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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. notin
    I said he was capable. But projecting a career year is optimistic, right? Seems like that’s how optimism works..
  2. notin
    I get the basic philosophy, but they take other factors into account. For example, when the Sox traded Betts, his surplus value was around $60mill. At the time, he was making $25 mill or so. Was someone really projecting a 10.5 fWAR season? He was certainly capable, but that still borders on optimistic…
  3. notin
    Well, in the last 2 seasons, Duran has been worth about 11 fWAR and Paredes closer to 6. At $8million per fWAR, thats a $40mill difference right there. The “units” BTV uses are worth about $1mill and called “surplus value”. So basically they are saying Duran’s fWAR converted into cash is worth about $49 million more than he will be paid in that time…
  4. notin
    That’s another issue. I prefer fWAR, but unfortunately B-R is more phone friendly so it’s easier to look up. Yes sometimes my criteria is that simple…
  5. notin
    Hayes has never been much of a hitter and never had an OPS over .659 in a season where he has had 100 PA. He is an excellent defender at 3b, however.
  6. notin
    I like WAR, but at what point does it become noticeable? Is 0.5 WAR a good improvement? Half a win is kind of an abstract concept.
  7. notin
    I am really not excited about Suarez. Granted he has been a very underrated player throughout his career. In the absence of power options, focus on OBP?
  8. notin
    The A’s are trying. They left a market they shared with another team. Vegas should be huge, and Big Amish could be a marketable player for them. I cut the Pirates some slack. They seem to be the poster child for a disinterested fanbase. Marlins are pathetic. Ditto the Rockies…
  9. notin
    I think Matt McLain can improve since last year was more about coming back from extended injuries. But the rest of that lineup beyond those two is weak…
  10. notin
    I think teams like the Reds are ruining baseball. I hate the Dodgers, but they’re not the team keeping payroll low start can pocket revenue sharing money that they don’t re-invest…
  11. notin
    Why?!? You keep citing the Sox had only one hitter in the top 60, but you prefer a roster that had none?
  12. notin
    Most likely someone is projecting Paredes to have a low WAR or a high salary. With Casas, it’s probably the opposite. And it’s probably the projected salary driving both cases…
  13. notin
    Demote Mayer? Pass on Arenado. Arenado’s best friend (Trevor Story) is saying Mayer reminds him a lot of Arenado. Sure, Trevor could have an ulterior motive (“He’s Arenado at third. No need to put Mayer at SS!”). But why take on $42mil for a declining Arenado when we might already have a minimum wage ascending one? Move Story to 2b and move on CJ Abrams? I prefer that over Arenado and Donovan..
  14. notin
    Talk to the folks who do AI Honestly, if Steamer projected 52 HRs and the player hit 48, would anyone call it a failure? I still prefer Paredes. Suarez is approaching an age where players can fall off rapidly snd without warning…
  15. notin
    AI models using Baseball Savant data have him hitting 50-53 home runs if he played ladt year on the Red Sox. If he signs wuth Boston for 2026, the model predicts 42-50 home runs, 46-50 if he can maintain a contact profile like he had in 2025, but more likely and age-related regression to 42-45 home runs. Impressive, but I have my doubts. Plus 42-45 home runs or not, what he does with the other PAs matters too..
  16. notin
    And here’s the problem. Do you think 1) the FO prioritizes stuff the same way fans do? Have they ever? Also the notion that the solutions the fans come up with are the only ones is kind of ridiculous…
  17. notin
    Following the Isaac Paredes arbitration drama? While the sides are only $1.2mill apart, Paredes - who doesn’t have a spot in the starting lineup right now - would push the Astros salary up to $238-239mill, dangerously close to the $244 limit they want to stay under. They won’t want Campbell…
  18. notin
    Chances are decent someone gets hurt and you could have both…
  19. notin
    If the Sox need more offense, catcher is not a bad place to add some. I have less faith in Narvaez than I do in Mayer or Anthony, plus catchers cannot play everyday so a good backup is essential…
  20. notin
    Romy has a spot as long as the Sox have Cora managing and one left-handed hitter in the lineup. The rest of the logjam will clear itself out as injuries happen…
  21. notin
    St. Louis is the only team in MLB that carried 3 catchers (Herrera, Pages, and Pozo) on their roster last year not counting Contreras. Not sure why they feel the need to have a fourth..
  22. notin
    Rushing might not be a backup. Hes a top prospect with potential to outhit Narvaez…
  23. notin
    Bohm - would definitely be available but he’s kind of mediocre by corner infielder standards. Painter - not even at gunpoint…
  24. notin
    Houston might, considering what they gave up for a rather nondescript Mike Burrows. The Dodgers should, but Friedman appears be more willing to trade one of his own children before dealing a young pitcher. Not the child that can pitch, mind you. So probably the boy…
  25. notin
    … and it was his idea to move Babe from the mound to right field…
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