Official 2009-2010 Hot Stove season thread

[Dipre]

For the most part...

 

You know what i meant, smart-ass.

[example1]

Let me dumb it down for you just a bit. A good 4th OFer is all dependent on what you have for your OFers #1-3. If the sox nab a guy like Crawford for LF' date=' then you are probably going to want a 4th OFer with more power than slap hitting ability. If you get a guy like Bay, then a speed guy might be in order. [/quote']

 

Do you really think Crawford will be available? It seems more likely that the Rays will want to control where he goes and pick up the option and trade him.

 

Also, if he does become available, how do you think he would look in LF for the Yankees? It seems to me that he would be a great fit in NY as they will be losing Damon and Jeter is getting older. Would the Yankees prefer to have a defensively solid tablesetter instead of Bay or Holliday?

 

You need to complement your team appropriately with your bench. If your backup is the same kind of player as the guy he's replacing except not as good, then there is absolutely no advantage to having them in the lineup. Its all well and good to get a 4th OFer type player, but there are TONS of those available at all times of the yr. A good GM complements his team with a bench that offers you something a little different.

 

I think Rocco Baldelli fits this profile pretty well, when he's healthy.

[example1]

I remember how it felt. But I wasnt opining about the 4th OFer. I was pining for Tex' date=' AJ, and CC[/quote']

 

And Manny, Cameron, Sheets, Lowe...

 

People have been talking about Lackey, Gonzalez, etc. since the Sox were eliminated, so it's not like the night after Game 3 we were all losing sleep over who the 4th outfielder is.

 

Exactly. I could certainly talk more about the Sox trying to get Felix Hernandez or Adrian Gonzalez. Believe me, it's coming.

[Dojji]

All of these are fair points.

 

His splits as a RHH weren't very good last year either.

 

I like him as a veteran who has actually started (Kapler is a career backup). I like his ability to stay healthy. I like his speed and athleticism (20 SB/162, vs. 8 for Kapler). I also liked his ability to play 3 OF positions, though I hadn't looked to notice that Kapler also played 3 positions at roughly the same level as Winn did this season.

 

Again, I think Winn is like an older Coco Crisp. Kapler is an older Kapler.

 

Given that I care very little about either of these players, it will be interesting to see which gets paid more and which gets pursued more aggressively as a FA. For some reason Winn has been a career starter and Kapler a career 4th OF.

 

I just don't want any part of a declining older player who stands a very good chance of simply disappearing entirely. It strikes me that Winn is much more likely to become completely useless than Kapler. The downside of Winn is lower than Kapler's downside in other words IMHO. Especially with very legitimate decline concerns.

 

(one of the reasons you can get a low BABIP is if you stop hitting the ball as hard. that's likely a big part of Winn's troubles last year and I doubt that goes away at age 36)

[Dojji]

Oh?

 

Because our 4th OF is going to be our regular LF? News to me.

 

Just had to comment on this prize piece of lunacy.

 

Did you even stop to think, just for a moment, Dipre, that this might actually be the case if we sustain exactly one injury at the wrong place and time?

 

I'm certainly not going to trust a guy who's going to have a chance of being our starting RF for a 15 game stretch sometime over the course of the season who put up a season OPS of less than .700 the previous year. That way lies madness. At least with Kapler you could call up another LHH corner outfielder -- say Reddick -- and continue to platoon.

[example1]

I just don't want any part of a declining older player who stands a very good chance of simply disappearing entirely. It strikes me that Winn is much more likely to become completely useless than Kapler.

 

Player A: (WAR History)

[table] 2003 | 2.3

2004 | 2.1

2006 | 3.6

2007 | -0.3

2008 | 0.3

2009 | 0.1 [/table]

 

Player B: (WAR History)

[table] 2004 | 3.6

2005 | 4.2

2006 | 1.4

2007 | 2.7

2008 | 4.5

2009 | 1.8 [/table]

 

One of these guys is Rocco Baldelli, the other is Randy Winn.

 

Look man, it isn't really worth arguing this too strongly. Neither of us really want Randy Winn on this team, but I think he's got a higher upside than you're giving him credit for. I hadn't really noted it until I looked at his numbers for awhile the other night. The main benefit to him would be if he could be acquired on a one year deal with incentives or something.

 

I would also be pretty comfortable with Reddick getting a good chunk of time this year. That's the only way he'll get comfortable.

 

The downside of Winn is lower than Kapler's downside in other words IMHO. Especially with very legitimate decline concerns.

 

His speed didn't slide. His defense was still pretty good. The decline may affect his reactions or eyesight, or that could just be a statistical blip between a fairly wide range of possible performances.

 

I think the best argument against it is that he's probably going to want more than one year, and his reverse splits in 2009 were pretty bad--he hit poorly against LH pitchers. Unfortunately, they probably need someone who can hit lefties better, not worse.

