Red Sox Roundup, Sept 28: Abreu's Impact, Free Agent Moves, Playoff Strategy

[Talk Sox]

Here is some of the latest Red Sox analysis and history from around the internet. The focus is on the team's left-handed pitching staff, key playoff matchups against the Yankees, Payton Tolle's role in the Wild Card Series, the 2026 playoff run, potential free agent targets, and Wilyer Abreu's impact on the playoff race.

• The most left-handed pitching staff in nearly 40 years is set for the playoffs (MLB.com). Argues the Red Sox have the most left-handed pitchers in nearly 40 years, with 832 1/3 innings from lefties, surpassing 2025 league averages. Key evidence includes their 60% lefty usage, top-tier lefty starters, and potential playoff advantages against teams weak against southpaws.
• Top 5 Red Sox Playoff Performances vs. Yankees: Pedro Martinez Outduels Roger Clemens (NESN). Revisits Pedro Martinez's 1999 ALCS Game 3 dominance over the Yankees, where he struck out 12 and allowed just two hits, outdueling Roger Clemens and limiting key Yankees hitters. The performance remains a top Red Sox playoff matchup against New York.
• Payton Tolle will be a main character in this Red Sox-Yankees series. And what a character he is. (Boston Globe $$$). Argues Payton Tolle will be a key player in the Red Sox-Yankees Wild Card Series, citing his 3.03 ERA, 171 strikeouts, and strong performance against the Yankees. Highlights his unique personality, including his wedding, humor, and tribute to his late mother.
• MLB notes: Looking back on wild, unprecedented Red Sox season (Boston Herald $$$). Revisits the 2026 Red Sox's improbable playoff run, detailing their rocky start, coaching changes, injuries, and late-season resurgence, including a 15-game win streak and key trades, culminating in a historic postseason berth.
• Mariners reporter links Red Sox to dream free agent who would require a trade for fit (BoSox Injection). Argues the Red Sox could target Randy Arozarena as a free agent if they trade their overcrowded outfield, citing his 2026 stats (.279/.380/.479, 26 HR, 5.3 fWAR) and potential to balance the lineup, but hurdles include trading Yoshida and dealing with a logjam they've delayed addressing.
• Ringing endorsement from Salvador Perez highlights Wilyer Abreu’s importance to Red Sox playoff race (BoSox Injection). Argues Wilyer Abreu is a key X-factor for the Red Sox playoff push, citing his recent .257/.353/.491 batting line with eight homers since August and 25 defensive runs saved, positioning him for a potential six WAR season.

[moonslav59]

55 minutes ago, Talk Sox said:

 

• Mariners reporter links Red Sox to dream free agent who would require a trade for fit (BoSox Injection). Argues the Red Sox could target Randy Arozarena as a free agent if they trade their overcrowded outfield, citing his 2026 stats (.279/.380/.479, 26 HR, 5.3 fWAR) and potential to balance the lineup, but hurdles include trading Yoshida and dealing with a logjam they've delayed addressing.

Trading Duran still leaves us with Anthony-Rafaela-Abreu in the OF and Yoshida/White/Jones/Campbell as depth.

We also have Story or Mead at DH, along with Gasper, Romy and others.

We'd need at least 2 trades to make room for Aroz.

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Trading Duran still leaves us with Anthony-Rafaela-Abreu in the OF and Yoshida/White/Jones/Campbell as depth.

We also have Story or Mead at DH, along with Gasper, Romy and others.

We'd need at least 2 trades to make room for Aroz.

I don't think anything is a given with guys like Jones, Campbell, Gasper and Romy. Mead has only had one good half season. Story and Masa are gone after '27. White is fine for a 5th OFer. None of those guys should really be getting in the way of acquiring an upgrade. That said, I'd be more interested in Suzuki because of his pull %, chase rate and defense. 

[JoeBrady]

50 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Trading Duran still leaves us with Anthony-Rafaela-Abreu in the OF and Yoshida/White/Jones/Campbell as depth.

