A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[JoeBrady]

5 hours ago, Hitch said:

Who are you playing in RF then? Nobody we currently have on the roster would fill me with me confidence. 

Plus Bennett's replacement will cost serious $$$. We have next to no depth in pitching right now.

I don't think many of these proposals are particularly wholistic.  We might have an opportunity for an upgrade at SS, but we don't have a hole.  We can't make a trade to upgrade one position, while opening up holes at two other positions.  If the two choices are:

Arias + Abreu + Bennett, or

Elly + ??? + ???, then I'm betting on Arias ++.

The argument might be that we can always sign FAs, but we could do that with mortgaging our future.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Story was also one of the squeakiest wheels when Cora was fired. 

While Story was on the active roster: Red Sox 31-39 (including WC)

There’s no doubt the Red Sox would like to unload him somehow, for about anything, but I don’t see them looking for a replacement, or a starter in return.

[JoeBrady]

5 hours ago, oldtimer said:

Trade away veterans who have proven they can't get it done.

A couple of years back, I castigated the Cardinals FO for having too many decent offensive players to make use of.  Bloom got rid of a few of them, and I think they are better off for it.  We need to do the same.  I don't hate either Duran or Yoshi or Gasper, but the setup is clunky as heck.  Figure out our starting 9 position players, plus 4 flexible bench players, and move on.  Take the hit and rationalize the fit.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I don't think many of these proposals are particularly wholistic.  We might have an opportunity for an upgrade at SS, but we don't have a hole.  We can't make a trade to upgrade one position, while opening up holes at two other positions.  If the two choices are:

Arias + Abreu + Bennett, or

Elly + ??? + ???, then I'm betting on Arias ++.

The argument might be that we can always sign FAs, but we could do that with mortgaging our future.

Elly will only be 25, so to me he’s worth the risk, and gamble. Elly is proven, but Arias is still a suspect just like Mayer, and KC have proven to be who were supposed to be the next big thing at one point.

[notin]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Story was also one of the squeakiest wheels when Cora was fired. 

While Story was on the active roster: Red Sox 31-39 (including WC)

Those both might point to Story departing.  He’s not needed.

I think if anything he just gets DFAd.  But bad contract swap is option B…

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, notin said:

The Dodgers were the best team?  The Brewers did win an MLB-best 103 games.  That series started in Milwaukee for a reason.

The budget point is immaterial to the rest of the the post….

It feels like some fans are ignoring the fact that we can spend logically, AND still a lot.

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It feels like some fans are ignoring the fact that we can spend logically, AND still a lot.

Who’s ignoring we can spend logically, and still spend a lot. That’s pretty much common sense. Bloom thought spending on Masa, and Story was logical, but now their contracts, and the players need to be unloaded. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It feels like some fans are ignoring the fact that we can spend logically, AND still a lot.

It's hard to ignore not spending on fan favorites and proven stars, and instead recruit players who were only really good on previous teams.

Typical Red Sox fans don't dissect the budget and luxury taxes -- they just see a homegrown Hall of Famer go win 3 more rings in another city, and their top home run hitter for the past decade get signed, only to get dumped and then resume slugging elsewhere.

And in the meantime, the guys who were supposed to be the next big thing in Boston either flop or go on the IL. Over and over, all decade. 

Most of us here are longtime Sox fans lucky enough to see young position players burst into stardom all the time last century: in the 90s and 80s and 70s, even the 60s.

Now it's just our turn to suffer through more misfortune and mismanagement.

[notin]

27 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It feels like some fans are ignoring the fact that we can spend logically, AND still a lot.

And that there is a massive gray area between Tampa and the Dodgers,  and the Sox are in it…

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

It's hard to ignore not spending on fan favorites and proven stars, and instead recruit players who were only really good on previous teams.

Typical Red Sox fans don't dissect the budget and luxury taxes -- they just see a homegrown Hall of Famer go win 3 more rings in another city, and their top home run hitter for the past decade get signed, only to get dumped and then resume slugging elsewhere.

And in the meantime, the guys who were supposed to be the next big thing in Boston either flop or go on the IL. Over and over, all decade. 

Most of us here are longtime Sox fans lucky enough to see young position players burst into stardom all the time last century: in the 90s and 80s and 70s, even the 60s.

Now it's just our turn to suffer through more misfortune and mismanagement.

Good post. You’re 100% on the typical Red Sox fan too. Tony C at 19 was one of those young position players to burst onto the scene only to see his career change by an errant fastball.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Good post. You’re 100% on the typical Red Sox fan too. Tony C at 19 was one of those young position players to burst onto the scene only to see his career change by an errant fastball.

