harmony

The point is that Seattle would have little interest in David Hamilton's career OPS+ of 85 (92 OPS+ in 2024) when Dylan Moore has a guaranteed 2025 contract with the Mariners.

FWIW this year Dylan Moore posted 2.4 fWAR in 135 games.

Podcaster Jim Riley suggests a trade of Triston Casas for Houston left-hander Framber Valdez and two lesser pieces: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCuNECdZj44

Unrealistic offseason expectations produce annual suffering.

Seattle would never offer Luis Castillo for 27-year-old infielder David Hamilton, whom Steamer projects with a 2025 WAR of 0.6 in 50 games. In the utility role the Mariners already have Gold Glove winner Dylan Moore, whom Steamer projects with a 2025 WAR of 2.1 in 136 games.

The Boston front office is probably leakier than the Seattle front office.

Seattle reportedly will listen on Luis Castillo ... and any current Mariner: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nECI_Ti18AA

Alex Cora says little in a nearly 18-minute press conference at the Winter Meetings: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRpzgg3UsAU More from the Winter Meetings: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMQf0VKw-FA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hUkxJeVNsg

The Red Sox and Cubs were in similar situations in terms of 2025 contention and a need for a catcher. The Cubs reportedly face more financial constraints so it's interesting that Carson Kelly may sign with the Cubbies..

No doubt that the Mariners are listening to offers on Luis Castillo.

Perhaps that reporting is imprecise. Here is what the top beat reporter wrote: https://x.com/RyanDivish/status/1840164420204540316

FWIW Luis Castillo's value at Baseball Trade Values has jumped from a negative $30.6 million on November 8, to a negative $6.1 million on November 22, to a positive $5.5 million on December 2 to a positive $2.8 million today.

Seattle PBO Jerry Dipoto in late September reportedly said trading from the Mariner starting rotation would be "Plan Z." https://www.mlb.com/news/jerry-dipoto-reflects-on-mariners-2024-season-future

Baseball Trade Values assigns Rafael Devers a surplus value of only $11.9 million with nine years and $266 million remaining on his contract. This year Devers ranked 27th among position players in fWAR, which is in line with his ranking of 28th among position players over the past three seasons combined. FanGraph valued his 2024 production at $33 million and his three-year production at $100.2 million. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2024&season=2024 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2022&season=2024 This year Jarren Duran posted his single-season breakout but Devers is the highest ranked Red Sox -- position player or pitcher -- in fWAR over the three-year period. Setting three-year fWAR as an arbitrary parameter for established production, the Seattle Mariners have three of the Top 20 pitchers and two of the Top 20 positions players. Four of those five Mariners are younger than Devers and Duran and all remain under team control for at least three seasons. Devers has produced modest surplus value under his long-term contract but the issue is whether Devers will continue to produce over the remaining nine years.

On what is that conclusion based? The Red Sox may have been in negotiations with all four Big 4 without submitting a winning bid.

Interesting trade proposals, especially in the remote event the Seattle Mariners sign right-hander Roki Sasaki. Nolan Arenado could be a great mentor for Marcelo Mayer, a fellow California native drafted out of high school. Arenado would need to waive his no-trade clause to move to Seattle's harsh hitting environment. Would Luis Castillo waive his no-trade clause to join a less-relevant Red sox club? The Mariners would need to scour the scarce market for a second catcher as touted prospect Harry Ford is unlikely to be called up for a backup role.

Baseball Trade Values has announced that its valuation numbers have been updated to "correlate more closely with what we"ve been seeing in the market." https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/ All five Seattle starting pitchers received valuation boosts.

This issue is whether the consumer clicks on the MLBTR link so the original source accumulates hits that support higher advertising rates for the original source. ESPN is doing well despite fiscals ups and downs through the years but newspapers, which MLBTR cites frequently, have experienced significant financial struggles over the past three decades. This is the humble opinion of a former newspaper journalist, journalism professor and attorney who taught 12 semesters of mass media law at the university level.

Indeed the Mariners hope to improve on this year's first base fWAR of 1.2 just as the Red Sox hope to improve on this year's first base fWAR of 0.7. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=0&season=2024&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&filter=&players=0&type=8&month=36 Indeed the Mariners hope to improve on this year's third base fWAR of 2.0 just as the Red Sox hope to improve on this year's third base fWAR of 2.5. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=0&season=2024&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&filter=&players=0&type=8&month=39 While we're at it, the Mariners hope to improve on this year's second base fWAR of 1.6 just as the Red Sox hope to improve on this year's second base fWAR of negative 2.3.. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=0&season=2024&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&filter=&players=0&type=8&month=37

FWIW as the market for starting pitchers heats up, Baseball Trade Values has upgraded Luis Castillo’s trade value to a positive $5.5 million. The upward trend may continue.., or not. Seattle would likely trade Castillo only in the remote event the Mariners sign Roki Sasaki.

On- the-ground news gathering requires resources. Jeff Passan does not work for free. information is a commodity with a certain value. The traditional media and their journalists expend resources to produce that commodity. MLB Trade Rumors pilfers that commodity, sometimes taking consumer traffic away from the original! source. Less traffic means less advertising revenue … unless, of course, the MLBTR links increase the traffic to the original source.

MLB Trade Rumors is a parasitic aggregator that lives off the hard work of real journalists. The real journalists don't object to MLB Trade Rumors if MLBTR provides only a brief summary and a link that increases the traffic at the original source. That's why a link was provided to Jeff Passan, a real journalist who deserves the credit. In recent years MLB Trade Rumors has expanded into some analysis of the underlying reported events.

The Red Sox reportedly sign lefty reliever Aroldis Chapman to a $10.75 million, one-year contract: https://x.com/JeffPassan/status/1863972109803741244

Teoscar Hernandez played in the outfield in all of his 154 games this year. The Red Sox may want a proven starter in a trade of Triston Casas, but how proven is Casas? Over the past two seasons, Casas has posted a 126 OPS+ and only 2.7 bWAR over 745 plate appearances. Seattle's current lineup hands first base to Luke Raley, who over the past two seasons has posted a 127 OPS+ and 6.0 bWAR over 861 plate appearances (despite concerning platoon splits).

Has anyone proposed trading Marcelo Mayer for Luis Castillo? That's a highly unlikely trade from the Red Sox perspective.