A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Duran’s weak arm has been well documented, and I’m not disputing that, but that doesn’t change anything on little A. I just don’t need graphs, and stats I guess to tell me how good someone is, or going like you guys are all hooked on it seems. When your watching a game to you have to look up something to tell you what you are watching, and how good someone is. That’s fine if you do for you, but I’m just not that needy, or interested  for that matter.

I don't need to look up stats to tell me if someone is playing well. The stats can just backup my argument that he's not the horrible defender you make him out to be. 

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't need to look up stats to tell me if someone is playing well. The stats can just backup my argument that he's not the horrible defender you make him out to be. 

I didn’t say horrible, but I just don’t think he’s as good as you do, and I’ll leave it at that.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I didn’t say horrible, but I just don’t think he’s as good as you do, and I’ll leave it at that.

How good do you think I think he is? 

[notin]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

I’m sure you have some kind of stat you’re leaning on, but the good old eye test was really impressed with his little League arm last year. What impressed you the most?🤔

The scouts who watched him in the minors and aren’t bsing everything on his one throw vs the Brewers?

On soxprospects they wrote “Strong defensive instincts make up for only average foot speed. Takes efficient routes when moving laterally, but on occasion will be a step slow reading balls over his head. Has primarily played center field, but started playing corner outfield more often in July 2024. Profiles best in the corner outfield long-term, but could play center at least at the beginning of his major league career if needed. Potential above-average defensive profile in the corner and average in center field.”

What are you basing it on?

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, notin said:

The scouts who watched him in the minors and aren’t bsing everything on his one throw vs the Brewers?

On soxprospects they wrote “Strong defensive instincts make up for only average foot speed. Takes efficient routes when moving laterally, but on occasion will be a step slow reading balls over his head. Has primarily played center field, but started playing corner outfield more often in July 2024. Profiles best in the corner outfield long-term, but could play center at least at the beginning of his major league career if needed. Potential above-average defensive profile in the corner and average in center field.”

What are you basing it on?

He also messed up that first ball hit to him in his debut. Remember?!?!?!

[notin]

32 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He also messed up that first ball hit to him in his debut. Remember?!?!?!

And that throw against the Reds in the opening series was kind of mediocre and a few feet off the plate…

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

And that throw against the Reds in the opening series was kind of mediocre and a few feet off the plate…

The more we talk about it, the more I'm changing my mind... 😵‍💫

[moonslav59]

15 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I have no problem with a Arias-ELDC construct.  I just had a problem with moving Durbin, starting Story, and thinking it was an improvement.  The comment I responded to was an overpayment of about 100%.

I would never bench Durbin so Story could start. I guess one of my options (not a suggestion) was we could trade Arias, but I think all of those were for a returning SS.

[JoeBrady]

6 hours ago, Old Red said:

You’re going off on such a simple thing. Atlanta paid Sale $500,000 in 2024 to win a CY. Those are the facts. What they have to do beyond  2024 wasn’t a point, but you took it there. Keep going, but it doesn Change 2024.

He cost them $10M.  It doesn't matter what date the check was cut.

[JoeBrady]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Mead's 850 OPS is 100 points higher than the combined '26 DH OPS for the Sox. 

Which is why he will be our 2B.  I mean, if we sign Sato to be our DH/backup 1B/2B/3B/LF, I won't hate it.  But I am not sure it will be the upgrade people think it will be.

[NHNative]

Who are our weakest bats that have a D that wouldn't be missed?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

He cost them $10M.  It doesn't matter what date the check was cut.

And ATL paid the full boat in 2025, so who cares about how much ATL actually paid him for one season? Oh, one guy does.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Which is why he will be our 2B.  I mean, if we sign Sato to be our DH/backup 1B/2B/3B/LF, I won't hate it.  But I am not sure it will be the upgrade people think it will be.

Sato's numbers are off the charts, but of course, how well it translates to MLB is the big "if." Murakami and Okamoto kinda upped the trust level via the recency effect, but how reliable is that?

His defense has been called a "mixed bag," so I do worry, if he'll be the next Yoshida- doomed to DH, but with a better bat.

I'd be fine with Contreras 1B, Mead 2B, Arias SS and Durbin 3B with Sato at DH and Anthony in LF, but the cost of Story and Yoshida on the bench seems to be the fly in the ointment. Story as the back-up SS, 2B and maybe even 3Bman would be nice, but he's balk or pout, and we have some decent infield depth, anyway. (I like Sogard as the top utility guy.)

