Breslow and Henry built the Red Sox built to beat the dodgers

[Hugh2]

On 8/18/2026 at 12:03 PM, mvp 78 said:

Per FanGraphs:

3.1% win division

7.0% win WS

It's more likely that they win the World Series than win the division. 

What was our playoff odds two months ago?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

17 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

What was our playoff odds two months ago?

Anyone back then who thought the Red Sox would make the playoffs was odd.

[Hugh2]

30 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Anyone back then who thought the Red Sox would make the playoffs was odd.

I don't think anyone thought they would make it, but there's a difference between zero chance and a small chance. I don't disagree it's more probable than not they get into the playoffs via a wild card rather than a division win but this team has shown us they get hot and I don't see nothing wrong with gunning for the division. 

[moonslav59]

54 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I don't think anyone thought they would make it, but there's a difference between zero chance and a small chance. I don't disagree it's more probable than not they get into the playoffs via a wild card rather than a division win but this team has shown us they get hot and I don't see nothing wrong with gunning for the division. 

I caught flack for posting the WC standings when we sucked and pointing out we were just 3-5 GB. I'm not saying I was optimistic, but 3-5 GB in May and early June is far from "out of it."

[Hugh2]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I caught flack for posting the WC standings when we sucked and pointing out we were just 3-5 GB. I'm not saying I was optimistic, but 3-5 GB in May and early June is far from "out of it."

Not from me. 

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Not from me. 

To be fair, MVP thinks looking at WC standings before Memorial Day is absurd. I'm not sure what's so magical about one day in the schedule.

A few others mentioned 6 teams between us and the WC3 slot as some sort of insurmountable aspect with 100 games to go. We passed em all in 3 weeks.

Funny, right? They thought 3 months was not long enough.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

I don't think anyone thought they would make it, but there's a difference between zero chance and a small chance. I don't disagree it's more probable than not they get into the playoffs via a wild card rather than a division win but this team has shown us they get hot and I don't see nothing wrong with gunning for the division. 

I wonder what the percentage chance was at its lowest point....

[drewski6]

34 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I caught flack for posting the WC standings when we sucked and pointing out we were just 3-5 GB. I'm not saying I was optimistic, but 3-5 GB in May and early June is far from "out of it."

yes, people underestimate how fluid it is.

[Hugh2]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I wonder what the percentage chance was at its lowest point....

I don't recall.  But lets say it was 1% the way I look at that is 1 times out of every 100 in that scenario a team comes back and makes the playoffs.  The last two months the Sox have shown us that they are probably that 1 team out of a 100. 

Of course they haven't made the playoffs yet, their odds sit at 91%.  So if you could play this season 100 times from this point on roughly 9 times the Sox ain't making the playoffs. 

We've all lived through the 2011 collapse, it can happen.  

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

I don't recall.  But lets say it was 1% the way I look at that is 1 times out of every 100 in that scenario a team comes back and makes the playoffs.  The last two months the Sox have shown us that they are probably that 1 team out of a 100. 

Of course they haven't made the playoffs yet, their odds sit at 91%.  So if you could play this season 100 times from this point on roughly 9 times the Sox ain't making the playoffs. 

We've all lived through the 2011 collapse, it can happen.  

i dont think it was ever 1%. I was thinking like 9% at its lowest, maybe 7%.  But agree with your main point that people underestimate how often things with low percentages chances happen.  Most years one team makes the playoffs whose chance of making the playoffs was very low at a specific point in time.

[drewski6]

If every day you had a 2% chance of dropping dead, you wouldnt make it very long.

[moonslav59]

On 8/21/2026 at 9:45 AM, drewski6 said:

yes, people underestimate how fluid it is.

The think that got me, we flipped the WC standings in just 2-3 weeks, and many felt 3-4 months was not enough time.

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The think that got me, we flipped the WC standings in just 2-3 weeks, and many felt 3-4 months was not enough time.

This is a good "yes and" and a valid contribution to the discussion, but I was thinking more on the individual level.  For example, 2 weeks ago you would have asked me who goes down for Story and Roman - and I would have said Siegler and Gasper.  Now Im not sure.  Monasterio and Sogard appears to have cooled off and Siegler and Gasper seem hot right now.  So Im not really a fan of....beginning part of the season, focusing on who is better.  Oh we dont need this guy because we have x,y,z.  All teh trade Masa's there was a time this season and last that he was useful.  So Im kind of a less of a quality over quantity guy than Ive been in the past.  And now Im kind of like hoard as many as you can.  Have Story, Monasterio, Siegler, Durbin, Arias, Sogard, Romy, IKF, Cheng, Mead....Cuz you dont know who is going to fall out (for injury or bad play) and who is going to emerge as useful...And you can absolutely have a guy who struggled all year but got hot at the right time and now he's hitting clean up for you in the playoffs and at beginning of season he was very far down on list of guys who you would have thought would have been a key part of your playoff team.

Im a fan of exploiting hot streaks and maintaining flexibility.  So thats moving guys around to fit in the hot bat.  Im not a play your SS at SS.  And Im not about deciding who your team is and jettisoning the rest to chase max efficiency.  

[mvp 78]

All hot streaks eventually come to an end. Now that the Sox are reaching September, they need to figure out what the real rotation needs to be down the stretch. They are going to run out time messing around with hot and cold streaks. 

They held onto Gasper too long the last go around and he had a 542 OPS over has last 25 games. Sogard can play several positions and has a AAAA bat. Monasterio's glove is worse than Sogie's, but has a marginally better bat. Seigler seems to be a high energy guy and hits RHP well. 

