Official 2009-2010 Hot Stove season thread

[Dipre]

The Yankees are a place he can play without a lot of pressure? Or did I read that wrong?

 

I think what he meant is Holliday would be a complimentary piece in that lineup.

 

Probably just worded it incorrectly.

[bsox0407]

holliday will want to go to a place where he can play without a lot of pressure. but if he does it will be yankees. plus i think bay is better for the sox. he knows the wall and hits pretty well.

 

i did say that. plus the yankees will prolly spend more on him then we can. the pressure will be worth the money. and the yankees will pay for anything. look at arod at 32 got a 10 year deal. he will be baseball dead well before then. the red sox will be smarter and not give that many years. i think that holliday will want to be locked up for a long time.

[Dipre]

I think what he meant is Holliday would be a complimentary piece in that lineup.

 

Probably just worded it incorrectly.

 

Well i keep using logic, but it just doesn't apply.

 

I'll keep my fingers off the keyboard next time.

[BSN07]

The Brewers are telling teams they don't plan to trade Prince Fielder. They hope to get pitching back in trades for shortstop J.J. Hardy and possibly third base prospect Mat Gamel, a .302 hitter in five minor league systems who has been made expendable by the emergence of Casey McGehee, claimed on waivers from the Cubs last fall.

 

Chicago Tribune

 

I think there is reason to believe the Sox having interest in both Hardy and Gamel.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Gamel? wut? I'll take those two providing the price isn't obscene.

[jacksonianmarch]

Lets drop the "he downt wike da presha" argument. These guys are going to take money and yrs over environment and if its close, then they will go with the better environment for them.

 

Lets start with Holliday:

He turns 30 this offseason

His career line is .318/.387/.545 for a .932OPS

His 2009 line was .313/.394/.515 for a .909OPS

 

His 2009 line was brought down by a dismal experience in the expanse in Oakland while languishing in last place. Since being infused into a playoff race, he put up a .353/.419/.604 line for a 1.023OPS.

 

he can play both OF positions well (minus that one big error) and brings speed with his other skills (80SBs in 5 seasons).

 

So, this guy is a top tier performer who brings 5 tools to the table and is entering the prime of his career. The last guy with his resume at a young age to hit the market was Teixeira, and you saw what he fetched. JD Drew prior to his deal with Boston was a similar performer, albeit his exodus from the dodgers and his durability made his situation a bit more dicey.

 

Magglio Ordonez was also very similar when he signed, but durability was also an issue since he was coming off an experimental knee surgery. He signed for 5yr 75 mil with 2 options that will make it a 7yr 105mil contract, and both options are likely to vest.

 

So, if we consider JD Drew as the low point as Drew is the cheapest of the three and had issues come up on his physicial, then 5yrs 70 mil should be the low point. Then consider that Holliday will be younger than both Ordonez and Drew, AND he has much more speed and has no durability issues and you are probably looking at Ordonez's AAV being the minimum salary here.

 

Then consider one other confounder, the Soriano signing in 2006. He signed for 8yrs at 136mil at the same age. Now Soriano was more of a speed threat, but is much worse in the OF and has been a worse hitter (OPS wise) than Holliday.

 

So, where does that leave us? Tex is the better player when compared to Holliday mostly due to Tex's insane patience, better power, switch hitting, and age (he was a yr and a half younger at the time of his FA compared to Holliday's).

 

So maybe Tex's contract is a ceiling at 8yrs 180million dollars. I would say that JD Drew's 5yrs 70 mil is a starting point AAV wise. And Ordonez's 7yrs 105mil contract and Soriano's 8yr 136million dollar contract are good middle points. I would have to say that Boras is going to get 7 yrs out of someone with a likely vesting option for an 8th since he is only 29 (turns 30 in 3 months). So lets say that, to sign Holliday, the sox would need to offer 7yrs $112mil with a vesting option for 18 mil on yr 8. Would that be too much? Too little? I dunno, but that is where I put his figure at.

[example1]

holliday will want to go to a place where he can play without a lot of pressure. but if he does it will be yankees. plus i think bay is better for the sox. he knows the wall and hits pretty well.

 

If the Sox signed Holliday for something approaching 20m/yr he could learn the wall and be well-established as a centerpiece of this lineup by 2011 at the latest.

 

Knowing the wall and not dealing with pressure are not things they need to consider when making this deal. Holliday two years ago was one of the premier hitters in all of baseball. Last year he moved around and, like Teixeira the year before, still performed admirably--especially with OBP. He's an elite hitter who is waiting to sign a big deal and settle in.

 

I can clearly imagine Holliday signing with someone else and two years from now us coveting him. Let's just skip the 'him signing with someone else' part and offer him one of those deals that only the Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, etc., can offer him. St. Louis will need that $$ to keep Pujols in a few years.

[BSN07]

Anyone heard anything about Sheets? He might be a decent 1 year deal type guy for the #5 spot IMO.

[jacksonianmarch]

you want another injury/rehab/"low risk" NL player? How bout John Smoltz or Brad Penny? I hear they are available

[bostonule25]

Anyone heard anything about Sheets? He might be a decent 1 year deal type guy for the #5 spot IMO.

