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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. notin
    The easiest predictions are often reunions, especially for teams coming off seasons in which they were successful. So it shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Sox sign Bregman and/or Giolito. If they do bring back Bregman, then an affordable RHH 1b/DH type is more likely. That puts Hoskins on the radar. My only question would be - is Hoskins a better option than Josh Bell? Bell’s StatCast profile was extremely impressive. It didn’t translate to a superior season stat-wise but that can change for a guy clearly thumping the baseball the way he was. I spent half of July promoting another StatCast hero whose baseball card stats looked weak - 4’2” Andrew Vaughn. Vaughn did get traded and suddenly looked like the second coming of Jimmie Foxx, albeit an action figure-sized one. One thing that MIGHT work against Bell is he is not a true right-handed hitter. He’s a switch hitter whose best numbers come from the left side of the plate. But I’m not so certain that’s a deal breaker…
  2. notin
    But he might be the only American rooting for the Blue Jays…
  3. notin
    Very possible. Especially the younger ones. The Sox do buy into that on occasion (ex: Crochet), so Greene is a possibility. But they would be silly to go overboard to the level of some of the packages on this thread…
  4. notin
    Oh they could easily overvalue him. Looking at it neutrally, Duran has been worth 10.3 fWAR in the past 2 years, while Greene was worth 6.8 fWAR. Over the next 3 years, Duran could be worth 10-15 fWAR and might cost $30mill in salary. Greene over the next 4 years might be worth 12-15 fWAR, assuming he maintains his 150 IP, which is not a given. For roughly the same output as Duran, Greene would be paid $40mill. I think BTV is projecting both like this, which is why they are equal in a straight up trade. If Boston adds in one ranked prospect (Garcia or Clarke), it should give the benefit to Cincinnati. Of course if they overvalue Greene, they could easily hold out for more…
  5. notin
    Duran plus nothing for Lodolo, IMO. I said I would give Duran and Clarke for Greene. If BTV is correct and Password has similar value to Clarke, it should make sense that I’m not opposed to that substitution. Both? Now we are getting a bit pricey. It’s worth thinking about. Not like Password has a clear path to starting in Boston…
  6. notin
    I’m not getting two worked up over the inclusion of Meidroth and Wikelman in the Crochet package. Does anyone really think Chicago drew a hard line in the sand and said “look, the two top 50 prospects are nice, but we’re not dealing Crochet without also getting a high end utility infielder and a fringey relief pitcher that might get released within 3 years. And I am not budging on these demands.” It was probably more likely: Getz: It’s a good start but we could use a little more, even if they’re not exciting pieces. Breslow: How about some of our borderline guys that we can’t squeeze in to the 40 man roster? Getz: Why not? We have room. Our 40 man roster is so weak that we added the bat boy to it last year.
  7. notin
    They weren’t one last season?
  8. notin
    I don’t think one has to sit in on meetings with Cherington to know that he isn’t dealing Skenes for that package, just like I don’t need to have a phone conversation with Breslow to know he isn’t dealing Anthony. Skenes would be one of the most valuable trade chips in all of MLB. Safe bet Cherington treats him as one…
  9. notin
    Obviously only Craig Breslow can answer that. He still isn’t responding to my texts, although I should point out it’s very possible I guessed his number incorrectly. Lodolo for Duran isn’t a bad idea IMO. And I would think Cincy would prefer to deal Lodolo over Greene. You made the postseason last year; do you really need to trade your ace to build on that? Personally I think Cincy is more likely to move Singer if they move any SP from last year’s rotation…
  10. notin
    Was Crochet one of the 10 best starters in MLB when the Sox acquired him?
