harmony

Save the prospects in a Red Sox trade for Miami right-hander Sandy Alcantara: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/179325 😃😀😃

Does the reported three-year, $75 million contract for right-hander Nathan Eovaldi reduce the trade value of Seattle right-hander Luis Castillo? Castillo has three years and $72.45 million remaining on his contract with a vesting option for a fourth year at $25 million. Eovaldi is nearly three years older than Castillo, but Steamer projects 2025 WAR of 2.9 in 176 innings for Eovaldi and 2.8 in 184 innings for Castillo. This year Eovaldi posted 2.7 fWAR in 170.1 innings while Castillo posted 2.3 fWAR in 175.1 innings. The Eovaldi re-signing cost the Texas Rangers neither a comp pick nor a player in trade. Castillo's no-clause does not help his trade value. In a heated free agent market for starting pitching, not all deals enhance the trade value of Luis Castillo.

The Red Sox are probably exploring the trade market where the asking prices may rise with the rising free agent market ... especially for pitchers. Will trade demands go up or down in the pitching market?

The BTV valuations for Luis Castillo and David Hamilton were in the ballpark but Hamilton is a highly, highly unlikely trade target for the Seattle Mariners. Trades don't occur in a valuation vacuum ... an assessment of needs is usually a prerequisite to any valuation.

It’s only December 10.

The Red Sox get the 15th pick in the July 2025 draft: https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2025-draft-lottery-results ... the Sox would have landed the 11th pick under the old pre-lottery system.

The point is that Seattle won't eat Dylan Moore's guaranteed 2025 salary of $3.7 million to take on at best equal production from David Hamilton.

The point is that Seattle would have little interest in David Hamilton's career OPS+ of 85 (92 OPS+ in 2024) when Dylan Moore has a guaranteed 2025 contract with the Mariners.

FWIW this year Dylan Moore posted 2.4 fWAR in 135 games.

Podcaster Jim Riley suggests a trade of Triston Casas for Houston left-hander Framber Valdez and two lesser pieces: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCuNECdZj44

Unrealistic offseason expectations produce annual suffering.

Seattle would never offer Luis Castillo for 27-year-old infielder David Hamilton, whom Steamer projects with a 2025 WAR of 0.6 in 50 games. In the utility role the Mariners already have Gold Glove winner Dylan Moore, whom Steamer projects with a 2025 WAR of 2.1 in 136 games.

The Boston front office is probably leakier than the Seattle front office.

Seattle reportedly will listen on Luis Castillo ... and any current Mariner: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nECI_Ti18AA

Alex Cora says little in a nearly 18-minute press conference at the Winter Meetings: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRpzgg3UsAU More from the Winter Meetings: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMQf0VKw-FA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hUkxJeVNsg

The Red Sox and Cubs were in similar situations in terms of 2025 contention and a need for a catcher. The Cubs reportedly face more financial constraints so it's interesting that Carson Kelly may sign with the Cubbies..

No doubt that the Mariners are listening to offers on Luis Castillo.

Perhaps that reporting is imprecise. Here is what the top beat reporter wrote: https://x.com/RyanDivish/status/1840164420204540316

FWIW Luis Castillo's value at Baseball Trade Values has jumped from a negative $30.6 million on November 8, to a negative $6.1 million on November 22, to a positive $5.5 million on December 2 to a positive $2.8 million today.

Seattle PBO Jerry Dipoto in late September reportedly said trading from the Mariner starting rotation would be "Plan Z." https://www.mlb.com/news/jerry-dipoto-reflects-on-mariners-2024-season-future

Baseball Trade Values assigns Rafael Devers a surplus value of only $11.9 million with nine years and $266 million remaining on his contract. This year Devers ranked 27th among position players in fWAR, which is in line with his ranking of 28th among position players over the past three seasons combined. FanGraph valued his 2024 production at $33 million and his three-year production at $100.2 million. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2024&season=2024 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2022&season=2024 This year Jarren Duran posted his single-season breakout but Devers is the highest ranked Red Sox -- position player or pitcher -- in fWAR over the three-year period. Setting three-year fWAR as an arbitrary parameter for established production, the Seattle Mariners have three of the Top 20 pitchers and two of the Top 20 positions players. Four of those five Mariners are younger than Devers and Duran and all remain under team control for at least three seasons. Devers has produced modest surplus value under his long-term contract but the issue is whether Devers will continue to produce over the remaining nine years.

On what is that conclusion based? The Red Sox may have been in negotiations with all four Big 4 without submitting a winning bid.

Interesting trade proposals, especially in the remote event the Seattle Mariners sign right-hander Roki Sasaki. Nolan Arenado could be a great mentor for Marcelo Mayer, a fellow California native drafted out of high school. Arenado would need to waive his no-trade clause to move to Seattle's harsh hitting environment. Would Luis Castillo waive his no-trade clause to join a less-relevant Red sox club? The Mariners would need to scour the scarce market for a second catcher as touted prospect Harry Ford is unlikely to be called up for a backup role.

Baseball Trade Values has announced that its valuation numbers have been updated to "correlate more closely with what we"ve been seeing in the market." https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/ All five Seattle starting pitchers received valuation boosts.

This issue is whether the consumer clicks on the MLBTR link so the original source accumulates hits that support higher advertising rates for the original source. ESPN is doing well despite fiscals ups and downs through the years but newspapers, which MLBTR cites frequently, have experienced significant financial struggles over the past three decades. This is the humble opinion of a former newspaper journalist, journalism professor and attorney who taught 12 semesters of mass media law at the university level.