harmony

It's hard to forecast how well Rafael Devers will age. At Monday's press conference, when asked point-blank, Devers said he weighs 240 pounds. Through his age 27 season, Devers has posted 22.5 bWAR in 980 games with an OPS+ of 126. Through his age 27 season, third baseman Pablo Sandoval had posted 20.4 bWAR in 869 games withj an OPS+ of 123. Following his age 27 season in 2014, Sandoval signed a five-year, $95 million contract with the Red Sox. Devers has nine years and $289.2 million remaining on his contract. In their age 27 seasons, Devers and Sandoval posted 3.7 and 3.2 bWAR, respectively, with Devers trending somewhat better than Sandoval.

Which is curious because over the past two seasons Rafael Devers has posted 3.4 and 4.1 fWAR, valued at $27.1 ,million and $33 million, respectively: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/rafael-devers/17350/stats?position=3B#value ZiPS projects Devers to post 4.0, 3.6 and 3.0 WAR over the next three seasons: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/rafael-devers/17350/stats?position=3B#zips-3-year-projections

Baseball Trade Values assigns Rafael Devers a surplus value of $23.2 milion with nine years and $289.2 million remaining on his contract.

Jared Carrabis reports that Kutter Crawford has mentioned the possibility that the right-hander might need knee surgery: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDXo5RPTD0Y ... at 27:05.

The ZiPS three-year WAR projections for Triston Casas are curious: 1.5 in 2025, 1.5 in 2026 and 1.7 in 2027. Compare the ZiPS three-year WAR projections for Vaughn Grissom (1.7,1.5,1.5), Richard Fitts (1.2,1.3,1.5) and Quinn Priester (1.5,1.5,1.6). Other projections are more bullish on Casas in 2025: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/triston-casas/22514/stats?position=1B#dashboard

Seattle podcasters have speculated that the Mariners like Kutter Crawford because T-Mobile Park would mask some of Cutter's shortcomings. As an aside, Crawford tossed five shutout innings in each of the last two Red Sox games this poster attended in Seattle: https://www.mlb.com/gameday/red-sox-vs-mariners/2022/06/12/662127/final/box https://www.mlb.com/gameday/red-sox-vs-mariners/2023/08/02/717161/final/box

FWIW the ZiPS three-year WAR projections give Triston Casas 1.5, 1.5 and 1.7 WAR while giving Kutter Crawford 1.6, 1.8 and 1.5 WAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/triston-casas/22514/stats?position=1B#zips-3-year-projections https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kutter-crawford/20531/stats?position=P#zips-3-year-projections Fenway Park (and the AL East) enhance hitters' traditional stats and suppressed pitchers' traditional stats.

The Seattle savings would be less with the escalating arbitration salaries for Kutter Crawford, who has a 2025 salary of $2.75 million as a Super Two in the first of four arbitration seasons. The Mariners would get another DH candidate in Masataka Yoshida, a bottom-of-rotation starter and a lottery ticket for the infield.

FWIW Baseball Trade Values assigns surplus values of $29.8 million for Triston Casas and $29.7 million for Kutter Crawford: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?q=red+sox&page=1

Last year Kutter Crawford posted 1.9 fWAR (2.0 bWAR) in 183.2 innings. Steamer and ZiPS project Crawford with 2025 WAR of 1.6 each in 134 and 147.2 innings, respectively. Thank you, everyone, for the meaningful discussion.

Thank you for the feedback. Please be familiar with the Baseball Trade Values methodology: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/valuing-major-leaguers Locked on Mariners podcasters have mentioned that the Mariners have expressed interest in Kutter Crawford in the past. FWIW Steamer and ZiPS project Luis Castillo with 2025 WAR of 2.8 and 2.7 while projecting Crawford with 2025 WAR of 1.6 and 1.6. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/luis-castillo/15689/stats?position=P#dashboard https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kutter-crawford/20531/stats?position=P#dashboard ZiPS gives Castillo a three-year WAR projection of 2.7, 2.3 and 1.9 while giving Crawford a three-year WAR projection of 1.6, 1.8 and 1.5: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/luis-castillo/15689/stats?position=P#zips-3-year-projections https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kutter-crawford/20531/stats?position=P#zips-3-year-projection ZiPS give Masataka Yoshida a three-year WAR projection of 1.3, 0.8 and 0.4: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/masataka-yoshida/31837/stats?position=DH/OF#zips-3-year-projections

Simply offering thoughts on a trade proposal by someone else at Baseball Trade Values.

Of course, Luis Castillo is unlikely to waive his no-trade clause to join the Red Sox, especially now that Spring Training has commenced. Instead of Allan Castro with a BTV surplus value of $4.1 million, the Mariners would likely prefer Quinn Priester ($2.6 million) or Richard Fitts ($4.4 million).

