A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[mvp 78]

58 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Sounds about right, but nobody was happy with Ceddanne's first full season on offense.

It's still a better offensive season than Duran '26. If 85 OPS+ is the ground floor for Arias, it's not the end of the world. That was Mayer in '25 and people were ok with it. Mayer in '26 was well under that. 

[mvp 78]

Also, when Ceddanne first came up, people were still comparing him to Mookie because he had a 1000 OPS in AAA in 50 G. He wasn't that guy. People had false hope. 

[drewski6]

18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The issue is the pay jumps more from .775 to .850 than from .700 to .775, and with tight wad ownership, we end up trying for exactly nine batters at .775. 

Maybe that's a winning formula with top 5 rotations, pens and defense to boot, but guys who are .775 batters rarely all stay there every year: you end up with 3-4 guys under .725 or even .700 on any given year. Last year, we saw way too many do just that.

The.850 guys seem to be more consistent, although I have zero evidence to back up that claim.

Good point on the $$ differential.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

It's still a better offensive season than Duran '26. If 85 OPS+ is the ground floor for Arias, it's not the end of the world. That was Mayer in '25 and people were ok with it. Mayer in '26 was well under that. 

85 OPS+ is not the end of the world, unless Roman gets hurt, Durbin and Cedanne stay around .700, Willson regresses from age to .800s from .900s, and we have another noodlebat season when entire months we cant hit like at all.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

85 OPS+ is not the end of the world, unless Roman gets hurt, Durbin and Cedanne stay around .700, Willson regresses from age to .800s from .900s, and we have another noodlebat season when entire months we cant hit like at all.

If all that happens, even a health Story at 104 OPS+ doesn't get the Sox to the playoffs. At that point, who really cares what Arias is hitting? At least he'd be getting MLB experience in a lost season. 

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Also, when Ceddanne first came up, people were still comparing him to Mookie because he had a 1000 OPS in AAA in 50 G. He wasn't that guy. People had false hope. 

Comparing him to Mookie, because of build, and versatility also. It was more than his bat.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Comparing him to Mookie, because of build, and versatility also. It was more than his bat.

Bzzzt... 

[drewski6]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If all that happens, even a health Story at 104 OPS+ doesn't get the Sox to the playoffs. At that point, who really cares what Arias is hitting? At least he'd be getting MLB experience in a lost season. 

If any of that happens, we would be in a bind because our lineup is not deep.  We have 7,8,9 hitters in Cedanne, Durbin, and now we want to add in ARias.  Okay.  But this means we are 1-2 injuries away, which are likely, from having a mostly noodlebat lineup, and we are literally writing the playbook to repeat the last 2 years

 

[drewski6]

If you think that the team is overrated this year and we are still kind of in a rebuild, then okay, build for the future.  But its like year 7, and Im even okay saying we are going to focus on integrating youth and waiting for some contracts to expire and really make our move in 2028.  If thats the plan , Im good with it. 

But when 2028-2029 comes we cant then be talking about not wanting to sign expensive players because then wed be stuck in 2032 and we need to think about 2032 in 2028.

If you are always thinking 4-5 years out, you are the pirates.  Eventually there needs to be a shift.  I dont need it to be this year.  But if its not this year, then the previous 7 years have failed.  Maybe it was strategy, maybe it was execution.  But its been a long rebuild already.  And if you are telling me we need to do it again, I can get behind that - but it cant be perpetually folding the present due to fear of hamstringing the future.  

Eventually, we got to move some chips in.  We are still trying to be too efficient as an organization.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

If you think that the team is overrated this year and we are still kind of in a rebuild, then okay, build for the future.  But its like year 7, and Im even okay saying we are going to focus on integrating youth and waiting for some contracts to expire and really make our move in 2028.  If thats the plan , Im good with it. 

But when 2028-2029 comes we cant then be talking about not wanting to sign expensive players because then wed be stuck in 2023 and we need to think about 2032 in 2028.

If you are always thinking 4-5 years out, you are the pirates.  Eventually there needs to be a shift.  I dont need it to be this year.  But if its not this year, then the previous 7 years have failed.  Maybe it was strategy, maybe it was execution.  But its been a long rebuild already.  And if you are telling me we need to do it again, I can get behind that - but it cant be perpetually folding the present due to fear of hamstringing the future.  

Eventually, we got to move some chips in.  We are still trying to be too efficient as an organization.

The plan for sometime now  has been to wait for the farm to produce a bumper crop, and then things were going to be AWESOME. Casas, RAF Man, Bello, Mayer, Teel, and Anthony were expected to be the so called core with Raffy still here. I don’t think the bumper crop produced like so many expected, and was counted on. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

It's still a better offensive season than Duran '26. If 85 OPS+ is the ground floor for Arias, it's not the end of the world. That was Mayer in '25 and people were ok with it. Mayer in '26 was well under that. 

