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harmony

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Everything posted by harmony

  1. harmony
    Seattle would not. The Mariners are highly unlikely to trade Luis Castillo (and have been unlikely to trade the veteran right-hander all offseason). Baseball Trade Values assigns Hayden Mullins a surplus value of only $2.1 million while assigning Lucas Giolito and Ceddanne Rafaela negative trade values of $7.1 million and $6 million, respectively. The proposed Red Sox package has a net BTV value of a negative $11 million, or $18.1 million shy of Castillo's surplus $7.1 million value assigned at BTV. The Mariners probably place an even higher value on Castillo, who is expected to again be a mainstay in the productive Seattle rotation.
  2. harmony
    Certainly not ... and Marcelo Mayer might not be.
  3. harmony
    Injuries aside, Marcelo Mayer may be a hard one to project; Last year Mayer rode a .367 BABIP enroute to a wRC+ of 142 in 335 plate appearances at Double A Portland. In 2023 Mayer endured a .277 BABIP enroute to a wRC+ of 99 in 354 plate appearances across High A and Double A. FanGraphs' eight MLB projection systems have Mayer with a 2025 wRC+ between 83 and 90 in limited plate appearances: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/marcelo-mayer/sa3017114/stats?position=SS#dashboard The ZiPS three-year projections have Mayer with 1.1, 1.2 and 1.4 WAR in 81, 85 and 89 games over his age 22, 23 and 24 seasons in 2025, 2026 and 2027: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/marcelo-mayer/sa3017114/stats?position=SS#zips-3-year-projections In 25 MLB drafts this century, only five overall No, 4 draft picks have accumulated more than 5 bWAR so far in their careers: https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.fcgi?overall_pick=4&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_jc=0
  4. harmony
    Marcelo Mayer has fallen off most Top 10 prospect lists after making brief appearances there two years ago: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mayer-000mar Keith Law at The Athletic lists Mayer as the No, 28 prospect: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6078454/2025/01/27/top-100-mlb-prospects-2025-keith-law/ Mayer ultimately may have a productive MLB career but his stock apparently has fallen.
  5. harmony
    If Trevor Story is cooked, could Alex Bregman be the Red Sox shortstop? Steamer projects Story with a 2025 wRC+ of 82 with 1.0 WAR in 141 games. The 32-year-old Story is coming off three injury-plagued seasons. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/injuries/_/id/18377/trevor-story Bregman was drafted as a shortstop and played 129 MLB games at that position although he last played shortstop in 2019. Bregman has played only nine MLB games at second base, most recently in 2018. Bregman's potential transitions to second base or shortstop are difficult to project. The move would open up second base for Kristian Campbell, Vaughn Grissom or a sporadic appearance by a healthy Story.
  6. harmony
    Is being "the privileged product of an elite private high school" a good thing or a bad thing? Depends on your perspective.😉
  7. harmony
    Does Triston Casas come off as the privileged product of an elite private high school? https://www.ahschool.com/broward-campus Casas was a childhood friend and high school teammate of New York Mets breakout star Mark Vientos, who is a month older than Casas: https://www.audacy.com/podcast/baseball-isnt-boring-50d1b/episodes/bib-on-the-go-the-bond-between-childhood-friends-mark-vientos-and-triston-casas-924da Casas has posted 2.9 bWAR in 222 games, including 0.6 bWAR in 63 games last year, while Vientos has posted 1.9 bWAR in 192 games, including 3.1 bWAR in 111 games last year.
  8. harmony
    Would anyone trade Triston Casas to the Los Angeles Angels for catcher Logan O'Hoppe? Baseball Trade Values assigns surplus values of $29.8 million for Casas and $23.4 million for O'Hoppe. Casas and O'Hoppe, who were born less than a month apart, each come with four years of team control. ZiPS projects Casas with three-year WAR of 1.5, 1.5 and 1.7, while projecting O'Hoppe with three-year WAR of 2.6, 2.6 and 2.6. In November the Angels signed veteran catcher Travis d'Arnaud, whom ZiPS projects with a 2025 WAR of 2.0 in 87 games.
  9. harmony
    https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=y&season=2024&season1=2024&ind=0&type=8&month=39 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=y&ind=0&type=8&month=39&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2022&season=2024 The NESN team had harsh words for Triston Casas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-spuT5EAnY
  10. harmony
    The 10-year, $313.5 million contract is long not only in duration but in number of pages or words. If Rafael Devers wanted a guarantee of playing third base, his agent could have insisted that detail be in the contract. Of course, the Red Sox front office would be unlikely to make that concession. If it's not in writing ...
  11. harmony
    A more encouraging comp might be David Ortiz in his age 27 season. Here are the platoon splits for Rafael Devers and Ortiz in their age 27 seasons: RD vs. RHP 377 PA, 24 HR, .293/.385/.601/.986 RD vs. LHP 224 PA, 4 HR, .240/.304/.382/.686 DO vs. RHP 386 PA, 27 HR, .313/.404/.654/1.058 DO vs. LHP 123 PA, 4 HR, .216/.260/.414/.674 In their age 27 seasons Ortiz posted an OPS+ of 144 and Devers an OPS+ of 134.
