Official 2009-2010 Hot Stove season thread

[Dipre]

i think the mariners are still not going to be a top playoff team. the angels and the rangers will get equally better and decrease the chances for the mariners to have a shot.

 

Explain this.

 

Even the Japanese know the Mariners are not atop the list of playoff teams. However, the fact that they could be one with a couple things going their way might be an enormous detriment towards moving Felix. I don't care if they make or don't make the playoffs, and probably neither do any of you, but to reach a plausible scenario where the Sox can acquire Felix, the fact that they may view themselves as contender needs to be taken into account.

[bsox0407]

Explain this.

 

Even the Japanese know the Mariners are not atop the list of playoff teams. However, the fact that they could be one with a couple things going their way might be an enormous detriment towards moving Felix. I don't care if they make or don't make the playoffs, and probably neither do any of you, but to reach a plausible scenario where the Sox can acquire Felix, the fact that they may view themselves as contender needs to be taken into account.

 

i was talking about whether or not the mariners are going to make the playoffs not making the trade at this point. they prolly will feel they are a contender but i don't think they will be in the end.

[example1]

However' date=' would you not agree that it's logical to agree the Mariners brass might also be along the line of thinking i provided?[/quote']

 

I think what we can agree on is that the Sox would really need to blow Seattle away with an offer. Bowden and Reddick are both ready to start contributing at the MLB level. So are Tazawa and Richardson. Casey Kelly is another guy that other teams didn't necessarily see as a SP, the Sox did, and so far the results have been amazing (similar situation to Buchholz). I think there's reason to think the Sox, if they really, really, really wanted Felix, could get him.

 

The M's will likely hope to build themselves around Dustin Ackley (#2 overall pick in 09) in the next few years and would love to have other good similarly-aged players to build around him with. If they had Ackley, Reddick, Kelly, Anderson, Bowden, etc., on their team I think they would look really good in a few years.

[Dipre]

i was talking about whether or not the mariners are going to make the playoffs not making the trade at this point. they prolly will feel they are a contender but i don't think they will be in the end.

 

That's exactly my point. Not many people will view them as contenders either, but they will most likely view themselves as contenders, and that's a pretty big roadblock towards trading Felix.

[Dojji]

I think you also have to take into account the lefty+ Fenway factor' date='[/quote']

 

Which isn't that big. Which lefty hitters have we brought in in recent seasons that have experienced a real loss of power? I honestly can't think of one. Hinske maybe.

 

swapping Lowell for LaRoche is not only a semi-lateral move, but a waste of money.

 

Marginal gains, Dipre?

 

I'll take a lateral move that takes a player with an expiring contract with a similar player signed several years into the future. There's value in that.

 

You also need to calculate the fact that Lowell displayed increase mobility towards the end of the year, the difference in defense might not be so drastic next year.

 

Which is one of the reasons I think he might have some trade value.

 

But "eating that money" decreases financial flexibility on the accounts of a lateral move. It makes no sense.

 

Only if you look at it solely from the perspective of 2010. It makes a lot more sense in 2011.

 

Course I'm gonna get some grief for the fact that LaRoche would block Anderson, who I was in love with during the whole Teixeira debate. Just to head that off let me throw this out there. Times change, and Anderson sure changed with them. If a guy isn't allowed to change his mind in light of new evidence, like say Anderson's total suckfest in 2009, then you've basically outlawed thought.

 

I still think Anderson's going to be in the bigs sooner than later, but all that power potential is still potential and everything else he had going for him befkre is reduced or gone, so counting on him as a critical piece of the franchise may be unwise.

 

Now, did I or anyone else have any reason to think he was going to do this to us in the 2008 offseason? No. There was no way of knowing or predicting what was going to happen this year with Anderson. But someone's going to call me on it anyway and I wanted to make my position clear for when it happened.

 

The Mariners can fill the couple holes they have without acquiring a hitter ill-suited to play in their stadium. Because remember, the deal has to make sense for the other team as well, because the other 29 teams in MLB are not feeding tubes for the Sox k?

 

It only makes sense if they think they're contenders, which as you said is a plausible scenario. In that case a line drive hitting 3B fits the kind of player the Mariners have liked in recent years.

 

Jack Zduriencik.

 

I know that dude, it was a typo.

[example1]

Explain this.