 

(one of the reasons you can get a low BABIP is if you stop hitting the ball as hard. that's likely a big part of Winn's troubles last year and I doubt that goes away at age 36)

 

LD% was roughly the same as his decent 2008. A lot of his numbers were roughly the same.

 

 

Does anyone know if there is a place that measures ball velocity off the bat? By which I mean the average velocity off of various hitters' bats over the course of a season? I would be interested in seeing who happens to hit the ball the hardest, and then how strongly hitting the ball hard correlates with other numbers.

[Mr Crunchy]

Isnt Kapler running a Kibbutz somewhere outside of Khan Yunis?

Christ I hate that guy, he sucks and pretty much always sucked.

[Dipre]

Just had to comment on this prize piece of lunacy.

 

Did you even stop to think, just for a moment, Dipre, that this might actually be the case if we sustain exactly one injury at the wrong place and time?

 

I'm certainly not going to trust a guy who's going to have a chance of being our starting RF for a 15 game stretch sometime over the course of the season who put up a season OPS of less than .700 the previous year. That way lies madness. At least with Kapler you could call up another LHH corner outfielder -- say Reddick -- and continue to platoon.

 

You now, kid, you're not very smart.

 

Randy Winn has been a starter for all of his career who's played in two of the worst hitter's ballparks in history.

 

Now, if you did a little research instead of making your typical smug comments, you'd realize that not only did Winn have a BABIP under. 200 from the right side, but he also had a .760 OPS away from home.

 

I don't WANT to call you an idiot, but i will, because you're advocating for Gabe f***ing Kapler for the backup role. And i'm begging you, BEGGING you, argue with numbers, and stop making s*** up. Thanks.

[Dipre]

 

His speed didn't slide. His defense was still pretty good. The decline may affect his reactions or eyesight, or that could just be a statistical blip between a fairly wide range of possible performances.

 

This. LD%, GB%, FB%, all around career numbers, and the only thing that was out of career lines was that horrible BABIP against lefties, which screams fluke.

 

Anyone who does research instead of pulling stuff out of their ass would have realized this.

 

I think the best argument against it is that he's probably going to want more than one year, and his reverse splits in 2009 were pretty bad--he hit poorly against LH pitchers. Unfortunately, they probably need someone who can hit lefties better, not worse.

 

This is how you make an argument.

 

LD% was roughly the same as his decent 2008. A lot of his numbers were roughly the same.

 

Which, as stated earlier, screams fluke, add the stadium and the pathetic Giants offense, and it'd surely be lunacy to think the guy could rebound.

 

Raul Ibanez sure disappeared from the map when they took him out his hellhole from Seattle and inserted him into Phily amirite?.

 

Dunno about you, but i'd be much more comfy with the guy who's been a starter most of his career putting up decent numbers in big sample sizes than a platoon-only player.

 

Just a thought.

[Dojji]

Player A: (WAR History)

[table] 2003 | 2.3

2004 | 2.1

2006 | 3.6

2007 | -0.3

2008 | 0.3

2009 | 0.1 [/table]

 

Player B: (WAR History)

[table] 2004 | 3.6

2005 | 4.2

2006 | 1.4

2007 | 2.7

2008 | 4.5

2009 | 1.8 [/table]

 

One of these guys is Rocco Baldelli, the other is Randy Winn.

 

That's not exactly apples to apples. Winn played a whole lot more than Baldelli did.

 

I'm conceding that Winn's big advantage over Baldelli or Kapler is that in his past he was a starting player.

 

A word on his BABIP too. According to Frangraphs, Winn's overall BABIP was over .300. Even if you can cherry pick a situational stat, the obvious conclusion is that he must not have played the role in which he had such a low BABIP very often if his overall BABIP is still actually above average (and only slightly below his career norms).

 

What it boils down to IMHO is that here we have a 35 year old ballplayer who had career-normal BABIP, had vastly below normal results. Hits, walks, isolated power, all at least somewhat below their usual levels. His home run power has dried up entirely. Before I'd trust a guy with that with a job on my team I'd want to see some evidence that this isn't ordinary player age and decline kicking in for a guy who'll be 36 next year.

 

The upshot of it all is that sure, he could put up semi-decent numbers next year off the bench for us but counting on him to do it without looking at what he served up as an offensive performance last year is insane.

 

(And dont' give me NL West balkparks for an excuse. Most of Winn's career baseline is based on NL West and AL West ballparks)

 

If they got Randy Winn based on his peformance over the last few years I could handle it. I bet they go after someone younger and a bit more proven in centerfield though.

 

Actually given the choice, the guy I'd go after is Reed Johnson. He's probably the best guy out there who will definitely be a bench player. Speed, a bit of pop, has some experience in CF -- a bit light on OBP but that's why he won't get a starting job.

[Dipre]

Actually given the choice, the guy I'd go after is Reed Johnson. He's probably the best guy out there who will definitely be a bench player. Speed, a bit of pop, has some experience in CF -- a bit light on OBP but that's why he won't get a starting job.

 

Now this is a sensible argument.

