harmony

Would three-plus years of 28-year-old Jarren Duran, working off his 2025 salary of $3.75 million, command a greater return in trade than four-plus years of 25-year-old Wilyer Abreu, who won't be arbitration eligible until after the 2026 season?

How will a defensively challenged player whose hitting is trending downward “bring in a big[] haul”? The flaws are likely apparent to potential trade partners as well.

Going into Friday's games, the Red Sox ranked fourth in the American League with an OPS+ of 109 and seventh in the league with an ERA+ of 106: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2025.shtml

Front offices (and players) generally avoid contested arbitration hearings. Triston Casas may be a polarizing figure in terms of value, increasing the chances of a contested hearing. To borrow a New York Times description, his idiosyncratic persona* may add to the uncertainty. Depending on an agreed-on 2026 salary, his trade value may increase if the Red Sox and Casas settle, providing a trade partner some certainty. * https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5798196/2024/09/27/triston-casas-red-sox-most-interesting/

A potential trade partner might be wary of the arbitration process with Triston Casas.

The rest-of-season wRC+ projections for Trevor Story and Marcelo Mayer at the MLB level are not vastly different (sub-100): https://www.fangraphs.com/players/trevor-story/12564/stats?position=SS#dashboard https://www.fangraphs.com/players/marcelo-mayer/sa3017114/stats?position=SS#dashboard ... while their prorated rest-of-season WAR projections are similar as well.

Triston Casas almost certainly will be tendered a contract for 2026 but the contract negotiations for his first arbitration season could be interesting. Given the wide range of his perceived value, and his idiosyncratic persona, the arbitration process may well go to a contested hearing. Or not.

The Red Sox are a winning streak away from likely postseason contention and a losing streak away from falling out of contention. https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds That's baseball.

The 103-103 record the Red Sox have posted since the start of last season is an improvement over their 156-168 (.481) record of the previous two seasons. Going into Wednesday's games, the AL East had only one team with a record above .500 while the AL Central and AL West each had four teams above .500. Nevertheless the Red Sox are only one game back of the final Wild Card slot.

Most rest-of-season projections have Jarred Duran returning near his career wRC+ of 109 from his current wRC+ of 85: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/24617/stats?position=OF#dashboard Duran's outstanding 2024 season was reminiscent of Darin Erstad's 2000 season and Jacoby Ellsbury's 2011 season. It's hard to maintain that level of production.

Assuming Triston Casas is tendered a contract for 2026, Casas will never play another MLB game as a pre-arb player. Casas will enter the 2026 season with three-plus years of MLB experience. The Athletics might very well trade Nick Kurtz for Wilyer Abreu and Triston Casas despite Casas' limited trade value. Baseball Trade Values assigns Kurtz a surplus value of $17.5 million, Abreu $62.3 million and Casas $0. https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?page=1&q=casas The A's would likely balk at adding Tyler Soderstrom's $43.7 million value to even out the deal.

Nick Kurtz has six more years of team control while Triston Casas has only three years of control. Casas is likely to be tendered a contract for 2026 but it's no guarantee. Casas indeed was a first-round selection with the 26th pick of the 2018 draft but Kurtz was the fourth overall pick of the 2024 draft.

What can Triston Casas expect to earn next year in his first arbitration season? Casas almost certainly will be tendered a contract for 2026.

From MLB.com: https://www.mlb.com/news/bold-predictions-for-the-rest-of-2025?partnerId=it-20250509-13479409-mlb-1-A&utm_id=it-20250509-13479409-mlb-1-A&lctg=7948633 😉

At Baseball Trade Values, Rafael Devers' value has dropped from a surplus of $23.2 millon on February 17, to a negative $15.5 million on April 1, to a negative $64.7 million on Friday. The current situation has diminished Devers' trade value, leaving the Red Sox in a tough spot.

Michael Lorenzen has been efficient with only 29 pitches while facing the minimum nine batters through three innings.

Oops ... good point. Would the Washington Nationals, whose postseason chances are listed under 1 percent, make first baseman Nathaniel Lowe available? This year Lowe, who turns 30 in July, has posted a wRC+ of 119 with a .340 OBP and six home runs. Lowe remains under team control for one more season after earning $10.3 million this year. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/nathaniel-lowe/19566/stats?position=1B Would anyone trade Triston Casas to Washington for Lowe and 33-year-old closer Kyle Finnegan, who has posted a 3.07 ERA and 12 saves this season while earning $6 million on a one-year contract?

Imagine the reaction of the baseball world if the Red Sox traded Rafael Devers for Joey Meneses or Jon Singleton.😁

Impactful early-season acquisitions are rare, but not unheard of. For the second straight season, before early June without trading away talent, Seattle acquired a one-time everyday center fielder for a World Series champion, Victor Robles with the 2019 Washington Nationals and Leody Taveras with the 2023 Texas Rangers. Last June 4, at the prorated league minimum, the Mariners signed Robles, who had cleared waivers before posting a .328/.393/.467/.860 line with 30 stolen bases, an OPS+ of 155 and 3.1 bWAR in 77 games with Seattle. Robles is currently on the IL after signing a two-year, $9.75 extension with the Mariners. Seattle on Tuesday claimed off outright waivers Taveras, who is five months younger than Robles was when the latter Dominican signed with the Mariners. The Taveras acquisition is more expensive than the initial Robles signing as the M's will assume the balance of Taveras' $4.75 million salary this year. Compare the MLB career lines for Robles and Taveras before each joined the Mariners: VR 530 G, 1,834 PA, .236/.311/.356/.667, 70 SB, 81 OPS+, 6.5 bWAR, 4.6 fWAR LT 505 G, 1,825 PA, .240/.291/.370/.661, 72 SB, 85 OPS+, 5.0 bWAR, 5.0 fWAR In his Mariner debut on Wednesday, Taveras drove in the tying run, stole a base and scored the winning run as the first-place 22-14 M's overcame a 5-0 deficit in a 6-5 win over the Athletics. The chances of Seattle catching lightning in a bottle twice are slim, but it's fun to speculate. With an early-season acquistion, the Red Sox could be as fortunate as the Mariners were with Robles.

Rafael Devers addressed the situation on Thursday: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/05/rafael-devers-unwilling-to-play-first-base.html

Alex Cora addresses the Rafael Devers situation on WEEI:

This year the Red Sox have played the Seattle Mariners three times, going 1-2 at Fenway Park in April. This poster looks forward to seeing the Red Sox in Seattle on June 18 and in San Francisco on June 22.

Trivia: Triston Casas and Tyler Soderstrom were drafted out of high school with the 26th overall pick in their respective drafts, Casas in 2018 and Soderstrom in 2020.

In the past week Triston Casas' surplus value at Baseball Trade Values has dropped from $25.8 million to $9.4 million to $7.7 million: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?q=casas&page=1

The American League averages: Innings 1-3: .729 OPS Innings 4-6: .694 OPS Innings 7-9: .636 OPS https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=AL&year=2025