A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[jdc69]

5 hours ago, Old Red said:

Justified just like Devers.

Feeling so justified in the early exit. If I feel anymore justified, I may puke. 

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, Behindenemylines said:

We need a right handed 20+ HR bat at minimum. Two would be better! Maybe one a FA signing and the other via trade. You can not play in Fenway and be at the bottom of the league hitting homers.

We need a LHB more, but another RHB yes!

[moonslav59]

How about signing Teruaki Sato?

He'll be 28 by opening day and had 79 HRs and 81 2B+3B in the past two seasons combined. 

He's a LHB. He can play 3B of LF. (We could move Durbin to 2B and Mead to DH, or we could move Anthony to DH and trade Duran.)

No way we sign Sato & Suzuki, but that might even make Fred happy.

1. L Anthony DH

2. R Suzuki LF

3. L Sato 3B

4. R Contreras 1B

5. L Abreu RF

6. R Mead 2B

7. S Rutschman C

8. R Rafaela CF

9. R Arias SS

Bench: Durbin, Sogard, Wong and Jones or White

 

[notin]

5 hours ago, Old Red said:

That’s 37-98. I think San Fran would like to get out from underneath that contract, and I’m pretty sure the Yankees would love to have Raffy Yo think Raffy could’ve, and would’ve helped the Red Sox against the Yankees the last two postseasons especially in Yankee Stadium?🤔

The Giants might not hate that contract because 1) the man can hit and 2) they seem to struggle convincing free agents to come there despite SF being a terrific city whose only drawback is it’s insanely expensive to live there for non-major leaguers…

[JimEd]

6 hours ago, notin said:

They also bailed on Munetaka Murakami and it certainly wasn’t for financial reasons…

yeah, but they were "interested". 

[JoeBrady]

On 10/5/2026 at 11:55 AM, Old Red said:

The past doesn’t necessarily predict the future just  like hope, and hype doesn’t guarantee success. Yes paying Atlanta $17M to take Sale off their hands was not a $17M well spent.

Not sure if I am re-posting, but how much would a prospect like Grissom cost if you were allowed to purchase him

[JoeBrady]

On 10/5/2026 at 12:48 PM, moonslav59 said:

It would be like trading Story and then he hits .310 with 40 Hrs.

It would exactly like that.  Fans would go from 'he stinks and is untradeable' to "I can't believe we traded him'.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/5/2026 at 1:24 PM, NHNative said:

Its nutz... projected Red Sox payroll for 27 is half what it was for 26.

Gets some power dudes!

None of the FAs are true power hitters.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

None of the FAs are true power hitters.

Sato has 79 HRs and 160+ HBHs in the past 2 seasons in Japan.

BLowe has 66 HRs in 2 years, but just 115 XBHs.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/5/2026 at 1:28 PM, mvp 78 said:

Elly SS, Story 2B, Mead 3B

All the good ELDC does will be offset by Story.

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Not sure if I am re-posting, but how much would a prospect like Grissom cost if you were allowed to purchase him

Hard to know, and the hindsight bias makes it even harder.

He was a pretty highly regarded prospect with defensive issues at SS, was called up and had a decent first 150 PAs in MLB. His second season was not so promising (80 PAs.)

I think the trade was more about ridding themselves of a pitcher they could not rely on, while saving some money. They and I thought Grissom had a decent chance at winning the 2B job and maybe sticking close to his .746 OPS with the Braves. Again, "maybe" he could even be okay on defense if playing just 2B.

We had sucked at 2B for a while. We had gotten next to nothing from a $26M pitcher for years. I see how pissed posters get over $21M for Buehler, $19M for Sandoval and $10M each for Kluber and Richards, because of us ignoring their injuries and injury histories.

Sure, none except Kluber were ex-Cy Young pitcher, and I get the apples to oranges aspect of my point, but the fact was and still is, Sale was fully unreliable at the time we traded him.

Sure, we shouldn't have had to pay $17M, too, but the deal made some sense at the time. That doesn't change the results, and the results were the trade sucked, but I still think there was logic to it.

 

[JoeBrady]

On 10/5/2026 at 7:58 PM, Donnie Sadler was short said:

If you read any of Mookies comments either recently or years ago about Boston its pretty clear he didnt like it here....the mistake was not getting  more back but wake up people..He didnt want to be here!

Folks don't like that narrative, but I agree.  He was likely leaving.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/5/2026 at 8:47 PM, moonslav59 said:

Bench: Durbin, Sogard, Wong, Gasper

We're not signing either Suzuki or Lowe just to put Durbin on the bench.

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

All the good ELDC does will be offset by Story.

How about Durbin 3B, ELCD SS and Mead 2B?

