Official 2009-2010 Hot Stove season thread

[yankees228]

Think about the players as they were known at the time. Before 2007 think about how you would have replied to debate over Cano vs. Pedroia, Lowell vs. A-Rod, Lugo vs. Jeter, Varitek vs. Posada, Damon vs Crisp, even Youkilis vs. Giambi (or whoever the 1B was)etc.,

 

Looking back on it now the Sox had the better 07 team on paper, but that wasn't the case at the time. Beckett was coming off his s***** 06 season, Dice-K was a new-import, Schilling was injured, Lester was recovering, the list goes on. The Sox were boosted by an unexpected ROY year from Pedroia and a late season contribution from Lester and Ellsbury to win. Not something predictable just by looking at the teams on paper. Likewise with 2004, the Yankees were defending AL Champs and it took a miracle for the Sox to win that year.

 

What type of "you can't see it now but it could be there" potential does the 2010 team have? Ellsbury could play like he did the last 50 games of 09 and become a very valuable player; Dice-K can pitch well; Buchholz can do what so many people think he can do and perform like an ace; Ortiz can return to some semblance of himself; Victor Martinez can be a 120ish OPS+ contributer for a whole season; Scutaro could repeat his 2009 season, etc., etc.,

 

Some of those things could improve the team over last year's team, even with the loss of Jason Bay, and last year's team dealt with some unfortunate s*** and still managed to win 95 games.

 

That's all true going into 2007, but the Red Sox had something that the Yankees didn't have...the best 3-4 combination in the game. Offensively, this is what kept the Red Sox on par with the Yankees. Now, that doesn't exist anymore, and the Yankees are the team that has that 3-4 combination.

 

As for 2004, going into the postseason that year, I thought the Red Sox were better than the Yankees, because of the pitching. Calling it a miracle, in my opinion, is an overstatement. The better team won because they got a few breaks, their superior pitching took over, and they were able to win four games in a row.

 

Now, I absolutely think the Red Sox can contend for a championship moving forward. They can compete with the Yankees for the reasons you mentioned, and, even if they can't, the wild card and the crapshoot nature of the postseason gives them a pretty decent shot at a title. However, while the Red Sox improved their rotation and their defense, I believe a gap (not a big one) exists now that didn't exist in past years, when the two teams were relatively on par.

[a700hitter]

Think about the players as they were known at the time. Before 2007 think about how you would have replied to debate over Cano vs. Pedroia, Lowell vs. A-Rod, Lugo vs. Jeter, Varitek vs. Posada, Damon vs Crisp, even Youkilis vs. Giambi (or whoever the 1B was)etc.,

 

Looking back on it now the Sox had the better 07 team on paper, but that wasn't the case at the time. Beckett was coming off his s***** 06 season, Dice-K was a new-import, Schilling was injured, Lester was recovering, the list goes on. The Sox were boosted by an unexpected ROY year from Pedroia and a late season contribution from Lester and Ellsbury to win. Not something predictable just by looking at the teams on paper. Likewise with 2004, the Yankees were defending AL Champs and it took a miracle for the Sox to win that year.

 

What type of "you can't see it now but it could be there" potential does the 2010 team have? Ellsbury could play like he did the last 50 games of 09 and become a very valuable player; Dice-K can pitch well; Buchholz can do what so many people think he can do and perform like an ace; Ortiz can return to some semblance of himself; Victor Martinez can be a 120ish OPS+ contributer for a whole season; Scutaro could repeat his 2009 season, etc., etc.,

 

Some of those things could improve the team over last year's team, even with the loss of Jason Bay, and last year's team dealt with some unfortunate s*** and still managed to win 95 games.

In 2003 to 2005, the Red Sox had record setting offensive production. It might have been a surprise in 2003, but it wasn't in the subsequent years. The Sox clearly had the superior offenses during 2004-05 without the benefit of hindsight. In 2004, the FO also picked up one of the premier starters in the game-- Schilling to head the rotation with Pedro and Lowe. They also added one of the premier closers in Foulke.

 

In 2007, the Sox added the most sought after pitcher of the off season to head a rotation with Beckett and Schilling (who did pitch a 1 hitter in 2007, before getting injured). Dice K wasn't just some import. They also added Drew whose talent has never been questioned. In 2004 and 2007, the FO made bold moves to improve those teams to compete with and beat the Yankees. The 2007 team went wire to wire. They didn't get there because of the emergence of Ellsbury late in the season. They were built to win, and they won with underperformances by Lugo and Drew that were balanced out by the unexpected emergence of Pedroia and Okajima. They were built to win. It was not a case of that team getting lucky.

