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harmony

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Everything posted by harmony

  1. harmony
    Thoughts on this proposed trade that includes two injured Red Sox? https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/185693
  2. harmony
    Thanks
  3. harmony
    Where does FanGraphs project the Red Sox with 85 wins? https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3 Roster Resource projects the following Red Sox lineup (with Steamer and ZiPS wRC+ projections): Jarren Duran (111/114) Rafael Devers (130/131) Alex Bregman (122/119) Triston Casas (123/124) Masastaka Yoshida (117/116) Trevor Story (81/88) Wilyer Abreu (108/109) Connor Wong (90/98) Ceddanne Rafaela (89/93) https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/red-sox Will opponents exploit the bottom of the Red Sox order? Will Kristian Campbell (115/119) and Roman Anthony (102/104) provide relief?
  4. harmony
    Is the ceiling for Triston Casas a poor-fielding Anthony Rizzo? The 6-foot-5 Casas and the 6-foot-3 Rizzo are somewhat disciplined lefthand-hitting first basemen drafted by the Red Sox out of Florida high schools separated by 15 miles. Casas has posted 2.9 bWAR in 222 games through his first three partial MLB seasons. In his first three partial MLB seasons Rizzo had posted 4.4 bWAR in 296 games. Rizzo is a four-time Gold Glove winner who has posted 39.8 bWAR in 1,727 career games. The divided projections for Casas include the low ZiPS three-year projections of 1.5, 1.5 and 1.7 WAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/triston-casas/22514/stats?position=1B#zips-3-year-projections A year from now the Red Sox and others should have a better idea of Casas' value.
  5. harmony
    Seattle is unlikely to trade Mitch Garver, who is a likelier bounceback candidate than Mitch Haniger.
  6. harmony
    The Mariner probably would not prefer David Hamilton at his BTV surplus value of $13.8 million. Seattle podcasters today mentioned Hamilton as a potential 2026 utility replacement for Dylan Moore. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yhH2WcB-zo&list=PLwuw1WOff-eeWrIYDKFgSyWgsX5_uGLLu20. At 27:20.
  7. harmony
    In order to reduce 2026-27 payroll, how much money should the Red Sox be willing to send in a trade of Masataka Yoshida and Vaughn Grissom to Seattle for Mitch Haniger? On Thursday Baseball Trade Values assigned Yoshida a negative value of $29.2 million, Grissom a surplus value of $2.4 million and Haniger a negative value of $15.5 million. Yoshida has three years left on his contract and Haniger has one year remaining. Grissom has five years of team control.
  8. harmony
    Another team might be interested in a bulked-up Vaughn Grissom as a future third baseman. Steamer 600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each hitter, projects Grissom with 2.6 WAR and a 103 wRC+ in 2025: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer600&stats=bat&pos=all&team=3&players=0&lg=&z=1739418020&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard ... probably getting WAR credit as a middle infielder.
  9. harmony
    From Wikipedia: Alex Bregman "was a batboy for the University of New Mexico baseball team, and in 2004 served as a batboy for a game against Arizona State University and his then-favorite baseball player, Dustin Pedroia. His best friend is Blake Swihart, who played for the Boston Red Sox and Arizona Diamondbacks. Bregman and Swihart played travel ball together growing up." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Bregman Bregman's father, Sam Bregman, is the current district attorney in Albuquerque, serving Bernalillo County. 🙂🙂🙂
  10. harmony
    The Mariners might at least listen on the offer for Mitch Haniger despite the offer's implications for the 2026-27 payrolls when Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Cal Raleigh, Bryce Miller and others await salary increases in arbitration. Seattle is unikely to trade Mitch Garver, whom the Mariners view as the likelier bounceback candidate. Seattle podcasters discussed the possible fallout from the Alex Bregman signing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yhH2WcB-zo ... including whether this offseason the Red Sox were shopping Triston Casas or merely listening to offers.