Joshua Baez, the kid who hit 3 straight home runs in his first MLB game for St. Louis this summer and led the minors in HRs, was the 54th overall pick in the 2021 draft. 

To me it defies belief that the Red Sox weren't in on this guy. This isn't some Yankee fan from a suburb -- Baez is from Dorchester in Boston and was so good he transferred to a private school in Brookline for his junior and senior years, when he was named Gatorade Massachusetts Player of the Year.

Ok, the '21 draft was where the Sox had their highest pick this century and took Marcelo Mayer #4 overall. It happens. But their #2 with the 40th pick was Jud Fabian, who didn't even sign and went back to college. 

So not only did the incompetent front office miss the best high school baseball player right in their own front yard (Fenway is next to Brookline Ave), but they wasted the pick on a guy they couldn't even sign.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

There’s no doubt the Red Sox would like to unload him somehow, for about anything, but I don’t see them looking for a replacement, or a starter in return.

Always the boring possibility that they deal him somewhere along with $15-18mill for an A-ball reliever in his mid-20s and a 93mph fastball...

[notin]

27 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Joshua Baez, the kid who hit 3 straight home runs in his first MLB game for St. Louis this summer and led the minors in HRs, was the 54th overall pick in the 2021 draft. 

To me it defies belief that the Red Sox weren't in on this guy. This isn't some Yankee fan from a suburb -- Baez is from Dorchester in Boston and was so good he transferred to a private school in Brookline for his junior and senior years, when he was named Gatorade Massachusetts Player of the Year.

Ok, the '21 draft was where the Sox had their highest pick this century and took Marcelo Mayer #4 overall. It happens. But their #2 with the 40th pick was Jud Fabian, who didn't even sign and went back to college. 

So not only did the incompetent front office miss the best high school baseball player right in their own front yard (Fenway is next to Brookline Ave), but they wasted the pick on a guy they couldn't even sign.

Be fair.  Fabian was talked about as an early to mid-first rounder who fell due to some injury issues.  I get taking that chance.

Yes, they passed on the Gatorade Massachusetts Player of the Year, but let's not pretend that is automatically some harbinger of a bright MLB future.  Someone wins that award every year and I bet most of us have never heard of between 99% and 99.9999% of them...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Be fair.  Fabian was talked about as an early to mid-first rounder who fell due to some injury issues.  I get taking that chance.

Yes, they passed on the Gatorade Massachusetts Player of the Year, but let's not pretend that is automatically some harbinger of a bright MLB future.  Someone wins that award every year and I bet most of us have never heard of between 99% and 99.9999% of them...

I played with a few and actually had something in common. I once drank a Gatorade in the same state.

All draft picks are rolls of the dice. And that truth right there is why smart orgs with the good sense to acknowledge they're in the entertainment business should pay special attention to highly-rated prospects who have thrived in their regions. 

Fans don't realize how great Tony Conigliaro was, starting in the majors full-time at age 19, and leading the American League in home runs when he was 20 years old. Those were the days when Mantle and Killebrew slugged. OMG, how could the Sox bring up a kid so young. 

What a coup for the PR department, when fans could go watch a local boy and spend money for tickets on crappy Red Sox teams in the pre-Impossible Dream years.

[notin]

20 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I played with a few and actually had something in common. I once drank a Gatorade in the same state.

All draft picks are rolls of the dice. And that truth right there is why smart orgs with the good sense to acknowledge they're in the entertainment business should pay special attention to highly-rated prospects who have thrived in their regions. 

Fans don't realize how great Tony Conigliaro was, starting in the majors full-time at age 19, and leading the American League in home runs when he was 20 years old. Those were the days when Mantle and Killebrew slugged. OMG, how could the Sox bring up a kid so young. 

What a coup for the PR department, when fans could go watch a local boy and spend money for tickets on crappy Red Sox teams in the pre-Impossible Dream years.

But nowadays everybody knows about everybody.  The Sox no doubt heard of Báez, but so did all the other MLB teams.  The whole advantage that he’s local is gone now…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

But nowadays everybody knows about everybody.  The Sox no doubt heard of Báez, but so did all the other MLB teams.  The whole advantage that he’s local is gone now…

Right, but all things being about equal as far as formulas and evals for "best player available," here's where if I were an owner I'd at least advise the front office to pay special attention to recommendations of scouts in our own region.

It's just good business in the entertainment business. 

But don't draft a guy that you don't have at least a verbal commitment for signing from either a parent or agent. 

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Always the boring possibility that they deal him somewhere along with $15-18mill for an A-ball reliever in his mid-20s and a 93mph fastball...