All signs point to him going to Texas

[bsox0407]

how about brian McCann? he could be gotten for talent young and good offensively and defensively. avg. only 6 pb per year. throws out 24% of stealers and hits avg .293 and avg 24 hrs and 103 rbi a season. thats if he played 162

[Dipre]

how about brian McCann? he could be gotten for talent young and good offensively and defensively. avg. only 6 pb per year. throws out 24% of stealers and hits avg .293 and avg 24 hrs and 103 rbi a season.

 

Give me one good reason why Atlanta would trade B.Mc?

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

how about brian McCann? he could be gotten for talent young and good offensively and defensively. avg. only 6 pb per year. throws out 24% of stealers and hits avg .293 and avg 24 hrs and 103 rbi a season. thats if he played 162

We should focus on Albert Pujols and Evan Longoria first.

[bsox0407]

Give me one good reason why Atlanta would trade B.Mc?

 

 

nevermind on him just saw that his contract isnt up until 2012 but i think in 2012 he will be worth a lot of money.

[bsox0407]

We should focus on Albert Pujols and Evan Longoria first.

 

definitely if we could get them we could win every WS for the rest of time. j/k lol

[bsox0407]

Wakefield may not be done after all. he is having the surgery and it has been said that he should be ready for spring training(not by HIM though).

[example1]

Wakefield may not be done after all. he is having the surgery and it has been said that he should be ready for spring training(not by HIM though).

 

Hang 'em up Timmy! You too Tek! I think you would provide some amazing color analysis alongside Don Orsillo during road games next year.

 

Seriously, it's time to clean up around here. This team has 25 player slots, lots of money and a shitload of brains behind the scenes. One thing this team should not sacrifice is roster slots, the same way they would never sacrifice outs.

 

Wakefield's cost of 4 million has been a great bonus to the club for the past few years, but they were presumably looking for a time when they could replace him with a younger, better, cheaper pitcher. They have that guy, it's Clay Buchholz. Or Jon Lester. It is time for this club to have roster spots filled by guys who are currently in their prime and who, understandably, demand higher salaries.

 

Beckett

Lester

Buchholz

Dice-K

????--Not Wakefield

 

 

I'm sure I'll get plenty of "he's valuable at that price" arguments, but I simply think the Yankees have raised the bar in baseball and the way to beat them is to have players on your team who stand a chance of being them, and most other people. Not pitchers who you expect will pitch .500 baseball with an ERA around 4.20. Those expectations suck.

 

I like the idea of signing Lackey WAY more than the idea of resigning Wakefield or getting someone like Washburn... if at least because you're taking him away from ANA and adding him to your club.

[example1]

Ellsbury: where does he fit in all of this? Although he's an established member of this team, and I like him a lot as a player, I assume his trade value is still pretty high and that the Sox figure they can replace his WARP pretty easily within a year or two.

 

I would think that a big deal that didn't involve Buchholz could still involve Ellsbury. I think Jacoby would have natural drawing power in Seattle where he would definitely be adored and would be a very impressive compliment to Ichiro in RF. He's from Oregon and stared at Oregon State, so he's well known out here already.

 

Would this team be better off trying to patch together the CF position (again), while having a rotation of Felix, Beckett, Lester, Buchholz and Dice-K? That staff would likely really reduce the Runs Against and thus their expected pythag.

[bsox0407]

Ellsbury: where does he fit in all of this? Although he's an established member of this team, and I like him a lot as a player, I assume his trade value is still pretty high and that the Sox figure they can replace his WARP pretty easily within a year or two.

 

I would think that a big deal that didn't involve Buchholz could still involve Ellsbury. I think Jacoby would have natural drawing power in Seattle where he would definitely be adored and would be a very impressive compliment to Ichiro in RF. He's from Oregon and stared at Oregon State, so he's well known out here already.

 

Would this team be better off trying to patch together the CF position (again), while having a rotation of Felix, Beckett, Lester, Buchholz and Dice-K? That staff would likely really reduce the Runs Against and thus their expected pythag.

 

Ellsbury i would like to hold onto because i think he has a lot more to improve and can be really good if he can hit better than grounding out to second base. he needs to use the opposite field more oftne.

 

Hang 'em up Timmy! You too Tek! I think you would provide some amazing color analysis alongside Don Orsillo during road games next year.

 

Seriously, it's time to clean up around here. This team has 25 player slots, lots of money and a shitload of brains behind the scenes. One thing this team should not sacrifice is roster slots, the same way they would never sacrifice outs.

 

Wakefield's cost of 4 million has been a great bonus to the club for the past few years, but they were presumably looking for a time when they could replace him with a younger, better, cheaper pitcher. They have that guy, it's Clay Buchholz. Or Jon Lester. It is time for this club to have roster spots filled by guys who are currently in their prime and who, understandably, demand higher salaries.

