harmony

Seattle PBO Jerry Dipoto in late September reportedly said trading from the Mariner starting rotation would be "Plan Z." https://www.mlb.com/news/jerry-dipoto-reflects-on-mariners-2024-season-future

Baseball Trade Values assigns Rafael Devers a surplus value of only $11.9 million with nine years and $266 million remaining on his contract. This year Devers ranked 27th among position players in fWAR, which is in line with his ranking of 28th among position players over the past three seasons combined. FanGraph valued his 2024 production at $33 million and his three-year production at $100.2 million. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2024&season=2024 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2022&season=2024 This year Jarren Duran posted his single-season breakout but Devers is the highest ranked Red Sox -- position player or pitcher -- in fWAR over the three-year period. Setting three-year fWAR as an arbitrary parameter for established production, the Seattle Mariners have three of the Top 20 pitchers and two of the Top 20 positions players. Four of those five Mariners are younger than Devers and Duran and all remain under team control for at least three seasons. Devers has produced modest surplus value under his long-term contract but the issue is whether Devers will continue to produce over the remaining nine years.

On what is that conclusion based? The Red Sox may have been in negotiations with all four Big 4 without submitting a winning bid.

Interesting trade proposals, especially in the remote event the Seattle Mariners sign right-hander Roki Sasaki. Nolan Arenado could be a great mentor for Marcelo Mayer, a fellow California native drafted out of high school. Arenado would need to waive his no-trade clause to move to Seattle's harsh hitting environment. Would Luis Castillo waive his no-trade clause to join a less-relevant Red sox club? The Mariners would need to scour the scarce market for a second catcher as touted prospect Harry Ford is unlikely to be called up for a backup role.

Baseball Trade Values has announced that its valuation numbers have been updated to "correlate more closely with what we"ve been seeing in the market." https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/ All five Seattle starting pitchers received valuation boosts.

This issue is whether the consumer clicks on the MLBTR link so the original source accumulates hits that support higher advertising rates for the original source. ESPN is doing well despite fiscals ups and downs through the years but newspapers, which MLBTR cites frequently, have experienced significant financial struggles over the past three decades. This is the humble opinion of a former newspaper journalist, journalism professor and attorney who taught 12 semesters of mass media law at the university level.

Indeed the Mariners hope to improve on this year's first base fWAR of 1.2 just as the Red Sox hope to improve on this year's first base fWAR of 0.7. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=0&season=2024&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&filter=&players=0&type=8&month=36 Indeed the Mariners hope to improve on this year's third base fWAR of 2.0 just as the Red Sox hope to improve on this year's third base fWAR of 2.5. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=0&season=2024&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&filter=&players=0&type=8&month=39 While we're at it, the Mariners hope to improve on this year's second base fWAR of 1.6 just as the Red Sox hope to improve on this year's second base fWAR of negative 2.3.. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=0&season=2024&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&filter=&players=0&type=8&month=37

FWIW as the market for starting pitchers heats up, Baseball Trade Values has upgraded Luis Castillo’s trade value to a positive $5.5 million. The upward trend may continue.., or not. Seattle would likely trade Castillo only in the remote event the Mariners sign Roki Sasaki.

On- the-ground news gathering requires resources. Jeff Passan does not work for free. information is a commodity with a certain value. The traditional media and their journalists expend resources to produce that commodity. MLB Trade Rumors pilfers that commodity, sometimes taking consumer traffic away from the original! source. Less traffic means less advertising revenue … unless, of course, the MLBTR links increase the traffic to the original source.

MLB Trade Rumors is a parasitic aggregator that lives off the hard work of real journalists. The real journalists don't object to MLB Trade Rumors if MLBTR provides only a brief summary and a link that increases the traffic at the original source. That's why a link was provided to Jeff Passan, a real journalist who deserves the credit. In recent years MLB Trade Rumors has expanded into some analysis of the underlying reported events.

The Red Sox reportedly sign lefty reliever Aroldis Chapman to a $10.75 million, one-year contract: https://x.com/JeffPassan/status/1863972109803741244

Teoscar Hernandez played in the outfield in all of his 154 games this year. The Red Sox may want a proven starter in a trade of Triston Casas, but how proven is Casas? Over the past two seasons, Casas has posted a 126 OPS+ and only 2.7 bWAR over 745 plate appearances. Seattle's current lineup hands first base to Luke Raley, who over the past two seasons has posted a 127 OPS+ and 6.0 bWAR over 861 plate appearances (despite concerning platoon splits).

Has anyone proposed trading Marcelo Mayer for Luis Castillo? That's a highly unlikely trade from the Red Sox perspective.

