JoeBrady
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Everything posted by JoeBrady
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My philosophy is that you have to earn your payback early, since you are unlikely get anything later. Since he joined the Padres, he is among the lowest ranked SS irt to fielding. And he has a 104 OPS+. Even disregarding the fact that they have to pay him until he is 40, it still is a weak contract.
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That's fine. My wagers are always directed to charities, but no biggie.
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I not only agree 100%, I cannot even consider the possibility that the RS don't agree 100%. This isn't like 2022-2024, when our chances were slim, even assuming we'd make the playoffs. Even last year, when I'd have traded for Naylor, we still had poor odds of playoff success with Crochet being our only SP. Assuming Crochet comes back, e might have the best pitching in BB. Over the past 28 days, which is a decent sample size, Suarez, Gray, Tolle and Early have a 2.30 ERA, and Chapman, Whitlock, and Slaten have a 0.41 ERA.
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I'm thinking an actual wager where the odds are the equivalent of us having a 25% chance. I bet that we make the playoffs with the appropriate odds.
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Early Trade deadline deals the selling Sox should make
JoeBrady replied to southpaw777's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Bregman is on pace for 12.7 HRs/600 ABs. -
You gotta get a +1 for that one.
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It would be two separate wagers. 25% on this year, and 33% in 2027.
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On the first part, we can use wRC+ by FG.
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Deleted-Duplicate
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With a little research, I can probably find another 1000 or so. I'll start with Story, and now I'm down to 999 left.
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You seem like an honorable guy, so I'll take that bet I expect you'll regret.
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The idea behind aging isn't that everyone stops playing. It is that they decline. I'd gladly make two serious wagers. First is that Judge's production is worse in two years. Second is that Judge's production in two years is still very good.
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Again, using a sample size of 1, with a 1st ballot HOF, does affect my analysis whatsoever. But it is worth noting that his wRC+ has fallen from 220 to 204 to 171 over the past two years. So even HOF players will get old and decline.
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We are only committed for one more year.
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They acquired Wells (32), Hamilton (32), Pujols (32), Upton (30), Cozart (32), and Rendon (30). At those ages, you should expect very few good seasons. From 2025, the numbers of players with 2+ fWAR, by age: 33 5 34 3 35 3 36 0 37 0
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I agree with all this. My analysis takes into account the standard aging declines. And the cost is not cheap, but after including Story and Yoshida, it is not overly expensive. And like you said, I'm not in love with these two players, though Chapman was a guy we should've pursued at one point. But mostly, this is a team that is primed for a move. Assuming Crochet returns, this is probably the best rotation we've ever had. We have to support them, no doubt in my mind.
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While there is merit to the suggestion that we will not land some big FAs if we stick to age requirements, I just don't see that as a negative. The Angels spent a decade or so signing good players that had already turned 30. Sometimes you'll get lucky, but not very often. I'd much prefer to overpay for the Harper types that will give you 6-7 good years before they start to decline.
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In a decidedly non-scientific analysis, I took a look at all the players from 2025, with an fWAR of 2.0 or higher, age 33-36. There were 11 players. Only 2 had improvements in their wRC+, while 9 declined. The two that improved, Diaz and Contreras, improved by 8 points each. The 9 that declined had declines that were much, much higher.
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I saw a documentary on that with someone named Dorothy, and her four unusual friends.
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Early Trade deadline deals the selling Sox should make
JoeBrady replied to southpaw777's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I mentioned that earlier. I doubt we will be trading away anyone, but Gray and Chapman are the only guys worth mentioning. -
Sloppy by KC not getting the lead runner.
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Horrible challenge. The pitch missed by almost 3 inches, and the count was already 3-0. It would be a bad challenge even at 3-2, but more understandable.
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Yup, normally, I'd shy away from these deals, but we're substituting a .491 & .547 with two guys that should be in the .725-.750 range. If you substituted Story and Durbin's OPS with a .725 each our adjusted OPS would be .706, good for 14th,
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My back-of-the-crayon calcs, including 2026, is $169M for Adames, $125M for Chapman, less about $86M for Story + Yoshida, netting to $208M. If one were to normalize Adames as a 4 WAR player this year, Chapman as a 2.8, and reducing their WAR by 0.3/year, we would net 30.5 WAR for the $208M, which is fair. If one were to go with an annual reduction of 0.4/year, that reduces their contractual WAR to 28. And I'd be okay with that as well. The biggest issue would be their normalized WAR. If it is not 4.0 and 2.8, that reduces the value even more. But Adames is only 30, so I am okay there, and Chapman gets a fair amount of value from his glove, so that should be okay. I'd also throw in an analysis of their past four year. Adames has averaged .753 OPS (108+) with very little variance. Chapman has a .768 (117+) with almost no variance. Both drop-offs are extreme outliers. Bottom line-These two fit perfectly and we have a lot of payroll coming off the books. I'd make this move and not have to think very hard about it.
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I would do that. And it might not be too far off.
