harmony

The problem for the Mariners probably isn't so much the 2025 budget but the payrolls for 2026 and beyond. That's why Masastaka Yoshida's contract through 2027 is undesirable. The Seattle farm system had the good fortune of graduating Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bruce Miller and Bryan Woo within the short span of a few years. The downside now is that their salaries will escalate through arbitration (and through Julio's long-term extension). Even in his down 2023 season, Luis Castillo's 2.3 fWAR easily surpassed the 1.4 fWAR Yoshida posted in his first two MLB seasons. Steamer projects Castillo with a 2025 WAR of 2.8 in 31 starts and Yoshida with a 2025 WAR of 1.2 in 123 games. Mitch Garver is a bounceback candidate to platoon with Luke Raley at DH (or with Randy Arozarena flipping from the outfield to DH according to the matchups). That assumes the Mariners land a first baseman from a dwindling market. Yandy Diaz or Ryan Mountcastle are possibilities; Andrew Vaughn or Spencer Torkelson would be disappointing consolations.

What is the trade value of Triston Casas? One value comp might be Tampa first baseman Yandy Diaz, who is included in this featured hypothetical trade at Baseball Trade Values: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/181711 BTV assigns a surplus value of $29.9 million to four years of Casas and a surplus value of $23.4 million to Diaz, who is owed $10 million in 2025 with a 2026 club option for $12 million (no buyout). Steamer projects a 25-year-old Casas with a 2025 WAR of 2.4 in 146 games and a 33-year-old Diaz with a 2025 WAR of 3.6 in 150 games. The BTV hypothetical would send Diaz and six years of infielder Curtis Means to Seattle for a four=player package of a 20-year-old Top 50 prospect and three first-round draft picks (two disappointing and one in the 2025 draft). The Red Sox are in a win-now mode without the fiscal constraints of the Rays, but would the Sox trade Casas and, say, five years of infielder Vaughn Grissom for the Seattle package? The aggregate BTV numbers match up. Speaking of matching up ... Baseball Trade Values assigns Boston righthander Lucas Giolito and Seattle outfielder/DH Mitch Haniger identical negative trade values of $15.5 million. Would the Red Sox be interested in Haniger's righthanded bat, perhaps as a platoon partner with Wilyer Abreu? Would the Mariners want Giolito as depth behind their touted five-man starting rotation? Haniger has one year and $15.5 million remaining on his contract, according to Spotrac. Giolito is owed $19 million in 2025 with a 2026 mutual option for $14 million ($1.5 million buyout) if he pitches 140 innings in 2025. Giolito's contract also includes incentives for innings pitched each year. Haniger's contract includes a $1 million assignment bonus that is typically picked up by the trading team, in this case the Mariners. The frugal Seattle front office might be unwilling to take on Giolito's 2025 salary and 2026 buyout on top of the assignment bonus. Steamer projects Haniger with a 2025 WAR of a negative 0.1 in 105 games and Giolito with a 2025 WAR of 1.0 in 29 games, including 15 starts. Someone has too much time on his hands this holiday season.😃

May you find peace and a return to your unbridled enthusiasm for the Red Sox. Merry Christmas!

Would anyone prefer Nick Pivetta at $19 million* over Walker Buehler at $21.05 million plus incentives? * plus the loss of a compensatory draft pick at the end of the second round if Pivetta signed elsewhere

That was mentioned in this hour-long podcast that speculates about possible trades between the Red Sox and Seattle Mariners: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IH9GM0upOx8

On Friday USA Today ranked the Red Sox farm system fourth in MLB: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2024/12/20/2024-mlb-farm-system-rankings/77076639007/

We should not be unduly influenced by minuscule samples, but Kutter Crawford tossed five shutout innings in each of this poster's last two Red Sox games at T-Mobile Park in Seattle: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SEA/SEA202206120.shtml https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SEA/SEA202308020.shtml Kutter Crawford has value.