 

Beckett

Lester

Buchholz

Dice-K

????--Not Wakefield

 

 

I'm sure I'll get plenty of "he's valuable at that price" arguments, but I simply think the Yankees have raised the bar in baseball and the way to beat them is to have players on your team who stand a chance of being them, and most other people. Not pitchers who you expect will pitch .500 baseball with an ERA around 4.20. Those expectations suck.

 

I like the idea of signing Lackey WAY more than the idea of resigning Wakefield or getting someone like Washburn... if at least because you're taking him away from ANA and adding him to your club.

 

 

i agree i think both should retire but if wake can stay healthy he could be really good for us next year. this year was an all-star appearance for him.

[example1]

Ellsbury i would like to hold onto because i think he has a lot more to improve and can be really good if he can hit better than grounding out to second base. he needs to use the opposite field more oftne.

 

He needs to do a lot of things more if he wants to be an elite player. He's a very good player, he will probably have a few really good seasons where he's very exciting. He's actually probably my favorite offensive player on the Sox right now.

 

Even with that, though, I see three concerning things:

--His fielding: somehow he rates as a negative fielder. I personally think he's a very good fielder overall, but he does some things absurdly well and some things quite poorly. In any case, nobody can find me a metric that says he's among the league's best CFs defensively.

--His overall production: again, pretty low. His skills don't really translate to wins... yet. With his speed he really needs to focus on just being an OBP machine. His SBs and Runs are really just limited by the amount he's able to get on base. This year he showed signs of it toward the last half, but he's still not an elite leadoff hitter or CF.

--Scott Boras: That's his agent. It is unlikely that he will sign for anything reasonable once he's a FA. I expect that he'll be a Red Sox only for his initial contract.

 

If they want to trade him, I bet Seattle would love to be the fastest show on Earth with Ichiro and Ellsbury at the top of the lineup.

 

i agree i think both should retire but if wake can stay healthy he could be really good for us next year. this year was an all-star appearance for him.

 

 

It was well-deserved. It doesn't mean he's an all-star all the time though. He's old. He's often injured. When he's not he's hit or miss, .500 pitcher. Good enough for most times, but when the team is fighting to fill every roster spot with the highest caliber player to compete with a team spending almost twice as much on the same number of slots, I draw the line.

[SCM33]

I think they need to cut that fat here.

 

*Varitek needs to go.

*Wakefield needs to go.

*Lowell needs to go.

*Delcarmen is not the bullpen arm we once thought he would be.

*We have zero depth on the bench, lets be realistic, it was pretty horrible to have Lowrie as a PH option in a series deciding game.

 

 

While Lowell was a nice bat in the lineup, his injury was one of the things that handicapped this team this season. Even on the field, he looked like a shadow of his old self defensively.

 

I think there is a lot that needs to be done in this offseason.

 

Questions to ponder:

Is Josh Beckett overrated? He's been good, but lets face it....besides 2007, has he really been an ace?

Will Dice-K rebound and have a productive full season?

Is Papelbon on this team next year (not based on his last appearance, but based on contract situation)?

Is Ellsbury on this team next year?

Who plays 1B and 3B next year?

Who plays SS next year?

[bsox0407]

very true on all example1. i think i would be to scared to play against the mariners if ells went there.

[bostonule25]

unrealistic, but for pipedreams would this be a fair deal?

 

Phillies in: Paps, Lowell, Hermida

 

Red Sox in: Werth Hanley

 

Marlins in: Casey Kelly, Expositio Josh Reddick, Micheal Bowden from Sox, and 2 A prospects from the philies and a B guy

[Dojji]

Certainly pitting a lot on the table. And I'm pretty sure the Phillies get a fairly raw deal.

[Spudboy]

Certainly pitting a lot on the table. And I'm pretty sure the Phillies get a fairly raw deal.

 

Hey Dojji!

 

Can you explain this "in" deal to an old man?

 

I don't understand it.

 

Thanks.

[bostonule25]

Certainly pitting a lot on the table. And I'm pretty sure the Phillies get a fairly raw deal.

 

Yea i think i ripped the phillies a little, but imo they get what they need. Feliz has been awful since July with a OPS of 625. Lowell in that part would do wonders for the team. In 101 PA at Citizens Bank Park, hes had a line of 348/396/697/1.093. Plus a reliable closer has been a big need for them with lidge's stuggles. we'd probably have to do something else though like eat Lidge's salary for all sides to be happy. Then again it's just a fantasy

[bostonule25]

Hey Dojji!

 

Can you explain this "in" deal to an old man?

 

I don't understand it.

 

Thanks.

huh?

[bsox0407]

huh?

 

the in thing means what each team gets in the trade the sox get werth and Hanley and so on and so forth. the sox should hold onto papelbon and save him and just try to get hanley.

[TheKilo]

Question:

 

Do i have to provide a link for this year when he obviously did try to acquire him?

 

Or only for the time he tried to get him before Texas traded him to SD?

 

Yes.

[TheKilo]

Assuming we get one of Bay and Holliday do we have a "real need" for Adrian Gonzalez?

 

Recognizing that there's a difference between "would represent a re-frickin-ridulous upgrade" and "real need" of course.

 

Bingo