drewski6

Regarding this: an aggressive offer is on the table. What do you think that means? Its not 20m/yr. So if Bregman, right now, calls Bres and says "yes" the payroll at that point in time , will be as high as I think it should. Our current payroll + pending offer is quite high. I think where we disagree is what that outstanding offer for Bregman is. I doubt its under 135m.

Point you. Not unreasonable to trade Duran/Rafaela + Early (62-72) and a valero/philips type instead of signing Bregman. Its Early though, its not Tolle or Early. Tolle is a deal breaker for me. Please notice how Duran has 10M excess BTV points then Cedanne despite like 1/3 the control. Thats just an aside.

If it was Marte for Early straight up , i prob do that. BUt I think its more likely Early + Mayer. And that gives me pause when the other option is bregman for 150, and I dont think its crazy to jsut pay him what Alonso and Schwarber got. They are all pretty close to the same FA tier. And this way, we get to keep Early and Mayer.

I did mean his 2018-2019. If after 2019, 25/26 yr old Bregman fell into a time machine and woke up today in 2026, he be a 600m man. But hes not, hes aging with other red flags as well, so hes not a 600m man. But dont expect perfection from a 150m(ish) contract though, cuz thats not the price of perfection.

Correct. There are indeed a few red flags with Bregman. His age, he got hurt last year, his 2025 didnt end great, his 2024 didnt start great And if none of these red flags existed, he would be getting 600m

And if you meant this year, we'll see what Tucker gets. I think hes getting well north of 180m.

Bruh, a t1 FA contract is 600m

I dont think you understand how much KMarte would cost in a trade.

Its a fair point that market value and value to team do not always align. But I dont think that Schwarber and Alonso are so far ahead of Bregman that they're contracts are unfair to use as comparables. Thats kind of negotiations work. If you try to get Bregman for less than 150m, his agent WILL bring up the alonso and schwarber contracts. Bregmans market value is around 150m. If you want him for significantly less, you are just going to have to wait that his market collapses and you get lucky and he comes to you with his tail between his legs because he has 0 offers on the table. Sounds like wishful thinking to me and its more likely to me that either 1) we cross 150m guaranteed and land Bregman or 2) we dont land bregman. The market is the market. And the people who are calling the offer "aggressive" we've heard this and it has been confirmed, know what the market is. And thats 150m. The red sox most likely have a contract offer on the table for bregman around 150-200m. The cubs and Dbacks may also have given him an offer for around these amounts. Its possible he overplays his hand, and it all collapses around him and he has to take an insulting contract, but its so very unlikely. Bregman was the #3 ranked FA behind only Tucker Bo. If he winds up as the #9 highest paid FA, thats a slap in the face.

Bregman may not be an elite player, but hes a tier 2 free-agent looking for tier 2 free agent money. Hes not asking for Soto , Ohtani, Tucker money. Even Cease got 7/210. IF a T2 FA is too rich for us, then we are just not serious.

I believe you are talking about the 244m threshold though. I think that does and should matter. What Im saying is the 264m threshold isnt as consequential. It doesnt make sense to me circle 264 as a number to stay behind. You feel it when you cross 244 (repeater tax triggers), you feel it when you cross 284 (draft pick moves back). But the excess pain you feel when you cross 264 is immaterial. 265 vs 263 is nothing. 285 vs 283 is significant, as is 243 vs 245.

My walk pt on Bregman is 180m, but id go even above that if there are signficant deferrals.

If someone calls you a horse, you punch them in the face. If a second person calls you a horse, you face facts and buy yourself a saddle If it was just one player in the Alsonso/Schwarber/Bregman tier getting 150m, then we could scream overpay. But the second one gets it , kinda locks it in. Thats the market for that tier. Tier 1: Tucker Tier 1.5: Bichette Tier 2: Alonso, Schwarber, Bregman And I think Bregman is slightly above that tier. I honestly thikn its: T1:Tucker T1.5:Bichette T1.75: Breg T2:Alonso,Schwarber

What is Alonso? What is Schwarber? Is Bregman better than Alonso? Is he better than Schwarber? Does he deserve less than what they've secured? TO me, in a world where ALonso and Schwarber are both worth 150m, Bregman is worth slightly more than 150m because over the next 5 yrs, hes prob slightly more WAR than Alonso and slightly more WAR than Schwarber

I didnt say sign Bregman at any cost. I said that we shouldnt be dead-set against a creative contract with buyouts or optouts or some of that kind of stuff.