Steamer ranks Luis Castillo 38th among all pitchers in projected 2025 WAR with 2.8, a fraction ahead of Tanner Houck: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=&stats=pit&type=steamer ZiPS is more bullish on Castillo with a projected 2025 WAR of 3.3. A trade of Castillo would not be a salary dump. The veteran righthander may well open the 2025 season in the Seattle rotation.

On the issue of transparency, we all have the privilege of assigning appropriate weight to the valuations of detailed system: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/articles/notes-on-our-valuations ... and the bald, opaque opinions of an anonymous dude on the internet.

The site's founder addresses BTV's offseason updates: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/articles/notes-on-our-valuations

Events and circumstances can impact the stock market -- and any market -- on a day-to-day basis. That's what we see every year in the MLB offseason. Baseball Trade Values is not perfect but the site regularly reviews its projections: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/history Each MLB front office presumably reviews its projections.

Red Sox pitchers might say the same about Connor Wong.

Perhaps Ken Rosenthal's article that places the Red Sox trade in a positive light should not have been shared on this forum. FWIW the comparison that has not withstood the test of time involved Jarren Duran and Taylor Trammell, who is currently listed as the starting right fielder for the reigning AL West champion Houston Astros: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/astros

From Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5988459/2024/12/11/mlb-winter-meetings-notes-garrett-crochet-trade-red-sox/ subscription required

This year the Mariners matched the Red Sox with a wRC+ of 104, including a league-leading wRC+ of 118 after August 15 when the Red Sox slumped to a wRC+ of 83. Like most teams, the Mariners and Red Sox seek to improve their hitting.

Thank you for asking. Seattle remains a longshot to land Roki Sasaki but the Mariners ... 1. have a strong reputation of developing starting pitchers 2. have a solid record of maintaining the health of their starting pitchers 3. play their home games in MLB's most pitcher-friendly ballpark https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors 4. have averaged 88+ wins over the past four seasons, landing one postseason berth, twice finishing one game behind the final Wild Care berth and once finishing two games back 5. return a relatively young core with multiple years of team control, losing only the likes of Jorge Polanco, Josh Rojas and Luis Urias (plus midseason acquisitions Justin Turner and Yimi Garcia) 6. currently employ Hisashi Iwakuma as a special assignment coach and Ichiro Suzuki as a special assistant to the chairman 7. play in MLB's closest market to Japan (4,769 air miles from Tokyo)

Roki Sasaki is subject to restrictions on the international bonus pool money that render the monetary bidding process meaningless. Sasaki will be under team control for six seasons, including three years at the league-minimum salary. https://www.mlb.com/news/roki-sasaki-posting-mlb

The provided link rebuts your allegation:

It’s not that simple. Why would Roki Sasaki sign with the Red Sox?

A month ago this poster wrote that the Mariners "might consider a trade of Luis Castillo at a value higher than his BTV value" when BTV valued Castillo at a negative $30.6 million. https://talksox.com/forums/topic/88909-a-realistic-view-of-the-2025-red-sox-part-i/page/42/#comment-2984867 Please refrain from unfounded accusations.

This poster is not the Seattle Mariners. Sorry. However, after today's trade of Kyle Teel, the Red Sox might be interested in Seattle farmhand Harry Ford, MLB.com's seventh-ranked catching prospect who is a year younger than Teel, the third-ranked catching prospect: https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/c/

Only after the Mariners sign Roki Sasaki. 😀😃😁

Does specific evidence support those conclusions? https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/179540 https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/179544

In a trade proposal barely 13 months ago, Baseball Trade Values assigned Garrett Crochet a negative $300,000 value: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/146753 ... before the left-hander turned in his impressive 2024 season. In the fierce competition for perhaps the top pitcher on this offseason's trade market, the winning bid likely needed to be more than the merely fair offers of other suitors. The Red Sox fared well.

Sean Manaea would cost a comp pick.