Official 2009-2010 Hot Stove season thread

[Dipre]

But your point is comparing a player well past his prime and someone who is right in the thick of his prime. I could say that Andy Pettitte has a better AL track record than Lackey' date=' but I wont since Pettitte is 37 yrs old and Lackey is still in his prime.[/quote']

 

Petitte doesn't have a better AL track record than Lackey, so your example fails miserably.

 

Lackey AL stats: 3.81 ERA, 1.30 WHIP.

 

Pettite AL stats: 4.02 ERA, 1.38 WHIP.

 

Also, Vasquez is going to be 33 years old come opening day, he's no spring chicken.

 

I would also like to remind those in the "discussion" that, if like Jacko, they're not going to base their arguments around stats or logical analysis please refrain from the discussion, since trolling is not welcome here.

[jacksonianmarch]

The point is, you are comparing a player well past his prime to a pitcher in his prime. Yes, Vazquez is 33, but he is still throwing at max velocity and had a career season last yr. It is hard to make any sort of argument outside of pure bias that compares the two. Wakefield hasnt pitched a full season without injury or ineffectiveness since 2005. Vazquez, OTOH, has reached 198IP every yr for a decade.

 

Also, saying that you'd take Lackey over Pettitte in their primes is outright laughable. Pettitte played in the tougher division and is arguably one of the best post-season pitchers of all time.

[Dipre]

The point is, you are comparing a player well past his prime to a pitcher in his prime. Yes, Vazquez is 33, but he is still throwing at max velocity and had a career season last yr. It is hard to make any sort of argument outside of pure bias that compares the two. Wakefield hasnt pitched a full season without injury or ineffectiveness since 2005. Vazquez, OTOH, has reached 198IP for a decade.

 

Also, saying that you'd take Lackey over Pettitte in their primes is outright laughable. Pettitte played in the tougher division and is arguably one of the best post-season pitchers of all time.

 

It's laughable for you as a Yankee fan.

 

In Andy Pettite's 27-32 seasons he compiled the following numbers:

 

27: 4.70 ERA, 1.49 WHIP

 

28: 4.35 ERA, 1.46 WHIP

 

29: 3.99 ERA, 1.32 WHIP

 

30: 3.27 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

 

31: 4.02 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

 

32: 3.90 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

 

In his 27-30 seasons, Lackey has had one season with a WHIP over 1.27 and one season with an ERA over 3.80.

 

Bias is funny.

[yankees228]

All this talk about who's better. You mean on paper? I think the Yankees are better. They better be. After all they spend much more. That's their goal. Who ultimately wins will depend on injuries.

 

The Yankees' approach now is to maximize their spending advantage--not to try to compete at the farm system level. That means not only signing the top FAs, but trading for salary dumps other teams want to unload and will take less in return. When you get a player and give up less, you improve. That's what happened with Granderson and Vasquez. Not "steals", as the media reported, but simple salary dumps teams wanted to unload where the Yankees effectively "agreed" to add salary in return for giving up less. They added about $8 mil for Vasquez and about the same for Granderson, whose contract balloons after next year. The teams they traded with, the Braves and Tigers, of course, saved that much to do other things.

 

Cashman made some very clever deals here--improving his team by taking on salary. Contrast that to Epstein, who is forever trying to deal for young, low salaried stars like AdGon or HRam. The only way you can get those types is to OVERPAY in talent, so the net effect is to weaken your team in the long run.

 

Theo probably realizes this, which is why there is renewed interest in Bay. Bay could be the logical route to making a deal for AdGon involving Ellsbury which doesn't weaken the team--since they now have Cameron near term for CF and replacements longer term. I think Ellsbury's agent Boras is also a factor. I doubt the Red Sox will re-sign Ellsbury, since Boras will push him into the FA market--like he will Pap. Say goodbye to both. I think Pap will be traded, too, perhaps by July.

 

You think those moves are salary dumps, we get that. However, when you're shown that the other team got a significant return, and that financially, plenty of other teams are capable of making the same moves, you ignore the points, yet continue on the same path. You're making a point, covering your ears when someone presents a counter argument, and then continuing to make the same point over and over and over again.

 

Also, what plays out on the field has to do with a lot more things than just injuries. Time and time again you want to make it seem like the Yankees only win because of how much money they spend, when their are a number of other significant factors at play. These factors include smart front office decisions, contributions from cost-controlled players, chemistry (who knows), coaching and managerial decisions, luck (involving more than just health), among many other things. You continue to spout only what helps prove your point, yet you ignore the evidence and logic which counters your point.

