A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[mvp 78]

2014: 3.77 FIP

2015: 3.62 FIP

2016: hot start pitching in pitcher's park in SD with newly developed cutter, 2.47 ERA

There was a very reasonable expectation that there would be regression for Pom.

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That's all we talked about at the time of the trade. Not my fault if you were somewhere else at the time.

I heard the talk by a few. If talk was fact, just because it turned out to be partially true, then what?

[mvp 78]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

I heard the talk by a few. If talk was fact, just because it turned out to be partially true, then what?

4.59 ERA for BOS in 2016.

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

2014: 3.77 FIP

2015: 3.62 FIP

2016: hot start pitching in pitcher's park in SD with newly developed cutter, 2.47 ERA

There was a very reasonable expectation that there would be regression for Pom.

Some pitchers develop a new pitch and improve beyond a half season.

[mvp 78]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Some pitchers develop a new pitch and improve beyond a half season.

And lots of people were saying that MLB would catch up to him. It did.

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

4.59 ERA for BOS in 2016.

If you meant he wasn't going to keep up the first half pace for the remaining part of 20216 and beyond, yes, but I don't think anyone expected a 4.60 ERA and FIP, either.

3.32 in 2017 does not look like regression.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

And lots of people were saying that MLB would catch up to him. It did.

True, but that's not the same as saying this...

....a pitcher that was clearly going to regress immediately.

[Duran Is The Man]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

So, Cy Youngs:

Schlitter AL

Misiorowski NL

MVP

Yordan AL

Ohtani NL (PC-A is close)

LOL...PCA wins and Ohtani is not even close.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

LOL...PCA wins and Ohtani is not even close.

PCA .942> Ohatnai .902, yes

But, add 86 IP at 1.79 ERA and it's close.

If you add the BWAR, PCA wins easily 8.6 to 6.5.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

LOL...PCA wins and Ohtani is not even close.

On bb-ref's page of batting leaders, PCA leads the NL in 24 categories and Ohtani leads in zero. 

Nothing against DHs like Papi or Yordan, but if the comp is a far better hitter and also the best defensive player in baseball at his position -- all season -- it's no contest.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Just making up stuff right now? 

You want me to re-check the ERA & IPs he had in AA?  It's been 80 years since anyone ever asked me to re-check my calculations.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

And lots of people were saying that MLB would catch up to him. It did.

That depends on 'catch up' and 'regress'.  

• 2014: 3.77 FIP
• 2015: 3.62 FIP
• 2016:  2.47 ER

If you suggesting that the 2.47 would regress closer to the 3.6-3.70 range, that seems fair.  But that range is still pretty good.  The ERA+ range for those 2.5 years is probably in the 125-130 range.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

That depends on 'catch up' and 'regress'.  

• 2014: 3.77 FIP
• 2015: 3.62 FIP
• 2016:  2.47 ER

If you suggesting that the 2.47 would regress closer to the 3.6-3.70 range, that seems fair.  But that range is still pretty good.  The ERA+ range for those 2.5 years is probably in the 125-130 range.

He regressed to the point where his total ERA for the season wound up at 3.32, which trends towards his prior two FIP years. 

With BOS: 4.24 ERA, 4.41 FIP

He fell off after getting here. Only stop worse for him was COL. 

[JoeBrady]

15 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

On bb-ref's page of batting leaders, PCA leads the NL in 24 categories and Ohtani leads in zero. 

Nothing against DHs like Papi or Yordan, but if the comp is a far better hitter and also the best defensive player in baseball at his position -- all season -- it's no contest.

It's no contest on paper, but MLB tends to award things to the bigger names.  It shouldn't be, but I won't be shocked if Ohtani gets it.