  12. harmony
    Rafael Devers' current contract addresses the possibility of a trade, awarding a $2 million bonus to be paid by the receiving team in a trade: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/18493/rafael-devers https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/boston-red-sox/ Was the Red Sox front office in contact with Devers' agent as the offseason unfolded? Seattle PBO Jerry Dipoto reported his front office was in regular contact with Luis Castillo's agent as trade rumors swirled this offseason.
  13. harmony
    It's hard to forecast how well Rafael Devers will age. At Monday's press conference, when asked point-blank, Devers said he weighs 240 pounds. Through his age 27 season, Devers has posted 22.5 bWAR in 980 games with an OPS+ of 126. Through his age 27 season, third baseman Pablo Sandoval had posted 20.4 bWAR in 869 games withj an OPS+ of 123. Following his age 27 season in 2014, Sandoval signed a five-year, $95 million contract with the Red Sox. Devers has nine years and $289.2 million remaining on his contract. In their age 27 seasons, Devers and Sandoval posted 3.7 and 3.2 bWAR, respectively, with Devers trending somewhat better than Sandoval.
  14. harmony
    Which is curious because over the past two seasons Rafael Devers has posted 3.4 and 4.1 fWAR, valued at $27.1 ,million and $33 million, respectively: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/rafael-devers/17350/stats?position=3B#value ZiPS projects Devers to post 4.0, 3.6 and 3.0 WAR over the next three seasons: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/rafael-devers/17350/stats?position=3B#zips-3-year-projections
  15. harmony
    Baseball Trade Values assigns Rafael Devers a surplus value of $23.2 milion with nine years and $289.2 million remaining on his contract.
  16. harmony
    Jared Carrabis reports that Kutter Crawford has mentioned the possibility that the right-hander might need knee surgery: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDXo5RPTD0Y ... at 27:05.
  17. harmony
    The ZiPS three-year WAR projections for Triston Casas are curious: 1.5 in 2025, 1.5 in 2026 and 1.7 in 2027. Compare the ZiPS three-year WAR projections for Vaughn Grissom (1.7,1.5,1.5), Richard Fitts (1.2,1.3,1.5) and Quinn Priester (1.5,1.5,1.6). Other projections are more bullish on Casas in 2025: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/triston-casas/22514/stats?position=1B#dashboard
  18. harmony
    Seattle podcasters have speculated that the Mariners like Kutter Crawford because T-Mobile Park would mask some of Cutter's shortcomings. As an aside, Crawford tossed five shutout innings in each of the last two Red Sox games this poster attended in Seattle: https://www.mlb.com/gameday/red-sox-vs-mariners/2022/06/12/662127/final/box https://www.mlb.com/gameday/red-sox-vs-mariners/2023/08/02/717161/final/box
  19. harmony
    FWIW the ZiPS three-year WAR projections give Triston Casas 1.5, 1.5 and 1.7 WAR while giving Kutter Crawford 1.6, 1.8 and 1.5 WAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/triston-casas/22514/stats?position=1B#zips-3-year-projections https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kutter-crawford/20531/stats?position=P#zips-3-year-projections Fenway Park (and the AL East) enhance hitters' traditional stats and suppressed pitchers' traditional stats.
  20. harmony
    The Seattle savings would be less with the escalating arbitration salaries for Kutter Crawford, who has a 2025 salary of $2.75 million as a Super Two in the first of four arbitration seasons. The Mariners would get another DH candidate in Masataka Yoshida, a bottom-of-rotation starter and a lottery ticket for the infield.
  21. harmony
    FWIW Baseball Trade Values assigns surplus values of $29.8 million for Triston Casas and $29.7 million for Kutter Crawford: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?q=red+sox&page=1
  22. harmony
    Last year Kutter Crawford posted 1.9 fWAR (2.0 bWAR) in 183.2 innings. Steamer and ZiPS project Crawford with 2025 WAR of 1.6 each in 134 and 147.2 innings, respectively. Thank you, everyone, for the meaningful discussion.
  23. harmony
    Thank you for the feedback. Please be familiar with the Baseball Trade Values methodology: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/valuing-major-leaguers Locked on Mariners podcasters have mentioned that the Mariners have expressed interest in Kutter Crawford in the past. FWIW Steamer and ZiPS project Luis Castillo with 2025 WAR of 2.8 and 2.7 while projecting Crawford with 2025 WAR of 1.6 and 1.6. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/luis-castillo/15689/stats?position=P#dashboard https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kutter-crawford/20531/stats?position=P#dashboard ZiPS gives Castillo a three-year WAR projection of 2.7, 2.3 and 1.9 while giving Crawford a three-year WAR projection of 1.6, 1.8 and 1.5: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/luis-castillo/15689/stats?position=P#zips-3-year-projections https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kutter-crawford/20531/stats?position=P#zips-3-year-projection ZiPS give Masataka Yoshida a three-year WAR projection of 1.3, 0.8 and 0.4: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/masataka-yoshida/31837/stats?position=DH/OF#zips-3-year-projections
  24. harmony
    Simply offering thoughts on a trade proposal by someone else at Baseball Trade Values.
  25. harmony
    Of course, Luis Castillo is unlikely to waive his no-trade clause to join the Red Sox, especially now that Spring Training has commenced. Instead of Allan Castro with a BTV surplus value of $4.1 million, the Mariners would likely prefer Quinn Priester ($2.6 million) or Richard Fitts ($4.4 million).
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