drewski6

I wouldnt call you a homer for taking the over on a line that that was designed to get 50% of bets on one side and 50% of people on the other.....Plus the people setting this threshold, Im sure, knew what they are doing.

AND we've used a significant amount of trade chips!

I think its fair to be skeptical and not count on players returning from serious injury, but I also think you cant put ever pitcher who is returning from an injury into one category. Personally, I dont play doctor. I ask doctors and hedge. Because I pay them, right? So instead of just assuming 0 from all of them, I would ask the team doctors what I can expect. And if Dr says should be good to go, I would still feel uncomfy if I have 3 guys like that in my rotation and no depth , for sure. So I would be skeptical too. Generally speaking, not this example. Kutter Crawford is f'ing awesome.

Theres not 50-50 betting on future lines, thats not how that works. Its not like they want half the money to come in on yankees winning ws and half coming in against it. NObody is going to take the latter (at lesat not anything close to 50-50) because its like bet 1100 to win 100. Sports gambling is stupid, dont get me wrong. Gambling is for people who arent smart enough to make millions consulting. I get all that. But the fact that if you make a $100 bet on the NYY you win 1000, and same be on red sox you win 1700 - thats more because of a belief that there is more of a chance of yanks winning it all than us. The gap I wouldnt say is insurmountable, I think the spread reflects this. I dont bet because I trust Vegas to know where the line is. The difference isnt huge. But I cant honestly say that I agree that its neck and neck. I chose my position carefully. The Yankee are one full step ahead of us at present. Not 2 giant leaps, not even one giant leap. But I cant say that I believe that we're neck and neck. I would say in 5 game series theyd prob be 65% likely to take the series, of course, depending on who is healthy.

I agree. But Stanton had a .965 OPS last year and 25 HR in half a season, which really, is better than 30 HR in a full season and his wRC+/SLG are better than what we can expect from anyone we have. I got an "LMAO" when I pointed out that hes prob #5 in projected HRs for them and thats a bit scary considering hes higher than anyone we got. They are a scary team and Max Fried is a very good pitcher. I went to check my biases to see if maybe I could be overrating the Yankees or underrating the Red Sox because I believe that its full stupid to build a team any other way than bats first, but Im open to maybe Im underrating how far pitching can carry you. So I was looking at power rankings and the yankees are consistently 2nd or 3rd and for us the highest Ive seen is for us is 6th and the lowest Ive seen for us 11th. I think we can catch them, but I dont think its realistic to present us as practical equals to them at this point in time. I think we are a T2 team and the yankees are one of like 4 or 5 T1 teams.

Its like dodgers - 20%, yanks 10%, Jays 8%, M's 8%, Mets 8%, Braves 7%, Sox 6%, Phils 6%, Cubs 5%, Os 3%...

Right now every major betting site is giving 60% higher payouts to future bets on the red sox to win ws (compared to the yankees) because all of these sites agree the yankees are 60% more likely to win the WS than the red sox are. Its true that lines move, but they dont move this much, and its not like theres billions of dollars in WS future bets in early Feb. The lines havent moved much, and they will eventually, but not as much as you think. The vegas balancing is small, its usually like moving a spread from 4 to 3 because a lot of money came in at one side. Its also kinda rare. Future line like this will barely move due to money coming in. Of course, if the red sox are in the ALCS with a 2-0 game advantage, you wont be able to bet 100 to win 1600 like you can right now for a WS win. So the line will move at some point, but it hasnt yet (at all). The current lines are from paid handicappers who are estimating chances. They could be wrong. Unforeseen stuff like Cole hitting a snag coming back and Judge snapping a leg can happen. But right now, the consensus is the yankees have about 66% better chance to win world series than red sox (its like 10% to 6%). There is a significant gap between the red sox and the best teams in baseball, but we are in the second tier. Baseball is just like that in 2026. A few teams are well out in front. We are not one. We are better than most, however.

If they outscored em in the playoffs series I was wrong to say never a threat. It felt that way, but thats probably because LAD were returning champs, but that shouldnt be considered. I was wrong to say Phils were never a threat and now that you mention it , I do recall them having a chance.

They seek to get 50-50 when the money pours in, thats not whats happening here. And no , the #2 best team and the #7 best team are not close. We are 50-50 to make the playoffs, long shots to win the world series. They are the #2 WS favorites.

USA today, Fangraphs, all 4 major betting sites, Vegas, MLB.COM power rankings all have the yankees ahead of us to enter the season. They are a T1 team, we are a T2 team. We are a good team but they are more likely to get to WS than us by a 2-1 margin

The Phillies had 4 top 30 NL pitchers last year to the dodgers 1 and were never a threat to beat the dodgers.

Ill give you Contreras but hes never done it. But a lot of that is because he was catching. I absolutely will not give you Contreras while you LMAO on Stanton because in 2026, Stanton is much more likely to get to 30. He hit 24 last year in 75 games and hes a stronger person and they are roughly the same age. YOu are doing some twisting and turning ,but you have to because they return a collective 27 homerun seasons to our 0. Max Fried was excellent last year, Rodon isnt as hurt as you think, and Gray isnt young either. According to Vegas: Red Sox are seventh most likely team to win WS, NYY are 2nd.

