from Lester, Pedroia, and Youkilis are below what they'd get paid if they went to market. I realize those players are trading off some potential future money for a guaranteed contract in the present, but players don't do that if they don't like where they are. So, the "hometown" allure played a role.

 

I have a serious question for you. How the f*** do you live with yourself? You come here attempt to negate any positive thought, idea, or feeling about the Red Sox by their fans. WTF is up with that? How do you get pleasure out attempting to ruin other people's good time? It would be one thing if you demonstrated the slightest bit of an ability to be consistent with your thought process, but you apply double standard after double standard after double standard in every possible subject matter relating to the running of a baseball team. Then I could concede that you were only interested in talking about the game, and I would find no issue with some of your points for or against certain transactions, but your posting is pathological.

 

Seriously, ORS, this post makes me think your posting quality is really taking a dip, i mean, you're shying away from the subject, which is not Jacko's double standard and continued attempts at ruining the entertainment value of this board for everyone else, even some Yankee fans like Y228, who have something to add to the forum except anti-Sox sentiment, really man, you need to re-focus your POV. /endrant //endsarcasm

[bsox0407]

The answer is that the player and the team, unable to reach agreement about contract, split ways and the team that deals him early gets a huge return. 5-6 prospects including Buchholz is a huge, franchise-shifting move. 5-6 prospects including Dice-K is a huge return. I haven't heard any mention that Felix is willing to take a discount to stay in Seattle, or even that he's very interested in signing a longterm deal to stay with the team that isn't super competitive.

 

Securing Felix for 8 years/$160million would be a nice move for Seattle, they would have their pitcher long term, but there would be a ton of risk and even if he's Felix, he's still only good for 6-10 WAR depending on the (very good) season. Seattle can't afford to have $20m wrapped up in that many years of an injured pitcher. Boston could, at least a little bit better.

 

I think it is similar to the Papelbon situation. Papelbon wants the money he would get in a FA spending spree. The Sox, it appears, aren't going to pay him FA money to close for them, even if he is really good.

 

I'm sensing--from Theo's comments about Felix being the one guy he would start a franchise with--that he would be willing to pay big money (i.e., Teixeira money) to secure Felix longterm and to get him. I'm also assuming that Theo is smart enough to not spend lots of time on a deal that has no way of ever coming about, and that when he says they were "close" to some big deals involving lots of prospects, he means it. He doesn't tend to misspeak.

 

i agree that theo wouldn't waste valuable time going after nothing. Felix wants to win more than anything.

[example1]

i agree that theo wouldn't waste valuable time going after nothing. Felix wants to win more than anything.

 

I'm not sure I know this one way or the other. I assume that, like most players, he wants $$ first and to play for a competitive team a close second.

 

Given the choice, I'm betting he would take the $

[bsox0407]

I'm not sure I know this one way or the other. I assume that, like most players, he wants $$ first and to play for a competitive team a close second.

 

Given the choice, I'm betting he would take the $

 

i would rather take a little less money to play for a every year competitor like the Sox rather than the most money on a team you need to cross your fingers to have a chance to make the playoffs like the Mariners.

[Dojji]

The Mariners were an 85 win team this year.

 

It's not unfathomable that they put together a good offseason and find a way back into contention.

[bsox0407]

The Mariners were an 85 win team this year.

 

It's not unfathomable that they put together a good offseason and find a way back into contention.

 

they would need to spend some money. Plus they would have only a few years left with Ichiro being that he is 35.

[bsox0407]

also if we swim them with top prospects from the pitching side and the rf position. we could still have a high chance with felix. plus they have a lot of money to use with beltre in the FA.

[Dojji]

I'm sorry, were you going somewhere with that?

 

You said they'd have to spend a lot of money then pointed out that they had it to spend.

 

You also said that they had a limited window with Ichiro. If that's true, that's a reason to either contend now or trade Ichiro.

 

I could go for eating some salary to facilitate a trade of Mike Lowell for Mark Lowe. Expendable elements from both teams changing hands to fill a stated need on the other.

 

And then sign a midmarket power hitter to replace Lowell's production because there's a difference between "expendable" and "we can totally live just fine without the guy."

[bsox0407]

I'm sorry, were you going somewhere with that?

 

You said they'd have to spend a lot of money then pointed out that they had it to spend.