We also have Story or Mead at DH, along with Gasper, Romy and others.

We'd need at least 2 trades to make room for Aroz.

Aroz wouldn't make sense for us with our configuration.  Re-signing Gray or adding Skubal should be our priority.

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Aroz wouldn't make sense for us with our configuration.  Re-signing Gray or adding Skubal should be our priority.

Good thing that Breslow has shown he can do more than one move in an offseason. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

That said, I'd be more interested in Suzuki because of his pull %, chase rate and defense. 

They were just talking on MLB Sirius about a guy half of us traded Duran for last winter: Isaac Paredes and his dead pull fly ball profile. Supposedly, of his 25 HRs, he didn't even hit one to CF. "And he doesn't strike out a lot, and draws his walks, with a .360 OBP."

But where would we play a guy like that? (how about, as much as possible)

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

They were just talking on MLB Sirius about a guy half of us traded Duran for last winter: Isaac Paredes and his dead pull fly ball profile. Supposedly, of his 25 HRs, he didn't even hit one to CF. "And he doesn't strike out a lot, and draws his walks, with a .360 OBP."

But where would we play a guy like that? (how about, as much as possible)

Paredes only has one year left of control. Maybe HOU would still want to deal him for somebody? 

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Paredes only has one year left of control. Maybe HOU would still want to deal him for somebody? 

With a lot of the position players already set, and a team that looks like its going to noodlebat the season away 2 years running, we may need to add a lot of production in only one spot, and Im not sure that Paredes is enough.  But we'll see.  Im open to Paredes if we dont noodle it down the drain this week.

[mvp 78]

49 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

With a lot of the position players already set, and a team that looks like its going to noodlebat the season away 2 years running, we may need to add a lot of production in only one spot, and Im not sure that Paredes is enough.  But we'll see.  Im open to Paredes if we dont noodle it down the drain this week.

Paredes would be great at Fenway.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Paredes would be great at Fenway.

That remains to be seen.  I recall seeing similar charts for the Panda.  But more importantly, where

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That remains to be seen.  I recall seeing similar charts for the Panda.  But more importantly, where

in the bamboo forest.

[notin]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Trading Duran still leaves us with Anthony-Rafaela-Abreu in the OF and Yoshida/White/Jones/Campbell as depth.

We also have Story or Mead at DH, along with Gasper, Romy and others.

We'd need at least 2 trades to make room for Aroz.

Story won’t be the DH.  It will be hard enough to get him to move to 2b.

I do think a lot of folks are forgetting the Sox traded for Curtis Mead to fulfill some of their RHH needs…

[notin]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Paredes would be great at Fenway.

Before the season, I suggested Paredes, or Miguel Vargas for the same reason.  Doubtful Vargas can be had now…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Story won’t be the DH.  It will be hard enough to get him to move to 2b.

I do think a lot of folks are forgetting the Sox traded for Curtis Mead to fulfill some of their RHH needs…

I've been talking Mead a lot. He would make more sense as the DH with Story at 2B, but it would also be nice to have someone to play 2B when (not if) Story gets hurt.

I see Mead as a major bat addition. He could easily be our 2nd or 3rd best batter in 2027.

A Duran-Story platoon might make some sense, but I can't see Story accepting a 30% game start plan. Anthony could DH v RHPs as Duran plays LF and Mead could DH v LHPs, when Story plays 2B. That's an expensive platoon and does not promise much better hitting than some sort of platoon involving Gasper or Casas v RHPs and Romy. Jones or Sogard vs LHPs

[notin]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I've been talking Mead a lot. He would make more sense as the DH with Story at 2B, but it would also be nice to have someone to play 2B when (not if) Story gets hurt.

I see Mead as a major bat addition. He could easily be our 2nd or 3rd best batter in 2027.

