2026 MLB post-Red Sox postseason thread

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

We need to strive to be first, not be first.  Everything else is complacency.

I disagree. With a limited budget, to plan an offseason to go from 28th to 1st would mean decimating the pitching staff via trades.

The theory makes sense, but the reality is JH is not going to let Brez sign Sato, Suzuki, B Lowe and a trade for DLC.

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, we failed to change with the times. One major change came about with the emphasis on having strong and deep pens. Working counts to get to the pen earlier no longer made much of a difference.

OBP is still one of the best correlations with run scoring. SLG is too, but it's not like OBP should be thrown in the dumpster. One reason we sucked on offense is that nobody was on base for our middle order batters. Sure, the lack of power and XBHs was a major reason for low run totals, but this is also a MAJOR reason we sucked.

.307 OBP from 1 slot

.303 OB from 2 slot (the modern most important slot)

(.325 from the 3 slot is also lower than needed.)

Granted, a .431 SLG from the 3 slot, .428 from the 4 slot and .421 from the 5 slot is horrible, but a bunch more solo homers wasn't going to jump our rankings either.

Our OBP was like 12th, to say yeah but what about our OBP from leadoff hitters feels a little like cherry picking.  OBP should not be thrown out, but slg has passed it in terms of importance, and thats a new thing.  Partly because of reasons you mention, that its not as advantageous now to get to the bullpen.  I dont like when other teams tke the starter out before his third time through. Im salivating when they are leaving their starter in. Thtas part of it. So is the decrease in being able to rely on the guy behind you to keep it moving , because we've entered a pitchers era.

Third the approach is all different.  When you go up there you are looking for fastballs in your red zones and looking to take advantage when you get them. Not foul off stuff, extend counts, try to draw walks.  You should go in there looking to swing. OBP approach is worse than OBP itself. An OBP approach is letting the ball get deep, work counts, let the pitcher get over some meatballs early in count, its an overall scared approach.

Hot players dont go up there scared.  OBP is playing scared.  Trust your pitch recognition, go up there hungry, hunt for your pitch, and drive it when you get it.  I cant hit lefties.  Never could. Against lefties, Im never swinging at the first pitch. Im trying to foul. Im trying to draw a walk.  Cuz Im scared money at the plate.  Against a righty Im thking, cmon gimme my pitch, gimme my pitch, gimme my pitch.

My red zone was always low.  If I get a low fastball when im looking for a fastball, im not worried if its barely in the zone or barely out of the zone.  If its not in the dirt, Im swinging and Im barreling it.  Cuz I got what I was looking for.  And if its a single, Im disappointed.  Extra base hits are never disappointing.  Singles and walks are oftentimes disappointed, like for example if you got a fastball in a redzone at any time in the at bat.

Guys end up drawing walks and are disappointed with them all the time. Because they missed something earlier in teh at bat they should have punished.

Its just not the game it use to be.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I think we need to add a star/elite bat this winter, but with the pitching and defense we have, I can understand fans thinking Mead, Rutschman, a healthy Anthony and maybe some turnarounds by some of the returning vets who declined last year can and should be enough.

Not to cherrypick your thoughtful posts today, but do you really think any fans really truly think the returning offense "should be enough?"

I'd venture that no matter how exciting the summers were the past two years, most diehard Red Sox fans cannot mouthwash away the putrid taste in their mouths of how their postseasons ended.

[drewski6]

Its about keyholing your red zones, not trying to decide mid pitch if its a ball or a strike.  You keyhole your redzones and jump on everything straight that is in your keyholed redzone. This is modern philosophy. You dont even cover the whole plate.

[drewski6]

Just now, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Not to cherrypick your thoughtful posts today, but do you really think any fans really truly think the returning offense "should be enough?"

I'd venture that no matter how exciting the summers were the past two years, most diehard Red Sox fans cannot mouthwash away the putrid taste in their mouths of how their postseasons ended.

I assure you Joe Brady thinks the returning offense is more than enough and hes salivating at trading some O for pitching.  Or staying below the lux tax lol

[Old Red]

40 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

4.1, then bring in a reliever who struggled the past entire month instead of trusting your proven veteran starter...

... though after seeing Cleveland's bullpen disintegrate Red Sox bats the final week, I said no one will want to play the Guards in the postseason (they don't have a key set-up man pitching on a broken leg).

