harmony

FWIW Steamer projects Kutter Crawford with a 2025 WAR of 2.3 in 32 starts after the right-hander posted 1.9 fWAR in 33 starts this year. Steamer projects Luis Castllo with a 2025 WAR of 2.8 in 31 starts after the veteran posted a 2.3 fWAR in 30 starts this year. Crawford is unlikely to be bumped from the Red Sox rotation ... and the Mariners are unlikely to "even bother" with the Red Sox.

Jack McMullen at Just Baseball Fans plays GM for the Red Sox, proposing a trade of Triston Casas, Braden Montgomery and Chase Meidroth for Garrett Crochet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gfsu5KnFP98 ... among other proposals. At 45:30.

The trade value of established starters may be on the rise. Or not.

The Red Sox apparently have missed out on 31-year-old free agent right-hander Frankie Montas, who reportedly has signed a two-year, $34 million contract with the New York Mets: https://x.com/JeffPassan/status/1863431691886338073 MLB Trade Rumors had projected Montas with a two-year, $22 million contract. The market for estasblished starters may be expensive this offseason. Montas and now 31-year-old right-hander Luis Castillo were hot commodities at the 2022 trade deadline.

Two Atlanta podcasters discuss the idea of the Braves trading for Boston shortstop Trevor Story: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYPiNUvh_xA

If something that is not needed is on sale for 50 percent off, is that a bargain for its buyer? The Baseball Trade Values valuations are probably too volatile as Luis Castillo's valuation went from a negative $30.6 million on November 8 to a negative $3.1 million on November 17 to a negative $6.1 million on November 20 ... before the Dodgers signed Blake Snell to a $182 million contract.

It's not surprising that a Red Sox fan and a Mariner fan would value each opponent's players differently. We should celebrate the diversity of opinion. Luis Castillo is not included among Seattle's estasblished, cost-controlled starting pitchers. Still, the durable Castillo retains value as a starter who over the past four years has averaged 30 starts a season with a 3.51 ERA. Castillo's "clear decline" still posted a WAR higher than 8-day-older Blake Snell has posted in multiple earlier seasons. Wilyer Abreu could well improve with age ... unless he does not. Steamer projects Abreu with a 2025 WAR of 1.8 after the rookie posted 3.1 fWAR this year. Again, the Red Sox and Mariners probably don't match up in a major trade.

A Seattle defensive outfield of Julio Rodriguez, Victor Robles and Wilyer Abreu has some attraction (with Randy Arozarena moving to designated hitter and Luke Raley to first base). However, Abreu is not worth the price of an established, cost-controlled starting pitcher. Marcelo Mayer is a fine prospect who, like all prospects, incuding Seattle's, face risky attrition rates.

One problem with Baseball Trade Values is that the site likely undervalues Seattle rifght-hanker Luis Castillo. Does Blake Snell's reported $182 million contract increase Castillo's trade value? Castillo, who has a no-trade clause, has three years and $73.5 million remaining on his contract with a vesting option for a fourth year. Snell and Castillo, who were born eight days apart, have each made 211 starts in their MLB careers. Snell has posted 24.5 fWAR and 23.4 bWAR over 1,096.2 innings while Castillo has posted 23.9 fWAR and 24.0 bWAR over 1,230 innings. Over the past four seasons Snell has made 103 starts while Castillo has made 121 starts. Their contrasting 2024 numbers cannot be ignored but at what point does recency bias creep into the equation? Over the three previous seasons Snell posted 9.9 fWAR in 83 starts covering 436.2 innings while Castillo posted 10.9 fWAR in 91 starts covering 535 innings. Castillo disappointed this year with a 2.3 fWAR but Snell has dropped below that level on multiple full-season occasions. A healthy Snell may well have the higher ceiling on a given day but Castillo has been more durable and reliable. Each quality provides value.

Boston fans pine for Seattle players more than Seattle fans pine for Boston players. FWIW Steamer projects Wilyer Abreu with a 2025 WAR of 1.7 in 113 games and Victor Robles with a 2025 WAR of 2.1 in 130 games. This year second baseman Ryan Bliss posted 0.4 fWAR in only 33 MLB games. In 2023 Bliss posted a .304/.378/.524/.902 line with 26 HR, 110 R, 86 RBI with 55 SB across Double A and Triple A.

