harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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FWIW the ZiPS three-year WAR projections give Triston Casas 1.5, 1.5 and 1.7 WAR while giving Kutter Crawford 1.6, 1.8 and 1.5 WAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/triston-casas/22514/stats?position=1B#zips-3-year-projections https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kutter-crawford/20531/stats?position=P#zips-3-year-projections Fenway Park (and the AL East) enhance hitters' traditional stats and suppressed pitchers' traditional stats.
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The Seattle savings would be less with the escalating arbitration salaries for Kutter Crawford, who has a 2025 salary of $2.75 million as a Super Two in the first of four arbitration seasons. The Mariners would get another DH candidate in Masataka Yoshida, a bottom-of-rotation starter and a lottery ticket for the infield.
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FWIW Baseball Trade Values assigns surplus values of $29.8 million for Triston Casas and $29.7 million for Kutter Crawford: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?q=red+sox&page=1
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Last year Kutter Crawford posted 1.9 fWAR (2.0 bWAR) in 183.2 innings. Steamer and ZiPS project Crawford with 2025 WAR of 1.6 each in 134 and 147.2 innings, respectively. Thank you, everyone, for the meaningful discussion.
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Thank you for the feedback. Please be familiar with the Baseball Trade Values methodology: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/valuing-major-leaguers Locked on Mariners podcasters have mentioned that the Mariners have expressed interest in Kutter Crawford in the past. FWIW Steamer and ZiPS project Luis Castillo with 2025 WAR of 2.8 and 2.7 while projecting Crawford with 2025 WAR of 1.6 and 1.6. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/luis-castillo/15689/stats?position=P#dashboard https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kutter-crawford/20531/stats?position=P#dashboard ZiPS gives Castillo a three-year WAR projection of 2.7, 2.3 and 1.9 while giving Crawford a three-year WAR projection of 1.6, 1.8 and 1.5: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/luis-castillo/15689/stats?position=P#zips-3-year-projections https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kutter-crawford/20531/stats?position=P#zips-3-year-projection ZiPS give Masataka Yoshida a three-year WAR projection of 1.3, 0.8 and 0.4: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/masataka-yoshida/31837/stats?position=DH/OF#zips-3-year-projections
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Simply offering thoughts on a trade proposal by someone else at Baseball Trade Values.
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Of course, Luis Castillo is unlikely to waive his no-trade clause to join the Red Sox, especially now that Spring Training has commenced. Instead of Allan Castro with a BTV surplus value of $4.1 million, the Mariners would likely prefer Quinn Priester ($2.6 million) or Richard Fitts ($4.4 million).
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Thoughts on this proposed trade that includes two injured Red Sox? https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/185693
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
harmony replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
harmony replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Where does FanGraphs project the Red Sox with 85 wins? https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3 Roster Resource projects the following Red Sox lineup (with Steamer and ZiPS wRC+ projections): Jarren Duran (111/114) Rafael Devers (130/131) Alex Bregman (122/119) Triston Casas (123/124) Masastaka Yoshida (117/116) Trevor Story (81/88) Wilyer Abreu (108/109) Connor Wong (90/98) Ceddanne Rafaela (89/93) https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/red-sox Will opponents exploit the bottom of the Red Sox order? Will Kristian Campbell (115/119) and Roman Anthony (102/104) provide relief? -
Article: Triston Casas and the Price of Bat Speed
harmony replied to Maddie Landis's topic in Talk Sox Front Page News
Is the ceiling for Triston Casas a poor-fielding Anthony Rizzo? The 6-foot-5 Casas and the 6-foot-3 Rizzo are somewhat disciplined lefthand-hitting first basemen drafted by the Red Sox out of Florida high schools separated by 15 miles. Casas has posted 2.9 bWAR in 222 games through his first three partial MLB seasons. In his first three partial MLB seasons Rizzo had posted 4.4 bWAR in 296 games. Rizzo is a four-time Gold Glove winner who has posted 39.8 bWAR in 1,727 career games. The divided projections for Casas include the low ZiPS three-year projections of 1.5, 1.5 and 1.7 WAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/triston-casas/22514/stats?position=1B#zips-3-year-projections A year from now the Red Sox and others should have a better idea of Casas' value. -
Seattle is unlikely to trade Mitch Garver, who is a likelier bounceback candidate than Mitch Haniger.