I think at this point lots of Red Sox fans would take that.

[Old Red]

43 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I played with a few and actually had something in common. I once drank a Gatorade in the same state.

All draft picks are rolls of the dice. And that truth right there is why smart orgs with the good sense to acknowledge they're in the entertainment business should pay special attention to highly-rated prospects who have thrived in their regions. 

Fans don't realize how great Tony Conigliaro was, starting in the majors full-time at age 19, and leading the American League in home runs when he was 20 years old. Those were the days when Mantle and Killebrew slugged. OMG, how could the Sox bring up a kid so young. 

What a coup for the PR department, when fans could go watch a local boy and spend money for tickets on crappy Red Sox teams in the pre-Impossible Dream years.

Tony C was almost my favorite player. Just behind Yaz.

[notin]

6 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Right, but all things being about equal as far as formulas and evals for "best player available," here's where if I were an owner I'd at least advise the front office to pay special attention to recommendations of scouts in our own region.

It's just good business in the entertainment business. 

But don't draft a guy that you don't have at least a verbal commitment for signing from either a parent or agent. 

Then in the case of a player like Fabian that you were never expecting to be available when your pick came up, you should pass on him?

[notin]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I think at this point lots of Red Sox fans would take that.

Why? We probably have 10-15 players that fit that description already.  That trade does nothing to make the Sox better…

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I don't like moving GGs, but Paredes might be available with just one year of control left.  Or as I mentioned elsewhere, now is the opportune time to go after Ketel.  He was beloved last year.  He is one year older, but should be a heck of a lot cheaper.

Between him and Contreras and a rookie manager, I think they would just play when they want, and take a lot of at-bats off.  They would be the missing, but later turns up at the casino, twins.

This is where we miss Cora in my opinion.

Im not against it, kicking the tires on Marte, but its a little scary when you start stacking the headcases.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Joshua Baez, the kid who hit 3 straight home runs in his first MLB game for St. Louis

Baez has a career 0.1 bWAR.  And I don't normally pick prospects based on their neighborhood.

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

Who’s ignoring we can spend logically, and still spend a lot. That’s pretty much common sense. Bloom thought spending on Masa, and Story was logical, but now their contracts, and the players need to be unloaded. 

Not really, theres like 1 or 2 years left on each.  Just bite the bullet and dont let them stop you from doing anyting.  We dont have to model our winter plan around trying to salvage value from underwater contracts and therefore pass on needed help (again).

[JoeBrady]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Im not against it, kicking the tires on Marte, but its a little scary when you start stacking the headcases.

Absolutely no doubt he is a risk.  Well ignore the fact that some in here wanted to trade Tolle and Early for him.  But now he is available for close to nothing.  The downside risk is already priced into his cost.

[notin]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Not really, theres like 1 or 2 years left on each.  Just bite the bullet and dont let them stop you from doing anyting.  We dont have to model our winter plan around trying to salvage value from underwater contracts and therefore pass on needed help (again).

Right.

If you think every bad contract “needs to be unloaded” as it nears expiration, then you have no business playing in that type of free agency at all…

[drewski6]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

Absolutely no doubt he is a risk.  Well ignore the fact that some in here wanted to trade Tolle and Early for him.  But now he is available for close to nothing.  The downside risk is already priced into his cost.

If they can get through to Contreras, and they may have - then maybe we can help Marte keep his head on straight.  Im just worried about them dragging each other down mentally.

[notin]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

If they can get through to Contreras, and they may have - then maybe we can help Marte keep his head on straight.  Im just worried about them dragging each other down mentally.

Contreras has anger issues and Marte gets sad and flaky.

That could go very wrong very fast…

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Why? We probably have 10-15 players that fit that description already.  That trade does nothing to make the Sox better…

Huh? I’ve heard for the last two years that the Red Sox have to  get rid of Story, and his contract, so you’d have to  ask them. Some didn’t want him even coming back at the end of this past year. Plus some already have Arias penciled in at SS, and Meade at 2B, so I don’t know what you’d want for Story that would change that outside of Semien, which is a non starter to begin with.🙈Wow!🤭

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Contreras has anger issues and Marte gets sad and flaky.

That could go very wrong very fast…

Well if thats the deal with Marte, we should keep Story around.  Hes the designated wellness checker.

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Absolutely no doubt he is a risk.  Well ignore the fact that some in here wanted to trade Tolle and Early for him.  But now he is available for close to nothing.  The downside risk is already priced into his cost.

Absolutely no doubt he’s a risk?🤭. Nobody said to trade both Tolle, and Early for him, and the Report out said the Red Sox offered Tolle, or Early, but NOT both. WOW,