[TheKilo]

Dojji, you really need to stop with the smug comments, they are becoming painful to read and are only going to lead to more arguments and fights.

 

Let's try to tone down the supposed intellectual superiority you think you have over others on this board.

 

As for the topic, in a decision between Kapler and Winn, I'll take Reddick.

[Dojji]

Dojji, you really need to stop with the smug comments, they are becoming painful to read and are only going to lead to more arguments and fights.

 

Frankly, Kilo, I'm only regurgitating what I'm fed around here. if you don't like my version, perhaps some of the rest of us around here shouldn't be rolling out their model.

[TheKilo]

Quite frankly, Dojji, it's becoming clear that you are nt as bothered by others posting styles as you mention, otherwise you wouldn't resort to those tactics. Arguing is one thing but dropping smug comments and then backing away is no way to conduct them. No one is saying don't stand up for yourself, ut dropping lines like "I just HAVE to respond to this lunacy" isn't going to get anyone anywhere.

[Dipre]

Frankly' date=' Kilo, I'm only regurgitating what I'm fed around here. if you don't like my version, perhaps some of the rest of us around here shouldn't be rolling out their model.[/quote']

 

Legendary hypocrite.

 

 

Arguing is one thing but dropping smug comments and then backing away is no way to conduct them. No one is saying don't stand up for yourself' date=' ut dropping lines like "I just HAVE to respond to this lunacy" isn't going to get anyone anywhere.[/quote']

 

This.

[Dojji]

Consider the alternative.

 

http://mohel.dk/grafik/andet/Someone_Is_Wrong_On_The_Internet.jpg

 

Don't these sessions go on long enough as it is? When I back off it's either because I realize the other guy is right or because the point is too minor even for me to nitpick about. Or because I'm not willing to put forward the effort to browbeat someone who's convinced they're right into submission which is the only way to really "end" an Internet debate without one person or the other backing off.

 

As for "smugness," personally I don't see it, but then I suppose I wouldn't since I'm used to my own head and the way I think. I'll admit that I can be arrogant. But I won't let you get away with making it sound like I'm the only arrogant poster here. There's certain people on this forum that I lock horns with on a very regular basis that could give a clinic on the subject.

[Dipre]

Lol cop-outs.

[Dojji]

Lol cop-outs.

 

Serious question, Dipre. How willing are you to keep making an ass of yourself just to keep this going?

 

You've been morphing into Gom on us recently.

[Dipre]

Serious question, Dipre. How willing are you to keep making an ass of yourself just to keep this going?

 

You've been morphing into Gom on us recently.

 

*Yawn.*

 

And you ask why we keep calling you a smug douchebag.

 

Keep it going, you're turning into a new and improved version of adam123.

 

I'll take being Gom every day of the week over that.

[jacksonianmarch]

Stop bickering ladies.

[Dipre]

Stop bickering ladies.

 

Meh.

 

The Yankee semi-troll is right.

[Dojji]

Are you even capable of a post that is not insulting to someone on this forum Dipre?

 

I mean Jacko's a little out there, yeah, but in taking his invitation to stop the fighting, you go about baiting yet another fight. Why?

[Dipre]

Are you even capable of a post that is not insulting to someone on this forum Dipre?

 

I mean Jacko's a little out there, yeah, but in taking his invitation to stop the fighting, you go about baiting yet another fight. Why?

 

A) Nice edit, you little bitch.

 

B ) Yes i can, unless it's not an enormous douchebag, like, you know, you?

[Dojji]

This is just a hunch, but I suspect you need a break from the forums for awhile. Get back on an even keel. You're really losing it.

[Dipre]

This is just a hunch' date=' but I suspect you need a break from the forums for awhile. Get back on an even keel. You're really losing it.[/quote']

 

I have a hunch myself.

 

Seeing as i'm not the one who edits posts, thinks he's superior intellectually to everyone in the universe and is obviously paranoid crying "everyone hates me", i think it's safe to say it's someone else who needs a break from the forums.

 

You know, that's what common sense would dictate.

[Dojji]

Pardon me for not expecting people to respond to my posts with hair-trigger speed.

[Dipre]

Pardon me for not expecting people to respond to my posts with hair-trigger speed.

 

Well then think about what you're posting before you hit submit like the rest of us.

[Dojji]

You do realize that at least half the time, when I'm posting about how "people" on the forum are out to get me it's to avoid singling you out specifically, Dipre.

 

What is your deal with me? About three quarters of the time someone's starting crap with me, it's you. And I'm not the only one to notice it. What exactly is your problem?

[yeszir]

All posts in this thread must now include a compliment (not backhanded) until I deem otherwise. Like your mother said, if you don't have something nice to say don't say it at all.

 

Yeszir is fair.

[Dipre]

All posts in this thread must now include a compliment (not backhanded) until I deem otherwise. Like your mother said, if you don't have something nice to say don't say it at all.

 

Yeszir is fair.

 

What a nice admin we have running this site!