A Duran-Story platoon might make some sense, but I can't see Story accepting a 30% game start plan. Anthony could DH v RHPs as Duran plays LF and Mead could DH v LHPs, when Story plays 2B. That's an expensive platoon and does not promise much better hitting than some sort of platoon involving Gasper or Casas v RHPs and Romy. Jones or Sogard vs LHPs

In an ideal world, they still might Sox field a lineup with Rutschman (C), Contreras (1b), Story (2b), Arias (SS), Durbin (3b), Anthony (LF), Rafaela (CF), Abreu (RF) and Mead (DH).

But they need to move Duran…

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

In an ideal world, they still might Sox field a lineup with Rutschman (C), Contreras (1b), Story (2b), Arias (SS), Durbin (3b), Anthony (LF), Rafaela (CF), Abreu (RF) and Mead (DH).

But they need to move Duran…

Agreed, and if they move Duran, it's easier to keep Yoshida around as the back-up LF'er and DH. We can't trade him anyway, so why duplicate the value vs RHPs by Duran & Yoshida?

Story would offer depth at SS.

Mead would offer depth at 2B and 1B.

Yoshida LF and DH.

The drop off in offense might be close to negligible, especially if it's Story going to the IL (the most likely of the bunch to get hurt.)

Sogard can be our next Holt.

AAA could see Jo Garcia at C, Casas at 1B, Seigler at 2B, Monasterio at 3B and Cheng at SS. That's decent extended depth. Jones and or White offer depth in the OF- both out of options, and all the more reason to trade Duran. AAA could see Ward, Eaton and Campbell.

 

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, notin said:

I do think a lot of folks are forgetting the Sox traded for Curtis Mead to fulfill some of their RHH needs…

The only opening I see is at DH.  And even at DH, we have Yoshida and Duran.  Even at DH, the baseline will be Yoshida's 111 OPS+.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

The only opening I see is at DH.  And even at DH, we have Yoshida and Duran.  Even at DH, the baseline will be Yoshida's 111 OPS+.

Mead should be better than both Duran and Yoshida.

A Gasper-Romy or Gasper-Jones platoon could reach a 111 OPS+.

[JoeBrady]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

A Gasper-Romy or Gasper-Jones platoon could reach a 111 OPS+.

It could be, but that would require getting rid of Yoshida.  If they are moving Yoshida for like $4M worth of savings, I'd rather go with Yoshida.  From a hitting perspective, he is a more proven product.

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

It could be, but that would require getting rid of Yoshida.  If they are moving Yoshida for like $4M worth of savings, I'd rather go with Yoshida.  From a hitting perspective, he is a more proven product.

$4M is not muc- agreed. $6M maybe. If we avoid paying Duran $8-9M, that's $13-15M and enough to make an impact singing. 

We might regret either or both choices, and I fully understand the "proven" point you make: bot have also proven they can be much less than wat we hoped for.

I don't really want to DFA Gasper and Jones or Romy. Romy as proven himself, too. I like White, too, and I just think the possible drop off to them plus te $14-15M saved would create a net plus and allow us to arckeep everyone, add 3-4 new players and maybe even add Brannon, Jo Garcia and or Wehunt to the 40.

I'm done hoping Duran regains, I wish him well, elsewhere.

Yoshida is okay, but if we keep Duran we have Duran/Anthony in LF and Mead/Story at 2B that offer solid DH options better than Gasper/Romy-Jones. I'd prefer Yoshida over Duran. 

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

That remains to be seen.  I recall seeing similar charts for the Panda.  But more importantly, where

Pablo Sandoval got fat and stopped being a productive MLBer in Boston. A younger Pablo may have done just fine. Paredes is more Adam Duvall than Pablo Sandoval though. 

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, notin said:

But they need to move Duran…

They can get some MiLB arms for him.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

$4M is not muc- agreed. $6M maybe. If we avoid paying Duran $8-9M, that's $13-15M and enough to make an impact singing. 

At $6M, not totally out of the question.  But let's break it down into two separate equations.  Would you prefer a $22M Aroz, or a '$6M' Yoshida?  If one ignores his walk year, then Aroz' last three seasons yields a 114 OPS+.  Masa's career is 109.