  11. harmony
    Trevor Story provides an interesting comp. Story was 29 years, five months and 11 days old in March 2022 when the Red Sox signed the two-time All Star infielder to a six-year, $140 million contract. Alex Bregman is 30 years, 10 months and 20 days old as the Red Sox are expected to sign the two-time All Star infielder to a three-year, $120 million contract. At the time of his signing, Story had posted 26.8 bWAR in 745 MLB games while Bregman has posted 39.6 bWAR in 1,111 games. Per 100 games Story had posted 3.597 bWAR and Bregman 3.537 bWAR. Regardless, the Red Sox lineup is stronger this morning than it was yesterday morning.
  12. harmony
    Trevor Story provides an interesting comp. Story was 29 years, five months and 11 days old in March 2022 when the Red Sox signed the two-time All Star infielder to a six-year, $140 million contract. Alex Bregman is 30 years, 10 months and 20 days old as the Red Sox are expected to sign the two-time All Star infielder to a three-year, $120 million contract. At the time of his signing, Story had posted 26.8 bWAR in 745 MLB games while Bregman has posted 39.6 bWAR in 1,111 games. Per 100 games Story had posted 3.597 bWAR and Bregman 3.537 bWAR. Regardless, the Red Sox lineup is stronger this morning than it was yesterday morning.
  13. harmony
    Perhaps Masataka Yoshida will play left field (with Triston Casas at first base and Rafael Devers at designated hitter).
  14. harmony
    Will the Red Sox lose draft picks and international money for signing Alex Bregman?
  15. harmony
    The Red Sox reportedly will sign Alex Bregman to a three-year, $120 million contract: https://x.com/Chandler_Rome/status/1889878592005480904
  16. harmony
    Monster Territory podcaster Robbie Hyde and Baseball Trade Values founder John Bitzer discuss a hypothetical Red Sox trade for Nolan Arenado: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2tSP38B4wA
  17. harmony
    Nick Pivetta reportedly will sign a four-year, $55 million contract (with opt outs) with the San Diego Padres: https://x.com/JeffPassan/status/1889859851721043974 The Red Sox can welcome a compensatory draft pick at about No. 77.
  18. harmony
    Hours have passed since this obscure source reported that Alex Bregman and the Detroit Tigers have reached a contract agreement: https://bsky.app/profile/alvingarcia.bsky.social/post/3lhwj5vnqk22h The lack of confirming news renders the report unreliable (but interesting).
  19. harmony
    The Red Sox reportedly have "expressed interest" in a Justin Turner reunion: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6127585/2025/02/10/chicago-cubs-justin-turner-interest/?source=emp_shared_article&onboarded=true https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/02/cubs-among-teams-with-interest-in-justin-turner.html
  20. harmony
    FanGraphs currently agrees, giving the Red Sox a 50.5 percent chance of advancing to the 2025 postseason: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
  21. harmony
    Roster Resource currently lists Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti and Hayden Wesneski as the Nos. 3, 4 and 5 starters for the Astros with J.P. France, Luis Garica, Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr. on the injured list: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/astros The Astros should be interested in a Wilyer Abreu reunion and could offer Isaac Paredes if Alex Bregman re-signs with Houston.
  22. harmony
    An outsider's somewhat optimistic view of the 2025 Red Sox: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uNOYn_PSug
  23. harmony
    FWIW Baseball Trade Values on January 31 assigned Isaac Paredes a surplus value of $32.2 million while assigning Kutter Crawford a surplus value of $32.1 million on Wednesday and $29.7 million on Saturday.
  24. harmony
    Boston CBO Craig Breslow spoke this week with beat reporters Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGKIgLFLr5I
  25. harmony
    Scott Boras landed a guaranteed 2025 salary of $30 million for Pete Alonso, who last year posted 2.1 fWAR, valued at $16.7 million: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/pete-alonso/19251/stats?position=1B#value The 30-year-old Alonso can opt out after the 2025 season or return in 2026 for $24 million, which still exceeds the $22.8 million value of his 2.8 fWAR in 2023. Could another agent have negotiated a better deal?
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