harmony

With current rosters, FanGraphs projects the Red Sox second in the American League in pitching WAR, 14th in batting WAR and seventh in overall 2025 WAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

Triston Casas was interviewed at Saturday's Fenway Fest: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOtNyVFg9BM

The FanGraphs projections currently assign Red Sox batters a negative 17.8 fielding score, including a negative 11 score for Connor Wong alone: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3#ALL That might help explain why FanGraphs ranks Red Sox position players 14th in the American League in projected overall 2025 WAR. https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3#ALL As points of reference, FanGraphs assigns 2025 fielding scores of a positive 11.2 for the Yankees, a negative 1.8 for the Orioles, a negative 5.0 for the Astros and a positive 7.1 for the Mariners.

At what point is this article considered clickbait? Addicted baseball fans (this poster included) keep feeding the clickbait machine.

The report was that Seattle turned down an offer of Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida for Luis Castillo after the Red Sox turned down an offer of Castillo for Casas straight up: https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/12/red-sox-wanted-to-package-triston-casas-high-paid-veteran-in-trade-for-pitching-report.html The Mariners aren't that stupid.

We all have the privilege of assigning appropriate weight to an established projection system and to the bald opinion of an anonymous dude on the internet. We'll let the season play out.😃

Perhaps these 2025 FanGraphs projections properly rate Julio Rodriguez (just ahead of Mookie Betts and 21 slots ahead of Rafael Devers): https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=all&stats=bat&type=fangraphsdc Or not.😉

Last year Julio Rodriguez may have suffered the age 23 curse of elite Dominican hitters. In his age 23 season, Rodriguez posted a 3.8 fWAR after posting a 5.8 fWAR the previous year. In his age 23 season in 2022, Juan Soto posted a 3.7 fWAR after posting a 6.8 fWAR the previous year. In his age 23 season in 2022, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. posted a 3.3 fWAR after posting a 6.3 fWAR the previous year. Fernando Tatis Jr, missed his age 23 season after posting a 6.8 fWAR the previous year. Tatis saw his fWAR drop to 4.1 in his age 24 season. No need to panic over Julio Rodriguez.

FanGraphs currently projects the Red Sox eighth in the American League in overall 2025 WAR, including second in the league in pitching WAR and 14th in position player WAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

St. Louis fans react to the prospect of a Nolan Arenado trade to Boston: https://interact.stltoday.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=12918692#p12918692

The Fenway Faithful podcast discusses Nolan Arenado, Alex Bregman and Triston Casas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vMT4nPC-Kc

In his podcast, Justin Verlander's brother picks the Red Sox to win the American League East in 2025: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkXM9FlNwnk

The Red Sox have addressed many pitching needs but have neglected their needs for position players. With current rosters, FanGraphs projects the Red Sox second in the American League in projected pitching WAR but 14th in projected position player WAR, ahead of only the White Sox: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14

The Red Sox posted a wRC+ of 83 after August 15 last year.

FanGraphs currently projects the 2025 Red Sox with 40.7 WAR, eighth in the American League and third in the AL East: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

FanGraphs currently projects the 2025 Red Sox with 40.7 WAR, eighth in the American League and third in the AL East: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

The Los Angeles Angels signed Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year contract through the left-hander's age 36 season. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/angels-to-sign-yusei-kikuchi.html

??? Yusei Kikuchi turns 34 years old next June: https://www.mlb.com/player/yusei-kikuchi-579328

The Red Sox placed 13th in a recent farm system ranking at Bleacher Report: https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/10148856-updated-mlb-farm-system-rankings-for-the-2024-25-offseason.amp.html

The problem for the Mariners probably isn't so much the 2025 budget but the payrolls for 2026 and beyond. That's why Masastaka Yoshida's contract through 2027 is undesirable. The Seattle farm system had the good fortune of graduating Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bruce Miller and Bryan Woo within the short span of a few years. The downside now is that their salaries will escalate through arbitration (and through Julio's long-term extension). Even in his down 2023 season, Luis Castillo's 2.3 fWAR easily surpassed the 1.4 fWAR Yoshida posted in his first two MLB seasons. Steamer projects Castillo with a 2025 WAR of 2.8 in 31 starts and Yoshida with a 2025 WAR of 1.2 in 123 games. Mitch Garver is a bounceback candidate to platoon with Luke Raley at DH (or with Randy Arozarena flipping from the outfield to DH according to the matchups). That assumes the Mariners land a first baseman from a dwindling market. Yandy Diaz or Ryan Mountcastle are possibilities; Andrew Vaughn or Spencer Torkelson would be disappointing consolations.

What is the trade value of Triston Casas? One value comp might be Tampa first baseman Yandy Diaz, who is included in this featured hypothetical trade at Baseball Trade Values: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/181711 BTV assigns a surplus value of $29.9 million to four years of Casas and a surplus value of $23.4 million to Diaz, who is owed $10 million in 2025 with a 2026 club option for $12 million (no buyout). Steamer projects a 25-year-old Casas with a 2025 WAR of 2.4 in 146 games and a 33-year-old Diaz with a 2025 WAR of 3.6 in 150 games. The BTV hypothetical would send Diaz and six years of infielder Curtis Means to Seattle for a four=player package of a 20-year-old Top 50 prospect and three first-round draft picks (two disappointing and one in the 2025 draft). The Red Sox are in a win-now mode without the fiscal constraints of the Rays, but would the Sox trade Casas and, say, five years of infielder Vaughn Grissom for the Seattle package? The aggregate BTV numbers match up. Speaking of matching up ... Baseball Trade Values assigns Boston righthander Lucas Giolito and Seattle outfielder/DH Mitch Haniger identical negative trade values of $15.5 million. Would the Red Sox be interested in Haniger's righthanded bat, perhaps as a platoon partner with Wilyer Abreu? Would the Mariners want Giolito as depth behind their touted five-man starting rotation? Haniger has one year and $15.5 million remaining on his contract, according to Spotrac. Giolito is owed $19 million in 2025 with a 2026 mutual option for $14 million ($1.5 million buyout) if he pitches 140 innings in 2025. Giolito's contract also includes incentives for innings pitched each year. Haniger's contract includes a $1 million assignment bonus that is typically picked up by the trading team, in this case the Mariners. The frugal Seattle front office might be unwilling to take on Giolito's 2025 salary and 2026 buyout on top of the assignment bonus. Steamer projects Haniger with a 2025 WAR of a negative 0.1 in 105 games and Giolito with a 2025 WAR of 1.0 in 29 games, including 15 starts. Someone has too much time on his hands this holiday season.😃

May you find peace and a return to your unbridled enthusiasm for the Red Sox. Merry Christmas!

Would anyone prefer Nick Pivetta at $19 million* over Walker Buehler at $21.05 million plus incentives? * plus the loss of a compensatory draft pick at the end of the second round if Pivetta signed elsewhere

That was mentioned in this hour-long podcast that speculates about possible trades between the Red Sox and Seattle Mariners: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IH9GM0upOx8

On Friday USA Today ranked the Red Sox farm system fourth in MLB: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2024/12/20/2024-mlb-farm-system-rankings/77076639007/