harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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Assuming Seattle exercises the $750,000 buyout of the $12 million team option on Jorge Polanco, the Mariners may turn the 2B reins over to Ryan Bliss if an upgrade can't be found this offseason: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bliss-000rya Gold Glove nominee Dylan Moore played 228.1 innings at third base this season but may be best remembered for committing three errors at the hot corner in the ninth inning of a 2019 win over the Red Sox: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SEA/SEA201903300.shtml
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This offseason Seattle will likely look for upgrades at 2B and 3B even though this year Gold Glove nominee Dylan Moore posted 2.4 fWAR in 135 games (nearly matching the 2.3 fWAR Luke Raley posted in 137 games).
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On Wednesday, Baseball Trade Values assigned J.P. Crawford a surplus value of $24.5 million: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?q=j.p.+crawford&page=1
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At an annual salary of $10-11 million, 2.7 bWAR is a bargain. In a down year this season, Crawford posted his bWAR of 2.7 in 105 games while Tyler O'Neill, who is the same age, is lauded for posting 2.7 bWAR in 113 games.
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The Mariners have greater needs than at shortstop. J.P. Crawford, a year removed from a 4.9 fWAR season, remains under team control through 2026 at reasonable annual salaries of $10 million and $11 million. Seattle has three shortstop prospects ranked in MLB.com's Top 100 overall: Colt Emerson at No. 27, Cole Young at No. 38 and barely 19-year-old Felnin Celesten at No. 66. Rather than surrendering value for Marcelo Mayer, the Mariners would probably prefer to spread their risk across those three shortstop prospects. Will the Red Sox be in the market for a righthanded power bat?
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More than one forum poster here suggested that Luis Castillo is undervalued at Baseball Trade Values.
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The opinion, indeed speculation but not factual disinformation, was "Which is precisely why the Mariners prefer Mitch Garver over Masataka Yoshida unless they're getting an important piece back." https://talksox.com/forums/topic/88951-article-masataka-yoshidas-shoulder-injury-threatens-season-start-and-trade-value/page/4/#comment-2983176
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Misinformation occurs when someone carelessly posts that BTV accepts a trade of Randy Arozarena for Masataka Yoshida and Triston Casas when in fact BTV suggests the trade would be a significant overpay by the Mariners. Disinformation occurs when someone intentionally and knowingly posts inaccurate information. Opinions can be based on disinformation or misinformation but are not facts themselves.
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Your disinformation sullies the forum.
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Pardon my math. Baseball Trade Values gives the Red Sox $6 million in surplus value from Randy Arozarena and gives the Mariners a net negative $5 million value from Triston Casas (+18.7) and Masataka Yoshima (-23.7). In other words, a significant overpay by the Mariners.
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Four years of a disappointing former top prospect for three years of, by some measures, the top catcher in baseball? 😃😃😁 https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/market-value/_/id/26119/cal-raleigh https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&pos=c&qual=10&season1=2022&season=2024 Math check: BTV currently has Cal Raleigh undervalued at $28.7 million and Triston Casas valued at $18.7 million.
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That’s why the proposal had Randy Arozarena, whose comp dating back to last offseason was Teoscar Hernandez. An exodus from T-Mobile Park does wonders for righthanded power hitters (such as Adrian Beltre).
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Or the Red Sox could keep Masataka Yoshida and miss the postseason for the fourth year in a row in search of their first winning season since 2021. Each franchise faces challenges.
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Are the Red Sox in love with the $55.6 million remaining on the contract of Masataka Yoshida, who has posted only 1.4 fWAR, valued at $11.2 million, in 248 games with the Sox? Do the Red Sox hope to balance out their lefty-heavy lineup?
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Which ignores the primary trade target of Triston Casas.
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Which is precisely why the Mariners prefer Mitch Garver over Masataka Yoshida unless they're getting an important piece back.
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Under this unlikely proposal, the Mariners would turn left field over to Luke Raley, who this year posted a wRC+ of 129 and 2.3 fWAR in 137 games (Randy Arozarena this year posted a wRC+ of 114 and 1.9 fWAR in 154 games, including a wRC+ of 122 and 0.9 fWAR in 54 games with Seattle). The Mariners probably like Arozarena better than his escalating salary. The M's essentially would be paying Masataka Yoshida's inflated salary for the potential production of Triston Casas at below market cost. Seattle would be saddled with two overpaid designated hitters although Mitch Garver could still serve as backup catcher. The M's hope that Garver will come in somewhere between his 2023 wRC+ of 140 and his 2024 wRC+ of 88, perhaps near his career wRC+ of 116.
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BTV says Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida for two years of righthand-hitting Seattle outfielder Randy Arozarena (with a projected 2025 salary of $11.7 million) would be a fair deal but that does not mean the Mariners would do the trade.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
harmony replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Ryan Jeffers has two years of team control with a projected 2025 salary of $4.7 million. -
Some blogs are cringe-worthy: https://sodomojo.com/mariners-might-have-perfect-buy-low-trade-candidate-if-red-sox-are-willing-to-deal-01jag9y1wms8 ☹️☹️☹️
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Of course if Arizona wants to move Jordan Montgomery, the Red Sox would need to top all offers from other teams. How much cash would the Red Sox be willing to add to a trade of Masataka Yoshida?
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Baseball Trade Values grants limited access: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?page=1 On the topic of Baseball Trade Values: We all bring our own biases when we question BTV valuations. Baseball Trade Values recently assigned Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh a surplus value of $19.8 million. Raleigh plays a premium position. Over the past three seasons Raleigh topped all catchers with 13.9 fWAR, valued at $111.4 million. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2022&season=2024&pos=c $111.4 million https://www.fangraphs.com/players/cal-raleigh/21534/stats?position=C#value Raleigh, who turns 28 years old next month, has three seasons of team control with a projected 2025 salary of $5.6 million. The past three years Raleigh's home run production has increased from 27 to 30 to 34 playing his home games in a pitchers park. The relevance of RBI has been questioned because of the stat's dependence on factors outside the hitter's control. Still, Raleigh drove in 100 runs this year on a club that for much of the season struggled to score runs. Perhaps the BTV valuation overlooked Raleigh's defensive skills that have been credited for the success of the Seattle pitching staff. Raleigh, who led MLB in innings caught, may receive a value boost from his recent Gold Glove nomination. The Mariners would be more likely to trade a starting pitcher than trade Raleigh.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
harmony replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Would Red Sox have any interest in Minnesota closer Jhoan Durán? The Minnesota Twins Should Explore Trading Jhoan Durán This Offseason - Twins - Twins Daily TWINSDAILY.COM As the offseason approaches, the Minnesota Twins face critical decisions about their roster and payroll. One intriguing question looms: should they consider trading one of their most dynamic... -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
harmony replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Humor and sarcasm are often lost on the internet.😁