 

You also said that they had a limited window with Ichiro. If that's true, that's a reason to either contend now or trade Ichiro.

 

I could go for eating some salary to facilitate a trade of Mike Lowell for Mark Lowe. Expendable elements from both teams changing hands to fill a stated need on the other.

 

And then sign a midmarket power hitter to replace Lowell's production because there's a difference between "expendable" and "we can totally live just fine without the guy."

 

i was saying that they would prolly use the money they have and they wont be afraid to use it. but if the sox give enough they can get Felix.

[Dipre]

i was saying that they would prolly use the money they have and they wont be afraid to use it. but if the sox give enough they can get Felix.

 

My good sir.

 

What are you talking about?

[Dojji]

I actually like the idea of swapping outLowell and going after Adam LaRoche BTW. I don't think you'd have to sign the guy for that many years, and he produces at at least the Kevin Millar level. You can win with him.

 

And with Lowell as bad defensively as he was, even LaRoche's average to creeping slightly below average numbers do represent an infield upgrade.

 

That idea becomes ridiculous the momsnt it's actually clear that a trade for Adrian Golzalez is a real possibility and not an impossible fan dream . Practically speaking, though, a slight upgrade to a younger player with similar numbers and a longer deal makes sense and Youks provides enough insurance to allow the team to take the risk.

 

A lot of the midmarket teams are going after LaRoche though, anyone who needs a bit of extra power and has 1B or DH open are likely to express interest, so the price might be higher than you want to pay for his production level.

[Dipre]

I actually like the idea of swapping outLowell and going after Adam LaRoche BTW. I don't think you'd have to sign the guy for that many years, and he produces at at least the Kevin Millar level.

 

And with Lowell as bad defensively as he was, even LaRoche's average to creeping slightly below average numbers do represent an infield upgrade.

 

That idea becomes ridiculous the momsnt it's actually clear that a trade for Adrian Golzalez is a real possibility and not an impossible fan dream . Practically speaking, though, a slight upgrade to a younger player with similar numbers and a longer deal makes sense and Youks provides enough insurance to allow the team to take the risk.

 

A lot of the midmarket teams are going after LaRoche though, anyone who needs a bit of extra power and has 1B or DH open are likely to express interest, so the price might be higher than you want to pay for his production level.

 

Again, Adam Laroche is probably not even as good a hitter as Lowell, and represents not much of an upgrade defensively, plus the team would have to eat a massive amount of Lowell's salary to move him, couple that with the investment to sign LaRoche and it makes no sense.

 

[bsox0407]

My good sir.

 

What are you talking about?

 

beltre's contract was huge and they will go after pitching and better hitting. they want to be good. if the Red Sox give them enough prospects that could be ready to be on the roster in 2010 for a team that needs help, aka Mariners, the mariners could trade for them.

 

say that they could get three mlb ready prospects that could help them enough they could go for a trade.

 

its prolly not what will happen in the trade wise but it is what i am hoping.

[Dipre]

beltre's contract was huge and they will go after pitching and better hitting. they want to be good. if the Red Sox give them enough prospects that could be ready to be on the roster in 2010 for a team that needs help, aka Mariners, the mariners could trade for them.

 

say that they could get three mlb ready prospects that could help them enough they could go for a trade.

 

its prolly not what will happen in the trade wise but it is what i am hoping.

 

It's not going to happen because we probably don't have three mlb-ready prospects that could have enough of an impact to justify moving Felix to become "contenders".

 

If they were to trade Felix, they'd trade him for a package of prospects that would make them better in a more distant future. That's the reason why i think Felix simply doesn't make sense. Why would the Mariners trade him? A couple offseason additions, a couple breaks, and a couple Angels injuries, and that team's in the playoffs.

[Dojji]

Again' date=' Adam Laroche is probably not even as good a hitter as Lowell, [/quote']

 

He's been better by OPS and OBP each of the last 2 years. Only Lowell's career year in 2007 prevents it from being 5 straight years.

 

and represents not much of an upgrade defensively,

 

Calculate the upgrade in of replacing Lowell's -13 UZR/150 last year with Kevin Youkilis' career +7, and an defensively average first baseman comes out to a net positive.