Who was okay with Mayer's first year?

There's a difference between thinking give him more time and being okay with a pretty bad season. (Plus, he got worse on O.)

[moonslav59]

49 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

85 OPS+ is not the end of the world, unless Roman gets hurt, Durbin and Cedanne stay around .700, Willson regresses from age to .800s from .900s, and we have another noodlebat season when entire months we cant hit like at all.

It's the unknown regressions that hurt most teams that end up not contending.

Had just Story and Duran repeated 2025, which wasn't even close to their best season anyway, our offense would have jumped in the rankings. (Still not top 10, but not the cluster we see it as, now.)

We have to expect regressions in 2027 and plan for it, but it's nearly impossible to predict who it will be, and even if you can, how much of a regression matters on deciding on needing to replace or not.

Contreras might be expected to decline to .825 or .850, but I wouldn't trade him, even if I was 100% sure he would. What we do need to do is to constantly look to upgrade somewhere in hopes it makes up for unexpected regressions elsewhere.

One could argue the Mead and AR deals will have that effect on 2027, and it seems logical, butIMO, that is not going to be enough. We still lack an elite hitter, unless you think Contreras will repeat or improve on this year's production and with 75 more PAs. Even if he does, I still want another big bat. A LHB would be nice, but just get one.

[Old Red]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Who was okay with Mayer's first year?

There's a difference between thinking give him more time and being okay with a pretty bad season. (Plus, he got worse on O.)

Agree. 4-10-.228 with a .272 OBP were not good, and as you said he got worse from there.

[mvp 78]

43 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

If any of that happens, we would be in a bind because our lineup is not deep.  We have 7,8,9 hitters in Cedanne, Durbin, and now we want to add in ARias.  Okay.  But this means we are 1-2 injuries away, which are likely, from having a mostly noodlebat lineup, and we are literally writing the playbook to repeat the last 2 years

 

The offense was not a problem in '25. 

Runs - 7th in MLB

[UtahSox]

Here’s the crazy thing, and it’s always been one of my biggest fears with guys like Craig Breslow: they become so obsessed with proving they’re the smartest guy in the room that their ego gets in the way of making the obvious moves.

If you look back to the beginning of the 2026 offseason, we had the formula. We had the remedy for exactly what this team needed. But Breslow seemingly couldn’t bring himself to make the easy moves.

Ketel Marte was sitting there on a tee. Marcelo Mayer, Connelly Early, and maybe a down-the-line prospect could have potentially gotten that deal done. Re-sign Bregman, trade for Contreras, and put Ketel Marte at second base. Suddenly, you have an offense that looks exactly like what Breslow himself said this team needed. No offense to Erik Miller or Curtis Mead, but neither of those guys is nearly as valuable to this team as Ketel Marte would have been.

Fast-forward to this offseason, and now we have a logjam of players we’re paying and need to find at-bats for. So we’re either going to do nothing, or Breslow is going to pull some weird Ivy League, “I’m smarter than everybody else” bullsh**  instead of addressing the obvious holes.

Elly De La Cruz is EXACTLY what this team needs. An elite, dynamic talent who can completely change the complexion of this lineup. Are you going to steal him? Hell no…… but JH and Breslow need to do the right thing. But I can’t wait to see how Brezzo tries to outsmart everybody again, only for us to end up with this year’s version of Caleb Durbin playing shortstop.

At some point, being the smartest guy in the room needs to translate into actually building the best baseball team. Here is my prediction of what will happen: FO will say the price for him was insane “they don’t value our prospects the same way we do” and fans will all say “oh we did our best” then 6 months from now it’ll leak from Reds beat writers what Red Sox actually offered and UtahSox will be sick to his stomach…. how easily the Red Sox could have made it work. 
 

DLC is exactly what RS need.

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Who was okay with Mayer's first year?

There's a difference between thinking give him more time and being okay with a pretty bad season. (Plus, he got worse on O.)

Who was complaining about Mayer in 2025? I don't remember hearing anyone! 

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

If any of that happens, we would be in a bind because our lineup is not deep.  We have 7,8,9 hitters in Cedanne, Durbin, and now we want to add in ARias.  Okay.  But this means we are 1-2 injuries away, which are likely, from having a mostly noodlebat lineup, and we are literally writing the playbook to repeat the last 2 years

I don't disagree with your point about restricting or reducing how many "noddlebats" are in the everyday linbe-up, but guys like Durbin and Rafaela would be top 5 batters in the 7-8-9 slots. That's NOT our weakness.