[JoeBrady]

On 10/6/2026 at 1:58 PM, notin said:

Shortly before the trade, there were many upset to find out the Sox had an offer for Sale’s entire contract with the Sox hetting essentially nothing, and there were folks upset that deal got turned down.

The funny part is that fans were upset that he wasn't traded earlier AND he was traded later.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

We're not signing either Suzuki or Lowe just to put Durbin on the bench.

Sato would move Durbin to the bench (or 2B) not those two.

We could sign both and Durbin could play 3B, but then we'd maybe trade Anthony or Mead to clear up the DH slot for just one of them.

Yes, Sato at 3B, Mead at 2B would force Durbin to the bench, but with or without Suzuki.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

The funny part is that fans were upset that he wasn't traded earlier AND he was traded later.

Yes, the best argument was the one where someone said we had a chance to trade Sale and his full salary earlier and chose not to. On that I can agree to a mistake made, if true.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

We're not signing either Suzuki or Lowe just to put Durbin on the bench.

I doubt we sign one from Sato, Suzuki or Lowe.

Signing two does not belong on the realistic thread.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/7/2026 at 7:33 PM, moonslav59 said:

DEC 9: Grissom for Isaiah Campbell

Jackson, not Campbell.

[JoeBrady]

23 hours ago, notin said:

than watch Harper decline for 5 years

Our age tolerance is rising instead of decreasing, almost like being old is an attribute.

[JoeBrady]

12 hours ago, notin said:

Home runs are nice, and I wouldn’t turn down a home run hitter.  But offense comes from getting on base.

I agree.  Just for fun, this is the top 10 teams runs scored by category:

• OPS 778
• OBP 777
• HRs 755

A good hitter is a good hitter no matter their particular skill, but HRs don't help as much as OBP.

[JoeBrady]

9 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

3rd, 6th, 7th, 14th, 18th

Not a perfect indicator for runs. I think SLG is a bit better.

SLG is very similar to OPS and OBP, and better than just HRs.

[JoeBrady]

11 hours ago, notin said:

where we don’t look at the guy who scored as the offensive talent.

I don't consider it a real discussion.  Who needs Shell, Upshaw or Otto, since they don't score TDs.  Who needs a point guard?  Or Bobby Orr?

[JoeBrady]

11 hours ago, notin said:

where we don’t look at the guy who scored as the offensive talent.

I don't consider it a real discussion.  Who needs Shell, Upshaw or Otto, since they don't score TDs.  Who needs a point guard?  Or Bobby Orr?

[notin]

42 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Jackson, not Campbell.

The Fungible Isaiah’s 

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Jackson, not Campbell.

LOL, correct!

[moonslav59]

These players are currently on the 40:

(47 counting 7 on 60 Day IL)

To be FAs: IKF, Sandoval & Gray

Olds & Burgos

Rivera & Gamboa

Kelly & Moran (both out of options)

Cheng, Eaton, Jones & White (all out of options)

 

Arb or non-tender? 

Casas & Duran

 

Salary issues:

Yoshida & Story

[moonslav59]

MLBTR ARB Estimates:

$11.1 Duran (I'd say no- trade, non tender?)

$9.1 Rutschman (lock)

$4.6 Abreu (lock- maybe extend)

$2.8 Crawford (lock)

$2.0 Wong (could be traded or non tendered)

$1.8 Romy (I'd bring him back.)

$1.8 Oviedo (near lock, unless health issue)

$1.7 Casas (I'd roll the dice.)

$1.6 Monasterio (not so sure)

$1.5 Miller (lock)

$1.4 White (out of options may force a trade)

$1.2 Weissert (lock)

$1.2 Slaten (likely)

$1.1M Guerrero (We always need a Guerrero on the team.)

$900 Jones (out of options)

$800K Kelly (at that price, maybe try another year)

That's about $44M. (Not added from their 2026 cost, but some is.)

[JoeBrady]

8 hours ago, Old Red said:

All it cost Atlanta that year in actually cash value was $500,000 for Sale to win a CY for them.🤭

Show your work please.  As far as I can see, Sale was due $27.5M in 2024.  The RS paid Atlanta $17M.  The RS saved $10.5 plus they got Grissom.  It didn't work out, but those are the details.

[JoeBrady]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Fangraphs has them at 12th and that include 6 HR in 100 PA from Gasper, which he is unlikely to repeat.

LF - 26th

3B - 16th

SS - 22nd

2B - 23rd

C - 25th

That's mostly my point.

LF - 26th >>>Anthony

3B - 16th

SS - 22nd >>> Arias

2B - 23rd >>> Mead

C - 25th >>> Rutschman

We have improved every weakness.