 

This year they made the big pitching acquisition, but they have clearly taken a step back offensively dropping further behind a Yankee team that had already become dominant offensively thanks to the addition of Mark Teixeira. This year's team is not built to win. Kotchman and Cameron are not going to get it done.

[a700hitter]

As for 2004' date=' going into the postseason that year, I thought the Red Sox were better than the Yankees, because of the pitching. Calling it a miracle, in my opinion, is an overstatement. The better team won because they got a few breaks, their superior pitching took over, and they were able to win four games in a row.. [/quote']What was truly surprising to me was that the Sox had played so poorly in the first 3 games and 8 innings of that ALCS. They were lifeless. I remember watching the 9th inning of game 4 with my son who was home from college. I said to him that I couldn't believe that they were going to go down so meekly without a wimper. I told him that I couldn't believe that I had misjudged them so completely. The Sox didn't win that ALCS by some freakish miracle or divine intervention. They were the better team that was the best team in baseball down the stretch, and they decided to wake up just in the nick of time.

[a700hitter]

What type of "you can't see it now but it could be there" potential does the 2010 team have? Ellsbury could play like he did the last 50 games of 09 and become a very valuable player; Dice-K can pitch well; Buchholz can do what so many people think he can do and perform like an ace; Ortiz can return to some semblance of himself; Victor Martinez can be a 120ish OPS+ contributer for a whole season; Scutaro could repeat his 2009 season, etc., etc.,

 

Some of those things could improve the team over last year's team, even with the loss of Jason Bay, and last year's team dealt with some unfortunate s*** and still managed to win 95 games.

The difference between the 2007 team and the 2010 team is that the 2007 team was expected to win if everyone just performed to their baseline. They were expected to win if Pedroia was merely average. At the start of the year, no one thought that they would need an insane year from Pedroia to win. Unfortunately, Lugo had a terrible year, Drew substantially underperformed and Schilling got injured. Three really bad things happened, but the team was so strong that it only needed Pedroia's surprise to keep it on top. The 2010 team needs everyone to perform to baseline and for there to be some breakout performances to beat the Yankees and go all the way. They will not be able to afford to have three players under perform or be injured for substantial portions of the season. The margin of error will be very small for this team, and in my experience, when a team needs everything to go right in order to succeed, that almost never happens.

[example1]

That's all true going into 2007' date=' but the Red Sox had something that the Yankees didn't have...the best 3-4 combination in the game. Offensively, this is what kept the Red Sox on par with the Yankees. Now, that doesn't exist anymore, and the Yankees are the team that has that 3-4 combination. [/quote']

 

They may have had the best 3-4 combination in the game, but in 2006 A-Rod went 36/121 (.914) and Giambi went 37/113 (.971). The Red Sox had two guys who were slightly better, but nobody else with an OPS over .900.

 

You're putting too much weight on the 3-4 combination.

 

Before the 2007 season a number of people here didn't have a hard time saying the Yankees were better on paper than the Sox were. http://www.talksox.com/forum/talk-sox-forum/8544-red-sox-will-finish-3rd-al-east-6.html

 

As for 2004, going into the postseason that year, I thought the Red Sox were better than the Yankees, because of the pitching. Calling it a miracle, in my opinion, is an overstatement. The better team won because they got a few breaks, their superior pitching took over, and they were able to win four games in a row.

 

In 2004 they got breaks and the Yankees blew it. They traded one of their biggest "on paper" pieces to get 3 less attractive pieces, one of whom happened to get a very important SB, but that wouldn't have been predicted on paper.

 

Now, I absolutely think the Red Sox can contend for a championship moving forward. They can compete with the Yankees for the reasons you mentioned, and, even if they can't, the wild card and the crapshoot nature of the postseason gives them a pretty decent shot at a title. However, while the Red Sox improved their rotation and their defense, I believe a gap (not a big one) exists now that didn't exist in past years, when the two teams were relatively on par.

 

I think this perspective is just the hangover from the World Series. They're close, though I think we're in agreement that the Sox are just a bit behind.