Yea that 4.1 being Miller Time for the 2nd night in a row must have been the playoff play book that Dick Tracy went to.🤭

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Our OBP was like 12th, to say yeah but what about our OBP from leadoff hitters feels a little like cherry picking.  OBP should not be thrown out, but slg has passed it in terms of importance, and thats a new thing.  Partly because of reasons you mention, that its not as advantageous now to get to the bullpen.  I dont like when other teams tke the starter out before his third time through. Im salivating when they are leaving their starter in. Thtas part of it. So is the decrease in being able to rely on the guy behind you to keep it moving , because we've entered a pitchers era.

Third the approach is all different.  When you go up there you are looking for fastballs in your red zones and looking to take advantage when you get them. Not foul off stuff, extend counts, try to draw walks.  You should go in there looking to swing. OBP approach is worse than OBP itself. An OBP approach is letting the ball get deep, work counts, let the pitcher get over some meatballs early in count, its an overall scared approach.

Hot players dont go up there scared.  OBP is playing scared.  Trust your pitch recognition, go up there hungry, hunt for your pitch, and drive it when you get it.  I cant hit lefties.  Never could. Against lefties, Im never swinging at the first pitch. Im trying to foul. Im trying to draw a walk.  Cuz Im scared money at the plate.  Against a righty Im thking, cmon gimme my pitch, gimme my pitch, gimme my pitch.

My red zone was always low.  If I get a low fastball when im looking for a fastball, im not worried if its barely in the zone or barely out of the zone.  If its not in the dirt, Im swinging and Im barreling it.  Cuz I got what I was looking for.  And if its a single, Im disappointed.  Extra base hits are never disappointing.  Singles and walks are oftentimes disappointed, like for example if you got a fastball in a redzone at any time in the at bat.

Guys end up drawing walks and are disappointed with them all the time. Because they missed something earlier in teh at bat they should have punished.

Its just not the game it use to be.

The game has changed but you'll never convince me we can win by leading the league in solo homers. We need a healthy mix of OBP and SLG, and IT DOES HELP to have high OBP up before your high SLG batters.

We had too few of both, and your focus seems unbalanced to me.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Not to cherrypick your thoughtful posts today, but do you really think any fans really truly think the returning offense "should be enough?"

I'd venture that no matter how exciting the summers were the past two years, most diehard Red Sox fans cannot mouthwash away the putrid taste in their mouths of how their postseasons ended.

Yea the magic carpet ride had ended, and so had y the constant winning. A feeble attempt at best.

[drewski6]

The advantage of being ahead in the count is that it allows you to keyhole your red zone.  If your redzone is inner half, and you get a ball on the outer half, you have the luxury of passing on it because then the count runs to 2-1.

But you dont get the pitch that you were looking for, but pass on it, because its a ball.  Thats silly. Im going to pass on my pitch, to get ahead in the count, because maybe then....Ill get my pitch.  Um , you just got it, though

On a 0-0 count, Im not swinging at high stuff. I dont care if its a strike or a ball.  Im swinging at low stuff.  I dont care if its a strike or a ball. Because Im an excellent low ball hitter.  Always have been.

You hunt your pitch.  ANd when you get it, you meet it out in front of the plate and drive it. 

AN OBP approach does none of those things.  Youre letting the ball get deep and trying to slap or muscle it into a hole for a single.  Or make your swing decisions later, so you can pick up that its a slider and let it run outside the plate for a ball.  But its not as effective this way.

Its not about OBP vs SLG. Its about the OBP mindset vs the SLG mindset.  Are you going to control the at-bat? Are you going to lead? Or are you going to let the pitcher lead?  

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The game has changed but you'll never convince me we can win by leading the league in solo homers. We need a healthy mix of OBP and SLG, and IT DOES HELP to have high OBP up before your high SLG batters.

We had too few of both, and your focus seems unbalanced to me.

I dont think looking for a walk is a good idea unless you are a defense first player hitting ninth.  Its not saying I think solo HRs are better than baserunners. Its because I think being passive is a bad idea, and you need to jump the pitcher when you get something where you are looking.

You take your walks. You dont hunt em. You dont celebrate em.

[drewski6]

Mindset. Mindset. Mindset.