And if Duran is DFAd, what's the plan if one of our OFs gets hurt?  At a minimum of 1000 IPs from 2024-2026, Aroz is 40th out of 40 in OAA, FRV, and 36th in DRS.  Duran can play LF & CF.  And since Ceddanne can play RF, we have all 3 positions covered.

[mvp 78]

Curtis Mead, get ready to learn LF, buddy.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

At $6M, not totally out of the question.  But let's break it down into two separate equations.  Would you prefer a $22M Aroz, or a '$6M' Yoshida?  If one ignores his walk year, then Aroz' last three seasons yields a 114 OPS+.  Masa's career is 109.

I'd prefer Yoshida with one year left, and it's not close, even if we subtract $6M from what Aroz gets.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

And if Duran is DFAd, what's the plan if one of our OFs gets hurt?  At a minimum of 1000 IPs from 2024-2026, Aroz is 40th out of 40 in OAA, FRV, and 36th in DRS.  Duran can play LF & CF.  And since Ceddanne can play RF, we have all 3 positions covered.

I don't think he gets DFA'd. He might get non tendered, but I think we sign and trade him.

I'd prefer Yoshida-Jones platoon as the back up LF'er and White for CF, Campbell for RF.

Use the $8-9M for adding better players than we can without the $9M.

It's not even a close call for me. Trade him. If nobody wants him- non tender him. I'm not leaving it to an ard that gives him $8-9M.

[mvp 78]

Now that Cora isn't here, maybe there's more of an appetite to move on from Duran? 

[drewski6]

The same crew that told us we didnt need offensive additions last year , are here to tell us we dont any offensive additions this coming year.

The 23rd ranked offense just frankly has no places for anyone to break in.

Bros, even Durbins job isnt guaranteed next year.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

The same crew that told us we didnt need offensive additions last year , are here to tell us we dont any offensive additions this coming year.

The 23rd ranked offense just frankly has no places for anyone to break in.

Bros, even Durbins job isnt guaranteed next year.

I'll take Suzuki if Breslow would sign him. Not much else available via FA. Would need to acquire other starters via trade. Harder to project those guys. I know there were talks about trading for Elly at the deadline that didn't include Arias. Who else was included? IDK. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

The same crew that told us we didnt need offensive additions last year , are here to tell us we dont any offensive additions this coming year.

The 23rd ranked offense just frankly has no places for anyone to break in.

Bros, even Durbins job isnt guaranteed next year.

I think notin was the only poster who was satisfied with our offense set up for opening day. Many others wanted better offense but realized we chose to make further gains in other areas to perhaps offset what we knew would be a less than ideal offense.

We also made a major trade during the season for Mead. The fact that he got hurt on day one doesn't mean an improvement was not made for 2017 and beyond.

We then made a bold and expensive deal to upgrade our Catching position by what looked to be an estimated .100+ OPS (over Narvaez and Wong.) That has been slow to materialize, but AR did better Narvaez's OPS by 153 points. Maybe next season he can hit over .780 or even .800.

We might expect double the PAs from Anthony, but someone else might get hurt, so maybe this should not be a consideration.

Looking at age-related bell curve estimations, these players should improve- stay the same - or get worse:

Improve?

.851 Mead

.773 Abreu

.761 Rafaela

.735 Anthony

.710 Durbin

.688 Rutschman

.727 Sogard, .993 Jones, .727 Seigler

__________________

Same?

.627 Duran

.823 Gasper

.655 Wong, ,665 Monasterio, .572 Romy, .560 Eaton

___________________________

Worse?

.901 Contreras

.621 Story

.746 Yoshida

.679 White

________________________

I'd love to see us add a big bat (LH'd.)

I just think replacing or bringing back Gray is #1.

#2 might be a pipedream but Morejon would be great.

#3 would be an upgraded bat, but after #1 and #2, I'm not sure Brez will have enough for the type of offensive upgrade many feel is essential.

We could trust in Crochet to replace Gray and hope for better rotational health, but the league trend is for more and more SP'er IL stints and longer ones.