JoeBrady

You become more and more disturbed by the day. You are in a complete meltdown.

They were 2nd in Py W/L last year. Tough to predict how their rotation will recover.

While the depth has weakened, the control has increased exponentially. 34 years between 6 position players, and that doesn't KC or Casas. If those two guys, plus Arias pan out, while highly unlikely, we won't need to draft a position players for 3-4 years (some artistic license taken). Even the pitching, which is usually less projectable, has Crochet, Bello, Tolle, Early and Witherspoon thru 2030 and beyond.

I've done some low-level stuff on that. The biggest issue is trying to create a model that I like. In 2025, I calculated the standard deviation for the top-10 scoring teams relative to HRs, and calculated the standard deviation for the top-10 scoring teams relative to OBP. It's only one year, but the STD for Runs-HRs was 4.98, while the STD for Runs-OBP was only 3.02. On the HR side, the largest variances were the RS (7th in scoring and 15th in HRs) and MIL (3rd in scoring and 22nd in HRs). Runs HR Runs OBP NYY 1 1 1 2 LAD 2 2 2 5 MIL 3 22 3 3 TOR 4 11 4 1 CHC 5 6 5 11 ARI 6 8 6 7 BOS 7 15 7 8 PHI 8 9 8 4 NYM 9 5 9 6 SEA 10 3 10 10 4.98272 3.023243

Who could it be? It feels like is has to be from Boras. It won't be from the RS unless someone is out to undermine Breslow. It could be from Bregman. But unless Bregman is dealing with Breslow directly, then Bregman could only get it from Boras. And Bregman doesn't strike me as someone that would do that. Or it could be from Boras, and he could have motivation(s) to not be entirely truthful. Do you see any other candidates? I have some other Machiavellian theories, but some people already think I'm defending Breslow.

The only ones that could make a contrary report would be Bregman and Breslow. GMs usually don't address issues like this.

Certainly not hurting for cash, but that puts an extra $40M in his pocket. And that's without consideration of Japanese/US tax rates. Some countries won't tax you depending how much of the year you spend abroad. It's probably a non-issue, but it would be worth hiring an accountant to find out.

We won't keep Mayer in AAA any longer. This why you have highly-rated prospects.

No. Shaw had a very good year, but suspiciously low EV and swing speed.

By design. 1 means it the winning team had both a higher OBP & more HRs. 2 means HRs did better, and 3 means OBP did better. It's pretty meaningless since some of these series are 2-game series. But that was the question that was raised.

That's 100% accurate. Can we all agree on what the two problems wre: The Red Sox don't give out no-trade clauses. The RS offered less PV money. Is there a 3rd problem that I am not seeing? On point 1, if this is JH's rule, there is nothing that Breslow can do about that. On point 2, maybe there is some grey area. Like I have mentioned, if there is a $5M difference over the life of the contract, one could argue give in and give him the extra $1M per. If the difference is $4M/year, there is nothing that Breslow can do about that.

He did the same thing with JDM, twice.

I can think of two other reasons. I know that CA is looking to change their tax laws, but if the law is taxing Ohtani on his $2M instead of the PV $42M, then Ohtani is saving about $40M over the course of the contract. This is probably sure to start a fight, but IF Ohtani has a gambling problem, it is POSSIBLE that he feels more comfortable only getting $2M a year in cash.

Why would I want to do that? No one here has 1st, or 2nd, or 3rd hand knowledge of what went on. I fine with believing Bregman objected to the no-trade. What else do we know? If someone can tell me what the RS offered, at least in the ballpark, then we'll know more. But it won't matter. If the CBT offer was $135M/5, then Breslow didn't value Bregman as much as the Cubs.

I have no issue with people deciding which version to believe, but we don't have two versions, and might not have one version. Some guy says he heard that Bregman was displeased with certain facets of the negotiation. Has anyone thought that Bregman might not be dealing directly with Breslow? If that's the case, then it is Boras feeding info to Bregman (which could be untrue), Bregman talking with an alleged MLB insider, who then talked to a reporter.

IMHO, ten years is plenty. Players will want see some money in the bank at some point. But past that, I'd like to see the offer sheet. It is both amounts and duration. Deferring $5M/year for 15 years might be more favorable to the player than deferring $10M/year for 10 years.

Maybe, maybe not. I like camaraderie, but I prefer a strong give and take.

If we got Baty, I'd guess he'd go to 2nd, much like if we got Paredes, but that's guesswork. On the Mets side, my guess is that they platoon him and Vientos at DH. But, just like Paredes, it feels like a waste to platoon a player if you can trade him for a position of need.

1=winning team had both more HRs and higher OBP. 2-winning team had more HRs 3-winning team had higher OBP World Series ALCS 1 NLCS 1 AL Division Series 2 AL Division Series 1 NL Division Series 1 NL Division Series 1 Wild Card Series 1 Wild Card Series 3 Wild Card Series Wild Card Series 1 2024-No pattern on this one.

That's a lot of babbling for this early in the morning.

Someone asked the question about whether it applied to this year's playoffs, so it is only for one year. I can do 2024 as well to see if it is a pattern.

I'd bet that some of that played into Breslow's negotiation. I didn't think there was any chance they'd move Shaw to the bench, and I'd imagine that Breslow felt the same way.

But do we know that? Suarez' contract was heavily backloaded. It doesn't count for CBA, but payments of $10M/$15M/$30/$30M/$35M/$10M probably makes the real-world value something closer to $120M. I think the Bregman offer was probably far higher. But just like my 'discussion' with Drewski, we don't know.

While I disagree with the rule, you either have rules or you don't. The first time you make an exception, then you have to make an exception for everyone.

I might have added 'Bregman is a Cub and Suarez is a Red Sox'. The difference between the two is 0.3 fWAR. At the end of the day, the total amount of WAR generally dictates what your record is.