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The Mariner probably would not prefer David Hamilton at his BTV surplus value of $13.8 million. Seattle podcasters today mentioned Hamilton as a potential 2026 utility replacement for Dylan Moore. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yhH2WcB-zo&list=PLwuw1WOff-eeWrIYDKFgSyWgsX5_uGLLu20. At 27:20.
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In order to reduce 2026-27 payroll, how much money should the Red Sox be willing to send in a trade of Masataka Yoshida and Vaughn Grissom to Seattle for Mitch Haniger? On Thursday Baseball Trade Values assigned Yoshida a negative value of $29.2 million, Grissom a surplus value of $2.4 million and Haniger a negative value of $15.5 million. Yoshida has three years left on his contract and Haniger has one year remaining. Grissom has five years of team control.
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Another team might be interested in a bulked-up Vaughn Grissom as a future third baseman. Steamer 600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each hitter, projects Grissom with 2.6 WAR and a 103 wRC+ in 2025: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer600&stats=bat&pos=all&team=3&players=0&lg=&z=1739418020&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard ... probably getting WAR credit as a middle infielder.
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From Wikipedia: Alex Bregman "was a batboy for the University of New Mexico baseball team, and in 2004 served as a batboy for a game against Arizona State University and his then-favorite baseball player, Dustin Pedroia. His best friend is Blake Swihart, who played for the Boston Red Sox and Arizona Diamondbacks. Bregman and Swihart played travel ball together growing up." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Bregman Bregman's father, Sam Bregman, is the current district attorney in Albuquerque, serving Bernalillo County. 🙂🙂🙂
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The Mariners might at least listen on the offer for Mitch Haniger despite the offer's implications for the 2026-27 payrolls when Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Cal Raleigh, Bryce Miller and others await salary increases in arbitration. Seattle is unikely to trade Mitch Garver, whom the Mariners view as the likelier bounceback candidate. Seattle podcasters discussed the possible fallout from the Alex Bregman signing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yhH2WcB-zo ... including whether this offseason the Red Sox were shopping Triston Casas or merely listening to offers.
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Trevor Story provides an interesting comp. Story was 29 years, five months and 11 days old in March 2022 when the Red Sox signed the two-time All Star infielder to a six-year, $140 million contract. Alex Bregman is 30 years, 10 months and 20 days old as the Red Sox are expected to sign the two-time All Star infielder to a three-year, $120 million contract. At the time of his signing, Story had posted 26.8 bWAR in 745 MLB games while Bregman has posted 39.6 bWAR in 1,111 games. Per 100 games Story had posted 3.597 bWAR and Bregman 3.537 bWAR. Regardless, the Red Sox lineup is stronger this morning than it was yesterday morning.
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Trevor Story provides an interesting comp. Story was 29 years, five months and 11 days old in March 2022 when the Red Sox signed the two-time All Star infielder to a six-year, $140 million contract. Alex Bregman is 30 years, 10 months and 20 days old as the Red Sox are expected to sign the two-time All Star infielder to a three-year, $120 million contract. At the time of his signing, Story had posted 26.8 bWAR in 745 MLB games while Bregman has posted 39.6 bWAR in 1,111 games. Per 100 games Story had posted 3.597 bWAR and Bregman 3.537 bWAR. Regardless, the Red Sox lineup is stronger this morning than it was yesterday morning.
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Perhaps Masataka Yoshida will play left field (with Triston Casas at first base and Rafael Devers at designated hitter).
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Will the Red Sox lose draft picks and international money for signing Alex Bregman?
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The Red Sox reportedly will sign Alex Bregman to a three-year, $120 million contract: https://x.com/Chandler_Rome/status/1889878592005480904
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Monster Territory podcaster Robbie Hyde and Baseball Trade Values founder John Bitzer discuss a hypothetical Red Sox trade for Nolan Arenado: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2tSP38B4wA
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Nick Pivetta reportedly will sign a four-year, $55 million contract (with opt outs) with the San Diego Padres: https://x.com/JeffPassan/status/1889859851721043974 The Red Sox can welcome a compensatory draft pick at about No. 77.
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Hours have passed since this obscure source reported that Alex Bregman and the Detroit Tigers have reached a contract agreement: https://bsky.app/profile/alvingarcia.bsky.social/post/3lhwj5vnqk22h The lack of confirming news renders the report unreliable (but interesting).