 

In 2003 to 2005, the Red Sox had record setting offensive production. It might have been a surprise in 2003, but it wasn't in the subsequent years. The Sox clearly had the superior offenses during 2004-05 without the benefit of hindsight. In 2004, the FO also picked up one of the premier starters in the game-- Schilling to head the rotation with Pedro and Lowe. They also added one of the premier closers in Foulke.

 

In 2007, the Sox added the most sought after pitcher of the off season to head a rotation with Beckett and Schilling (who did pitch a 1 hitter in 2007, before getting injured). Dice K wasn't just some import. They also added Drew whose talent has never been questioned. In 2004 and 2007, the FO made bold moves to improve those teams to compete with and beat the Yankees. The 2007 team went wire to wire. They didn't get there because of the emergence of Ellsbury late in the season. They were built to win, and they won with underperformances by Lugo and Drew that were balanced out by the unexpected emergence of Pedroia and Okajima. They were built to win. It was not a case of that team getting lucky.

 

You weren't writing them down as favorites at the time. All of your praise for how well constructed they were are just revisionist history. At the time you thought Pedroia was average at best and you were convinced that Youkilis was nothing special at all. At the time you didn't think Matsuzaka was the best pitcher available, you thought he was a huge risk.

 

If you thought they were favorites on paper it is only coincidental, because it wasn't based on the players who actually came through to help them win. Again, hindsight is 20/20.

 

This year they made the big pitching acquisition, but they have clearly taken a step back offensively dropping further behind a Yankee team that had already become dominant offensively thanks to the addition of Mark Teixeira. This year's team is not built to win. Kotchman and Cameron are not going to get it done.

 

We can agree to disagree I suppose. We probably agree that they need to add one more bat, but whether that needs to happen now or before August is up for debate, and if the team can wait until the trade deadline to make that move and STILL make the playoffs, I'd say it would be a good team.

 

I feel as confident about this team as I did about the team in 2007 and 2008, and moreso than I did about 2009.

[BSN07]

I think this team will be surprisingly good next season. And I really don't get the worry about having Kotchman start the year at 1B. The guy has been a starter and been fairly good. He may not be the typical hitter at 1B, but he plays good defense. And that seems to be what the Sox are trying to do this season. Given the Sox SP and current defensive make up, the Sox need to score around 4 runs per game. Which doesn't seem to unreasonable for the current offense. And It doesn't seem to unreasonable to think the Sox rotation averages a 4 ERA.

 

All I'm really getting at is Kotchman is not bad enough with the bat to under value's what he provides defensively enough to make the Sox break the Luxury Tax right now. I really think the Sox will be going with a rotation of players between the 1B/3B/DH spots. When Lowell sits or DH's, Youk at 3B, Kotchman/Martinez at 1B. Which I think will work well to keep Lowell healthier and still have a lineup capable of scoring some runs.

 

And if it isn't they will most likely be someone available at the TDL to help boost production. Unless Hoyer blinks in the Agon discussions, everyone should be ready to back this team as constructed.

[riverside sluggers]

I still think they are favorites for the wild card. Steve Buckley on Sports Tonight several nights ago was getting too much heated up about the offense, saying "god this is a 4th place team". Put down that reefer there buddy haha

[Dipre]

And I really don't get the worry about having Kotchman start the year at 1B. The guy has been a starter and been fairly good. He may not be the typical hitter at 1B' date=' but he plays good defense. And that seems to be what the Sox are trying to do this season. [/b']

 

All I'm really getting at is Kotchman is not bad enough with the bat to under value's what he provides defensively enough to make the Sox break the Luxury Tax right now.

 

First base is an offensive position. You can find decent defenders who are good with the stick a dime-a-dozen, and Kotchman would be the main reason why you could say the team has taken a "Step back" offensively, and finding a decent 1B option is both not difficult but very important. If they can't trade Lowell, is see him manning 1B next year.

[a700hitter]

They may have had the best 3-4 combination in the game, but in 2006 A-Rod went 36/121 (.914) and Giambi went 37/113 (.971). The Red Sox had two guys who were slightly better, but nobody else with an OPS over .900.

 

You're putting too much weight on the 3-4 combination.

 

Before the 2007 season a number of people here didn't have a hard time saying the Yankees were better on paper than the Sox were. http://www.talksox.com/forum/talk-sox-forum/8544-red-sox-will-finish-3rd-al-east-6.html

Did you read this thread before you posted this link? At the start of the season, there wasn't a single Sox fan who posted negatively about the Sox upcoming 2007 chances in that thread--- not one. The Thread was started by Gom as a trolling attempt.