Thoughts on this proposed trade that includes two injured Red Sox? https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/185693

Thanks

Where does FanGraphs project the Red Sox with 85 wins? https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3 Roster Resource projects the following Red Sox lineup (with Steamer and ZiPS wRC+ projections): Jarren Duran (111/114) Rafael Devers (130/131) Alex Bregman (122/119) Triston Casas (123/124) Masastaka Yoshida (117/116) Trevor Story (81/88) Wilyer Abreu (108/109) Connor Wong (90/98) Ceddanne Rafaela (89/93) https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/red-sox Will opponents exploit the bottom of the Red Sox order? Will Kristian Campbell (115/119) and Roman Anthony (102/104) provide relief?

Is the ceiling for Triston Casas a poor-fielding Anthony Rizzo? The 6-foot-5 Casas and the 6-foot-3 Rizzo are somewhat disciplined lefthand-hitting first basemen drafted by the Red Sox out of Florida high schools separated by 15 miles. Casas has posted 2.9 bWAR in 222 games through his first three partial MLB seasons. In his first three partial MLB seasons Rizzo had posted 4.4 bWAR in 296 games. Rizzo is a four-time Gold Glove winner who has posted 39.8 bWAR in 1,727 career games. The divided projections for Casas include the low ZiPS three-year projections of 1.5, 1.5 and 1.7 WAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/triston-casas/22514/stats?position=1B#zips-3-year-projections A year from now the Red Sox and others should have a better idea of Casas' value.

Seattle is unlikely to trade Mitch Garver, who is a likelier bounceback candidate than Mitch Haniger.

The Mariner probably would not prefer David Hamilton at his BTV surplus value of $13.8 million. Seattle podcasters today mentioned Hamilton as a potential 2026 utility replacement for Dylan Moore. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yhH2WcB-zo&list=PLwuw1WOff-eeWrIYDKFgSyWgsX5_uGLLu20. At 27:20.

In order to reduce 2026-27 payroll, how much money should the Red Sox be willing to send in a trade of Masataka Yoshida and Vaughn Grissom to Seattle for Mitch Haniger? On Thursday Baseball Trade Values assigned Yoshida a negative value of $29.2 million, Grissom a surplus value of $2.4 million and Haniger a negative value of $15.5 million. Yoshida has three years left on his contract and Haniger has one year remaining. Grissom has five years of team control.

Another team might be interested in a bulked-up Vaughn Grissom as a future third baseman. Steamer 600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each hitter, projects Grissom with 2.6 WAR and a 103 wRC+ in 2025: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer600&stats=bat&pos=all&team=3&players=0&lg=&z=1739418020&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard ... probably getting WAR credit as a middle infielder.

From Wikipedia: Alex Bregman "was a batboy for the University of New Mexico baseball team, and in 2004 served as a batboy for a game against Arizona State University and his then-favorite baseball player, Dustin Pedroia. His best friend is Blake Swihart, who played for the Boston Red Sox and Arizona Diamondbacks. Bregman and Swihart played travel ball together growing up." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Bregman Bregman's father, Sam Bregman, is the current district attorney in Albuquerque, serving Bernalillo County. 🙂🙂🙂

The Mariners might at least listen on the offer for Mitch Haniger despite the offer's implications for the 2026-27 payrolls when Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Cal Raleigh, Bryce Miller and others await salary increases in arbitration. Seattle is unikely to trade Mitch Garver, whom the Mariners view as the likelier bounceback candidate. Seattle podcasters discussed the possible fallout from the Alex Bregman signing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yhH2WcB-zo ... including whether this offseason the Red Sox were shopping Triston Casas or merely listening to offers.

Trevor Story provides an interesting comp. Story was 29 years, five months and 11 days old in March 2022 when the Red Sox signed the two-time All Star infielder to a six-year, $140 million contract. Alex Bregman is 30 years, 10 months and 20 days old as the Red Sox are expected to sign the two-time All Star infielder to a three-year, $120 million contract. At the time of his signing, Story had posted 26.8 bWAR in 745 MLB games while Bregman has posted 39.6 bWAR in 1,111 games. Per 100 games Story had posted 3.597 bWAR and Bregman 3.537 bWAR. Regardless, the Red Sox lineup is stronger this morning than it was yesterday morning.

Trevor Story provides an interesting comp. Story was 29 years, five months and 11 days old in March 2022 when the Red Sox signed the two-time All Star infielder to a six-year, $140 million contract. Alex Bregman is 30 years, 10 months and 20 days old as the Red Sox are expected to sign the two-time All Star infielder to a three-year, $120 million contract. At the time of his signing, Story had posted 26.8 bWAR in 745 MLB games while Bregman has posted 39.6 bWAR in 1,111 games. Per 100 games Story had posted 3.597 bWAR and Bregman 3.537 bWAR. Regardless, the Red Sox lineup is stronger this morning than it was yesterday morning.