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And even that is easily questioned. I think the Dodgers should be atop that list and maybe the Phillies next. Beyond that? The Cubs have glaring questions. The Brewers should be candidates for an “overacheiver” label if Boston gets one. I mean, they had an “All Star” pitcher that finished with 1.2 fWAR/O.6 bWAR. That’s pretty much identical to what Boston got from Connelly Early in 19 IP…

Never saud that. But it does throw questions into the superiority of the NL…

The Reds pitching was good. They were third in team fWAR, but not nearly as impressive with numerous other metrics. And they finished 83-79, which is not a record that screams “postseason” regardless of their pitching. But also - judging the league by the top teams is questionable enough. But Milwaukee finished with the best record in the NL. This is not a dominant star-laden roster. Their backbone for the last few seasons was their SP, which was down to one guy. If they were still in the AL, they’d be considered part of the mediocrity. And apparently Priester would be called an overachiever if he was still in Boston. Jet like in the AL, none of these teams are clearly dominant over the AL and most have glaring flaws. I suppose the Dodgers are probably the scariest team, but they’re far from bearable. But thank you for explaining…

An interesting thought. I have my doubts they could have, but only because those types of pitchers often want 7-8 years. But certainly some mid-range starter only worthy of a 3-4 year deal. Sandoval, Buehler and Hendriks over, say, Seth Lugo? Yeah we probably lost out there, even if Sandoval pans out…

Right. Much easier to insult than explain…

I suggested Murphy, but that was more about better use of Hick’s salary. I predicted Rushing because he’s been a rumored target before and is clearly blocked in LA, abd could certainly represent an upgrade over Narvaez. But do the Sox NEED a catcher? No. They NEED someone to replace Bregman. They NEED 1b/DH upgrades. They can win either Narvaez. One might argue they need to upgrade over Wong. I’m ok with Wong, who was far from a relevant weakness. There is a potential upgrade at BUC, but it’s not a huge need. In some ways, Wong has made a case for himself..

You honestly didn't say anything at all…

Why is the AL so weak? Was it due to their losing record in inter league games (14 games under .500)? This is a myth spread by folks who don’t watch NL games. If the NL is so superior, please explain why THE REDS made the playoffs…

Very much a dream world. The Sox won 89 games and made the postseason and I’m seeing that they need to add a 1b, 2b, 3b, C, OF, DH, some relievers and a #2 starter. And maybe a #5. The 2024 Red Sox won 81 games and made fewer changes. And it worked. If Bregman opts out - and that “it was an honor to put on this jersey” quote makes me think he is leaving that way, they need either a 3b or 2b along with a 1b/DH. They will have a lot of SPs on the 40 man this off-season, making adding one tricky unless they either push some to the pen or make some trades. I did find it interesting that Bello was worth 1.9 fWAR after 166 innings and Early was worth 1.1 fWAR after only 19. 1b/DH, a 2b/3b if Bregman opts out, and maybe a starting pitcher. And of course the typical MiLB deals. Will there be much else?

BA is but one offensive metric, and not much of one. OPS+ for them is Duran 114, Abreu 116 and Rafaela 95. Only Rafaela is below average, and he was never brought up to hit. With Anthony returning, I expect one of Abreu or Duran to be dealt…

A more legitimate concern. But that’s why we have Romy…

1. Thr OF is actually overloaded. Judging them by 3 games is not useful. 2. The Sox might look into a SP, but also might trade 1 or 2 away. They have 7 SPs on the 40 man roster and 4 more on the 60 day IL that will all have to be on the 40 man roster from December until March. I do think Tolle and Fitts belong in the bullpen, but I doubt it happens. 3. Get a 2b. Trade on OF for one. 4. I’m ok with that but offense isnt a catcher’s biggest job. I like the idea of a bad contract swap for Sean Murphy. Not sure Atlanta does, however. 5. The Sox bullpen lead the AL in ERA, FIP, xERA and fWAR and trailed on San Diego in those categories. I’m surprised, too. 6. Casas, Campbell, a free agent (Hoskins?). Lowe is gone. I’m going to throw the name Brandon Lowe out there as well. 7. I say Bregman didnt opt out. If he does, will the Sox even try? 8. I think they add a RHH bat, but probably not one as big as many want. With Casas and Anthony returning, the lineup won’t be the B team that played in the WC series. As weak as the Romy/Ref/Eaton offense was in the postseason, those were the players left standing at the end. Over 162 games, the Sox were the third highest scoring team in the AL. Sadly, also the third highest in the AL East. Critics say tjis was heavily influenced by blowout games. But I didn’t know the Sox were the only team that had those…

