Breslow and Henry built the Red Sox built to beat the dodgers

[Hugh2]

On 8/18/2026 at 12:03 PM, mvp 78 said:

Per FanGraphs:

3.1% win division

7.0% win WS

It's more likely that they win the World Series than win the division. 

What was our playoff odds two months ago?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

17 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

What was our playoff odds two months ago?

Anyone back then who thought the Red Sox would make the playoffs was odd.

[Hugh2]

30 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Anyone back then who thought the Red Sox would make the playoffs was odd.

I don't think anyone thought they would make it, but there's a difference between zero chance and a small chance. I don't disagree it's more probable than not they get into the playoffs via a wild card rather than a division win but this team has shown us they get hot and I don't see nothing wrong with gunning for the division. 

[moonslav59]

54 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I don't think anyone thought they would make it, but there's a difference between zero chance and a small chance. I don't disagree it's more probable than not they get into the playoffs via a wild card rather than a division win but this team has shown us they get hot and I don't see nothing wrong with gunning for the division. 

I caught flack for posting the WC standings when we sucked and pointing out we were just 3-5 GB. I'm not saying I was optimistic, but 3-5 GB in May and early June is far from "out of it."

[Hugh2]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I caught flack for posting the WC standings when we sucked and pointing out we were just 3-5 GB. I'm not saying I was optimistic, but 3-5 GB in May and early June is far from "out of it."

Not from me. 

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Not from me. 

To be fair, MVP thinks looking at WC standings before Memorial Day is absurd. I'm not sure what's so magical about one day in the schedule.

A few others mentioned 6 teams between us and the WC3 slot as some sort of insurmountable aspect with 100 games to go. We passed em all in 3 weeks.

Funny, right? They thought 3 months was not long enough.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

I don't think anyone thought they would make it, but there's a difference between zero chance and a small chance. I don't disagree it's more probable than not they get into the playoffs via a wild card rather than a division win but this team has shown us they get hot and I don't see nothing wrong with gunning for the division. 

I wonder what the percentage chance was at its lowest point....

[drewski6]

34 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I caught flack for posting the WC standings when we sucked and pointing out we were just 3-5 GB. I'm not saying I was optimistic, but 3-5 GB in May and early June is far from "out of it."

yes, people underestimate how fluid it is.

[Hugh2]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I wonder what the percentage chance was at its lowest point....

I don't recall.  But lets say it was 1% the way I look at that is 1 times out of every 100 in that scenario a team comes back and makes the playoffs.  The last two months the Sox have shown us that they are probably that 1 team out of a 100. 

Of course they haven't made the playoffs yet, their odds sit at 91%.  So if you could play this season 100 times from this point on roughly 9 times the Sox ain't making the playoffs. 

We've all lived through the 2011 collapse, it can happen.  

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

I don't recall.  But lets say it was 1% the way I look at that is 1 times out of every 100 in that scenario a team comes back and makes the playoffs.  The last two months the Sox have shown us that they are probably that 1 team out of a 100. 

Of course they haven't made the playoffs yet, their odds sit at 91%.  So if you could play this season 100 times from this point on roughly 9 times the Sox ain't making the playoffs. 

We've all lived through the 2011 collapse, it can happen.  

i dont think it was ever 1%. I was thinking like 9% at its lowest, maybe 7%.  But agree with your main point that people underestimate how often things with low percentages chances happen.  Most years one team makes the playoffs whose chance of making the playoffs was very low at a specific point in time.

[drewski6]

If every day you had a 2% chance of dropping dead, you wouldnt make it very long.