Casey Kelly was 28 years old when this poster witnessed the right-hander getting shelled in a Triple A game (at the 2025 home of the A’s): https://www.milb.com/gameday/aces-vs-river-cats/2018/04/28/543354/final/box

Everyone has a trade proposal for the Red Sox: https://fansided.com/this-red-sox-mariners-trade-would-be-winning-backup-plan-for-boston-luis-castillo 😀😀😀

Steamer optimistically projects Trevor Story with 144 games in 2025 after the injury-plagued 32-year-old played in only 163 games over the last three seasons combined: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/trevor-story/12564/stats?position=SS#dashboard

Would anyone trade three years of Masastaka Yoshida at $54 million for two years of Philadelphia right-hander Taijuan Walker at $36 million (as proposed at a Phillies website)? https://www.thegoodphight.com/2024/11/26/24306614/phillies-offseason-trade-ideas-building-depth-and-sustainability Given the glut of designated hitters in Philadelphia, the proposal may make even less sense for the Phillies than for the Red Sox.

This poster is a Kutter Crawford fan who witnessed two quality starts by the right-hander at T-Mobile Park in Seattle. However, Crawford falls short of Bryce Miller’s trade value.

No. The money saved on Logan Gilbert's projected 2025 salary of $8.1 million is not enough to find his replacement for three cost-controlled years (much less to address more pressing infield needs). The proposal ignores Seattle's strengths and weaknesses. The Mariners already have Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Victor Robles and Luke Raley at OF/1B, leaving little room for Triston Casas and Wilyer Abreu. Steamer projects Marcelo Mayer with a 2025 wRC+ of 88, suggesting that Mayer might not be MLB-ready.

The inclusion of Masataka Yoshida is a likely deal-breaker in any trade negotiations with the Seattle Mariners.

Depends on the definition of MLB-ready. Kristian Campbell has played only 19 games above Double A and Marcelo Mayer has played zero (0) games above Double AA.

The Seattle Mariners are highly unlikely to trade Luis Castillo at a negative value, especially in light of the five-year, $182 million contract reportedly landed by Blake Snell.

Like Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell, Seattle's well-regarded infield prospects probably are not MLB-ready.

Alternatively, Wilyer Abreu could be overvalued as a platoon candidate who posted a wRC+ of 75 after August 15. Each valuation is within the realm of possibility. Abreu indeed could improve the Seattle outfield defense alongside Julio Rodriguez and Victor Robles with Luke Raley moving to first base and Randy Arozarena to designated hitter, However, the Mariners have greater needs in the infield.

Will Luis Castillo's trade value be upgraded after Blake Snell signed a five-year, $182 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers? Castillo, who has a no-trade clause, has three years and $74.5 million remaining on his contract with a vesting option for a fourth year. Snell and Castillo, who were born eight days apart, have each made 211 starts in their MLB careers. Snell has posted 24.5 fWAR and 23.4 bWAR over 1,096.2 innings while Castillo has posted 23.9 fWAR and 24.0 bWAR over 1,230 innings. Over the past four seasons Snell has made 103 starts while Castillo has made 121 starts. Their contrasting 2024 numbers cannot be ignored but at what point does recency bias enter the calculation? Snell may well have the higher ceiling but Castillo has been more durable and reliable. Each quality provides value.

Masataka Yoshida would likely be a deal-breaker in any trade proposal to the Seattle Mariners.

Does Blake Snell's reported contract increase the trade value of Seattle right-hander Luis Castillo? Castillo, who has a no-trade clause, has three years and $74.5 million remaining on his contract with a vesting option for a fourth year. Snell and Castillo, who were born eight days apart, have each made 211 starts in their MLB careers. Snell has posted 24.5 fWAR and 23.4 bWAR over 1,096.2 innings while Castillo has posted 23.9 fWAR and 24.0 bWAR over 1,230 innings. Over the past four seasons Snell has made 103 starts while Castillo has made 121 starts. Snell may well have the higher ceiling but Castillo has been more durable and reliable. Each quality provides value.

The Seattle Mariners won't trade Bryce Miller for spare parts ... quantity won't compensate for the proposed offer's lack of quality.