 

Even the Japanese know the Mariners are not atop the list of playoff teams. However, the fact that they could be one with a couple things going their way might be an enormous detriment towards moving Felix. I don't care if they make or don't make the playoffs, and probably neither do any of you, but to reach a plausible scenario where the Sox can acquire Felix, the fact that they may view themselves as contender needs to be taken into account.

 

I live in Portland, Oregon. We kind of share a media market with Seattle... the M's are our 'local' team. People here don't believe they are right on the verge of being a contender. The Angels are a very, very good team. The Rangers put up a good season and have a pitching staff many others would desire, prospects to add, plus Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, Elvis Andrus, etc.,

[bsox0407]

That's exactly my point. Not many people will view them as contenders either' date=' but they will most likely view themselves as contenders, and that's a pretty big roadblock towards trading Felix.[/quote']

 

some players in free agency may also think about this when considering whether or not to play for them instead of going to other teams who are more known to be a playoff contender.

[bsox0407]

I live in Portland' date=' Oregon. We kind of share a media market with Seattle... the M's are our 'local' team. People here don't believe they are right on the verge of being a contender. The Angels are a very, very good team. The Rangers put up a good season and have a pitching staff many others would desire, prospects to add, plus Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, Elvis Andrus, etc.,[/quote']

 

portland is a beautiful place. my brother lives out there. through past years the team have not been a great team so i think that the fans are a tad hesitant to call them one.

[Dipre]

Which isn't that big. Which lefty hitters have we brought in in recent seasons that have experienced a real loss of power? I honestly can't think of one. Hinske maybe.

 

Yeah but do you really want to find out with a dead-pull hitter like LaRoche?

 

 

Marginal gains, Dipre?

 

I'll take a lateral move that takes a player with an expiring contract with a similar player signed several years into the future. There's value in that.

 

You're actually thinking of making LaRoche the team's 1B for the foreseeable future?

 

Wow.

 

Which is one of the reasons I think he might have some trade value.

 

Even if Lowell does have trade value, money must be included in any deal.

 

Only if you look at it solely from the perspective of 2010. It makes a lot more sense in 2011.

 

No it doesn't. Why have a roughly average 1B when after next year (and without dumping Lowell and wasting resources), we could acquire a better option than LaRoche. Face it, he's simply not very good.

 

Course I'm gonna get some grief for the fact that LaRoche would block Anderson, who I was in love with during the whole Teixeira debate. Just to head that off let me throw this out there. Times change, and Anderson sure changed with them. If a guy isn't allowed to change his mind in light of new evidence, like say Anderson's total suckfest in 2009, then you've basically outlawed thought.

 

I still think Anderson's going to be in the bigs sooner than later, but all that power potential is still potential and everything else he had going for him befkre is reduced or gone, so counting on him as a critical piece of the franchise may be unwise.

 

Now, did I or anyone else have any reason to think he was going to do this to us in the 2008 offseason? No. There was no way of knowing or predicting what was going to happen this year with Anderson. But someone's going to call me on it anyway and I wanted to make my position clear for when it happened.

 

Anderson has no bearing in this discussion. The fact that LaRoche is about average value for the position does.

 

It only makes sense if they think they're contenders, which as you said is a plausible scenario. In that case a line drive hitting 3B fits the kind of player the Mariners have liked in recent years.

 

Yes, a line drive hitting 3B with health issues is just the kind of player they want to acquire. Pretty sure they're drooling all over him.

 

 

 

I know that dude, it was a typo.

 

Ok

[Dipre]

some players in free agency may also think about this when considering whether or not to play for them instead of going to other teams who are more known to be a playoff contender.

 

Money first, contending second.

[Dipre]

I live in Portland' date=' Oregon. We kind of share a media market with Seattle... the M's are our 'local' team. People here don't believe they are right on the verge of being a contender. The Angels are a very, very good team. The Rangers put up a good season and have a pitching staff many others would desire, prospects to add, plus Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, Elvis Andrus, etc.,[/quote']

 

People don't, but what about the actual FO of the team?

[bsox0407]

Money first' date=' contending second.[/quote']

 

i would take a paycut to win because you would get money for being in the playoffs. also some players go for where the schools are the best.

[Dipre]

i would take a paycut to win because you would get money for being in the playoffs. also some players go for where the schools are the best.

 

You sure you would?

 

Pretty sure just about everyone would take the money and run.

 

And usually the best schools are the expensive ones.

[Dojji]

Money first' date=' contending second.[/quote']

 

There's some specifics that change the math, though. Sometimes an older player who hasn't won anything will sign with a contender by preference to have his shot at a ring.

