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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. notin
    I gave justification for the Lowe comparison using WAR and awards, and didn’t use stats that didn’t exist at the time. While I do not agree his K rate justified ignoring the trade completely as a value comp, let’s find another. B-R lists Diaz’ most similar hitter as Alex Verdugo (How!?!?! I don’t get that one, but here we are). With the same control and less money, Verdugo was dealt for Fitts and Weissert plus. Could the Sox get Diaz for a similar package? If so, we’re looking at some sort of Mullins/Uberstine type thing here. (Weissert was reportedly a throw-in DFA candidate as NY needed to clear a 40 man roster spot.) Projections don’t justify anything close to Witherspoon. Does any trade in recent history?
  2. notin
    I have said multiple times they will move one of Duran or Abreu. And I reserve the right to flip-flop all off-season for on the better one to deal. But even if they moved both, they don’t need another OF. Despite that many have probably given up on Kristian Campbell, he isn’t dead. In fact, that he only has 260 career plate appearances and a $60mill contract absolutely keeps him in the picture. (His return to AAA was certainly statistically unsuccessful, but was he making adjustments and working on something? If so, it can definitely make his stats look worse in multiple ways.) Also Password is still on the team, but as he is a top 100 prospect, on the 40 man roster, and possibly 6th on the OF depth chart, it is quite possible he gets traded. Imagine if Campbell’s does take over LF. Password would be a top 100 prospect behind 3 players all signed thru 2032 at a minimum…
  3. notin
    Actually you did say the Sox should get him and also agreed it would cost Witherspoon plus for him. Myself and mvp called that a massive overpay. Sure I get you think other teams will drive up the price. It is certainly possible, but that doesn’t change what is a fair deal or not. And I don’t think so many teams will be tossing around top 100 pitching prospects like their Washington quarters. Especially since 1b and DH are not tough positions to fill without doing so. As I pointed out, last year Nate Lowe went for the bullpen equivalent of pocket change…
  4. notin
    The Sox could and should move an OF to fill a void in the INF if possible. But spending heavily on the OF is very unlikely. Some pundits have posed Tucker getting $500mill. I consider that debatable. But $350mill minimum is a guarantee. I don’t see the Sox spending that much at a position in which they are fairly well set…
  5. notin
    Witherspoon for Diaz is a redraft fantasy trade where money, years and position don’t matter…
  6. notin
    And as you are the one who suggested acquiring Diaz, I assume you support the Sox trading Witherspoon plus others for one year of Diaz?
  7. notin
    I’m sure they are going to WANT elite potential. But it’s unrealistic that they expect it. Diaz (whose most similar hitter per B-R is Alex Verdugo, which surprised me, too). Diaz has a Silver Slugger and been worth 5.0 bWAR in the past two seasons. Last year, the younger, cheaper Nate Lowe was coming off a similar 5.6bWAR over the previous two seasons, owned a Silver Slugger AND a Gold Glove and was traded by Texas to Washington for Robert Garcia, a 29yo fringey middle reliever. Not even the RP equivalent of Hamilton and a player not worthy of the 40 man roster of every team. Even if you like Diaz better than the more-decorated Lowe, I don’t see how the difference between the two can be justified by the gap between Kyle Witherspoon and Robert Garcia…
  8. notin
    The Yankees made blunders, too. In no way should Sogard have been able to beat a good throw for Judge to 2b. The Sox disc Whats got them there after Anthony went down; they pitched. And their pitching limited the best offense in the AL to 9 runs in 3 games…
  9. notin
    Sandlin might be the only player Boston protects…
  10. notin
    And none of those teams try to operate on a $50mill payroll. He makes for a decent strong side platoon for a small market team. Tampa should definitely be interested in Hamilton. Not sure they give up Diaz, but it’s also not uncommon for players in Diaz’ position to be dealt for A-ball talent that Peter’s out in AA, as well….
