You know how you are always like we need 10 pitchers because half will get hurt? I think similar rate of injury to position players. So when I see 4 plus hitters, I assume 2 will get hurt, and I dont think a team this lacking in firepower wins 50%. Im also seeing the orioles get better.
Im also exaggerating when I say 78 wins, but right now, unless there are more moves or a big bat breakout, I think we'll be desperate for offense and Bres doesnt have a great track record of trading for it mid-season.
You point to things that were unlucky last year, and sure, there were areas where we had bad luck. But there was some good luck too. Toro/Lowe were huge for us even if they ran out of usefulness, they covered a lot of games unexpectedly. Crochet and Chapman stayed healthy. I would rather lose Gray, Ranger, Oviedo, Bello to injury (all 4) than just Crochet.
I believe in sophmore slumps , so im not sure anthony wont have some growing pains. Mayer too. We dont have Bregman, we dont have devers.
I can see us stepping back this year. Im not sure about it, and I can see it going the other way too (positive season due to positive developments).