 

You weren't writing them down as favorites at the time. All of your praise for how well constructed they were are just revisionist history. At the time you thought Pedroia was average at best and you were convinced that Youkilis was nothing special at all. At the time you didn't think Matsuzaka was the best pitcher available, you thought he was a huge risk.

 

If you thought they were favorites on paper it is only coincidental, because it wasn't based on the players who actually came through to help them win. Again, hindsight is 20/20.

Again, please knock it off with telling my what I think today and what you think I thought 3 years ago. I was very very happy that the Sox had been very aggressive in the off season. They did what needed to be done, and it was a welcome change from the 2004 and 2005 off seasons when they went on the cheap. I didn't think Pedroia needed to be anything but average for the Sox to be successful in 2007. My concern was that they had no backup plan if Pedroia blew up. My exact stated concern was that after building a team to win now (2007) and after spending all that money that they did not have a Plan B for second base in case the kid didn't pan out. If he was average, I thought they would be alright. Please stop telling people what they think and what they thought. We'll tell you what we think. Remember you thought Wily Mo Pena and Chris Duncan would be a good OF tandem that you thought had a realistic chance of combining for 55 HRs and 160 RBI.

 

I feel as confident about this team as I did about the team in 2007 and 2008' date=' and moreso than I did about 2009.[/quote']Unless, they make some additional moves to strengthen the offense, I think this Red Sox team is weaker than the 2007 squad, and they will be competing against a Yankee team that is far stronger than the 2007 Yankees.

[a700hitter]

I think this team will be surprisingly good next season. And I really don't get the worry about having Kotchman start the year at 1B. The guy has been a starter and been fairly good. He may not be the typical hitter at 1B, but he plays good defense. And that seems to be what the Sox are trying to do this season. Given the Sox SP and current defensive make up, the Sox need to score around 4 runs per game. Which doesn't seem to unreasonable for the current offense. And It doesn't seem to unreasonable to think the Sox rotation averages a 4 ERA.

 

All I'm really getting at is Kotchman is not bad enough with the bat to under value's what he provides defensively enough to make the Sox break the Luxury Tax right now. I really think the Sox will be going with a rotation of players between the 1B/3B/DH spots. When Lowell sits or DH's, Youk at 3B, Kotchman/Martinez at 1B. Which I think will work well to keep Lowell healthier and still have a lineup capable of scoring some runs.

 

And if it isn't they will most likely be someone available at the TDL to help boost production. Unless Hoyer blinks in the Agon discussions, everyone should be ready to back this team as constructed.

Kotchman isn't as talented as Doug Mientkievicz. That's why I am negative about him.

[Dojji]

I think this team will be surprisingly good next season. And I really don't get the worry about having Kotchman start the year at 1B. The guy has been a starter and been fairly good. He may not be the typical hitter at 1B, but he plays good defense. And that seems to be what the Sox are trying to do this season. Given the Sox SP and current defensive make up, the Sox need to score around 4 runs per game. Which doesn't seem to unreasonable for the current offense. And It doesn't seem to unreasonable to think the Sox rotation averages a 4 ERA.

 

All I'm really getting at is Kotchman is not bad enough with the bat to under value's what he provides defensively enough to make the Sox break the Luxury Tax right now. I really think the Sox will be going with a rotation of players between the 1B/3B/DH spots. When Lowell sits or DH's, Youk at 3B, Kotchman/Martinez at 1B. Which I think will work well to keep Lowell healthier and still have a lineup capable of scoring some runs.

 

And if it isn't they will most likely be someone available at the TDL to help boost production. Unless Hoyer blinks in the Agon discussions, everyone should be ready to back this team as constructed.

 

This is why I'm worried about Kotchman. you CAN form an argument for why he could start, but the fact is that for a team like Boston, he shouldn't start unless the cupboard is bare -- which it isn't.

[BSN07]

This is why I'm worried about Kotchman. you CAN form an argument for why he could start' date=' but the fact is that for a team like Boston, he shouldn't start unless the cupboard is bare -- which it isn't.[/quote']

 

Considering their lack of desire to go over the Luxury tax, the cupboard is bare outside of Agon.

 

@a700

 

Kotchman and Doug are comparable IMO. Kotchman is a somewhat better hitter. Doug is somewhat better with the glove. Pretty much evens out IMO.