[drewski6]

Im swinging at every fastball that is in a place where I am looking. That could result in singles if its a sinker and I smash it through the infield.  And thats an end result win for OBP.  BUt thats not what Im looking for.  Im looking for my pitch and when I get it , to turn it into extra bases.  I want to see the back of their outfielders jerseys not the front.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The game has changed but you'll never convince me we can win by leading the league in solo homers. We need a healthy mix of OBP and SLG, and IT DOES HELP to have high OBP up before your high SLG batters.

We had too few of both, and your focus seems unbalanced to me.

 No you can’t win by just solo homers, but at least a solo homer is scoring a run, where as OBP, and OPS doesn’t necessarily do so. Just the difference at the very Least between Alonso’s 43 HR, and Con Man’s 27 HR is a 16 rum difference, and that is at the very least. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

The game has changed but you'll never convince me we can win by leading the league in solo homers. We need a healthy mix of OBP and SLG, and IT DOES HELP to have high OBP up before your high SLG batters.

We had too few of both, and your focus seems unbalanced to me.

I've been saying all month to add an OBP guy to bat in front of all our returning hitters with their newly developed slugging that Brez is going to teach them this winter.

Why not Arraez? He's only a 3-time batting champ, with crowns in both leagues. Alvarez won the AL batting title this year with a BA of .316. Arraez in his 8-year career has a lifetime BA of .316.

... but where would we put him? How about right in front of Contreras in the batting order.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I dont think looking for a walk is a good idea unless you are a defense first player hitting ninth.  Its not saying I think solo HRs are better than baserunners. Its because I think being passive is a bad idea, and you need to jump the pitcher when you get something where you are looking.

You take your walks. You dont hunt em. You dont celebrate em.

Agree the biggest thing they mention about little A is his OBP, because he can draw some walks when he’s not check swinging, and striking out.

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I've been saying all month to add an OBP guy to bat in front of all our returning hitters with their newly developed slugging that Brez is going to teach them this winter.

Why not Arraez? He's only a 3-time batting champ, with crowns in both leagues. Alvarez won the AL batting title this year with a BA of .316. Arraez in his 8-year career has a lifetime BA of .316.

... but where would we put him? How about right in front of Contreras in the batting order.

Arraez doesnt draw a ton of walks, but he hits a lot of doubles and tiples.  Hes aggressive in the box. Thats why hes good.  Im not against guys with high OBPs. Im against being passive at the plate.  Its not a recipe for confidence. A batter who isnt confident is already out.

Try approaching women without any confidence, see where that gets ya.  You know this, Im sure.

I want guys who approach the at-bat like us lady killers approach women. Hungry and confident.

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Agree the biggest thing they mention about little A is his OBP, because he can draw some walks when he’s not check swinging, and striking out.

Hed be better if he jumped on early count fastballs more.  Hed draw less walks, but hed do a lot more damage. And its no guarantee that his OBP would go down if he stopped f'ing letting mistake pitches go by.

Nothing sticks with you more than leaving the bat on your shoulders when you get a meatball. Even if you end up standing at first base cuz you drew a walk.  You are still thinking of that pitch you didnt swing at in bed that night.  Even the next night.

[drewski6]

You miss 100% of the balls you dont swing at.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Not to cherrypick your thoughtful posts today, but do you really think any fans really truly think the returning offense "should be enough?"

I'd venture that no matter how exciting the summers were the past two years, most diehard Red Sox fans cannot mouthwash away the putrid taste in their mouths of how their postseasons ended.

I'm not sure how many fans have faith in the offense returning as is it was ending the season, but with a healthy Anthony and Mead and maybe a return to age progression trends of our core foundation of everyday players, who are mostly pre-prime and prime ages, the O should be significantly better.

The issue, to me is the "significant" is a loaded word that could mean moving from bottom 5 to 15th, which is not enough. Maybe a few fans and posters project us to be as high as 10th in runs scored with no changes made, but I'll disagree with them. If everything goes right, maybe we can approach 10th in runs, but basing a winter plan on 99% health and no serious declines is a losing plan.

Let me ask you and others this: would this be enough to have a good enough offense to combine with a top 3 pitching staff and top 8 defense to advance in the playoffs?