FWIW Steamer projects Kutter Crawford with a 2025 WAR of 2.3 in 32 starts after the right-hander posted 1.9 fWAR in 33 starts this year. Steamer projects Luis Castllo with a 2025 WAR of 2.8 in 31 starts after the veteran posted a 2.3 fWAR in 30 starts this year. Crawford is unlikely to be bumped from the Red Sox rotation ... and the Mariners are unlikely to "even bother" with the Red Sox.

Jack McMullen at Just Baseball Fans plays GM for the Red Sox, proposing a trade of Triston Casas, Braden Montgomery and Chase Meidroth for Garrett Crochet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gfsu5KnFP98 ... among other proposals. At 45:30.

The trade value of established starters may be on the rise. Or not.

The Red Sox apparently have missed out on 31-year-old free agent right-hander Frankie Montas, who reportedly has signed a two-year, $34 million contract with the New York Mets: https://x.com/JeffPassan/status/1863431691886338073 MLB Trade Rumors had projected Montas with a two-year, $22 million contract. The market for estasblished starters may be expensive this offseason. Montas and now 31-year-old right-hander Luis Castillo were hot commodities at the 2022 trade deadline.

Two Atlanta podcasters discuss the idea of the Braves trading for Boston shortstop Trevor Story: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYPiNUvh_xA

If something that is not needed is on sale for 50 percent off, is that a bargain for its buyer? The Baseball Trade Values valuations are probably too volatile as Luis Castillo's valuation went from a negative $30.6 million on November 8 to a negative $3.1 million on November 17 to a negative $6.1 million on November 20 ... before the Dodgers signed Blake Snell to a $182 million contract.

It's not surprising that a Red Sox fan and a Mariner fan would value each opponent's players differently. We should celebrate the diversity of opinion. Luis Castillo is not included among Seattle's estasblished, cost-controlled starting pitchers. Still, the durable Castillo retains value as a starter who over the past four years has averaged 30 starts a season with a 3.51 ERA. Castillo's "clear decline" still posted a WAR higher than 8-day-older Blake Snell has posted in multiple earlier seasons. Wilyer Abreu could well improve with age ... unless he does not. Steamer projects Abreu with a 2025 WAR of 1.8 after the rookie posted 3.1 fWAR this year. Again, the Red Sox and Mariners probably don't match up in a major trade.

A Seattle defensive outfield of Julio Rodriguez, Victor Robles and Wilyer Abreu has some attraction (with Randy Arozarena moving to designated hitter and Luke Raley to first base). However, Abreu is not worth the price of an established, cost-controlled starting pitcher. Marcelo Mayer is a fine prospect who, like all prospects, incuding Seattle's, face risky attrition rates.

One problem with Baseball Trade Values is that the site likely undervalues Seattle rifght-hanker Luis Castillo. Does Blake Snell's reported $182 million contract increase Castillo's trade value? Castillo, who has a no-trade clause, has three years and $73.5 million remaining on his contract with a vesting option for a fourth year. Snell and Castillo, who were born eight days apart, have each made 211 starts in their MLB careers. Snell has posted 24.5 fWAR and 23.4 bWAR over 1,096.2 innings while Castillo has posted 23.9 fWAR and 24.0 bWAR over 1,230 innings. Over the past four seasons Snell has made 103 starts while Castillo has made 121 starts. Their contrasting 2024 numbers cannot be ignored but at what point does recency bias creep into the equation? Over the three previous seasons Snell posted 9.9 fWAR in 83 starts covering 436.2 innings while Castillo posted 10.9 fWAR in 91 starts covering 535 innings. Castillo disappointed this year with a 2.3 fWAR but Snell has dropped below that level on multiple full-season occasions. A healthy Snell may well have the higher ceiling on a given day but Castillo has been more durable and reliable. Each quality provides value.

Boston fans pine for Seattle players more than Seattle fans pine for Boston players. FWIW Steamer projects Wilyer Abreu with a 2025 WAR of 1.7 in 113 games and Victor Robles with a 2025 WAR of 2.1 in 130 games. This year second baseman Ryan Bliss posted 0.4 fWAR in only 33 MLB games. In 2023 Bliss posted a .304/.378/.524/.902 line with 26 HR, 110 R, 86 RBI with 55 SB across Double A and Triple A.

Casey Kelly was 28 years old when this poster witnessed the right-hander getting shelled in a Triple A game (at the 2025 home of the A’s): https://www.milb.com/gameday/aces-vs-river-cats/2018/04/28/543354/final/box

Everyone has a trade proposal for the Red Sox: https://fansided.com/this-red-sox-mariners-trade-would-be-winning-backup-plan-for-boston-luis-castillo 😀😀😀