I'm not sure outbidding everyone for Sato and then DH'ing him is the best bang for the buck, but we need a big bat, and he might be the best out there, without costing any players- just money.

I suppose we could trade Durbin or Mead (Durbin to 2B) but then we hurt the D or lose Mead, who might be our 2027 projected best batter, as of now. Sato could play LF, but is he better than Anthony on D? (Maybe it could help keep Roman healthier by making him the FT DH, but who knows?)

I've been talked out of BLowe as a good fit.

I'm not sure Suzuki is the answer- just because he's the best MLB FA batter this winter.

Right now, I like Sato, but maybe someone talks me down for that opinion.

Sato's XBH total from 2025-2026 is stunningly high.

[NHNative]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd be fine with Contreras 1B, Mead 2B, Arias SS and Durbin 3B with Sato at DH and Anthony in LF, but the cost of Story and Yoshida on the bench seems to be the fly in the ointment. Story as the back-up SS, 2B and maybe even 3Bman would be nice, but he's balk or pout, and we have some decent infield depth, anyway. (I like Sogard as the top utility guy.)

I like this a lot, but when you mention bouncing Durbin, I break out in a rash.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

 I am not sure [Sato] will be the upgrade people think it will be.

He's like take PAs away from our DH (106 OPS+), 3B (100) and LF (83) positions.

Hopefully, Mead upgrades 2B (93,) and Rutschman upgrades C (82)

I have made this point nearly every year, and it never seems to amount to much, but here I go again: if we can replace these bad numbers by adding a big bat (Sato or Suzuki) plus more PAs from Mead, Rutschman and Anthony, we could see massive gains on offense- assuming no unexpected major set-backs:

OPS+ 2026 Player (PAs in 2026)> Replaced by....

Catcher: 52 Narvaez (197) & 86 Wong (238)> Rutschman

LF: 61 Eaton (60,) 76 Duran (608,) 91 White (60)> Anthony/Suzuki/Sato

2B: 60 Mayer (228) 81 IKF (183) 88 Monasterio (347)> Mead/Durbin/Sato

3B: 100 Durbin (586 to 2B?)> Sato?

DH: 62 Romy (73) 108 Anthony 242,) 111 Yoshida (297)> Sato/Mead

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, NHNative said:

Who are our weakest bats that have a D that wouldn't be missed?

2026 OPS+ of our best defensive players:

117 Abreu RF GG

113 Rafaela CF GG

108 Rutschman C (2 teams)

101 Durbin 3B near GG

73 Cheng SS (out of options & likely a goner)

Okay on D:

153 Contreras 1B

We should not have to sacrifice defense to upgrade the offense, but certainly we could choose one of these guys to try and upgrade on offense. One could argue Rafaela may not ever repeat 113 and Durbin may never get much higher than 101. I think Abreu & Rutschman and probably Rafaela & Durbin are super duper long shots at being replaced. I don't see 1B being touched, especially since Mead can play 1B.

That leaves SS, 2B, LF and DH, but Mead was an attempt to upgrade offense, and he can cover 2B or DH and back up 1B. Anthony can cover LF or DH, and we have Arias at SS.

This gives Brez 4 positions to look at, while having the ability to shuffle guys around to more cover other slots left untouched.

If we sign Sato, he need not be the 3Bman.

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, NHNative said:

I like this a lot, but when you mention bouncing Durbin, I break out in a rash.

I really like Durbin at 3B, but Mead is no plus on D at 2B, and if adding Sato gives us the big bat we need and 3B is best for him, I wouldn't be against upgrading 2B defense with Durbin with an equal downgrade at 3B with Sato v Durbin.

There are other ways to use Sato (DH, LF or maybe 2B, if he's better than mead there.) Maybe this is best: Dump Duran, Story & Yoshida....

C Rutschman & Gasper (Jo Garcia)

1B Contreras, Sogard (Brannon)

2B Sato/Mead, Seigler (Rodgers)

3B Durbin/Sato (Romero/Winnay)

SS Arias, Monasterio (McDonough/Godbout)

LF Anthony, White or Jones (J Gonzales)

CF Rafaela (Ward)

RF Abreu (Campbell)

DH Mead/Sato, Romy (Cespedes)

[moonslav59]

Sonny Gray wants to pitch in 2027...

“I still want to win a World Series, whether that is [with] Boston or with whoever wants me.”