Our weakness is in .750-.775 batters in too many 1-6 slots.

Our biggest weakness is having just one batter above Abreu's .773 line like this year.

I'm hopeful Mead can go over .800- maybe .850. I have some hopes Roman can/will. Maybe AR or Abreu can get at or over .800, but who is a lock at .850 with a decent shot at .900?

Crickets.

 

[notin]

20 hours ago, drewski6 said:

And MVP was very very very right, generally defense first players are cheaper.   Its because usually the d first players go to teams like the pirates. You know who is not stacking championships? The pirates! The atheltics!  The well we cant afford bats, so we'll get defense first guys.  Yeah, that makes sense, if you cant get OFFENSE FIRST GUYS.
 

I don’t see the Pirates as a team chasing defensive players at all.  Last year they added Brandon Lowe, Marcell Ozuna and Ryan O’Hearn, three players whose best position is DH. And they pushed defense whiz Ke’Bryan Hayes out the door in favor of offensive upgrade Nick Gonzalez.  When I think of teams chasing gloves, the first team  I think of is Tampa, who adds players like Ben Williamson, and Cedric Mullens to play alongside Taylor Walls, Chandler Simpson, etc.  

The Athletics?  They’re building the team you want.  C/1b Tyler Soderstrom in LF.  Adding Brent Rooker, Jeff MacNeil and Shea Langeliers. Extending Lawrence Butler.  These are not glove first players in any way.

Ignore defense and pitching suffers.  When pitching suffers, most teams lose. The biggest mistake I see out here is the repeated example of the two playoff games.  Two game sample, yes, it’s meaningless.  The Cubs and the Astros had two of the best offenses in MLB and didn’t do any better, and neither is blowing up their roster solely because of first round losses.

This doesn’t mean the Sox should ignore offense.  But it probably means hetting two elite bats is just as much the fantasy tjis year as it was last year.  First of all, the additions of Mead and Rutschman are already in place.  And assuming Duran gets moved, we likely know who 8 of the starters are already (barring additional trades, which are actually pretty likely).  Once the Sox decide where Mead fits in, they probably add either a 2b (Marte? Arraez? Lowe? Paredes? Semien? Abrams?) or a DH (Teoscar Hernandez? Arozarena? Suzuki?). DH kind of leaves the door open for numerous possibilities, although not so much on the FA market…

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's the unknown regressions that hurt most teams that end up not contending.

Had just Story and Duran repeated 2025, which wasn't even close to their best season anyway, our offense would have jumped in the rankings. (Still not top 10, but not the cluster we see it as, now.)

We have to expect regressions in 2027 and plan for it, but it's nearly impossible to predict who it will be, and even if you can, how much of a regression matters on deciding on needing to replace or not.

Contreras might be expected to decline to .825 or .850, but I wouldn't trade him, even if I was 100% sure he would. What we do need to do is to constantly look to upgrade somewhere in hopes it makes up for unexpected regressions elsewhere.

One could argue the Mead and AR deals will have that effect on 2027, and it seems logical, butIMO, that is not going to be enough. We still lack an elite hitter, unless you think Contreras will repeat or improve on this year's production and with 75 more PAs. Even if he does, I still want another big bat. A LHB would be nice, but just get one.

There are 30 teams in the league, 1/2 of which dont try to do anything but keep cost down.  12 teams make the playoffs.  "Had things broken right, we would have been better .... not top 10"

Top 10 is not good enough. Top 5 is not good enough.  IF we are not projected to be in the top 3 on offense, and we are not trying to actively get better , we are being complacent.  Now Im not saying we cant be complacent some years.  Sometiems after a window, you are okay working in some youngsters. Fine.

But if you want to fancy us a true competitive team, and Im fine if thats 40% of the seasons!  But when its time to compete, get serious.  And realize that an offense that is outside the top 5 is not serious.  

I understand you can still win.  But why be okay with top 10 after a long 7 year rebuild!  You want to go into the playoffs with one of the worst offenses among the teams that made it.

Eventually, we need to be hard on these guys.  Not every year. Not irrational with our expectations.

I expect them to have a top 5 offense in baseball 33% of the times.  I expect them to have a top 5 payroll in mlb 33% of the time.  Im fine with that.

What Im not fine with is always being so concerned about 5 years out and the future that we never focus on today.  If you told me lets focus on 2029 for the next years, but when 2029 comes, Im okay with taking some risks and moving some chips in....I would be fine.  What I dont want is to perpetually kick the can down the road.  To always be afraid that we might get into an underwater contract or give up a kid who turns out decently.