 

plus the team would have to eat a massive amount of Lowell's salary to move him, couple that with the investment to sign LaRoche and it makes no sense.

 

 

They'd only be eating a year's worth of money, and that's only if Lowell's remaining value is lower than I think it is.

 

Unless they think Tuiasosopo is ready right NOW, which is pretty doubtful, the Mariners are close enough to have need of a rent-a-player. And they have a hole at DH* anyway. If whatsisname, Bavasi, was still GM I'd call it a slam dunk. We don't know the new guy's style yet, maybe he'll want more OBP than Lowell can give.

 

 

* LOL that originally read "a hole at GM." That they used to have. Bavasi was apparently a grade A hole. But that's not what I meant.

[example1]

It's not going to happen because we probably don't have three mlb-ready prospects that could have enough of an impact to justify moving Felix to become "contenders".

 

If they were to trade Felix, they'd trade him for a package of prospects that would make them better in a more distant future. That's the reason why i think Felix simply doesn't make sense. Why would the Mariners trade him? A couple offseason additions, a couple breaks, and a couple Angels injuries, and that team's in the playoffs.

 

As long as the Rangers also have injuries and don't make off-season acquisitions.

 

It seems to me that the Rangers would have good reason to go after John Lackey who would take his WAR and move them to TEX an dprovide some stability at the top end of that good rotation.

 

The Mariners overplayed their X W-L by TEN GAMES this year. They have some good players but they've made some bad moves the past few years that set them back further than their slightly-over .500 finish and previous mediocrity might indicate.

 

They're not really a young team just waiting for their core to gel. They need to get that core first.

[Dipre]

As long as the Rangers also have injuries and don't make off-season acquisitions.

 

It seems to me that the Rangers would have good reason to go after John Lackey who would take his WAR and move them to TEX an dprovide some stability at the top end of that good rotation.

 

The Mariners overplayed their X W-L by TEN GAMES this year. They have some good players but they've made some bad moves the past few years that set them back further than their slightly-over .500 finish and previous mediocrity might indicate.

 

They're not really a young team just waiting for their core to gel. They need to get that core first.

 

However, would you not agree that it's logical to agree the Mariners brass might also be along the line of thinking i provided?

[Dipre]

He's been better by OPS and OBP each of the last 2 years. Only Lowell's career year in 2007 prevents it from being 5 straight years.

 

I think you also have to take into account the lefty+ Fenway factor, swapping Lowell for LaRoche is not only a semi-lateral move, but a waste of money.

 

Calculate the upgrade in of replacing Lowell's -13 UZR/150 last year with Kevin Youkilis' career +7, and an defensively average first baseman comes out to a net positive.

 

You also need to calculate the fact that Lowell displayed increase mobility towards the end of the year, the difference in defense might not be so drastic next year.

 

They'd only be eating a year's worth of money, and that's only if Lowell's remaining value is lower than I think it is.

 

But "eating that money" decreases financial flexibility on the accounts of a lateral move. It makes no sense.

 

Unless they think Tuiasosopo is ready right NOW, which is pretty doubtful, the Mariners are close enough to have need of a rent-a-player. And they have a hole at DH* anyway. If whatsisname, Bavasi, was still GM I'd call it a slam dunk. We don't know the new guy's style yet, maybe he'll want more OBP than Lowell can give.

 

The Mariners can fill the couple holes they have without acquiring a hitter ill-suited to play in their stadium. Because remember, the deal has to make sense for the other team as well, because the other 29 teams in MLB are not feeding tubes for the Sox k?

 

* LOL that originally read "a hole at GM." That they used to have. Bavasi was apparently a grade A hole. But that's not what I meant.

 

Jack Zduriencik.

[bsox0407]

As long as the Rangers also have injuries and don't make off-season acquisitions.

 

It seems to me that the Rangers would have good reason to go after John Lackey who would take his WAR and move them to TEX an dprovide some stability at the top end of that good rotation.

 

The Mariners overplayed their X W-L by TEN GAMES this year. They have some good players but they've made some bad moves the past few years that set them back further than their slightly-over .500 finish and previous mediocrity might indicate.

 

They're not really a young team just waiting for their core to gel. They need to get that core first.

 

i think the mariners are still not going to be a top playoff team. the angels and the rangers will get equally better and decrease the chances for the mariners to have a shot.