 

I'm not saying Kotchman is the ideal starting 1B. But it could be a lot worse and it should be ok to start the season.

[Dipre]

I'm not saying Kotchman is the ideal starting 1B. But it could be a lot worse and it should be ok to start the season.

 

It really couldn't.

 

And also, i don't buy the FO's unwillingness to go over the luxury tax if they were contemplating Bay and are still talking to Beltre.

[a700hitter]

Considering their lack of desire to go over the Luxury tax, the cupboard is bare outside of Agon.

 

@a700

 

Kotchman and Doug are comparable IMO. Kotchman is a somewhat better hitter. Doug is somewhat better with the glove. Pretty much evens out IMO.

 

I'm not saying Kotchman is the ideal starting 1B. But it could be a lot worse and it should be ok to start the season.

At this point the numbers don't back you up. I'll leave the door open a crack for Kotchman because he is only 27, and he could surprise us, but I am not counting on it. As for Cameron, at age 37 there are no surprises, and his stick is a big, big downgrade.

[Dipre]

At this point the numbers don't back you up. I'll leave the door open a crack for Kotchman because he is only 27' date=' and he could surprise us, but I am not counting on it. As for Cameron, at age 37 there are no surprises, and his stick is a big, big downgrade.[/quote']

 

That's why you get a 1B who can actually hit. That way you make up for Cameron's downgrade at LF if you couple that with a full season of V-Mart and Scutaro, you can more or less count on an offense that would be near 2009 levels.

[a700hitter]

Agreed. I eagerly await the hitting first baseman, but I don't think we are getting one. People are getting used to the notion of Casey Kotchman who I hear can scale 10 foot walls to catch flyballs. The FO will do some minor tinkering, but nothin major will happen between now ad April. If this team catches a bunch of breaks and everything goes right and the Yankee spring training bus rolls down an embankment, we are good enough to go all the way. More realistically, they'll be looking for a bat at the trading deadline and they might actually get one. However, he'll be more like an old Gante Bichette than Adrian Gonzalez.

[Red Foreman]

The tide has turned with regard to the Yankees. The Red Sox were the standard and the team to beat until last year, but that changed drastically last season. After the weather turned warm and the Yankees kicked it into gear, the Sox went 1 and 9 against the Yankees in 2009, and the Yankees looked dominant doing it.

 

Without being a homer, I can't sit here and honestly evaluate the Red Sox as a team that can compete with and beat the Yankees in 2010 with the current personnel. The Yankees are much better than the Sox offensively, and the pitching is very close. Whoever has the better bullpen will have the better pitching, because the rotations are very close. At the end of last season, the bullpen edge went to the Yankees, and I think they have the better bullpen personnel at this point too.

 

 

I think the Sox rotation is quite a bit better.

[Dipre]

We don't have to beat the Yankees in the regular season. In the post-season ,given the current state of the Sox' pitching , without being a homer, i can sit here and say that the Sox can beat the Yankees in a best-of-seven series. We have to make it to the post-season, and as currently constructed, the Sox can make it there.

[example1]

We don't have to beat the Yankees in the regular season. In the post-season ' date='given the current state of the Sox' pitching , without being a homer, i can sit here and say that the Sox can beat the Yankees in a best-of-seven series. We have to make it to the post-season, and as currently constructed, the Sox can make it there.[/quote']

 

Actually, we have to beat them in the off-season, the pre-season, the regular-season and the post-season. If they aren't constructing themselves so they can beat the Yankees at every turn then they're not doing their job. Also, I agree with a700, I don't think Dante Bichette can help this team and I'm pretty sure the FO is more interested in making every last dollar than in actually winning the WS. That has been shown time and time again. Anyone who disagrees is just buying the propaganda.

[Spudboy]

Actually' date=' we have to beat them in the off-season, the pre-season, the regular-season and the post-season. If they aren't constructing themselves so they can beat the Yankees at every turn then they're not doing their job. Also, I agree with a700, I don't think Dante Bichette can help this team and [b']I'm pretty sure the FO is more interested in making every last dollar than in actually winning the WS. That has been shown time and time again. Anyone who disagrees is just buying the propaganda.[/b]

 

Wow. I can't believe you are saying this. I agree, though.

[yankees228]

At ex1...