.850 OPS Contreras (50 point drop from '26)

.850 Mead over 600 PAs (his OPS last year)

.800 Abreu (a career high but not by much)

.800 Anthony (.859 in 2025 do less but over 550+ PAs)

.775 Rutschman (might be my biggest ask here)

.775 Rafaela (stops improving and just repeats '26)

.750 Durbin (a 40 point gain over '26)

.750 Yoshida (what he did in 2026 but for 450+)

That's 8 of 9 batters. No way they all do this, but none are unreasonable suggestions.

I've not even listed ...

.993 Jones in '26

.826 Romy in '25

.823 Gapser in '26

.800 Casas in '24 (.856 in '23 with 500 PAs)

.774 Duran in '25 (I won't bring up '24)

.741 Story in '25 (led team in HRs, RBI and SBs)

.727 Seigler & Sogard in '26

There is some room for optimism about the offense as is, but I'm never for being complacent. We need to strive to continuously improve, and I've always felt improving your weakest spot is the best place to focus on.

To me, that is the lack of a take charge, big bopper bat.

[mvp 78]

35 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I disagree. With a limited budget, to plan an offseason to go from 28th to 1st would mean decimating the pitching staff via trades.

The theory makes sense, but the reality is JH is not going to let Brez sign Sato, Suzuki, B Lowe and a trade for DLC.

Gray -> FA

Crochet takes Gray's spot in the rotation

Sandoval/IKF -> FA

40M under the 2nd threshhold

Deal Duran to give more cushion. 

48M under the 2nd

Trade Masa at 66% of the contract

52M under the 2nd

They could probably sign two guys, but not three IMO. Don't think they have the appetite to go over that threshhold. 

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure how many fans have faith in the offense returning as is it was ending the season, but with a healthy Anthony and Mead and maybe a return to age progression trends of our core foundation of everyday players, who are mostly pre-prime and prime ages, the O should be significantly better.

The issue, to me is the "significant" is a loaded word that could mean moving from bottom 5 to 15th, which is not enough. Maybe a few fans and posters project us to be as high as 10th in runs scored with no changes made, but I'll disagree with them. If everything goes right, maybe we can approach 10th in runs, but basing a winter plan on 99% health and no serious declines is a losing plan.

Let me ask you and others this: would this be enough to have a good enough offense to combine with a top 3 pitching staff and top 8 defense to advance in the playoffs?

.850 OPS Contreras (50 point drop from '26)

.850 Mead over 600 PAs (his OPS last year)

.800 Abreu (a career high but not by much)

.800 Anthony (.859 in 2025 do less but over 550+ PAs)

.775 Rutschman (might be my biggest ask here)

.775 Rafaela (stops improving and just repeats '26)

.750 Durbin (a 40 point gain over '26)

.750 Yoshida (what he did in 2026 but for 450+)

That's 8 of 9 batters. No way they all do this, but none are unreasonable suggestions.

I've not even listed ...

.993 Jones in '26

.826 Romy in '25

.823 Gapser in '26

.800 Casas in '24 (.856 in '23 with 500 PAs)

.774 Duran in '25 (I won't bring up '24)

.741 Story in '25 (led team in HRs, RBI and SBs)

.727 Seigler & Sogard in '26

There is some room for optimism about the offense as is, but I'm never for being complacent. We need to strive to continuously improve, and I've always felt improving your weakest spot is the best place to focus on.

To me, that is the lack of a take charge, big bopper bat.

Like I said earlier you guys are so hung up on OPS like it’s the end all be all. Con Man had less HR, RBI, and TB than Flintstone, and Alonso by a pretty good margin, but had a higher Ops with help from his being hit 24 times. Break it down, and then you may have a point, but just talking about OPS doesn’t have much of a meaning IMO. Like I always say I like things that go up on the scoreboard in real time.

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Yea the magic carpet ride had ended, and so had y the constant winning. A feeble attempt at best.

To me, the most interesting part of that 32-5 stretch was who was playing at the time. We has Monasterio, IKF and Cheng at SS, IKF and Seigler at 2B and Narvaez catching. In some ways those line-ups look worse than our playoff ones.

Amazingly, our leadoff hitter for most of those games was Seigler, but we also saw Eaton, Yoshida, Gasper and Jones. Our #2 batter was almost always Rafaela. Abreu 3rd and Contreras 4th was the norm, but look who batted 5th mostly: Duran, Durbin, Yoshida and even Romy. 6th was mostly Durbin with Monasterio and Romy getting some time.

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I've been saying all month to add an OBP guy to bat in front of all our returning hitters with their newly developed slugging that Brez is going to teach them this winter.