 

As for the actual argument, 1-5, the Red Sox starting rotation is simply better than the Yankees. Lester, Beckett, and Lackey, for all the reasons already mentioned, is a better top three than Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettitte. The bottom part of the rotation is closer, mainly because it hinges almost entirely on unknowns (how far Buchholz and Chamberlain/Hughes progress, how Daisuke rebounds, and how Vazquez's numbers translate back to the American League).

[Dipre]

You think those moves are salary dumps, we get that. However, when you're shown that the other team got a significant return, and that financially, plenty of other teams are capable of making the same moves, you ignore the points, yet continue on the same path. You're making a point, covering your ears when someone presents a counter argument, and then continuing to make the same point over and over and over again.

 

Also, what plays out on the field has to do with a lot more things than just injuries. Time and time again you want to make it seem like the Yankees only win because of how much money they spend, when their are a number of other significant factors at play. These factors include smart front office decisions, contributions from cost-controlled players, chemistry (who knows), coaching and managerial decisions, luck (involving more than just health), among many other things. You continue to spout only what helps prove your point, yet you ignore the evidence and logic which counters your point.

 

As is stated before, there is no significant talent return in a salary dump, and Mike Dunn might be closing in Atlanta in 2011, but the prize of the three is obviously Vizcaino. 97+ MPH fastballs don't grow on trees.

 

As for the actual argument, 1-5, the Red Sox starting rotation is simply better than the Yankees. Lester, Beckett, and Lackey, for all the reasons already mentioned, is a better top three than Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettitte. The bottom part of the rotation is closer, mainly because it hinges almost entirely on unknowns (how far Buchholz and Chamberlain/Hughes progress, how Daisuke rebounds, and how Vazquez's numbers translate back to the American League).

 

I like you.

[BSN07]

This is probably true, though you and I have no idea what the actual negotiations are. I doubt Theo has any interest in parting with Buchholz, Kelly, or Westmoreland. He should be confident that the team has many capable pieces that will be attractive--especially to the guys who were patting themselves on the back after the 05-09 drafts (McLeod and Hoyer

 

McLeod knows these prospects as well as anyone, he drafted them:

http://news.soxprospects.com/2009/08/q-with-jason-mcleod.html

 

 

 

 

The Yankees have a great team, there's no doubt about that.

 

I don't think it is in the Sox best interest to break the bank on Jason Bay. Bay probably isn't interested in signing at the price they're willing to pay him to be a LF and then take up 3-4 years hogging up the DH position a la 2009/2010 Mike Lowell. I think Bay is a better hitter than Lowell, but this FO really doesn't like to lack flexibility, either financial or positional, if they can help it. At least with Matt Holliday they can be reasonably assured that he can manage LF for a good portion of the contract.

 

I'll be pleasantly surprised if they end up with either of them, at this point. I think getting Matt Holliday for a reasonable deal when the market seems quiet would be a good move, but I'm not sure how much that would cost. Likewise if Bay is really not interested in going anywhere that wants him (specifically NYM) then maybe he comes back to the Sox at a reasonable Ortiz-like deal. It's not my money so the luxary tax hit and lack of future payroll flexability doesn't mean as much to me as it probably does them.

 

Signing Bay all-but assures the notion that Ortiz will be leaving town after 2010 and Bay is waiting to take his place; it could also portend an Ellsbury move. Clubhouse anxiety isn't a great thing on a team that is already playoff-good. They can't sign too many replacements for the expiring contracts without it causing some trouble, and they were quick to try to reassure Beckett after the Lackey signing.

I really couldn't agree more with you. Although I think this is Papi's last season in Boston regardless IMO. If he sucks he's gone. If he has a decent or a monster season, I don't see him taking another "hometown discount" so to speak". He's going to want 2 yeas minimum, and I don't think the Sox will want to go more the one guaranteed with a 2nd year option. But that's just how I see it. I admit I could be way off.

 

The current sox team cannot hold a candle to the yankee squad in the regular season' date=' but they should make the playoffs[/quote']

 

The Yankees will outspend the Sox by 40M+(reasonable estimate IMO) and end up winning the division by 5-6 games Big whip.