 

Regarding the 2007 season: First off, Giambi wasn't the number three hitter. Second, the Yankees' lineup was better top to bottom, there is no disputing that. But Ortiz and Manny were both coming up 1,000+ OPS seasons. I believe those two were the cornerstone of the Red Sox success this past decade, and with Manny gone and Ortiz not the same hitter, I know longer look at the Red Sox the same.

 

Regarding the 2004 ALCS: What breaks did they get? I count one. Other than that, like a700 said, the better team woke up and won four straight games. I mean, just look at the Yankees' starting rotation going into that series...

 

Regarding the current state of the teams: I admit, the gap is not huge, but I do think the Yankees enjoy an advantage, even a slight one, over the Red Sox that they haven't enjoyed in past years. I think this advantage stems from the 3-4 combination in the lineup, and the back end of the bullpen.

[The_Destroyah]

http://www.talksox.com/forum/talk-sox-forum/8544-red-sox-will-finish-3rd-al-east-6.html

 

This is my prediction. I will eat crow if they do not. However, if they do, you shall all pay homage.

 

I figure 86 wins for the Red Sox.

 

lol. I love reading this post with the beauty of hindsight, and Gom thinks he isn't a troll.

[example1]

At ex1...

 

Regarding the 2007 season: First off, Giambi wasn't the number three hitter. Second, the Yankees' lineup was better top to bottom, there is no disputing that.

 

This is all that we were discussing, no? Whether Giambi was the #3 hitter or not doesn't matter in the slightest (unless we're working under the assumption that the only thing that matters is the team with the better 3-4 hitter).

 

But Ortiz and Manny were both coming up 1,000+ OPS seasons. I believe those two were the cornerstone of the Red Sox success this past decade, and with Manny gone and Ortiz not the same hitter, I know longer look at the Red Sox the same.

 

When Rivera and Jeter and Posada and Pettitte are no longer on the club nobody will look at the Yankees the same either. How old is Rivera again?

 

Regarding the 2004 ALCS: What breaks did they get? I count one. Other than that, like a700 said, the better team woke up and won four straight games. I mean, just look at the Yankees' starting rotation going into that series...

 

The first one that comes to mind is the ground rule double that took a run off the board, but I think its a pretty big break that the Sox came back from 4 down for the first time in the history of baseball. That's not something they could expect to happen more than once.

 

Also, I should have stated before that your previous post talked about comparing the teams "before the 04 ALCS", which I should have addressed before. I was talking about teams on paper before the season started. Before the 04 ALCS I would have said that the Sox stood a good chance (though I wouldn't have said they were favorites, especially not after some of the epic head-to-head matches from the 04 season and the residual hangover from the devistating loss in 03). Comparable teams, but the Sox weren't favorites in my eyes.

 

Regarding the current state of the teams: I admit, the gap is not huge, but I do think the Yankees enjoy an advantage, even a slight one, over the Red Sox that they haven't enjoyed in past years. I think this advantage stems from the 3-4 combination in the lineup, and the back end of the bullpen.

 

Which past years? You don't think the Yankees had an edge in 2009? They won the division in 03, 04, 05, 06, and 09, didn't they? They had a 2 year lul (baesd on a s***** rotation and under performances by highly paid idiots), not some sustained period of the Sox being the better team by far.

[yankees228]

The Red Sox had a 3-4 that could almost carry their entire team for stretches. That advantage, in my opinion, can transcend an entire team. It's the best one I ever saw, and, I think it was one of the main reasons for their success. It didn't put the Red Sox lineup on par with the Yankees lineup, but it narrowed the gap significantly, and when you take into account other aspects of the two teams, I think they're relatively even.

 

I realize that when Rivera and Jeter leave the Yankees will no longer be the same team. How is that relevant?

 

The ground rule double is the break I was referring to. Sure, coming back from 3-0 was unprecedented, but that doesn't make it a break. When you consider both teams, I think the bigger fluke is that the Yankees won three games in a row, rather than the Red Sox winning four games in a row.

 

Also, I realize we were comparing teams before the season started. I never said the Red Sox had a far better team going into any of those seasons. Actually, I never even said they had a better team. I said the teams were comparable. Even going into 2009 I didn't think the Yankees had a decided advantage. The Red Sox had a huge advantage in the bullpen, and (I've argued this point numerous times following this season) people tend to forget the state of the Yankees' lineup heading into the year. There was a lot of talk, which I agreed with, that there was only one guarantee in the Yankees' lineup (Teixeira).