  11. notin
    250 IP isnt a lot of someone is claiming you’re a top ten SP in all of MLB. i go Duran and Clarke as my biggest offer.
  12. notin
    Being top ten in K/9 does not make Greene a top ten SP. ERA-/ERA+ would work, but that very low minimum kind of puts Greene unfairly close to Wheeler. It’s not right considering Wheeler kept up the pace for about 100 more innings…
  13. notin
    Crochet went for two good prospects (Teel and Montgomery) and two fungible AAAA low ceiling throw ins (Meidroth and Gonzalez). Could Greene go for more? Maybe, but probably not much. Certainly not replacing the throw ins with an All Star 5 WAR outfielder. I could see Boston going as high as Duran and maybe Tolle. Or Brandon Clarke, depending on Cincy’s 40 man roster space availability. I doubt any team gives up more than an All Star 5 WAR outfielder with 3 arb years left plus a BA Top 100 pitching prospect. (Both Tolle and Clarke were ranked.)
  14. notin
    “Might”??
  15. notin
    Trading Greene with four years left is NOT what Tampa does. And using what criteria is Greene a top ten starter? I have to think all of the ten best SPs in MLB have more fWAR in the past two seasons than Michael Wacha and average more than 125 IP in a season...
  16. notin
    The Reds most definitely do not “hold all the cards.” Theyre going to talk to multiple teams regardless. I would imagine many team CBOs will be suspicious of a postseason team dealing their cost-controlled ace, especially at a time when the division might be winnable. Teams might suspect the 4 years of Hunter Greene is closer to 2.5 seasons, and quite possibly just 300 IP given his history. Sure teams will gamble on him. But if their asking price tag is one 5 WAR All Star outfielder plus two BA Top 100 prospects, chances are there will be no takers…
  17. notin
    Skubal has been relatively available? Relatively available compared to what? Martian blood? Sasquatch’s cell phone number? Darth Vader’s long lost country album, the one where he covered “Achy Breaky Heart”?
  18. notin
    Do the Sox want Arenado? Theres your decline…
  19. notin
    Rafaela is not on their radar. The Reds want OFFENSE from new outfielders, preferably corner outfielders. (TJ Friedl in CF seems secure.) Duran, Abreu and Password are names that come up. Payton Tolle has been mentioned, but Boston might prefer moving another of their young SO - Harrison, Perales or Dobbins. Does Cincy have a 2b or 3b they can spare?
  20. notin
    Tolle is a roadblock on here, but the Sox might be willing. Is Cincy looking to move Greene, and, if so, why?Playoff team moving a controlled ace is a huge red flag IMO….
  21. notin
    Pretty much on the same page. They will bring back Giolito, acquire a RP, and fill two infield roles, 1b and either 2b or 3b. If Casas is ready then maybe a DH instead of a 1b. There will be a series of MiLB signings that we hopefully don’t need. But a couple of them (Eaton, Toro) were pretty important last year. At least one or two of their needs might come from a trade of an outfielder. Most likely either Duran or Abreu…
  22. notin
    If Breslow starts trying to substitute Abreu and/or Duran in Skenes talks, the only way it works is if Cherington is then allowed to substitute Mitch Keller for Skenes…
  23. notin
    So Anthony is untouchable but Skenes isn’t? It’s not happening. Especially not without Anthony. Pitt doesnt want Duran and Abreu….
  24. notin
    Can we stop with Skenes fantasies? Pitt has no reason to deal him and certainly won’t do it for outsiders with less control. If you’re not starting your deal for Skenes with both Anthony and Tolle, you’re not being serious. And before the “they know the Sox won’t deal Antjony” stuff as if it matters, isnt Skenes just ss untiuchable?
  25. notin
    Per BTV, Alcantara (2 yrs $38mill) has a surplus value of $10.1mill. From Boston, an equivalent package could include any one of Perales, Early, Valera, Romero, Cespedes, or Dobbins. No idea how Miami feels about any of them. Some might be worth the risk for Alcantara. Probably not Early or Dobbins. You might need one or both if you trade for Alcantara. With a contract worth $38mill over 2 years and a surplus value of $10mill, projections have Alcantara at 6 fWAR over 2 years or 3 fWAR per year. I think the Sox could get that from either Early or Dobbins instead.
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