[Dipre]

There's some specifics that change the math' date=' though. [b']Sometimes [/b]an older player who hasn't won anything will sign with a contender by preference to have his shot at a ring.

 

Exception to the rule. It does apply, but i'm talking about the rule, not the exception in this case.

[bsox0407]

Exception to the rule. It does apply' date=' but i'm talking about the rule, not the exception in this case.[/b']

 

we were talking about some players in the FA market. alot who are over 30.

[bsox0407]

we were talking about some players in the FA market. alot who are over 30.

 

14 out of all the players in FA are under 30 and only one under 23. others have been in the majors long enough where money isn't as big of a deal as it once was in their career.

[Dipre]

14 out of all the players in FA are under 30 and only one under 23. others have been in the majors long enough where money isn't as big of a deal as it once was in their career.

 

This makes no sense.

 

The only stage of a players' career where money doesn't matter as much is the "desperate to win a ring" stage, which happens a hell of a lot later than 30.

[bsox0407]

This makes no sense.

 

The only stage of a players' career where money doesn't matter as much is the "desperate to win a ring" stage, which happens a hell of a lot later than 30.

 

are you saying that players players only care about money until they get old.

[Dipre]

are you saying that players players only care about money until they get old.

 

For the most part, yes, that's exactly what i'm saying.

 

There are exceptions, but they're exactly that. Exceptions.

[bsox0407]

For the most part, yes, that's exactly what i'm saying.

 

There are exceptions, but they're exactly that. Exceptions.

 

exactly. if you were 25 you would think about money but when you get to 30 you lean a little more towards to winning than money.

 

look at halladay. 32. do you think he would rather get out of Toronto and win or take a lot of money to stay.

[Dipre]

exactly. if you were 25 you would think about money but when you get to 30 you lean a little more towards to winning than money.

 

look at halladay. 32. do you think he would rather get out of Toronto and win or take a lot of money to stay.

 

He'd take a lot of money wherever it was offered.

[bsox0407]

He'd take a lot of money wherever it was offered.

 

you really think so? halladay an allstar pitcher who could get a near 150 million dollar contract would definitely take a some thought of going over a loser. finishing fourth or third every year in your division every year leaves a horrible taste in his mouth.

[Dipre]

you really think so? halladay an allstar pitcher who could get a near 150 million dollar contract would definitely take a some thought of going over a loser. finishing fourth or third every year in your division every year leaves a horrible taste in his mouth.

 

Usually yes, but making a shitload of money sure acts as citric-flavored mouthwash.

[a700hitter]

Usually yes' date=' but making a shitload of money sure acts as citric-flavored mouthwash.[/quote']Toronto doesn't have the money for him and they don't have the players to win. There's no reason to believe they can keep him.

[bsox0407]

Usually yes' date=' but making a shitload of money sure acts as citric-flavored mouthwash.[/quote']

 

citric tastes like s***. lol. i think that both are major contributors in getting a contract. but if stradsburg had a chance to get a little less money to play with a contender do you think he would take it. say instead of getting 20 a year he gets 19 a year.

[Dipre]

Toronto doesn't have the money for him and they don't have the players to win. There's no reason to believe they can keep him.

 

We're talking in a hypothetical scenario, Clint.

[ORS]

Which (please allow me to pull something directly from my ass)isn't that big.

It is. Fenway's RF supresses power. Someone at bbtf calculated park factors by field a couple of years ago, and from CF to the Pesky Pole, Fenway has about a .75 HR factor. It's hell on lefties who pull the ball.

[Dipre]

It is. Fenway's RF supresses power. Someone at bbtf calculated park factors by field a couple of years ago' date=' and from CF to the Pesky Pole, Fenway has about a .75 HR factor. [b'] It's hell on lefties who pull the ball.[/b]

 

Adam LaRoche?

 

And that's exactly what i'm talking about. I actually found out that time we had an argument about Shea Vs. Fenway. It's so easy to learn new stuff from you old-timers.

[Dojji]

It is. Fenway's RF supresses power. Someone at bbtf calculated park factors by field a couple of years ago' date=' and from CF to the Pesky Pole, Fenway has about a .75 HR factor. It's hell on lefties who pull the ball.[/quote']

 

OK, so let's ask the question again. Which lefties that we brought here clearly had their HR go down? Quite honestly the only guy I can think of is Eric Hinske.