  11. notin
    The more I look into this, the more I realize Hamilton for Diaz is not as bad as you claim. Diaz will be 34, make $12mill next season, and averages 3.3 bWAR per 162 games. Hamilton will be 28, is still pre-arb, excels in speed and defense (at 2b), has 4 years of control left, and averages 2.9 bWAR per 162. (What do you always say about small differences in WAR?) Yes, Diaz is a better hitter. But other factors certainly matter. In no iteration of this pan-dimensional multiverse is Jalen Beeks as good as Nathan Eovaldi, either. Tampa may or may not accept a deal like this. They may get better offers. But Hamilton is absolutely a fit for their small ball style. I can’t speak for Tampa (though I still suspect they prefer Harrison), but this deal isnt as outrageous as it looks at first glance. But as you brought up Diaz, what do you think is a fair deal? Let’s assume no other team made offers…
  12. notin
    Money, years and WAR. Comparing Yandy Diaz to Josh Hamilton is probably more egregious than comparing David Hamilton to Yandy. Don’t forget it’s one year it’s one year of Diaz at $12million vs 4 years of pre-arb David Hamilton. We are talking about Tampa; money matters. Our last first baseman had a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger, but you described him as “released from a last place team.” Now Silver Sluggers matter? Hamilton has a rough year tjis year and fans treated him like he didn’t belong in MLB. But he was pretty good last year - worth more WAR than Yandy Diaz despite playing some 60 fewer games. See, and I thought it would be Harrison for Diaz. But you’ve convinced me; it should be David Hamilton. Despite that being a slight overpay…
  13. notin
    Really isnt that true about every pitcher? Giolito had some injuries in Boston, but he was actually one of the most durable starting pitchers in MLB before signing with Boston…
  14. notin
    Tucker really shouldn’t be on Boston’s radar anyway. The infield is where the vacancies are…
  15. notin
    In the last 3 years, Tucker is worth 13.6 fWAR. In the same timeframe, Duran is worth 13.3 fWAR. (Post is about Abreu, but he doesn’t even have 3 years.) Tucker could easily get $250mill, maybe more. Not sure I like the idea of trading Duran to replace him with an equivalent player just so I can trade Duran for some other need. Just spend on that other need…
  16. notin
    The only point that matters is the last one. If Philly doesn’t make the right offer, Schwarber isn’t going to stay. He didn’t hire an agent to get him a job that prioritizes playing on a consistent contender…
  17. notin
    First of all, 4 NL teams better than any AL team? Who? And Seattle as the best AL team? I will say, Toronto’s SP is more beat up than Boston’s right now. Healthy, they can hang with LA. But I don’t think they are going to be healthy even if they make it that far. The Yankees are a lot like the Dodgers. Both teams have solid lineups (edge: NY), good rotations (edge: LA) and exploitable bullpens…
  18. notin
    Early was outstanding. He gave up 4 runs in an inning where the hardest hit ball was a routine grounder to short (unless the SS happens to be up the middle for a DP).
  19. notin
    And the Yankees only scored 9, fairly low for the highest scoring team in MLB. They also only left the yard twice, 0 times by Judge.
  20. notin
    Casas turns 26 in January. Losing two consecutive seasons to injury is rough, but he’s not exactly as aging vet. Hes younger than Narvaez…
  21. notin
    Especially when the house gambled on Mike Conforto last off-season and really only has one outfielder (until the move Mookie back)…
  22. notin
    Tucker will be a Dodger. Book it…
  23. notin
    You’re not trading Duran for a stud pitcher either. Any team acquiring Duran is probably trying to win and teams trying to win don’t trade stud pitchers. Abreu might be easier to trade for a stud pitcher if said pitcher is expensive and/or has short year(s) left…
  24. notin
    I could see ranking them that way, but my point would be the gap isn’t all that big…
  25. notin
    I’m suspicious about any Alonso/Bichette/Schwarber signings. But I love the idea at a minimum of getting Yandy Diaz, whom I was mentioning all over the place at the deadline. Historically, Tampa is not a team that begs for top prospects in any trade but rather burns you by taking players often viewed as mediocre and expendable. BTV suggests fair trades might be for Kyle Harrison or David Hamilton. I’d assume they don’t want Hamilton, but I never thought they’d want Jeffrey Springs. And he would cheaply fill their upcoming 2b gap. But Harrison for Diaz? Probabl their preference. Certainly not the one I prefer, so probably the one they do…
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