Like MVP said, this is likely his final contract so I think the real metric hes chasing isnt yrs or AAV, I think its total guaranteed. If 130m for Breg is too much for you after Alonso and Schwarber each got 150m, then breg is too far out of your price range to close the gap with deferrals and option years. I think using deferral and option years (with buyouts) is smart, but the number you have to get over (IMO) is 150, not 130. Hes not taking less than Schwarber and Alonso both. Do not give credit for the team option, only the buyout. Your offer 128/4 with an 8m buyout for yr 5 is 136m guaranteed. Just let him cross 150, he deserves to not get punk'd by ALonso and Schwarber. Let him be (gasp) above them, and find a way to add 20 more dollars , so its 156m guaranteed over 5 with 8-12m of that being in teh buyout.

It makes 0 sense to put a hard stop budget at 264

Yes , slipping over 244 has big consequences , even just 1m because then the next year the % of tax paid after 244 goes up significantly. Slipping over 284 (even just 1m) has moderate consequences (draft picks move back). Slipping over 264m is very little consequences, because unlike the other 2 mentioned thresholds there are no future detriments (higher % next year, or loss of draft picks) beyond just having to pay slightly more that year. Even if you go up to 283.9. Thats an extra 20m above 264, and its taxed at 42% instead of 30% (244-263.9 = 30%, 264-283.9 = 42%) So its an extra 12% on 20m, which is like what? 2.4M The 264m threshhold is barely a thing. The 244m threshhold is major, the 284 is somewhat major, the 264 is not worth sweating.

says you, some of us want the player more than we want contract simplicity

Sure. Agreed. Get creative, use deferrals. Use option years and buyouts and all those other things that facilitate compromise. Offer to buy his house if you have to (like they did with schilling). I think that your idea of adding the option year with a buyout is a good one, but I think your offer is too low. Going by your numbers: $116M/4 with a $24M option and $14M buyout. Basically, $130M/4 I dont think that gets it done. But if we move the option until after year 5 (giving him one extra year) $140/4 with a $25m option and a $15m buyout (basically 155/5)...That MAY get it done.

you pay an extra 12% in tax after crossing the 264m. As a second yr CBT payer, we will pay a 30% tax on 244-264, and an additional 12% is applied after 264m. So if the Red Sox wind up at 275, thats 11m above the 264, and 12% of 11m is what 1.3M? We need to trade players to prevent this 1.3m excess tax? This 264m threshold is very minor. The major ones are 244 and 284, I think people just want to pick a number for a budget.

I told you I would chill, and Ill honor that and not rebut.

Team penalties (draft picks moved back) start at 284. No way we sign Breg and stay under 264 without moving money. And no, im not willing to start making bad trades to get under it. Payroll gonna have to be higher than 264. IF you can get Bregman down to 30m CBT hit, that puts us at 273.44, So the excess charge for being above second threshold (264) will be about 1m (calculated as follows: the only thing the 264 does is increase dollars spent thereafter from a 30% tax to a 42% tax, so if we are at 273(ish) thats 9m above the second like, so that 9m is taxed at 42%, but it would be taxed at 30% if the second threhold never existed) So pretty much that second threshold existing costs an additional 1m. I dont thik its a must be under number. Again, the baseball penalties start at 284. I can see 274 after Breg. And I can see them picking up a reliever for 6 on top and going in at around 280.

Sure but after what year is the option year? After yr 5? Sure. After yr 4? Maybe but the AAV will have to be high. After yr 3? I dont see him taking a 3 yr deal with a team option for yr 4, regardless of AAV or buyout, but I could be wrong. Id offer it , for sure. 3 @ 40 , with enough deferred to make the CBT hit low 30s, opt-out after each year, 4th yr team option at 30m with a 12.5m buyout That would be 132.5 guaranteed but after accounting for deferrals like 112.5 in guaranteed. I know I proposed the 3 yr deal originally, but I was half serious. I dont think any of these get it done. I dont think Bregman sees Schwarb and Alonso pocket 150m guaranteed and settles for less. I think its going to be 5 around 165 (maybe even 6, 190) with significant amount deferred and full no -trade. If youd rather do 4+ team option with large buyout, I think you still need to get above 150m guaranteed. So maybe 4 @35 , but with a team option for yr 5 @ 35 but with a 15m buyout (155m guaranteed), full no trade. Its an offer, Id even call it aggressive. Its not one I jump at if Im him though. Not saying I dont come around and take it, but its not an "OMG, got my bag! LETS GO!" Its a good offer, though.

Anecdotal. Weak. Also, the fact that one person switched suppliers over a miniscule difference in cost does not dispute my submission that not every company is out there purely to max profits. Mine isnt.