If Adley is ok, they will send Gasper down when Anthony comes back. For Story, they'll send Seigler down. If they bring IKF back, maybe Monasterio? 

[drewski6]

32 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

All hot streaks eventually come to an end. Now that the Sox are reaching September, they need to figure out what the real rotation needs to be down the stretch. They are going to run out time messing around with hot and cold streaks. 

They held onto Gasper too long the last go around and he had a 542 OPS over has last 25 games. Sogard can play several positions and has a AAAA bat. Monasterio's glove is worse than Sogie's, but has a marginally better bat. Seigler seems to be a high energy guy and hits RHP well. 

If Adley is ok, they will send Gasper down when Anthony comes back. For Story, they'll send Seigler down. If they bring IKF back, maybe Monasterio? 

Nope. They will postpone making a decision as long as possible and then finally make a decision when they have to, at that time.  The plan is to be flexible.  This is your prediction.  It may be the likeliest scenario.  But its not "the plan",  Inflexible plans and high level rules like "never do x " and cliches are just attempts to simplify the complex.

I knew Farrell sucked the first time I heard him talk because I heard him use 3 cliches in his first 3 sentences.  So I said here we have a regurgitator and not a thinker.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Nope. They will postpone making a decision as long as possible and then finally make a decision when they have to, at that time.  The plan is to be flexible.  This is your prediction.  It may be the likeliest scenario.  But its not "the plan",  Inflexible plans and high level rules like "never do x " and cliches are just attempts to simplify the complex.

I knew Farrell sucked the first time I heard him talk because I heard him use 3 cliches in his first 3 sentences.  So I said here we have a regurgitator and not a thinker.

The first decision is tomorrow most likely. Maybe the first two! That's why we're talking about it. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The first decision is tomorrow most likely. Maybe the first two! That's why we're talking about it. 

My wife's taking my son to the game. I decided to stay home (no pet sitter).

[sk7326]

On 8/17/2026 at 10:54 AM, bobo52 said:

Red Sox are built to beat the Dodgers.  They have 4-5 lefty starters in Tolle, Sandoval, Suarez, Bennet and Crochet.  The only righty is Gray.  Just look at the Dodger splits below.  Ohtani is almost mortal with an 885 OPS.  Freeman is around league average against lefties at 719 and Mookie sucks at 589.  Dalton Rushing also is much worse against lefties at 692 OPS and Will Smith is even worse at 434.  

I think the Dodgers  picked up Skubal who is a lefty because they just didnt want the Brewers to get him so they dont have to face him.

I will also point out that the Dodgers will soon be on a big decline.  Betts already declining at 33 (they have to pay him $30 million a year until 2033),

Freeman is 36 and Muncy is 35.  

Ohtani struggling with injuries is 32 but they need to pay him $46 million a year (CBT payroll which also happens to be the right number) until 2033 when he will be 38.

Dodgers age is showing now as they are 5 and 10 in August.  A long season is tough on 35 and 36 year old guys.  

These will to just easily be replaced in free agency either - the payroll is already massively bloated and they have to keep paying underperforming players like Betts for a long time.  

 

2026 MLB Hitting OPS Splits

Dodgers 

 

Dodgers

Starters

Hitter	Bats	OPS vs RHP	OPS vs LHP
Shohei Ohtani	L	.915	.885
Andy Pages	R	.751	.880
Freddie Freeman	L	.943	.719
Max Muncy	L	.852	.851
Mookie Betts	R	.749	.589
Kyle Tucker	L	.688	.763
Teoscar Hernández	R	.708	.725
Tommy Edman	S	.928	.848
Dalton Rushing	L	.836	.692
STARTING 9 AVERAGE		.804	.731

Reserves

Hitter	Bats	OPS vs RHP	OPS vs LHP
Alex Call	R	.536	.875
Miguel Rojas	R	.533	.852
Enrique Hernández	R	.750	.761
Ben Rortvedt	L	—	—

I am not sure you can plan too much for that.  It's baseball - the Blue Jays take a slightly larger lead from third base and they win the world series.  

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

All hot streaks eventually come to an end.

The biggest mistakes that rotisserie players make is picking up guys in a hot streak, but don't have the history to support it.  If a player is usually a .650 hitter, then come October, he will likely be a .650 hitter, regardless of whether or not he had a good week in August.  Younger players can develop, but their supporting metrics will still rise to the top.  6 HRs in July, with a 35/4 K/W, will still like yield weak results.

[drewski6]

56 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The first decision is tomorrow most likely. Maybe the first two! That's why we're talking about it. 

Which one?  Story? You sure Siegler going down?  A week ago, I was.  Plans change.  Im less sure now.

[drewski6]

47 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

My wife's taking my son to the game. I decided to stay home (no pet sitter).

Didnt ask me.

[drewski6]

7 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

The biggest mistakes that rotisserie players make is picking up guys in a hot streak, but don't have the history to support it.  If a player is usually a .650 hitter, then come October, he will likely be a .650 hitter, regardless of whether or not he had a good week in August.  Younger players can develop, but their supporting metrics will still rise to the top.  6 HRs in July, with a 35/4 K/W, will still like yield weak results.

No dude, streaks dont stop happening because the playoffs begin.  You are what you are at that time.  These things are dynamic/ever-changing/fluid.

Guys who are in a season long funk dont magically snap out of it.  Stay flexible.  Ride the wave of momentum.

[drewski6]

Gasper is too hot to bench right now, and if he doesnt cool down by the playoffs he will need to be in the lineup.