[riverside sluggers]

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view/20091229red_sox_casey_kotchman_on_claus_nice_list/

 

Laughable herald article saying that the Sox tendered Kotchman a contract because they view him as a starting 1st baseman, not just a stop gap. Yes thats why theyre still trying to get Adrian Gonzalez, and have been linked to Adrian Beltre

[Dipre]

The Yankees will outspend the Sox by 40M+(reasonable estimate IMO) and end up winning the division by 5-6 games Big whip.

 

And watch out, because the roster isn't even set in stone. There's still the possibility of the Sox bringing Bay back, and that would close the gap significantly. And what if they were to get one of the two who shall remain nameless afterwards?

 

Hmmmm.............

[jacksonianmarch]

I really couldn't agree more with you. Although I think this is Papi's last season in Boston regardless IMO. If he sucks he's gone. If he has a decent or a monster season, I don't see him taking another "hometown discount" so to speak". He's going to want 2 yeas minimum, and I don't think the Sox will want to go more the one guaranteed with a 2nd year option. But that's just how I see it. I admit I could be way off.

 

 

 

The Yankees will outspend the Sox by 40M+(reasonable estimate IMO) and end up winning the division by 5-6 games Big whip.

 

The Yankees are right at the 200M mark, while the sox are up against the 170M mark. I have a feeling that it will be more like 25 mil by the time the season starts.

[BSN07]

And watch out, because the roster isn't even set in stone. There's still the possibility of the Sox bringing Bay back, and that would close the gap significantly. And what if they were to get one of the two who shall remain nameless afterwards?

 

Hmmmm.............

Oh I know. I was just pointing out that the Yanks will spend 25-30M( V according to Jacko's estimates, which seem reasonable) to win the division by a few games. While the Sox will spend 25-30M less and still have the same exact chances of winning the WS(assuming the win the WC, which they would be the favorites for IMO(if healthy)).

The Yankees are right at the 200M mark' date=' while the sox are up against the 170M mark. I have a feeling that it will be more like 25 mil by the time the season starts.[/quote']

[jacksonianmarch]

So...Home field advantage isnt some sort of an advantage? Especially when the sox suck on the road and the Yankees dominate at home?

[Dipre]

So...Home field advantage isnt some sort of an advantage? Especially when the sox suck on the road and the Yankees dominate at home?

 

So the Sox suck on the road in 2010?

 

Even though 0 games have been played for the 2010 season?

[riverside sluggers]

So...Home field advantage isnt some sort of an advantage? Especially when the sox suck on the road and the Yankees dominate at home?

 

And the Red Sox dont dominate at home?

[BSN07]

So...Home field advantage isnt some sort of an advantage? Especially when the sox suck on the road and the Yankees dominate at home?

 

Yes to an extent. Maybe with the crowd. I don't believe it to be the be all end all though. The away team has the same capability to taking the same advantages of the home team as far as how the park plays.

[BSN07]

And the Red Sox dont dominate at home?

 

I think he is alluding to the fact the WS would have to go through NY in the scenario we are discussing(not caring about winning the division).

[jacksonianmarch]

And the Red Sox dont dominate at home?

 

exactly. So, the AL East crown is more important when you are talking about two teams that absolutely dominate in their own buildings

[JimEdHOF2009]

Petitte doesn't have a better AL track record than Lackey, so your example fails miserably.

 

Lackey AL stats: 3.81 ERA, 1.30 WHIP.

 

Pettite AL stats: 4.02 ERA, 1.38 WHIP.

 

Also, Vasquez is going to be 33 years old come opening day, he's no spring chicken.

 

I would also like to remind those in the "discussion" that, if like Jacko, they're not going to base their arguments around stats or logical analysis please refrain from the discussion, since trolling is not welcome here.

 

Let's not forget Javier's sterling 4.91 ERA for Yankees in 2004.. Let us also not forget Javier's abysmal 9.53 ERA in the post-season that same year.. 11.1 innings of PURE SUCK.. Let us also not forget Ozzie Guillen's assesment of Vazquez as a pitcher who couldn't handle pitching in meaningful/BIG games.. Ozzie continually chastised Vazquez in the media.. I lived in Chicago at the time and watched the Chi-Sox quite a bit.. I have to agree with his assessment. Let us also not forget that the NEW Yankee Stadium will inflate Javy's 2004 numbers further. I watched Javy this year..he was very good in NL... he pitched against some terrible hitting teams... He will be back to a mid-high 4 ERA with a chance to be in the 5's back in the A.L. East, where even the crappy teams can hit...