Customize your strategy to where you are in your team building cycle.

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The offense was not a problem in '25. 

Runs - 7th in MLB

7th is a problem.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The offense was not a problem in '25. 

Runs - 7th in MLB

Was there a bigger problem area?

What was the main reason we haven't advanced in the playoffs for 2 years?

[mvp 78]

Just now, drewski6 said:

7th is a problem.

A problem for opposing pitchers, yes. 

[mvp 78]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Was there a bigger problem area?

What was the main reason we haven't advanced in the playoffs for 2 years?

In '25, they were completely dragging at the end of the season due to injuries (Bregman, Anthony). Just look at the playoff lineups. Did injuries catch up with them in '26 as well? Hmmm, I don't remember. 

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

I don’t see the Pirates as a team chasing defensive players at all.  Last year they added Brandon Lowe, Marcell Ozuna and Ryan O’Hearn, three players whose best position is DH. And they pushed defense whiz Ke’Bryan Hayes out the door in favor of offensive upgrade Nick Gonzalez.  When I think of teams chasing gloves, the first team  I think of is Tampa, who adds players like Ben Williamson, and Cedric Mullens to play alongside Taylor Walls, Chandler Simpson, etc.  

The Athletics?  They’re building the team you want.  C/1b Tyler Soderstrom in LF.  Adding Brent Rooker, Jeff MacNeil and Shea Langeliers. Extending Lawrence Butler.  These are not glove first players in any way.

Ignore defense and pitching suffers.  When pitching suffers, most teams lose. The biggest mistake I see out here is the repeated example of the two playoff games.  Two game sample, yes, it’s meaningless.  The Cubs and the Astros had two of the best offenses in MLB and didn’t do any better, and neither is blowing up their roster solely because of first round losses.

This doesn’t mean the Sox should ignore offense.  But it probably means hetting two elite bats is just as much the fantasy tjis year as it was last year.  First of all, the additions of Mead and Rutschman are already in place.  And assuming Duran gets moved, we likely know who 8 of the starters are already (barring additional trades, which are actually pretty likely).  Once the Sox decide where Mead fits in, they probably add either a 2b (Marte? Arraez? Lowe? Paredes? Semien? Abrams?) or a DH (Teoscar Hernandez? Arozarena? Suzuki?). DH kind of leaves the door open for numerous possibilities, although not so much on the FA market…

I dont think its genuine to chalk it up to a meaningless 2 game sample.  In September we couldnt hit, at all. Going into that series, I knew we werent going to hit.  Joe Brady started up the now lets not put too much on 2 games BEFORE THE SERIES!  He was setting up his excuses for an expected loss before the loss even came.

That series could have been 20 games, and we would have averaged 1.3 runs per.  

If 8 spots are filled, and we want to be serious about getting further, then we need to clear some spots.

Because you cant expect everythign to break right so you need to have some excess.  And we dont.  25th in runs.

I do agree that AR and Mead add, and should be factored in.  I disagree that building a team is about filling 9 spots.  

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

In '25, they were completely dragging at the end of the season due to injuries (Bregman, Anthony). Just look at the playoff lineups. Did injuries catch up with them in '26 as well? Hmmm, I don't remember. 

Both in 25 and 26 the lineup wasnt deep enough to sustain a couple of injuries and/or drop offs.  If you want to fancy yourself primed and ready to compete for the whole shabang, your lineup has to be primed to overcome a couple injuries/drop-offs.

In both 25 and 26 we were not.  But 26 was prob worse.  And in 25 the injuries came later which is why we had better regular season rankings.  And in 25 , it did feel like we had a shot of winning, even though we had like Masa hitting 4th and Eaton hitting like 7th and Nate Lowe.  

But still, even 2025 wasnt enough to be a championship team.  Now thats okay because I dont think we were trying to have a championship team in 25.  You cant be a championship favorite every year and thats okay.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

I don’t see the Pirates as a team chasing defensive players at all.  Last year they added Brandon Lowe, Marcell Ozuna and Ryan O’Hearn, three players whose best position is DH. And they pushed defense whiz Ke’Bryan Hayes out the door in favor of offensive upgrade Nick Gonzalez.  When I think of teams chasing gloves, the first team  I think of is Tampa, who adds players like Ben Williamson, and Cedric Mullens to play alongside Taylor Walls, Chandler Simpson, etc.  

The Athletics?  They’re building the team you want.  C/1b Tyler Soderstrom in LF.  Adding Brent Rooker, Jeff MacNeil and Shea Langeliers. Extending Lawrence Butler.  These are not glove first players in any way.

