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Hugh2

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Everything posted by Hugh2

  1. Hugh2
    The two players talked about have been Pivetta and O'Neill. I'm not, nor is really anyone else, talking about them actually getting one.
  2. Hugh2
    50/50? no way jose he gets a QO. I'd be insanely surprised if he gets one. I'd bet my first born son on that. I'd pay O'Neill $21 for two years, not 1. Refsnyder already was picked up so there's you righty bat. Anthony mashes Lefty's, and the lineup is gaining Story back and another righty in Campbell next year. Yes, I'd still like more proven RHH, but not at the expensive of not buying pitching for a guy who struggles to play even a 100 games. He ain't getting QO'd
  3. Hugh2
    If the Sox didn't care about blowing past the luxury tax limit next year I wouldn't be shocked with one of these guys getting a Q.O. But they both accept, and if O'Neill accepts, then you're budget is down to APX $40 million with massive holes in your rotation and your bullpen. Q.O. is going to be about $21 million. With a crowded outfield the team should be all in on pitching.
  4. Hugh2
    If you don't plan on going over the luxury tax O'Neill takes up 1/3 of your offseason budget and you're still down a starter and a reliever before you even consider you need pitching. No way in heck O'Neill gets a Q.O.
  5. Hugh2
    I think Theo is going to have his hands involved in more areas where ownership has in the past.
  6. Hugh2
    I believe today is the deadline team/player/mutual options to be exercises and for people to opt out. Free agency really starts tonight, but I suspect the first wave of moves will be resigning's and extensions.
  7. Hugh2
    Here are my offseason additions. Shane Bieber 2 years $21 million. (he effectively gets paid to rehab and becomes the mid year addition) Max Fried 7 years $195 million. Elite starter. Tanner Scott 4 years $60 million. Elite Closer Danny Jansen 2 years $10 million. back up until Teel is ready, possible long term back up if Wong is traded. 2025 Budget apx, $223 million dollars.
  8. Hugh2
    baseball is probably one of the most challenging sports mentally, why wouldn't they have a "mental coach"???
  9. Hugh2
    You know who else was 22 when the reached Portland????? Jarren Duran. Yeah.......that's who. And he only turned out to be Jarren Duran.
  10. Hugh2
    This is a huge stretch. Years matter because it equals job security and more money overall, it all comes down to the money. at $23 million a year. That means, if he turned Bostons offer down ALL he needed to make was $9 for one year. A bench bat makes that, it was a calculated risk he and many other players in his position make, it's still about the money this ISNT'T a zero sum game, taking less money overall but for one year doesn't null the fact that players primary focus is maximizing money.
  11. Hugh2
    His career AWAY OPS is only .033 higher and he actually hits just as many home runs at home than he does on the road. According to Fangraphs Teoscars value went from: 2021 $32.1 2022 $23.3 2023 $15.6 You can't look at hose number and not say one good year substantially rebuilds his value after having a good season in 2024.
  12. Hugh2
    There's plenty of information out there providing the contrary, although it also largely is due to the fact that his market collapsed, Boston offered 14 million per year, LA 23. You can't compare the two, unless boston was offering 2 years 45. But only player of his caliber would have taken the one year deal and assumed he could make more than $9 million per year the next year. La offered more money in retrospect, assuming he didn't get injured this year and could never play again. Assuming he could get more than 1 year $9 million LA offered more money to Teoscar. That's why he signed with LA, not because he didn't want to come to Boston. I'm sure he was much happier to go to LA and win but he would go to Boston in a heartbeat if we offered more money. It often comes down to money.
  13. Hugh2
    How many guys older than 24 are just organizational players though? bringing that average up. On the other hand, 21-22 year olds reaching AA and becoming good MLB players is much more normal than phenoms reaching the level at 19-20
  14. Hugh2
    Easy, $23 million was probably much more per year than anyone was offering him for 2-3. He was faced with the decision of taking a one year deal to rebuild his value and possibly making more money on a 3+ year deal in his age 33 season and he got to do it playing for a contender. It looks like his gamble paid off big time. He got a ring, he had a great season, and probably gets a 3 year+ contract now for more money than he got last year and I bet you it's with a lesser team than LA.
  15. Hugh2
    Does it make your back crack, does it put more cut in your strut and more glide in your stride?
  16. Hugh2
    Because you can. I would argue this is the PERFECT time to do so. When you get to pay Roman Anthony, Bryan Bello, and Tristan Casas close to a million dollars a year that saves you the money TO spend it elsewhere and build a super team without going over the luxury tax limit if you choose to continue to stay below. Building young talent and never spending is small market team, Red Sox may not be trying to be a big market team any more but they're still a mid market team, and those guys jump in the water from time to time. You strike when the iron is hot, and that may be either this season, or next offseason. But I agree with your last sentence, which is why I'm a huge advocate of the Sox spending big on FA pitchers (Tanner Scott, Corbin Burnes)
  17. Hugh2
    The thing about Rafaela is how bad his plate discipline is and the underlying data doesn't elude to someone who got unlucky and is going to see higher numbers. He's a got a little pop and gives you something here and there but his value is on DEFENSE. I'm not trying to knock him, I like Ceddanne, but my point is the profile of an elite defensive fielder who offers very little at the plate is not one that gets paid. He wouldn't be heavily rewarded in arbitration, so his contract and extension might not be seen as an asset to a team trading for him, actually SOME teams might view it as a liability. I truly don't understand the decision to extend him so early, but what I'm getting at here is I don't think he's very movable at all, at least if you're expecting anything of value back in return. I think Rafaela is one of those guys, given circumstances that can provide much more value to the Sox than anywhere else.
  18. Hugh2
    Unpopular take, but I can always flex that it was the same take I had 10 years ago. Sox should have gone after Scherzer.
  19. Hugh2
    Also, didn't he only get paid $53.00 because of the covid year? So in essence he actually beat his projection. I think that's winning in free agency, if all our free agent signing over the last five years equaled or beat projections we'd probably have a worse farm system right now (pessimistic take)
  20. Hugh2
    are 3 $10 million dollar seasons more valuable that 1 $30? I suppose that's arguable, but if say.....the Sox won the pennant in 2021 (and they were two games away from doing so) I'd say reverse is true.
  21. Hugh2
    In my book, if you break even on a FA pitcher that's a huge win. Nothing wrong with getting equal value, thats the way it should be. Nate was one of our success stories in FA signings in recent years.
  22. Hugh2
    It's almost as if they've an insanely deep roster because they spend a lot of money on talent.
  23. Hugh2
    I'm specifically talking about Chris Sale the individual and not the Boston Red Sox. It's bad luck, I suppose for lack of a better term because I don't believe in luck that he couldn't string together a long bill of health here and he finally does it after he's been traded.
  24. Hugh2
    Was playing in Boston hurting Sale? because he was always pretty good to lights out here when healthy. He just could stay healthy. Was it the air? was in the dirty water? I think we are just insanely unlucky.....we didn't deserve that, but John Henry did.
  25. Hugh2
    In a vacuum, these things work. Guys who fit the Kluber profile come back and pitch like an ACE, guys who fit the Story profile stay healthy and continue playing full time and well into their 30's, teams hit on guys like Yoshida everyone else was wrong about, etc etc etc. (we can insert many names here) but these things end horribly as well. Good teams, even the Yankees and Dodgers make moves like this as well, despite what the nay-sayers on this board say about every little thing. The difference is, this is ALL we've done the past 5 years in lieu of taking any real risk on premium players.
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