Why not Arraez? He's only a 3-time batting champ, with crowns in both leagues. Alvarez won the AL batting title this year with a BA of .316. Arraez in his 8-year career has a lifetime BA of .316.

... but where would we put him? How about right in front of Contreras in the batting order.

High BA, but not a great BB rate. Suzuki had a higher OBP, more TB, plays better defense. I'd also prefer a trade for Paredes for similar reasons as well. 

[notin]

25 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I dont think looking for a walk is a good idea unless you are a defense first player hitting ninth.  Its not saying I think solo HRs are better than baserunners. Its because I think being passive is a bad idea, and you need to jump the pitcher when you get something where you are looking.

You take your walks. You dont hunt em. You dont celebrate em.

Hitters that walk a lot by merely taking pitches (and they’re out there) are not really the type of OBP hitters you want. Theyre just hoping for bad pitches and many of them see their strikeouts jump up as much or more than their walks.  As OBP became recognized as more important, lots of hitters adopted the “I’ll just take lots of pitches until they put me on base” mentality, and far too often they just walked back to the dugout.

But truly disciplined hitters that recognize a ball and don’t swing - those you do want.  But that kind of strike zone recognition is so difficult to attain if you have never had it…

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Arraez doesnt draw a ton of walks, but he hits a lot of doubles and tiples.  Hes aggressive in the box. Thats why hes good.  Im not against guys with high OBPs. Im against being passive at the plate.  Its not a recipe for confidence. A batter who isnt confident is already out.

Try approaching women without any confidence, see where that gets ya.  You know this, Im sure.

I want guys who approach the at-bat like us lady killers approach women. Hungry and confident.

'26 was his career high in doubles and triples. A lot of that had to do with playing in SF. He does not have enough power to reach the Monster at Fenway, but may get more hits in the expansive RF.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

To me, the most interesting part of that 32-5 stretch was who was playing at the time. We has Monasterio, IKF and Cheng at SS, IKF and Seigler at 2B and Narvaez catching. In some ways those line-ups look worse than our playoff ones.

All those guys got hot at once. I wouldn't count on that happening again if we had to do it all over again.

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

All those guys got hot at once. I wouldn't count on that happening again if we had to do it all over again.

I'm not counting on most of them as anything more than very nice depth.

We have a solid core and deep foundation despite a weakended farm.

We need to work on improving top quality, even if it comes at the expense of lessening the decent quantity aspect of the team.

We should not attempt to slightly improve several slots: we need to greatly improve 1-2 slots.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Like I said earlier you guys are so hung up on OPS like it’s the end all be all. Con Man had less HR, RBI, and TB than Flintstone, and Alonso by a pretty good margin, but had a higher Ops with help from his being hit 24 times. Break it down, and then you may have a point, but just talking about OPS doesn’t have much of a meaning IMO. Like I always say I like things that go up on the scoreboard in real time.

Alonso had 165 additional plate appearances to get those HR and RBI. Schwarber had 166 PAs. 

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

To me, the most interesting part of that 32-5 stretch was who was playing at the time. We has Monasterio, IKF and Cheng at SS, IKF and Seigler at 2B and Narvaez catching. In some ways those line-ups look worse than our playoff ones.

Amazingly, our leadoff hitter for most of those games was Seigler, but we also saw Eaton, Yoshida, Gasper and Jones. Our #2 batter was almost always Rafaela. Abreu 3rd and Contreras 4th was the norm, but look who batted 5th mostly: Duran, Durbin, Yoshida and even Romy. 6th was mostly Durbin with Monasterio and Romy getting some time.

Yes all the P&P players had a good time, and a good run.

[notin]

36 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Im swinging at every fastball that is in a place where I am looking. That could result in singles if it’s a sinker and I smash it through the infield.  And thats an end result win for OBP.  BUt thats not what Im looking for.  Im looking for my pitch and when I get it , to turn it into extra bases.  I want to see the back of their outfielders jerseys not the front.

More slugging is more fun to watch, but your views on walks and OBP might be, well, dead wrong.

Five of the top 6 teams in MLB in BB% made the pistseason.  Only one team (Atl) in the bottom 6 did.

Five of the top 6 teams in ISO also made the postseason.  But 3 in the bottom six did, and all 3 are still playing.

No magic formula…