[jacksonianmarch]

The Ortiz-Manny 3-4 was one of the best of all time for a short period of time. And it made that entire lineup go. Theo put a bunch of tough outs in the lineup around those two and essentially funnelled baserunners into the 3-4 power machine and generated sick amounts of runs. Plus, those two guys reached base so much that the 5, 6, and 7 guys got a lot of easy ribbies because of the .400+ OBPs of 2 consecutive hitters. Losing that dynamic duo to trade and age is a big reason why the sox were less consistent offensively last yr. The numbers were solid, but they couldnt do anything against good pitching and really struggled for long stretches, then would massacre a couple teams to get their runs up. I showed the numbers in a previous post. Over the last 3 months, the sox had something like 6-8 more games than NYY where they scored 3 or less runs but had 4 more games of 7 or more runs. They were a big time hit or miss offense

[SoxSport]

I think Epstein made a smart decision going with Lackey and Cameron when he did. You have to work fast or players get committed to other teams. Bay and Holliday weren't ready to sign when the Red Sox had openings, so they went in a different direction while they could.

 

As far as reconsidering Bay, I don't think it was practical for them in terms of who they had signed and how much money they had spent. Bay fell in the Mets lap--it doesn't look like there was any competition. The NY media has been trying to put a good face on the Mets' signing, but I would agree more with Passant on Yahoo Sports that it wasn't a great signing. Bay would have fit better in Boston or at least the AL for obvious reasons. But the Mets always feel compelled to do something.

 

With respect to Holliday, by the way, the Cardinals now appear to be in the same situation as the Mets--bidding against themselves--unless Boras has the Yankees up his sleeve. You can bet he is keeping them tuned in.

 

The Red Sox have a lot of flexibility right now to go in different directions.

[SoxSport]

On this Red Sox vs Yankees thing, it has ALWAYS been about pitching. Even when the Yankees had Raschi, Reynolds and Lopat, and the Red Sox had only Parnell. The Yankees always have hitting, but their pitching slipped early in the decade because they signed too many older FA pitchers and didn't develop any studs in their farm system. They won this past year because of Sabathia and, in the playoffs, Burnett.

 

The Red Sox suffered mainly last year in their starting pitching. The horrible starts of DiceK, Beckett and Lester plus all those gambles Theo signed that failed. What saved them early from worse was Wakefield. I don't expect the pitching to get off to a slow start this year.

 

I would add that Francona may have to play some small ball this year on the road, which he is not used to. They were not good on the road last year, but their pitching wasn't that good to compensate for the expected dropoff in hitting. Francona is accustomed to sitting back and waiting for the hits to fall, but that could change if they don't add any more hitting.

[Dipre]

Wow. I can't believe you are saying this. I agree' date=' though.[/quote']

 

That was sarcasm.

[jacksonianmarch]

On this Red Sox vs Yankees thing, it has ALWAYS been about pitching. Even when the Yankees had Raschi, Reynolds and Lopat, and the Red Sox had only Parnell. The Yankees always have hitting, but their pitching slipped early in the decade because they signed too many older FA pitchers and didn't develop any studs in their farm system. They won this past year because of Sabathia and, in the playoffs, Burnett.

 

The Red Sox suffered mainly last year in their starting pitching. The horrible starts of DiceK, Beckett and Lester plus all those gambles Theo signed that failed. What saved them early from worse was Wakefield. I don't expect the pitching to get off to a slow start this year.

 

I would add that Francona may have to play some small ball this year on the road, which he is not used to. They were not good on the road last year, but their pitching wasn't that good to compensate for the expected dropoff in hitting. Francona is accustomed to sitting back and waiting for the hits to fall, but that could change if they don't add any more hitting.

 

 

Pitching is very important and becomes more important as the postseason looms. But the O is incredibly important over 162 games and I think NY's consistent offensive output was the biggest reason for winning the division.

[yankees228]

Pitching is very important and becomes more important as the postseason looms. But the O is incredibly important over 162 games and I think NY's consistent offensive output was the biggest reason for winning the division.

 

I think there were four main things that changed in the second half of the season. A-Rod was finally healthy and producing, which seems to make the entire lineup go. Sabathia was dominant. Pettitte had an excellent second half. Hughes solidified the back end of the bullpen. They pulled away in the second half because of a combination of all those things.