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I avoided the ERA-/ERA+ metric because pitchers do not become more talented due to defenses behind them. But it’s not like one year of fWAR isnt without flaws either. The bottom line to me is - the Sox can use this off-season to upgrade their SP, but there are multiple ways to go so beyond the fictional #2 starter. The Sox will have 11 SPs on their 40 man roster once the off-season starts (a number that includes Houck because he has to be there from December through March) so they can part either a pitching prospect if necessary, although loving one or two to the bullpen is probably smarter. Of these 9 pitchers ( not listing Houck or the recently activated RHP Luis Perales), the ones I would consider trading (in order) are: 1. Harrison 2. Crawford 3. Fitts (but I prefer simply putting him in the bullpen) 4. Dobbins 5. Bello 6. Sandoval 7. Tolle 8. Early 9. Crochet Adding another starter isn’t tantamount, but it wouldn’t hurt. But rather than calling for some sort of co-ace, another (smarter?) strategy is build up the bullpen and just add an innings eater. It doesn’t agree with anyone postseason plans, but starting pitching in the postseason is different anyway and often includes quick hooks to the bullpen. I kept reading about Bello’s “awful” start, but 2 ER in 2 IP isnt horrible. Heck in the Cubs-Brewers series, that would be elite…

All so, nice call on the WAR. Crochet didnt make the top 5, but it was close. 1. Judge 10.1 2. Raleigh 9.1 3. Witt 8.0 4. Skubal 6.6 5. Ramirez 6.4 6. Crochet 5.8

Using Skubal and Crochet as the definition of aces is like using Rolls Royce as the definition of an automobile. Why not use a more practical example, like Philly had with Sánchez, Luzardo, Suarez and Wheeler, all of who finished in the top 12 in fWAR for starting pitchers? That definition of a #2, I’ll be blunt, is useless. Why bother having the label if it is solely a matter of opinion?

Last year that put pitchers from 2.5 fWAR to 3.4 fWAR on the #2 radar (minimum 120 IP). Connelly Early was worth 1.1 fWAR in just NINETEEN INNINGS PITCHED. Why would the Sox have to trade him for Joe Ryan? Theyre probably better off with Early. Brady Singer was worth 2.5 fWAR in 2024 and 2.9 fWAR in 2025. In between those seasons as a #2 starter he was dealt straight up for Jonathan India. But we can’t get one for Duran? If the Twins think Joe Ryan, who is about as special as a pitcher as his extremely mundane name is, is worth a massive prospect haul, move on. There are other #2 pitchers available for a much smaller return…

Keller and Alcantara are definitely available. Marte? My personal theory is that he is, but no rumors around that I know of. Seager and Eovaldi? Unlikely. Semien should be, but even without hitting he was worth around 3.5 WAR last year…

What about whatever prospect talent is acquired for dealing Duran/Abreu? Also what is a #2? I think most people say “#2” but they really mean “co-ace to slot behind your best pitcher”…

It’s like $4mill. Offer Houck arbitration…

You would if your heart was pure…

Thin-skinned? Ever been on a Yankee board?

No team is giving up a #2 for Duran. Teams acquiring Duran are doing so because they want to win now or in the immediate future. Teams trying to win in the short term dont trade away their second best starter..

Jazz didn’t knock the ball down; he caught it cleanly. Had it just been knocked down, maybe Hudson does send Eaton, depending how far it rolled away from Jazz…

1. No. Hyesong Kim missed the plate entirely and came back to touch it. 2. Kerkering had plenty of time to throw to first and get the runner. There were 2 outs.

Also, I don’t think Preller is all “Duran or bust.” He did move on to Ramon Laureano last year, a step down so large I assume bungy cord was involved…

Actually the post you’re replying to was about Preller and San Diego…

Not to mention, while r Refsnyder and Romy do excel vs LHP, all LHP is not equal. Fried and Rodon did not get 9 figure contracts because they couldn’t get right-handed hitters out…

I remember the days when Yankee trolls used to say things like “any season that doesn’t end with a ring is a disappointment.” Now they’re down to “at least we got through the wild card round.”…

Also possible we are reading too much into a 3 game sample in which the entire bench played every game…

On BTV’s model, he’d have to break up his team to get Duran. Or take Yoshida, not the best contract for a team actively paring salary in recent years…

My understanding is they use multiple projections somehow. Its a secret guarded as closely as the KFC spice combination that can make lumps of space age polymers taste like heavily salted chicken…

Big power bat without high Ks isnt happening. That’s a recipe for Cooperstown. The closest active player to giving you that profile is Juan Soto, and he won’t see free agency for 14 more years…

You can get some projected WAR from Fangraphs…

Assuming Boston trades their two highest WAR values in one move, that deal strongly favors MN, with Boston trading $94mill for $76mill.. Of course that deal would never happen, as Buxton has been very open about his desire to stay in MN, and he has the 10/5 rights to ensure it…

Or one Ketel Marte, who also has a surplus value of about $70mill. Unless they do deal him straight up for Marte (1 in 1,000,000,006 chance) I doubt they get back any package valued at $70mill…

Yes. They basically use projected WAR (in USD) vs projected salary…

Duran’s BTV values is off the chart. His surplus value is like $70mill, 6th highest among MLB outfielders, as opposed to only $33mill for Abreu. I honestly think it’s a little high…