Ignore defense and pitching suffers.  When pitching suffers, most teams lose. The biggest mistake I see out here is the repeated example of the two playoff games.  Two game sample, yes, it’s meaningless.  The Cubs and the Astros had two of the best offenses in MLB and didn’t do any better, and neither is blowing up their roster solely because of first round losses.

This doesn’t mean the Sox should ignore offense.  But it probably means hetting two elite bats is just as much the fantasy tjis year as it was last year.  First of all, the additions of Mead and Rutschman are already in place.  And assuming Duran gets moved, we likely know who 8 of the starters are already (barring additional trades, which are actually pretty likely).  Once the Sox decide where Mead fits in, they probably add either a 2b (Marte? Arraez? Lowe? Paredes? Semien? Abrams?) or a DH (Teoscar Hernandez? Arozarena? Suzuki?). DH kind of leaves the door open for numerous possibilities, although not so much on the FA market…

I totally agree, but it was more than 2 games in 2026 and 2 games in 2025: it was two Septembers, and lots of slumps over the last few seasons.

I realize singling out two selected, bad months is not the best way to judge a team's offense, either, especially with injuries involved, but I am more concerned about our 2027 offense  than...

Our defense.

Our rotation.

Our pen.

Our depth on the 26.

Our depth on the 40.

When I look at suggesting ways to improve the team, I'm not locked into focusing only on the weakest link(s) but I do think that's the simplest way to make major improvements.

Right now, I'd say SS offense, lack of power, lack of good LHBs and maybe 3B or LF/2B/DH offense (depending on who DHs.)

Not in any order.

Rotation and pen depth might be next.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

In '25, they were completely dragging at the end of the season due to injuries (Bregman, Anthony). Just look at the playoff lineups. Did injuries catch up with them in '26 as well? Hmmm, I don't remember. 

Did the Yanks drag w/o Judge?

[drewski6]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

A problem for opposing pitchers, yes. 

Is your trophy room filled with seventh place medals and trophies? Half the teams are just trying to turn a profit. Really, theres like 15 teams trying. Seventh yayyyyy.

 

[Behindenemylines]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's the unknown regressions that hurt most teams that end up not contending.

Had just Story and Duran repeated 2025, which wasn't even close to their best season anyway, our offense would have jumped in the rankings. (Still not top 10, but not the cluster we see it as, now.)

We have to expect regressions in 2027 and plan for it, but it's nearly impossible to predict who it will be, and even if you can, how much of a regression matters on deciding on needing to replace or not.

Contreras might be expected to decline to .825 or .850, but I wouldn't trade him, even if I was 100% sure he would. What we do need to do is to constantly look to upgrade somewhere in hopes it makes up for unexpected regressions elsewhere.

One could argue the Mead and AR deals will have that effect on 2027, and it seems logical, butIMO, that is not going to be enough. We still lack an elite hitter, unless you think Contreras will repeat or improve on this year's production and with 75 more PAs. Even if he does, I still want another big bat. A LHB would be nice, but just get one.

I agree, Sox still need a middle of the order bat with some thump! Anthony, Rutschman and Story (If he is still with Sox) need to stay healthy. Durbin, Rafaela, and Abreu need to produce a little more. Not sure what we have with  Mead, but if the power he showed in 2026 is legit it will play in Fenway. Remember Contreras had a career year and I don't think we should expect him to have similar numbers in 2027.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I totally agree, but it was more than 2 games in 2026 and 2 games in 2025: it was two Septembers, and lots of slumps over the last few seasons.

I realize singling out two selected, bad months is not the best way to judge a team's offense, either, especially with injuries involved, but I am more concerned about our 2027 offense  than...

Our defense.

Our rotation.

Our pen.

Our depth on the 26.

Our depth on the 40.

When I look at suggesting ways to improve the team, I'm not locked into focusing only on the weakest link(s) but I do think that's the simplest way to make major improvements.

Right now, I'd say SS offense, lack of power, lack of good LHBs and maybe 3B or LF/2B/DH offense (depending on who DHs.)

Not in any order.

Rotation and pen depth might be next.

Yeah, I like this post.  My only disagreement would be that I dont think SS offense is a thing.  I dont even really believe that a SS is a thing.  Mookie Betts, Monasterio, Varsho goes from Catcher to CF, Cedanne goes from 2b to CF.

I see most players as slashes.  Get 10 good hitters and put the big guys at the corners and the little guys up the middle. Generally, the smaller guys are better defensively, so you have a good defensive spine this way.

But to be honest, you kind of covered this because you acknowledged that you arent looking exclusively at SS for offense and thats all Im saying.  Dont marry guys to positions because its limiting.  Keep your options open.