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harmony

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Everything posted by harmony

  1. harmony
    FWIW the ZiPS three-year projections have Triston Casas with 1.5 WAR in 2025, 1.5 WAR in 2026 and 1.7 WAR in 2027: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/triston-casas/22514/stats?position=1B#zips-3-year-projections Other 2025 projections for Casas are slightly more optimistic: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/triston-casas/22514/stats?position=1B#dashboard
  2. harmony
    On paper, MLB’s ban on participation in fantasy baseball extends to minimum-wage employees of minor league teams.
  3. harmony
    Some of the best Red Sox seasons came on the heels of pessimistic projections. And vice versa. The Red Sox pitching should be their strong suit.
  4. harmony
    Take the over but otherwise temper expectations.
  5. harmony
    The projected PECOTA standings are out: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/
  6. harmony
    That assumes that Rafael Devers' replacements would total 0 WAR. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/rafael-devers/17350/stats?position=3B#zips-3-year-projections Devers is a solid baseball player who ranks 28th among all position players in WAR over the past three seasons: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2022&season=2024 Devers easily leads the Red Sox in WAR over that three-year period.
  7. harmony
    ??? Baseball Trade Values assigns Luis Castillo a surplus value of $7 million and Trevor Story a negative value of $66.3 million. On a side note, is Marcelo Mayer anywhere near MLB-ready? Last fall this forum hosted a brief debate on whether Seattle would be interested in Mayer when the Mariners already have top middle infield prospects. The Athletic's Keith Law recently ranked two Seattle shortstop prospects -- Colt Emerson at No. 5 and Felnin Celesten at No. 24 -- ahead of Mayer, who landed at No, 28 overall. Emerson and Celesten, who are 19 years old, are a few years off but a third Seattle shortstop prospect, 21-year-old Cole Young at No, 45, is considered an outside candidate to make his MLB debut this year. Neither Mayer nor Young, who is seven months younger than Mayer, have played an inning above Double A. Compare their career lines at the Double A level: MM 120 G, 524 PA, .264/.328/.435/.763, 80 R, 14 HR, 58 RBI, 17 SB CY 124 G, 552 PA, .271/.369/.390/.759, 67 R, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 23 SB Let's hope both Mayer and Young have productive MLB careers.
  8. harmony
    Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers are older than Seattle's Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Victor Robles, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo but FanGraphs projects regression of 5.4 to 4.8 WAR for Raleigh, 3.1 to 2.3 WAR for Robles, 4.2 to 3,.5 WAR for Kirby, 4.1 to 3.5 WAR for Gilbert, 2.8 to 2.1 WAR for Miller and 2.3 to 1.8 WAR for Bryan Woo.
  9. harmony
    With Max Scherzer reportedly signing with Toronto, the Blue Jays have slipped past the Red Sox in FanGraphs' projected 2025 WAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14 The Red Sox rank ninth in the American League in projected 2025 WAR (and a close last in the AL East).
  10. harmony
    The Red Sox land five on the Top 100 prospect list by Keith Law at The Athletic: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6078454/2025/01/27/top-100-mlb-prospects-2025-keith-law/ Subscription required. Law has Roman Anthony No. 1, Kristian Campbell No. 9, Marcelo Mayer No. 28, Franklin Arias No. 42 and Yoelin Cespedes No,. 97.
  11. harmony
    Steamer600 projections that assume 600 plate appearances for each hitter: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer600&stats=bat&pos=all&team=3&players=0&lg=&z=1737862779&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard
  12. harmony
    According to the FanGraphs WAR projections, pitching should not be a major concern for the Red Sox: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3
  13. harmony
    Alex Bregman would help the Red Sox but FanGraphs would subtract the projected WAR for the players (games and plate appearances) whom Bregman would replace.
  14. harmony
    On a less humorous note, a list of current and former FanGraphs staff members (some of whom left when hired by MLB front offices): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FanGraphs Scroll down.
  15. harmony
    Are the other franchises encouraging the Los Angeles Dodgers to spend freely this offseason to provide justification for a salary cap in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement? A salary cap would benefit most, if not all, franchises.
  16. harmony
    FWIW with the signing of Anthony Santander, the Blue Jays have moved past the Red Sox into seventh place in the American League in projected 2025 WAR at FanGraphs: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14
  17. harmony
    Last year Jarren Duran and Garrett Crochet experienced breakout seasons with 6.7 fWAR and 4.7 fWAR, respectively. FanGraphs now projects Duran and Crochet with 2025 WAR of 3.1 and 4.8, respectively. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/24617/stats?position=OF#dashboard https://www.fangraphs.com/players/garrett-crochet/27463/stats?position=P#dashboard It's curious that the projections have Duran regressing toward the mean but Crochet essentially repeating his 2024 production. The age difference of nearly three years could offer one explanation.
  18. harmony
    Indeed FanGraphs mislabels that column as "Bat" instead of "position players" which would include defensive value.
  19. harmony
    With current rosters, FanGraphs projects the Red Sox second in the American League in pitching WAR, 14th in batting WAR and seventh in overall 2025 WAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3
  20. harmony
    Triston Casas was interviewed at Saturday's Fenway Fest: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOtNyVFg9BM
  21. harmony
    The FanGraphs projections currently assign Red Sox batters a negative 17.8 fielding score, including a negative 11 score for Connor Wong alone: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3#ALL That might help explain why FanGraphs ranks Red Sox position players 14th in the American League in projected overall 2025 WAR. https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3#ALL As points of reference, FanGraphs assigns 2025 fielding scores of a positive 11.2 for the Yankees, a negative 1.8 for the Orioles, a negative 5.0 for the Astros and a positive 7.1 for the Mariners.
  22. harmony
    At what point is this article considered clickbait? Addicted baseball fans (this poster included) keep feeding the clickbait machine.
  23. harmony
    The report was that Seattle turned down an offer of Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida for Luis Castillo after the Red Sox turned down an offer of Castillo for Casas straight up: https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/12/red-sox-wanted-to-package-triston-casas-high-paid-veteran-in-trade-for-pitching-report.html The Mariners aren't that stupid.
  24. harmony
    We all have the privilege of assigning appropriate weight to an established projection system and to the bald opinion of an anonymous dude on the internet. We'll let the season play out.😃
  25. harmony
    Perhaps these 2025 FanGraphs projections properly rate Julio Rodriguez (just ahead of Mookie Betts and 21 slots ahead of Rafael Devers): https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=all&stats=bat&type=fangraphsdc Or not.😉
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