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harmony

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Everything posted by harmony

  1. harmony
    The Red Sox reportedly have "expressed interest" in a Justin Turner reunion: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6127585/2025/02/10/chicago-cubs-justin-turner-interest/?source=emp_shared_article&onboarded=true https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/02/cubs-among-teams-with-interest-in-justin-turner.html
  2. harmony
    FanGraphs currently agrees, giving the Red Sox a 50.5 percent chance of advancing to the 2025 postseason: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
  3. harmony
    Roster Resource currently lists Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti and Hayden Wesneski as the Nos. 3, 4 and 5 starters for the Astros with J.P. France, Luis Garica, Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr. on the injured list: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/astros The Astros should be interested in a Wilyer Abreu reunion and could offer Isaac Paredes if Alex Bregman re-signs with Houston.
  4. harmony
    An outsider's somewhat optimistic view of the 2025 Red Sox: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uNOYn_PSug
  5. harmony
    FWIW Baseball Trade Values on January 31 assigned Isaac Paredes a surplus value of $32.2 million while assigning Kutter Crawford a surplus value of $32.1 million on Wednesday and $29.7 million on Saturday.
  6. harmony
    Boston CBO Craig Breslow spoke this week with beat reporters Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGKIgLFLr5I
  7. harmony
    Scott Boras landed a guaranteed 2025 salary of $30 million for Pete Alonso, who last year posted 2.1 fWAR, valued at $16.7 million: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/pete-alonso/19251/stats?position=1B#value The 30-year-old Alonso can opt out after the 2025 season or return in 2026 for $24 million, which still exceeds the $22.8 million value of his 2.8 fWAR in 2023. Could another agent have negotiated a better deal?
  8. harmony
    FWIW the ZiPS three-year projections have Triston Casas with 1.5 WAR in 2025, 1.5 WAR in 2026 and 1.7 WAR in 2027: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/triston-casas/22514/stats?position=1B#zips-3-year-projections Other 2025 projections for Casas are slightly more optimistic: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/triston-casas/22514/stats?position=1B#dashboard
  9. harmony
    On paper, MLB’s ban on participation in fantasy baseball extends to minimum-wage employees of minor league teams.
  10. harmony
    Some of the best Red Sox seasons came on the heels of pessimistic projections. And vice versa. The Red Sox pitching should be their strong suit.
  11. harmony
    Take the over but otherwise temper expectations.
  12. harmony
    The projected PECOTA standings are out: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/
  13. harmony
    That assumes that Rafael Devers' replacements would total 0 WAR. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/rafael-devers/17350/stats?position=3B#zips-3-year-projections Devers is a solid baseball player who ranks 28th among all position players in WAR over the past three seasons: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2022&season=2024 Devers easily leads the Red Sox in WAR over that three-year period.
  14. harmony
    ??? Baseball Trade Values assigns Luis Castillo a surplus value of $7 million and Trevor Story a negative value of $66.3 million. On a side note, is Marcelo Mayer anywhere near MLB-ready? Last fall this forum hosted a brief debate on whether Seattle would be interested in Mayer when the Mariners already have top middle infield prospects. The Athletic's Keith Law recently ranked two Seattle shortstop prospects -- Colt Emerson at No. 5 and Felnin Celesten at No. 24 -- ahead of Mayer, who landed at No, 28 overall. Emerson and Celesten, who are 19 years old, are a few years off but a third Seattle shortstop prospect, 21-year-old Cole Young at No, 45, is considered an outside candidate to make his MLB debut this year. Neither Mayer nor Young, who is seven months younger than Mayer, have played an inning above Double A. Compare their career lines at the Double A level: MM 120 G, 524 PA, .264/.328/.435/.763, 80 R, 14 HR, 58 RBI, 17 SB CY 124 G, 552 PA, .271/.369/.390/.759, 67 R, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 23 SB Let's hope both Mayer and Young have productive MLB careers.
  15. harmony
    Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers are older than Seattle's Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Victor Robles, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo but FanGraphs projects regression of 5.4 to 4.8 WAR for Raleigh, 3.1 to 2.3 WAR for Robles, 4.2 to 3,.5 WAR for Kirby, 4.1 to 3.5 WAR for Gilbert, 2.8 to 2.1 WAR for Miller and 2.3 to 1.8 WAR for Bryan Woo.
  16. harmony
    With Max Scherzer reportedly signing with Toronto, the Blue Jays have slipped past the Red Sox in FanGraphs' projected 2025 WAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14 The Red Sox rank ninth in the American League in projected 2025 WAR (and a close last in the AL East).
  17. harmony
    The Red Sox land five on the Top 100 prospect list by Keith Law at The Athletic: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6078454/2025/01/27/top-100-mlb-prospects-2025-keith-law/ Subscription required. Law has Roman Anthony No. 1, Kristian Campbell No. 9, Marcelo Mayer No. 28, Franklin Arias No. 42 and Yoelin Cespedes No,. 97.
  18. harmony
    Steamer600 projections that assume 600 plate appearances for each hitter: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer600&stats=bat&pos=all&team=3&players=0&lg=&z=1737862779&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard
  19. harmony
    According to the FanGraphs WAR projections, pitching should not be a major concern for the Red Sox: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3
  20. harmony
    Alex Bregman would help the Red Sox but FanGraphs would subtract the projected WAR for the players (games and plate appearances) whom Bregman would replace.
  21. harmony
    On a less humorous note, a list of current and former FanGraphs staff members (some of whom left when hired by MLB front offices): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FanGraphs Scroll down.
  22. harmony
    Are the other franchises encouraging the Los Angeles Dodgers to spend freely this offseason to provide justification for a salary cap in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement? A salary cap would benefit most, if not all, franchises.
  23. harmony
    FWIW with the signing of Anthony Santander, the Blue Jays have moved past the Red Sox into seventh place in the American League in projected 2025 WAR at FanGraphs: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14
  24. harmony
    Last year Jarren Duran and Garrett Crochet experienced breakout seasons with 6.7 fWAR and 4.7 fWAR, respectively. FanGraphs now projects Duran and Crochet with 2025 WAR of 3.1 and 4.8, respectively. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/24617/stats?position=OF#dashboard https://www.fangraphs.com/players/garrett-crochet/27463/stats?position=P#dashboard It's curious that the projections have Duran regressing toward the mean but Crochet essentially repeating his 2024 production. The age difference of nearly three years could offer one explanation.
  25. harmony
    Indeed FanGraphs mislabels that column as "Bat" instead of "position players" which would include defensive value.
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