 

I would MUCH rather have Clay Buchholz in the 5 slot than Javy "Bit-Spitter" Vazquez..and I guarantee you Brian Cashman would as well.

[BSN07]

Let's not forget Javier's sterling 4.91 ERA for Yankees in 2004.. Let us also not forget Javier's abysmal 9.53 ERA in the post-season that same year.. 11.1 innings of PURE SUCK.. Let us also not forget Ozzie Guillen's assesment of Vazquez as a pitcher who couldn't handle pitching in meaningful/BIG games.. Ozzie continually chastised Vazquez in the media.. I lived in Chicago at the time and watched the Chi-Sox quite a bit.. I have to agree with his assessment. LEt us also not forget that the NEW Yankee Stadium will inflate Javy's 2004 numbers further. I watched Javy this year..he was very good in NL... he pitched against some terrible hitting teams... He will be back to a mid-high 4 ERA with a chance to be in the 5' back in the A.L. East where even the crappy teams can hit...

 

I would MUCH rather have Clay Buchholz in the 5 slot than Javy "Bit-Spitter" Vazquez..and I guarantee you Brian Cashman would as well.

 

I don't see great things coming out of Vasquez this season. Probably average, but that's ok for the #4 spot. I will give him a little slack because he was injured he last tour through NY,

[Dipre]

I don't see great things coming out of Vasquez this season. Probably average' date=' but that's ok for the #4 spot. I will give him a little slack because he was injured he last tour through NY,[/quote']

 

The fact is, that anyone with regular brain functions will tell you that the Sox have a better starting rotation than the Yankees, however, Jacko keeps attacking this notion from different (and usually ridiculous) angles by targeting things such as Dice-K's health (because AJ Burnett and Andy Petitte have always been models of health) or the depth of the Yanks rotation (The Sox have the best 1-3, and have an above average 6 in Wakefield) or the effectiveness of either rotation (it's just silly to argue against Lester-Beckett-Lackey.)

 

Everyone on the site can easily admit the Yankees have the better offense, so why the f*** can't some Yankee fans stop making s*** up and admitting the Sox have better pitching?

 

Jesus Christ.

[riverside sluggers]

Vazquez has spent 4 seasons pitching in the AL, in his 12 year career

 

Yankees (2004)- 4.91

White Sox (2006-2008)- 4.84, 3.74, 4.67

[Dipre]

Vazquez has spent 4 seasons pitching in the AL, in his 12 year career

 

Yankees (2004)- 4.91

White Sox (2006-2008)- 4.84, 3.74, 4.67

 

Interestingly enough, Vasquez' 2007 season featured the lowest LD% of his career, highest LOB%, and tied with 2009 for lowest BABIP, but his HR/FB% was the highest from his years with the White Sox. Go figure.

[riverside sluggers]

With pitching in the AL East, and having Yankee Stadium as his home park... him having an ERA under 4.50 would surprise me very much so. The only sure thing is that he will give them innings

[Plumpamania]

So...Home field advantage isnt some sort of an advantage? Especially when the sox suck on the road and the Yankees dominate at home?

 

Games 6 & 7, 2004 ALCS, WoW that mystique and aura worked off...go home field!

[example1]

I would still be really happy if this team stayed "as is" and they went after Aroldis Chapman. I'm not assuring anyone that he's going to be a star, but I've watched a couple of videos that show the behind the batter viewpoint and he's got long arms and legs and really whips the ball in there. He's freakish in the way the ball leaps out of his hand.

 

I would like to see what this team could do with Chapman and Kelly as the next group of pitchers to join the big club. At the very least paying him 5-7m/year to be a LH reliever to match Daniel Bard wouldn't be the hugest loss.

 

The reports had the Sox offering something like $15m (unknown number of years). If they're really hot on this guy then I could see that as a "floated" offer to throw other teams off. Why would they expose how much they offered to him? They wouldn't, IMO. I could see a 20+m offer for this kid. A 1st round pick who simply makes the majors as mlb average is worth something like $15m over the course of his contract. An accomplished #1 pick type-player should easily be worth that if he gets to the show, and if they can sign him for long enough.

 

He throws 100 and is left handed. He'll probably get to the show.