Schmidt is their #6, I wouldnt bet against Cole and Rodon is minor hurt. Plus they have a lot of hitting. I dont think we're close to them, personally. I do think we're better than the Rangers, Tigers, Guardians, Astros, Orioles. I think us and the Jays have a 1/2 step up on these teams. But I think that we're a full step behind the Ms and Yanks. Doesnt mean we cant finish better, will just need injury luck, an internal breakout, and hopefully a big bat added in-season to replace whoever is slouching/hurt.

Judge, Jazz, Grisham hit 30+ last year, bellinger had 29 last year and has two 30 HR seasons in his past. Stanton got hurt but still has 30 HR pop, in 1/2 season last year he dinged 24. This doesnt include Ben Rice who is expected to have his first 30 HR season this year or Goldschmidt who isnt as washed as you think (but too washed to get to 30). If you add up all the 30 (or more) homerun seasons that the yankees players have had in their past its like 27 total 30 HR seasons (but that does inlcude Goldy, which may be unfair). No player in the red sox organization has ever had a 30 HR season.

I think Henry gets too much blame, and Bloom and Breslow not enough (blame).

I think the Yankees and O's will certainly be considerably better than last year, so you have to factor that in. In fact, USA today placing the Red Sox fourth stated the RS got better but not as much better as the Os who they expect to leapfrog us into third (but its close). The Yankees have a lot of pitchers coming back from injury and return something like 6 30HR threats. To me, we'll see how much the Jays miss Bichette. It will come down to that, if the Tigers keep Skubal, how the Astros look. I do think Harmony's M's and the Yanks are best teams in AL.

USA Today are projecting 84 wins and a fourth place finish in ALE, tied for 7th in AL (with Astros, also behind Detroit and Rangers). That came out today and includes Durbin (ouch). Fangraphs is projecting 84.5 wins and third place in ALE and 5th in AL. (They are consistent with USA today on Red Sox, but lower on O's , Astros and Rangers). MLB.COM power rankings put us 4th in AL but without standings or record. They are the only source that have us over the Tigers of the three. Personally, I think MLB.COM power rankings are closest. I think that we only trail NYY, Toronto, Mariners but we are a significant step behind them at present. I think we are a small step in front of the AL playoff hopefuls (Orioles, Astros, Rangers, Detroit, Cleveland). I think we are over a coin flip to make the playoffs, and that can improve with any of the three a) better injury luck that the other 7 decent-or-better teams in AL b) in-season acquisitions (e.g. big bat at deadline), c) internal breakouts (like Mayer taking a big step).

Most guys come up relievers get pushed out by failed starters who are still better than the RP prospects at RP'ing. Only rare exceptions (guys who come up relief pitchers, make it to majors and stick as relief pitchers). But if a guy is coming up as a reliever, most of the time that just means "chump" In our case, I suspect very much that we'll have SP overflow into BP. Because we invested in Oviedo and Sandoval and I just cant see the team overlooking that and putting them in AAA or IL just so we can have more actual RP prospects (again, chumps) in the pen (after the big 3 of Chapman, Whitlock (who is a failed SP turned great RP himself) and Slaten). Think like Andrew Miller couldnt make it as a starter but when he became a reliever he was the best reliever. This stuff happens all the time.

Are we sure Siegler is going to make it to the season without having to ride the DFA carousel? I understand the other guy we got in the deal cuz of the lefty splits and Romy being dinged up. Other guy might fill in for Romy, but Im not sure I would keep Siegler on 40 man vs say, Masa

Its what Ive come to expect from Breslow. A lot of bumbling/fumbling/unforced errors but still cobbling together a good (not great) team at the end by just sheer quantity of moves, which I like (well the last part I like). I like the aggression. I like the quantity of moves. I really dislike the roll the same mediocre roster forward year to year because "continuation", its lazy. Too much incumbent advantage in the Bloom years. I like the churn.

Durbin seems like hes a got a few sneaky ways to contribute offensively.

If he, Anthony, and Duran all get to 40 doubles thats power. I know you know this but a lot of people think power is homeruns. Power is more than homeruns. Its driving the ball for extra base hits. When you pull the ball , the point of contact is in front of the plate, vs letting the ball get deep. You can really drive it that way. A lot of people say things like "doubles power" without really understanding what that is, and misuse it as a justification for a weak lineup "when someone says no power, just auto-respond doubles power". But doubles power is an actual something. It comes from early swing decisions, early pitch recognition, not having to sell out for contact, pulling the ball, driving the ball, just with a more line drive swing trajectory. I hate when players go out of their way to not strike out. I dont like that scared approach at the plate. I like attackers, confidence. But I also really like when they arent striking out because they have a good hit tool (actually good at picking up spin early vs waiting until the ball breaks) Sounds like Durbin can be both, and I like that. Because there is a time/place to put the ball in play, and having the legs really helps. But theres also a time (most times) to drive the ball.

Yup. Like Tony Gwynn

Im all about not makig decisions when you dont have to.

It doesnt sound like a lot to me, even for a bench player. 2.0 WAR , which I consider a low-end starting position player / cusp starting position player are getting qualifying offers and like 22m.