Mayer has a total of 136 plate appearances. He really shouldn’t be able to prove or disprove anything at that point…

Duran’s slugging was behind Abreu’s. His SB total was a disappointment this year, too. He seemed to just stop running in June or so…

Giving them away would be nutty. Trading them for fair value might not. And I think the Sox want to get Campbell back at some point. I do definitely think one player goes. Duran would be more expensive. Abreu shouldn’t be worth as much but a full year of pre-arb keeps him as a realistic option for more teams…

He is certainly a valuable player. And if a team is trying to improve via trade, the non-valuable players rarely bring back anything worthwhile. Duran’s value is largely from his offense. Over those 3 seasons, his oWAR is 12.6 and his dWAR is 2.6. 2.6 is certainly above average, but his number is largely carried by his 2.5 dWAR in 2024. His offense is largely carried by numbers vs RHP. He is still in his arb years and has not signed anything long term yet. The sites BTV uses for projections for performance and salary indicate he carries a surplus value of $70mill. He could and should be a sought after player, particularly by the Dodgers and Phillies, two teams with short term plans, high payrolls, and questionable outfields. Neither is likely to part with MLB players, but prospects that can be flipped works just as well. Abreu does not carry the same surplus value, roughly half in fact. So he is not projected to hit as well. But he is also a good trade candidate. His home runs would be missed, but let’s not go overboard there. We are talking about 20-25 plate appearances out of 450. While the power is nice, Abreu definitely brings a lot less to the plate in the 425 appearances in which the ball doesn’t leave the yard. Kristian Campbell is the X factor. Hes already been extended, really cannot play anywhere else, and it’s a safe bet the Sox didnt give up on the 23yo after 263 career PA, especially since he did win a Rookie of the Month award. The talent is there…

Can he field?

Definitely one, but it is possible both get moved. Kristian Campbell is owed lots of money and has nowhere else to play. And neither Duran nor Abreu would be given away. If you believe the BTV projections, they combine for over $100mill in surplus value. Tough to hold on to the type of OF depth the Sox have while other teams might be willing to pay for them properly…

agreed. And I doubt he will be. Especially since I predicted they would trade Duran and Abreu and they’re not going to rebuild this year. However if Bregman opts out, the Sox will need to fill up to 3 infield positions. Lowe is an interesting thought at 2b. Or at 1b. In haven’t seen him suggested before

I don’t see that level of overhaul coming, especially considering they just made the postseason…

My prediction - yes, prediction - is the Sox trade both Duran and Abreu. Campbell takes over LF, Anthony moves to RF, and Garcia goes to Worcester… I cannot predict to which teams Duran or Abreu are traded or for whom. But I will say the Duran trade will involve Dalton Rushing…

Theres really only 2 SPs worth spending on that folks on this board don’t hate. Gallen and Cease. And Gallen got off to a rough start last year. I suppose three if you like Ranger Suarez. Very talented, but seems to get hurt a lot…

On the bright side, the Sox have lots of trade candidate. Fans here might be frustrated with Abreu, but 3 WAR minimum wage outfielders with (multiple?) Gold Gloves are hardly a tough sell. Teams short on corner outfielders with limited budgets (Cleveland, Kansas City, Washington) are easy fits. Duran is certainly tradable. The Dodgers and Phillies both make sense. And a few others. (Please no “not the Dodgers! They always rip us off!” nonsense.) Should the Sox keep all of 3 of Early, Tolle, and Harrison? Chances are slim they all pan out. What about Crawford, who isnt dead? Could be an interesting offseason…

How do they earn it back and what do the Sox do until then? And what exactly did Mayer do to lose his job?

Well, the issue there is if Bregman opts out, the Sox infield is Story and…. ? Second and third base are both question marks at the moment. And he’s the only in-house candidate that doesn’t wear a utility infielder label…