[example1]

Games 6 & 7' date=' 2004 ALCS, WoW that mystique and aura worked off...go home field![/quote']

 

Are we really arguing against the advantage that home field offers? Would you rather watch a game 7 in Fenway or Yankee Stadium? I know I feel a lot better when it is Fenway and the Sox have the home fans and bat last.

 

How much that advantage is worth is really the question. All things being equal, everyone should want HFA. If the Yankees are willing to pay tens of millions more for that opportunity, then I suppose it's a "more power to 'em" situation. In the *crapshootish* playoffs, it is an advantage but I don't think it is worth tens of millions of dollars for teams that can make the playoffs every year.

[JimEdHOF2009]

Everyone on the site can easily admit the Yankees have the better offense, so why the f*** can't some Yankee fans stop making s*** up and admitting the Sox have better pitching?Jesus Christ.

 

They wouldn't be the most front-running, MYOPIC, clueless, fans in sports if they actually took an objective look at things. I actually have come to like their obtuse thinking. It makes it MUCH, MUCH sweeter when we beat them...

 

They can talk their crap all they want....

 

Lester/Beckett/Lackey/Dice-K/and Clay...with Wakes in reserve, is EASILY the best starting 5 in baseball..and it isn't even close. The Red Sox bullpen is also the DEEPEST bullpen in baseball.. and this cannot be argued either. Bring it Yankee fans.. I have plenty of stats to back up my contention.

 

I can admit the Yankees have a better lineup...as of this second.

 

Should the Red Sox add Gonzalez..then we will have one heated discussion... should they subsequently add Bay or Holliday... Red Sox will have the best lineup...staff...and bullpen in baseball.

[example1]

Lester/Beckett/Lackey/Dice-K/and Clay...with Wakes in reserve, is EASILY the best starting 5 in baseball..and it isn't even close. The Red Sox bullpen is also the DEEPEST bullpen in baseball.. and this cannot be argued either. Bring it Yankee fans.. I have plenty of stats to back up my contention.

 

I would argue that the CC is the best pitcher of the bunch. Lester, Beckett and Lackey are all better than Burnett. When healthy, Dice-K and Pettitte are arguably equal and Buchholz and Joba are arguably equal. Buchholz is clearly the more projectable starter, in terms of build and durability. Joba's competitiveness cannot be called into question, neither can his stuff when he's throwing hard.

 

I can admit the Yankees have a better lineup...as of this second.

 

As if to confirm what Dipre was saying, so can I. The Yankees lineup has been the better lineup for years... on paper at least.

 

Should the Red Sox add Gonzalez..then we will have one heated discussion... should they subsequently add Bay or Holliday... Red Sox will have the best lineup...staff...and bullpen in baseball.

 

Don't count on it. They will get their big bat to add to this lineup, but not at the expense of having the best team possible... it might take awhile. Holliday and Bay just don't seem good enough to spend that much FA money on when Mike Cameron can be had for 15m/2 yrs and the team isn't hamstrung and still has financial flexability going into the 2010 deadline and 2011 FA class.

[Dipre]

I would argue that the CC is the best pitcher of the bunch. Lester' date=' Beckett and Lackey are all better than Burnett. When healthy, Dice-K and Pettitte are arguably equal and Buchholz and Joba are arguably equal. Buchholz is clearly the [i']more projectable[/i] starter, in terms of build and durability. Joba's competitiveness cannot be called into question, neither can his stuff when he's throwing hard.

 

It's a lot closer between Lester and CC than Beckett and Lackey versus Burnett and Petitte. Not even close.

[example1]

It's a lot closer between Lester and CC than Beckett and Lackey versus Burnett and Petitte. Not even close.

 

Agreed.

[yankees228]

I really couldn't agree more with you. Although I think this is Papi's last season in Boston regardless IMO. If he sucks he's gone. If he has a decent or a monster season, I don't see him taking another "hometown discount" so to speak". He's going to want 2 yeas minimum, and I don't think the Sox will want to go more the one guaranteed with a 2nd year option. But that's just how I see it. I admit I could be way off.

 

 

 

The Yankees will outspend the Sox by 40M+(reasonable estimate IMO) and end up winning the division by 5-6 games Big whip.

 

History has shown that a payroll difference of that size often does not dictate the standings. If the Yankees win the division, it will be about more than just their payroll gap over the Red Sox.

 

As for both teams have the same chance, I agree, even more so because I think it can be argued that in a best of seven series a team might prefer the middle three games at home.