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JoeBrady

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Everything posted by JoeBrady

  1. JoeBrady
    KC-Lane Thomas (modest interest) LAA-Adell Lefty-masher, with 1.5 years left, 2 HRs in 15 Fenway ABs (moderate interest) Cincy-Steer (a lot of interest) SF-Arraez-Perfect fit BA-Ward-Hitting a little better recently, does well against lefties BA-Our old friend Tyler O'Neill. .876 since he start of June. Lefty masher. Good Fenway history. Will need BA to kick in serious salary. These include only teams that I deem to be sellers at this point. That list should enlarge in a couple of weeks. A lot depends on price. Thomas and Adell might cost little more than salary relief. Steer and Arraez will cost us large, but non-premium prospects. Ward and TON might require a couple of lesser prospect, more quantity than quality.
  2. JoeBrady
    Just to play devil's advocate, his hitting improved since they gave up the catching experiment. Between 2024-25, he averaged .254 with 20 HRs and a 136/116 K/W. I never expect much from career prospects, but someone had mentioned Holt, and I'd be pretty happy with that.
  3. JoeBrady
    We're making this too complicated. There is no reason to trade for an SP or a CF. Just find a good RH DH/LF. Or a good OBP SS to lead off, if they exist. Don't worry about extending players. Most long-term contracts don't work out. And the big-name players that we want? Everyone wants them, including their own team. And in this case, look for teams looking to sell. MN is ahead of us in the standings.
  4. JoeBrady
    Pena will be 30.5 years old at the start of his next contract. Not an ideal age for a long-term contract.
  5. JoeBrady
    Would Buxton be happy at DH or LF?
  6. JoeBrady
    It's bad down here in NY. I went for a walk I wanted to get in before it started raining. Turns out that those weren't rain clouds. And the smell wasn't someone BBQing. This feels like far worse than it was a few years ago. It's dark outside now.
  7. JoeBrady
    There were only 3 of those in BB last year. One is Springer, who is unlikely to ever revert. The other two are Judge and Ramirez.
  8. JoeBrady
    What has been speculated is that Houston might be moving to get under the cap. I assume Houston is picking up most of McCullers salary, so they still need to cut payroll. Pena and Paredes both make $9M+. That might Houston more amenable to moving them.
  9. JoeBrady
    Will he hit well enough to be a premium prospect at 2B or 3B?
  10. JoeBrady
    Walker is a ghost. He's not being traded. ed: I looked at the top-30 FG players by wOBA, and the only player that might be on the block is Greene. I doubt that Detroit would trade him, and they already have McGonigle at SS.
  11. JoeBrady
    We don't have the farm for a 2.5+ premium player, unless the other team is moving salary. The guy you are describing might be Abrams, and even if he were to be traded, it would cost Arias, Witherspoon+. How many teams even trade premium players with 2.5+? If this was a 1st place team, I'd feel differently. But we are aiming at a WC, with three on the road, with no certainty of having Crochet back.
  12. JoeBrady
    This is my typical apropos of nothing, but according to B-R: We have 17.9 bWAR on offense, of which, 7.9 comes from newbies. We have 8.1 bWAR, on pitching, of which, 5.1 comes from newbies. That's exactly 50%.
  13. JoeBrady
    I'd go for that in a heartbeat, but I don't think the A's would. Besides the value issue, I think the A's still plan on De Vries as their future SS.
  14. JoeBrady
    My guess is a slight improvement in our RH options. And if he doesn't hit over the next two weeks, or maybe even if he does, he'll be replaced.
  15. JoeBrady
    I don't know why they would think Paredes is still a target. He's unlikely to play 3B, unless Durbin slumps. He can't play SS. He's had 14 starts at 2B since 2022. And I am not sure how much of an upgrade he is over Romy.
  16. JoeBrady
    My guess is that Bello is will fill a 3-4 inning role to rest the kids. If you are trying to restrcit innings, what way than have the rookies throw 3-4 innings/twice thru the rotation and have Bello throw 3-4 innings.
  17. JoeBrady
    FWIW, I take all off-season trade talk with a grain of salt. I doubt any GM will tell a reporter which players he is discussing and for what? My take hasn't changed in 50 years. GMs will spread disinformation to writers who just want a story to print. And they will give a heads-up to their favorite writers, but only after a deal is 99% certain.
  18. JoeBrady
    If you remove Bello, we go from being 3rd by a large margin to 3rd by a smaller margin. But still 3rd. But more importantly, our 1-4 will be Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten and Guerrero. I don't think I'd want to pay a large-ish price to improve that. And the 5-8 is Weissert, Watson, Moran and Bello. And I don't think I'd like to pay a lot to improve our 5th inning chances.
  19. JoeBrady
    That's the crux for a lot of these trades. With Lindor, it'll be 5 years. Out-performing at age 33 is difficult, so what are the chances of doing so for 5 years? The odds of finding someone with a 7.5 cumulative fWAR for years 35-37 is a unicorn. In the past ten years, there is Justin Turner with a 7.7,and Nelson Cruz, but I'm not including him on the PEDs issue. Even assuming Lindor is THE unicorn, we'd need 10 WAR from him the next two seasons. Again, I'm not necessarily opposed to adding him, but just not at that price. Just imho, I'm in the camp of acquiring a 1-2 year type of player. I think some of the guys mention, Arraez, Steer, Ward, Adell, can supply a lot of value without a lot of l/t costs.
  20. JoeBrady
    Like everything else, I can change my mind tomorrow, but I would not focus on an RP. We have a crowded and good BP. The return of Sandoval pushing Bello into bulk reliever changes the dynamics.
  21. JoeBrady
    I'd be shocked if the Mets traded him. They'll trade pieces, but trading Lindor would be an act of surrender.
  22. JoeBrady
    Is Cro as good as Romy? Over the past three years, Romy has a 117 OPS+ v Cro's 99.
  23. JoeBrady
    I'd love to see Arraez at the top of the lineup, as in, mi gusto. Platoon Romy with Yoshida improves DH. Let Romy take a few turns at 2nd against select lefties. Current lead-off OBP/OPS .288/.638 Arraez OBP/OPS .369/.829 Sometimes I will argue against a move because it's high cost v marginal improvement, like Alonso v Duran (pre-season) at DH. My thinking is that someone will outbid us because their need is greater. In this case, does anyone need a quality lead-off guy more than us? And I know some folks prefer HRs, and I see the hole. But I'd make a modest wager that Arraez' lead-off skills would help out as much, or more, than someone like Devers.
  24. JoeBrady
    It's pretty difficult to compare roles. DC is still mostly a lefty specialist, while Watson is a multi-inning type guy.
  25. JoeBrady
    It's enough where I could shrug my shoulders. There is every chance that he has entered his permanent decline, but he is declining from a 5.8 bWAR last year. He also only missed 15 games in the four previous seasons. Does anyone know if he is a good clubhouse fit? Or a good Boston fit? Weak Fenway production? Blocks Arias? I'm not convinced either way, and I think we could do well pursuing smaller pieces without the longer term costs in $$$ and/or prospects. Adell, and others have mentioned Ward and Steer. And MLBR mentioned the have gotten calls on Steer. Hopefully we are one of them.
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